Anyone want or care about a Charlie prediction?
My personal thoughts – for what it is worth, unless something changes, 2012 will be just fine and I personally believe while it may or may not be as good as 2011, it will end up above that average return they (NOAA) predict!
Right now, they are predicting "average" Chinook returns for 2012. I can see and “tend” to agree with that prediction; however, if nothing changes (anymore than it has) – it could very well end up being better than that average predicted. With Chinook, it really does depend on whether we have a warm PDO, or a cold PDO. Chinook migrate, live, and FEED inside the confines of the Continental Shelf – so, those warm El Niño waters (and associated weaker upwellings just experienced) doesn’t bring those colder waters into the shelf. That does affect the Chinook food supply and has to affect survival rates (and size).
Compare ocean conditions the smolts are exposed, from the time they enter the ocean until scheduled to return. With Columbia, when NOAA talks about ocean conditions and survival, it is all about that Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which BTW is currently in process of changing. That number of smolts Columbia basin puts out, the better ocean conditions (colder PDO) = more food = larger survival rates = bigger returns.
Now concerning the Fraser returns, I just have to throw this in. When DFO talks about Chinook returning, they seem to continually refer to “Very poor marine survival continues to be a concern.” Yep, I can see where poor survival might be a concern! What DFO isn’t telling is way whenever that statement is made, it seems to be in direct proportion with those smolts having to swim through all those fish farms! And, they don’t seem very interested in spending money on researching the “very poor marine survival”! I guess from all those testimonies starting to come out in the Cohen Commission, we are starting to find out why? Just my fish farm plug, for the day!
Ocean conditions are good and remain good, with the exception of a small El Niño from autumn of 2009 lasting through April 2010. Not sure,how that small El Niño actually affected those out-migrating smolts during that timeframe that typically reduces survival rates; however, it was small. Those warm waters certainly do affect the food supply for our Chinook on their feeding grounds. Our Chinook feeding grounds are within the Continental Shelf, within the Gulf of Alaska, a cold PDO is a good thing – warm PDO is bad. The Alaskan Chinook migrate further north, so for them things are reversed. A cold PDO is a bad thing, and warm PDO is good. However, with Columbia releasing more smolts, that should help offset that small” El Niño effect. The fish on the feeding grounds that are the returning in 2012, they probably just followed their food to the colder waters and that should not have had that much effect on them. It may or may not be equal to this year - but overall, unless something changes, the 2012 return will be just fine!
Beyond 2012 – I take no bets! The PDO is in a warming stage, oceanconditions are changing in favor of Alaska Chinook. Right now - Only Mother Nature and the ocean has the answer beyond 2012! PDO shifting to warmer = good for Alaska, bad for our Chinook! The good thing we have going for us Columbia basin hatcheries are currently releasing more Chinook smolts than ever.
Just my 2 cents!
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/g-forecast.cfm