And in that spirit of getting back on topic...
Based on what I know, and with the intent of having people actually show up to a meeting with the basic facts in place, and able to actually offer their advice on options that are likely to be presented without having to start form scratch, here's a
summary of what you will likely be asked to consider on Friday based on my potentially limited knowledge of the subject matter.
Just for laughs, and hopefully to get a conversation started rather than to light the flame throwers, I'll also offer my personal opinion on the utility of some of the options...
- In early April, DFO provided information to the SFAB that specific runs of both Fraser River and Skeena\Nass chinook were suffering from historically low escapements over the past few years, and would require a decrease on exploitation rates (catch\escapement) in the range of 25% - 30% from all fisheries from a 2013 - 2016 based period in order to address this trend.
- The stocks that the Victoria area will be specifically asked to address in 2018 are the ones indicated in the meeting notice. Fraser River Fall Whites, Summer 4.2's and spring 4.1's.
- There are only a limited number of tools we have to sort this out - time and area closures, bag and possession limits, size limits, MSF; and hybrids of these. Here's what they mean to me:
- Time and area closures - Just what they sound like and I'd say a non-starter. Think about whats left after we dealt with SRKW's. Don't want to go there imho.
- Bag & possession limits - seems like a simple relationship but its not. Cutting the bag limit in half doesn't always lead to a 50% reduction in ER. Depends on the ratio of day anglers to multi day anglers, actual cpue and a bunch of other things. IMHO - not desirable as it cuts in to expectation and opportunity.
- Size limits - the slots we already have in place. These are based on the relationship between size and age in salmon. So, 67cm protects most 3 year old fish, and 85 cm protects most 4 year old and almost all 5 year old fish. All chinook salmon in any given run return to spawn at different ages, but most runs have a predominant age class of spwaners. Hence Spring 4.1's and summer 5.2's etc. Can be one of the least painful options when you consider the average size of fish you catch in any given month (67cm = about 6 - 8 lbs and 85 cm = 15 - 20 lbs) and provide an option to preserve bag limits that consist of two fish, especially when "hybridized" with MSF.
- MSF - "Mark Selective Fisheries" in DFO speak, simply put, means keeping adipose fin clipped hatchery fish and releasing unmarked fish. Its utility depends entirely on the number of marked fish that are available in the area you fish when you are fishing it (the "mark rate"). So, in the JdF I have experienced mark rates as high as over 90% in the Nov to May period (and obviously it varies both day to day and location to location on any given day) but in the June to Sept period its way lower and I don't think my experience is atypical. The data supports it. The risk associated with MSF is that if there aren't a lot of marked fish present, the release mortalities can actually end up being greater than if you had a non MSF fishery in place. Obviously in order to be a viable option on its own we also need to move to mass marking in Canadian production hatcheries immediately, and move towards increased marked fish production in the near future.
- Hybrid -what we currently live with in JdF - a slot limit with the opportunity to keep marked hatchery fish greater than the slot size. Do I love it? Nope. Does it preserve the opportunty to keep 2 fish, and based on 85 cm provides me a decent shot a a few fish to take home on any given day? Yup, it does. That's why we currently have it in place. Your local SFAB reps back in the day "consulted it out" and it was agreed that it was the least painful of the options presented that would achieve the objective set forth in terms of reducing the ER on the stocks of concern.
So, I assume that on Friday you'll be asked to choose your poison and offer advice ( in the form of a motion?) to the local chair that he can then provide to DFO, although I'm not 100% clear how that will happen give the timelines. I guess we'll find out on Friday.
My bet is that a time extension of the hybrid options we currently have in place will be on the table ie - extend 85 cm to end of July. If that is indeed the case then compared to the others
- and although I'd prefer to have things go back to just 2 per day 4 in possession all year long - its what I'd support. Why?
- It maintains the opportunity to keep 2 chinook per day which is an important principle for me.
- The last few years I have found a good number of chinook in the 80 to 85 cm range in JdF during the summer and to me they represent a decent fish which I don't mind keeping.
- Maybe I just suck at getting the big ones, but I don't find I get a lot of fish much bigger than 85 cm these days. I wonder if that's why the restrictions are being put in place on the larger fish?
Now, that being said, I totally get it and agree that if we can eventually persuade DFO to actually solve the problems with Fraser chinook abundance by dealing with predation (ie seals), fixing habitat, providing strategic enhancement, dealing with other in river issues etc,...etc...then all of this stuff would be unnecessary. Don't need to be reminded of that as I deal with it pretty much every day on your behalf, and am as frustrated as anyone else about the historic lack of progress. Unfortunately we are right now placed in a position that the options presented above is what we'll be talking about on Friday. I don't like it any more than any of you, but its reality.
So, any other thoughts to get us prepared to have a meaningful discussion Friday and not have to start from scratch?
CP