It’s not looking good for Fraser River salmon returns in 2021. Noted below is the Sockeye and Pink salmon return estimates and the numbers appear to be low as noted but then the fish have to get past the Big Bar slide too..
Two weeks ago the 5/2 springs run was at …3 (yes .3) and the average returns number is 26.2 at the same time. We haven’t been able to catch 5/2 fish in area 20 for over 8 years so where are they disappearing too or who is catching them?
Here is the latest up date from DFO.
The landslide at Big Bar in the Fraser River upstream of Lillooet will continue to be an impediment to upstream migration for Sockeye, Pink, Chinook, Coho and Steelhead destined for spawning habitats upstream of the slide. Significant work has occurred over the winter and spring months to further improve passage for fish, combined with robust assessment programs to evaluate passage success, as well as mitigation measures such as fish transport and brood stock collection for enhancement purposes. Additional information can be found at the following link.
http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/pacific-smon-pacifique/big-bar-landslide-eboulement/index-eng.html
To put the Sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one in four chance that the actual number of returning Sockeye will be at or below 624,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four chance that the actual number of returning Sockeye will be at or above 2,775,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 1,330,000 fish for all management groups. This return is well below the cycle average. The largest contributing stocks for the 2021 return are expected to be the Chilko, Quesnel and Late Stuart Sockeye; all Summer run stocks that spawn above the Big Bar landslide.
The Pink salmon run size forecast suggests there is a one in four chance that the actual number of returning pink salmon will be at or below 2,229,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four chance that the actual number of returning pink salmon will be at or above 4,051,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 3,009,000 Pink salmon. This is well below the long term average of 11.5 million.