Salmon at an "Over abundance" in Pacific Ocean

[SerengetiGuide]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...th-salmon-as-population-soars/article1740524/

North Pacific ‘overcrowded’ with salmon as population soars

More pink, chum and sockeye salmon are in the North Pacific than have ever been seen before, around twice as much as in the 1950s, a Canada-U.S. research team says in a just published article on historical trends.

Around 718 million adult salmon returned to their freshwater homes in 2005, the most recent year that figures were available, the research team says. The evidence indicates the ocean is becoming “overcrowded with salmon,” said Randall Peterman, the Canada Research Chair in Fisheries Risk Assessment and Management, and a member of the research team.

The research team, however, sees trouble on the horizon.

The robust adult salmon population has been boosted by the annual release of about five billion juvenile salmon from hatcheries, mostly in Japan and Alaska, Prof. Peterman of Simon Fraser University said Sunday in an interview.

Adult hatchery salmon now account for at least 20 per cent of the total adult salmon production and continue to rise. For some salmon, the percentage is significantly higher. In Asia, 76 per cent of all adult chum salmon from 1990 to 2005 came from salmon hatcheries.

Unless international agreements are developed to manage production levels, hatchery fish may dominate the ocean, Prof. Peterman said.

The research offers a startling contrast to recent headlines indicating the disappearance of salmon. A federal commission of inquiry is currently investigating the decline in the salmon population on Canada’s West Coast.

Both perspectives are valid, the research study says. Prof. Peterman said the international trend toward increased abundance is not reflected in every region of the North Pacific. Even though the total number of wild pink, chum and sockeye salmon in the North Pacific is at a historic high, the population in areas such as B.C.’s Fraser River remains of concern, he said.

“Indeed, many pink, chum and sockeye salmon are at very low levels and that is true for the Fraser sockeye salmon in particular,” he said. “But if you look across the North Pacific, to Asia and other parts of North America, the total salmon abundance is quite high. Conditions have improved for wild salmon to the point we are seeing record numbers of pink salmon. This is something that most people don’t recognize,” Prof. Peterman said.

He declined to speculate on the significance of the unprecedented high number of salmon – 34 million – that returned to the Fraser River this year. “One year does not make a trend,” he said, adding that the health of the Fraser River salmon was a separate issue.

Increased survival rates, possibly as a result of few predators or more food, were major factors in addition to the hatcheries contributing to the increase in populations, Prof. Peterman said. But the research team was concerned about the competition developing between hatchery salmon and wild salmon, he added.

Hatchery salmon will stray into wild streams and interbreed, he said. “It degrades the fitness of the wild population. The wild population has a store of genetic material that enables them to respond to a variety of situations, like climate change.”

Although the hatchery fish would likely dominate the wild stock, they may then struggle to survive if conditions change. Hatchery salmon generally are not as successful as wild salmon in responding to fluctuating conditions such as climate change, he said. Hatchery fish may produce offspring that are less able to withstand factors that affect their survival, he said.

Canadian salmon hatcheries are not major suppliers, Prof. Peterman also said. However, the significant release of juveniles from Alaska’s hatcheries affects populations outside their borders.

B.C. salmon migrate into the Pacific Ocean and to the Gulf of Alaska. Intermingling with hatchery fish from Japan and Alaska is a big problem. “Unilateral actions by various hatcheries is having detrimental affect on salmon everywhere,” he said.

Carla Shore, spokeswoman for the Cohen Commission investigating the decline of the Fraser River salmon, said Sunday the commission was not researching hatcheries as one of the causes for the decline. However, if credible evidence is available, the commission will look into it, she said.

The article is available in the peer reviewed online October edition of Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamic Management and Ecosystem Science.

www.serengetifishingcharters.com

 

[highlights]

This should be interesting.

 

[Rum Buddies]

salmon ranching???

 

[Copper Moon]

Nice of Global News to ignore that it is not BC hatcheries in their report

 

[searun]

Have to agree with Dr. Peterman on this one. The ocean has a limited carrying capacity, meaning at some point there will not be enough food available to support all those fish. There is need for a balance in augmented production levels to achieve sustainable abundance. Certainly Canada is not at any risk of transgressing any production limits...we can barely find a hatchery that is producing any reasonable number of fish.

Searun

 

[Lipripper]

Quick.............. give Jimmy P a call... he'll take care of that.

 

[chris73]

What a bunch of BS! Just alone this statement here reveals the populism he is riding:

quote:...fluctuating conditions such as climate change...

As if climate change would be phenomenon of quickly fluctating conditions... BS

If you look alone at historic levels of the major west coast river systems: Sacramento, Columbia, Fraser, Skeena etc... you will see we have MANY millions of salmon to go to where it once was. No hatchery production in the world has come close to that original capacity.

True is probably that the food chain balance in the pacific is out of whack. That is the balance of food to fish, forage fish to predator fish. If there are more salmon than the pacific can sustainably provide for that tells us that anchovies, herrings, krill etc are in even worse shape than salmon. Maybe that's where the solution should start and not questioning whether we should cap the number of salmon even further...

 

[Derby]

Overcrowded oceans threaten wild salmon: researchers

Billions of hatchery-bred fish are out-competing natural populations for food and habitat

By Randy Shore, Vancouver Sun October 5, 2010


Wild salmon stocks in the north Pacific are being eroded as the fish are forced to compete for food and shrinking habitat with billions of hatchery fish released into the oceans each year, a new study by scientists in B.C. and Washington state says.

This warning comes as the population of sockeye, pink and chum salmon across the Pacific Rim is higher than it has been in many decades.

"The total number of salmon out there is at an all-time high, in fact, the abundance is about double what it was in the 1950s," said Randall Peterman, a fisheries management scientist at Simon Fraser University and a co-author of the newly published study.

But releasing large numbers of hatchery fish to supply a food fishery is harmful to the natural salmon populations, he said.

"Hatchery fish have been causing deterioration in the wild population for some time."

The authors of the study, published in the peer-reviewed journal Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamic Management and Ecosystem Science, are calling for the creation of an international forum to regulate the production of hatchery fish.

"The fact is that hatchery fish from one nation can influence the health of salmon stocks in another nation," Peterman said.

Hatchery output, particularly in Alaska and Japan, has reached about five billion fish a year and continues to climb, creating a triple threat for wild stocks.

Faced with increased competition for food, wild salmon return to their spawning grounds underweight and less able to spawn successfully.

"Both hatchery and wild fish are going to face slower growth if the have to compete for food," Peterman said. But hatchery fish are born to be eaten, not spawn in the wild, while wild stocks must be healthy in order to successfully reproduce.

Interbreeding between wild salmon and hatchery fish that stray into spawning grounds weakens the wild stocks. The fish that hatcheries release are raised in a protected environment not subject to the same threats -- also called "selection pressure" -- in the early stages of life as wild salmon and are genetically inferior to wild salmon, Peterman said.

"This has been shown to degrade genetic diversity and could make wild salmon less able to cope with variations in natural conditions," he explained.

"The decline in the robustness of the wild fish could make them less able to cope with the pressures of climate change."

And finally, the artificial abundance created by huge hatchery output leads to overfishing that further depletes wild stocks.

The combined abundance of wild and hatchery fish encourages fisheries managers to allow a higher harvest rate, Peterman warned.

But since the fishery is non-selective -- wild and hatchery fish are both harvested at a higher rate -- that leads to overharvesting of the wild stock.

Hatchery salmon represent about 20 per cent of the total salmon population, but runs as high as 76 per cent in Asian waters for species such as chum.

"The proportion of hatchery fish is rising and will continue to rise if hatchery plans that are on the books are built," he said.

rshore@vancouversun.com

© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun


Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/technol...+researchers/3624345/story.html#ixzz11VVGLudF

 

[Klob]

I wonder what would happen if we stopped pillaging food fish such as herring and krill from the ocean ???????

 

[Ed Beatty]

The Canada/USA research team seems to have missed a very important observation that should have influenced their conclusions. The overfishing of herring,pilchard,krill,and other food sources that support the salmon population will certainly reduce the number of adults that
can survive.The hatchery program in the states with a little help from the Canadian hatchery system is a valuable asset.In many BC coastal areas,such as Rivers Inlet,they preserve the salmon returns after the Provincial govt. allows a destructive logging program to virtually destroy the watersheds.And one final point,the BC hatchery program is not well supported by the Federal govt.and could not continue if it was not sustained by an incredible volunteer system.Ask your local MP how the $6.00 conservation stamp on your license is distributed.
[V]

 

[Tasteless]

quote:Originally posted by Ed Beatty

The Canada/USA research team seems to have missed a very important observation that should have influenced their conclusions. The overfishing of herring,pilchard,krill,and other food sources that support the salmon population will certainly reduce the number of adults that
can survive.The hatchery program in the states with a little help from the Canadian hatchery system is a valuable asset.In many BC coastal areas,such as Rivers Inlet,they preserve the salmon returns after the Provincial govt. allows a destructive logging program to virtually destroy the watersheds.And one final point,the BC hatchery program is not well supported by the Federal govt.and could not continue if it was not sustained by an incredible volunteer system.Ask your local MP how the $6.00 conservation stamp on your license is distributed.
[V]

Finally someone beat me too it, I was about to post see'ing as I just made an account for this topic and another.

How can anyone say there is a over abundance of salmon out there in the ocean when before man was ever around there were hundreds of million of salmon out there and returned to there native rivers every year.

Maybe the need to take hundreds of tonnes of herring and krill for such frivolous things as the japanese sushi market (where most of the herring goes for the roe itself) and krill for god knows what everything that involves krill I know is in fish food from pet stores. The salmon might have something out there to eat and sustain healthy populations.

You can't ever get me to believe that we are doing salmon runs a favor by opening the commercials to them year after year to help prevent over crowded spawning streams. Albeit logging, mining, and the industrialization of alot of spawning area's don't help with over crowded spawning grounds when they shrink ever year due to destruction.

Without hatcheries how many rivers would have extinct salmon runs, would anyone even consider coming to the stamp river system to fish steelhead in the winter w/o the roberston creek hatchery pumping fish year after year, very unlikely.

This article is such a load of B.S

 

[Charlie]

Have any even read the report referred to? [?]

If you have you will see the twists. I believe it is a good accurate report! They aren't talking about reducing any hatchery production, rather cautioning on over production and the possibility of degrading the wild stocks - in certain areas. They are NOT talking about global warming, but changing PDO to El Nino conditions - which we are currently in the process of and that will effect the salmon food supply. And, yes there is an over fishing problem, but that is not what is being addressed. And they certainly did NOT say the "North Pacific ‘overcrowded’ with salmon as population soars"

Here... let's look at some of the actual report and really see what we want to disagree with and pick apart?

quote: The reason for the increase in abundance of wild pink salmon and sockeye salmon populations is not completely clear, but evidence leans toward increased survival rates (at least for some populations in northern areas; i.e., Alaska and Russia), increased spawning populations (Dorner et al. 2008), or both. For instance, sockeye salmon from Bristol Bay showed substantial increases in survival rate (measured as recruits per spawner) since the early to mid-1970s, even after correcting for within-stock density-dependent effects related to spawner abundance (Peterman et al. 1998, 2003). Pink salmon populations, even those in Alaska, did not show consistent increases or decreases in recruits per spawner (corrected for within-stock density-dependent effects), but spawners increased after the 1970s for most of those populations (Pyper et al. 2001).

Can anyone see anything there to disagree with? I certainly don’t.

quote: Marine conditions affect productivity and abundance of pink salmon, chum salmon, and sockeye salmon.
Productivity of these three species in North America was significantly associated with early summer sea surface temperatures at the time of juvenile entry into the ocean, with higher temperatures being associated with higher numbers of recruits per spawner in Alaska but fewer recruits per spawner in British Columbia and Washington (except for chum salmon in Washington; Mueter et al. 2002a). In Alaska after the mid-1970s, greater growth of sockeye salmon during early marine life contributed to their greater productivity and abundance (Ruggerone et al. 2007). Likewise, greater early marine growth of pink salmon in the Gulf of Alaska was associated with greater survival of stocks from central Alaska (Moss et al. 2005; Cross et al. 2008). In Russia, abundances of pink salmon and chum salmon similarly appear to be driven by ocean conditions, but degraded habitat and overharvest have also influenced trends of adult abundance in some regions (Radchenko 1998; Fukuwaka et al. 2007; Kaev et al. 2007; Radchenko et al. 2007).

I can’t seem to find anything to disagree with here either?

quote: Pink salmon is the most abundant species of wild salmon, representing approximately 70% of the total abundance of wild chum salmon, sockeye salmon, and pink salmon. Abundance of wild pink salmon has been relatively high since the mid-1990s, averaging 3763106 fish, or 76% of the total wild salmon abundance. Chum salmon and sockeye salmon represented approximately 10% and 14%, respectively, of total wild salmon abundance during this period. We hypothesize that warm temperatures and high abundance of plankton during the early 2000s (Overland and Stabeno 2004; Basyuk et al. 2007; Radchenko et al. 2007; Volkov et al. 2007) were especially beneficial to the survival of pink salmon, which enter the ocean at a smaller size and grow more rapidly than sockeye salmon or chum salmon (Ishida et al. 1998; Quinn 2005). The great abundance of pink salmon returning from the North Pacific Ocean is noteworthy because pink salmon can influence the growth, survival, and distribution of other salmon species (e.g., Ruggerone and Nielsen 2004) and because the long-range forecast is for an increasing ocean heat content that may favor pink salmon (Radchenko et al. 2007).

I can’t seem to find anything to disagree with here either?

quote: Unlike most sockeye salmon and pink salmon populations in the North Pacific, wild chum salmon did not increase in abundance after the mid-1970s regime shift. The lack of a response primarily reflects the declining abundance of wild chum salmon in mainland Russia, which supports the largest wild chum salmon runs in the North Pacific Ocean. Chum salmon in mainland Russia increased beginning in 1993, but abundances were still far below the levels recorded prior to 1970. Although overharvest and habitat degradation have been recognized as factors affecting the decline of Russian wild chum salmon stocks in the 1950s and 1960s, it is possible that competition with the approximately 2 3 109 chum salmon released annually from Japanese hatcheries and up to 3603106 chum salmon from Russian hatcheries has inhibited the recovery of Russian wild chum salmon stocks (Radchenko 1998; Kaeriyama et al. 2007). Japanese hatchery chum salmon are broadly distributed throughout much of the North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea (Myers et al. 2007; Beacham et al. 2009; Urawa et al. 2009) and could potentially affect the growth of wild chum salmon populations originating from Russia, western Alaska, central Alaska, southeast Alaska, and British Columbia (Myers et al. 2004). In Alaska, wild chum salmon runs north of southeast Alaska declined during 1990–2005, especially those in Prince William Sound, where abundance of hatchery-origin chum salmon has grown rapidly since the late 1980s and now represents approximately 73% of total chum salmon abundance. This pattern raises the question of whether large-scale releases of chum salmon in Prince William Sound in addition to those in Japan and Russia have influenced growth and survival of wild chum salmon, as has been debated for pink salmon (Hilborn and Eggers 2000, 2001; Wertheimer et al. 2001, 2004a, 2004b).

Well, I didn’t know Russia supported the largest wild chum runs in the North Pacific, did you? And I would have to agree “it is possible” that competition with those Japanese and Russian hatcheries could potentially affect the growth of wild chum from the other areas? And I can agree with “This pattern raises the question" of whether there might have/be influences in the other areas, so I can’t really disagree with anything so far – can you?

quote: Management Implications
Although the observed large increases in abundance of wild pink salmon and sockeye salmon during the last few decades may appear to contradict the intense conservation concerns about salmon in the North Pacific, these different viewpoints are both valid but at different spatial scales. Legitimate conservation concerns arise in spite of these general overall increases because for certain species, there are many individual populations and regions in which wild salmon abundance has decreased severely, such as chum salmon in Japan, South Korea, the Amur River (Russia and China), western Alaska, and the Columbia River; summer-run chum salmon in Hood Canal (Washington); and sockeye salmon in the Kvichak River (Bristol Bay), Rivers Inlet (British Columbia), the Fraser River (British Columbia), and the Snake River basin (Idaho); among many others. Salmon species and stocks have broad distributions in the ocean, and abundant stocks overlap and intermingle with those having low productivity (Myers et al. 2007, 2009). Potential density-dependent interactions arising from increased abundance of the more-productive stocks may potentially depress less-productive ones through reduced growth, reduced survival, or both (e.g., Peterman 1984a; Ruggerone et al. 2003), and increased fishing pressure on productive stocks may adversely affect less-productive stocks with overlapping distributions.

Once again, valid statements – are they not?

quote: Important management implications of our wild and hatchery salmon abundance estimates emerge from the combination of four factors: (1) the growing public interest in maintaining abundant, productive, and biologically diverse wild salmon populations and sustainable salmon fisheries, (2) the large and increasing percentage contribution of hatchery fish to the total abundance of adult salmon in the North Pacific Ocean, (3) plans to maintain or increase hatchery production in the future regardless of ocean conditions, and (4) evidence of density-dependent interactions within and among species and within and among salmon from the same or even different geographic regions or nations. An important policy implication of this conjunction of factors is that salmon originating from different nations may compete for a limited ‘‘common pool’’ of food resources in international waters of the North Pacific. This is a potential ‘‘tragedy of the commons’’ situation, leading some to call for limitations or economic disincentives for hatchery releases (e.g., Peterman 1984b; deReynier 1998; Heard 1998; Holt et al. 2008). Coordinating leadership by the NPAFC or an analogous international treaty organization to address this issue would be beneficial (Holt et al. 2008). This concern about competing for limited resources may become considerably more acute if the North Pacific area occupied by salmon decreases due to climatic warming (Welch et al. 1998).

“Four factors”, let me think on that! I agree with number one and number two. Really don’t know about number three and would have to think consideration would be given there? And, concede there is a “potential””tragedy of the commons”? Also, the competing for limited resources “may” become considerably more acute “IF” the North Pacific area occupied by salmon, decreases due to climatic warming… and I am referring to PDO and El Nino conditions!!!! NOT GLOBAL WARMING!!!!

quote: Hatchery production represents a large portion of total runs in some relatively pristine regions where wild salmon reproduction is not compromised by habitat degradation in freshwater (e.g., Prince William Sound, Kodiak, and southeast Alaska). If density-dependent feedback on growth, survival, or both is substantial and widespread among stocks that intermingle at sea, then questions arise about whether large hatchery production is appropriate or advantageous in such systems. In contrast with the dynamics of wild salmon populations, hatchery releases usually remain high irrespective of whether ocean productivity is high or low. An example of the difficulty in answering this challenge is the debate between Hilborn and Eggers (2000, 2001) and Wertheimer et al. (2001, 2004a) over the net benefit of hatchery pink salmon in Prince William Sound. Hatchery salmon may reduce variability in harvests but this benefit to fishermen may come with a cost to wild salmon productivity. Additionally, there can be substantial straying of hatchery fish into natural spawning areas, which can degrade the fitness and biological diversity of the wild populations (e.g., Levin et al. 2001; Ford 2002; Naish et al. 2007; Buhle et al. 2009).

So, then questions arise about large hatchery production is appropriate in “SUCH” system – I would have agree, with the difficulty in answering this challenge statement – that debate has been going on for years. Now the “can degrade the fitness and biological diversity of the wild”? I can’t verify what happens on a daily basis all over the world, but most hatcheries I know “here” watch that very closely as to NOT degrade wild runs.

quote: Resource agencies often do not separately estimate and report hatchery and wild salmon in the catch, let alone the spawner counts. The presence of numerous hatchery salmon can reduce the accuracy of wild salmon abundance and productivity estimates, which are important for setting goals for harvest rates and spawning abundances. Furthermore, identification of hatchery salmon in mixed-stock fisheries is important for reducing the chance of overexploiting the wild stock. We therefore strongly recommend that all hatchery-released juvenile salmon be marked in some way so that the resulting adults can be estimated separately from wild fish (e.g., with clipped adipose fins or via thermal marking, as in Alaska). Cautions Regarding Data Quality The data presented here represent a more-complete accounting of wild and hatchery salmon abundances throughout the North Pacific than has been provided by previous estimates (e.g., Rogers 1987, 2001; Beamish et al. 1997; Eggers 2009; Irvine et al. 2009; Kaeriyama et al. 2009) because we expanded spawner counts where appropriate and accounted for hatchery salmon in all regions. Nevertheless, we caution readers that the quality of our salmon abundance data is variable among species and regions. Estimating stock-specific catch and spawning abundance of wild salmon is difficult, especially in large, remote watersheds, but it is much more difficult when hatchery and wild salmon are mixed in the catch and when hatchery fish stray to the spawning grounds. However, the key question is how would the caveats and assumptions below have led to incorrect conclusions about spatial and temporal differences in abundances? In most cases, we believe that errors in our assumptions would have produced more imprecision in year-to-year estimates rather than consistent bias in one direction or the other. Thus, the general patterns and approximate magnitude of hatchery versus wild salmon in the compiled data are likely valid. Spawner abundance represents the least accurate component of total salmon abundance because only a portion of total spawners is typically enumerated. For example, in British Columbia, observed spawner counts were expanded by approximately 1.7x for pink salmon (where x is the field estimate of spawner abundance), 2.7x for sockeye salmon (often smaller populations), and 4x for chum salmon (e.g., English et al. 2006). In Alaska, similar expansion values were used for pink salmon and chum salmon, whereas most large stocks of sockeye salmon were close to complete counts. Price et al. (2008) noted that the quality of spawner counts in British Columbia has declined in recent years because fewer streams are now monitored; the decline in quality especially affects smaller streams in which populations may not be highly correlated with the monitored populations. In Russia, total spawning abundance has been reported by district since 1992, but information on expansion factors was not readily available (V. Svirdov, Pacific Scientific Research Fisheries Center, Vladivostok, Russia, personal communication) and it is not possible to evaluate the potential for error in spawner counts. However, as in British Columbia and Alaska, we suspect that the effort to enumerate spawning salmon in Russia has declined in response to declining budgets for salmon management. The number of hatchery salmon on the spawning grounds is typically not reported because hatchery fish cannot be identified unless they are marked (which some hatcheries fail to do) and because spawning salmon, especially pink salmon and chum salmon, are typically enumerated using techniques (e.g., aerial flights) that prohibit identification of hatchery- versus wild-origin salmon. The degree to which hatchery salmon contributed to regional natural spawning populations in our data set reflects the ability of harvesters to remove most hatchery salmon in the region (e.g., terminal hatchery harvest area), the ratio of hatchery to wild salmon abundance, distance of the stream from the hatchery, species of salmon and associated degree of straying, and hatchery characteristics that attract homing hatchery salmon. As a result of these factors, our data set overestimates wild salmon abundance and underestimates hatchery salmon production in some regions such as Prince William Sound and southeast Alaska, where hatchery production of pink salmon and chum salmon is high. In these regions, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game (ADFG) has begun investigations to determine numbers of hatchery salmon on the spawning grounds (R. Brenner and S. Moffitt, ADFG, personal communication). The influence of hatchery strays on wild salmon counts was greater after about 1980, when hatchery production was relatively high.

“therefore strongly recommend that all hatchery-released juvenile salmon be marked”, yep I agree with that! Is there anything else in there that we really didn’t already know?

quote: Harvest rate estimation was a key approach for estimating total spawners, especially with regard to the early years of our data set, when fewer spawner counts were available. Years with low harvest rates could lead to greater error in total salmon abundance. However, in most regions, fisheries were fully developed by the 1950s and harvest rates were often greater than 50%, suggesting that harvest estimates, which are relatively accurate, typically accounted for most of total abundance. Again, even if our estimated harvest rates were imprecise (as opposed to consistently being biased either low or high), this would not change our overall conclusions about regional and temporal trends in abundance. Labor strikes may affect abundance estimates for some regions in some years, but their effect on the abundance trends shown here was likely small because abundances in recent decades were often based on estimated spawners and reported harvests and because the area influenced by the strike was often small.

Often, abundance of hatchery salmon in the harvest was not reported by the harvest management agency. We used hatchery abundances reported by the hatchery when possible, but we often estimated total abundance of hatchery salmon by using survival rate estimates and we removed these hatchery fish from the total abundance counts when appropriate. Species-specific survival rates were typically mean annual values for a region because most hatcheries do not estimate survival annually.

Regardless of these uncertainties in our data, we are confident that the spatial and temporal patterns and relative contributions of hatchery and wild fish that we have shown are robust. Some of these data have been used in a variety of earlier investigations (e.g., Pyper etal. 2001, 2002; Mueter et al. 2002b; Dorner et al. 2008), including a North Pacific-wide simulation study demonstrating that density dependence in the ocean was an important factor contributing to the observed trends in hatchery and wild salmon abundance (Mantua et al. 2009).

Nothing there to disagree with, is there?

Now here is the recommendations:
Four clear recommendations emerge from this synthesis of data.

“First, salmon management agencies and private salmon hatchery operators in the North Pacific should develop their plans for regulations and activities while considering the large numbers of hatchery fish and the high proportion of total adult abundance that is composed of hatchery fish, especially for pink salmon and chum salmon. “

I don’t see anything wrong with that?

“Second, we recommend controlled manipulations of hatchery salmon releases at local and larger spatial scales as a means to experimentally evaluate density-dependent effects on wild salmon (see Peterman 1991). Such action is needed because stable releases of numerous hatchery salmon complicate efforts to further quantify density-dependent interactions involving salmon originating from local and distant regions as well as from different nations. “

I agree, we need controlled manipulation of hatchery salmon releases to protect our wild stocks.

“A third recommendation is that all organizations and institutions involved in producing or harvesting salmon in the North Pacific should engage in serious discussions about how best to share the North Pacific food resources used by salmon, especially given that areas of suitable ocean habitat in this region are forecasted to decrease drastically due to future climatic conditions. “

Again, in case you haven’t figured it out yet… they are talking about a PDO El Nino conditions, which we are currently entering – NOT GOLBAL WARMING!!!

“Fourth, we recommend (1) the marking of all hatchery-released juvenile salmon to distinguish them from wild fish and (2) the rigorous sampling of hatchery and wild salmon in the harvest and on spawning grounds to evaluate the status of wild salmon and the net benefits of hatchery salmon. Abundances of hatchery and wild salmon should also be reported regularly by management agencies to identify trends and potential conditions of concern. “

If you are an angler and you don’t agree with number four – you are NUTS!

Sorry, looks to me some editor is trying to "sell newspapers" and
there is an old saying "don't shoot the messanger". Well, in this case maybe we should shoot the reporter?

More than my two cents and really don't see where anything in this report is BS?
http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/00920/Read_the_report_on__920521a.pdf

 

[Sushihunter]

http://www.rem.sfu.ca/people/peterman/

Randall M. Peterman



B.Sc. (Biological Sciences, University of California at Davis)
Ph.D. (Zoology, University of British Columbia)
Professor and Canada Research Chair in Fisheries Risk Assessment and Management · School of Resource and Environmental Management
Research: http://www.rem.sfu.ca/fishgrp

Watch a video of a 2009 seminar that gives an overview of my research: Improving Pacific Salmon Populations

Email: peterman (AT) sfu (DOT) ca
Phone: (778) 782-4683
Fax: (778) 782-4968

Dr. Randall M. Peterman holds a Canada Research Chair in “Fisheries Risk Assessment and Management” and specializes in quantitative methods to improve fisheries management. His research focuses on: (1) fish population dynamics, (2) uncertainties affecting conservation risks and management decisions, and (3) approaches to reducing uncertainties. His research team uses large data sets, simulation models, Bayesian and other statistical methods, and formal decision analysis.

Peer recognition for his research includes the 1990 J.C. Stevenson Award for “... creative research on the cutting edge of an aquatic discipline.” Awards include the 2006 Robert L. Kendall “Best Paper Award” for the Transactions of the American Fisheries Society (134:86), “The Most Significant Paper in the North American J. of Fisheries Management” (1992, 12:1), and the 1994 W.F. Thompson Award (American Institute of Fisheries Research Biologists) for “The Best Student Paper” (Canadian J. of Fish. & Aquatic Sci. 49:1294). Another paper was one of six finalists in 2002 for the “Best Paper” award in the Transactions of the American Fisheries Society.

In 1990, Randall won Simon Fraser University’s Excellence in Teaching Award. He has co-chaired a panel for the Canadian Global Change Program of the Royal Society of Canada.

Example publications include: (Full Publication Listing)

•Dorner, B., R.M. Peterman, and Z. Su. 2009. Evaluation of performance of alternative models of Pacific salmon in the presence of climatic change and outcome uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulations. In press, Can. J. Fish. & Aquat. Sci. 66(12):2199-2221.

•Pestes, L. and others. 2008. Bayesian decision analysis for evaluating management options to promote recovery of a depleted salmon population. Conservation Biology 22:351-361.


•Nelitz, M.A. and others. 2007. A science-based approach for identifying temperature-sensitive streams for rainbow trout. North American Journal of Fisheries Management (NAJFM) 27:405-424.


•Holt, C.A. and R.M. Peterman. 2006. Missing the target: uncertainties in achieving management goals in fisheries on Fraser River, British Columbia sockeye salmon. Can. J. Fish. & Aquat. Sci. (CJFAS) 63:2722-2733.


•Peterman, R. M. 2004. Possible solutions to some challenges facing fisheries scientists and managers. In press in the ICES Journal of Marine Science.


•Su, Z., R. M. Peterman, S. L. Haeseker. 2004. Spatial hierarchical Bayesian models for stock-recruitment analysis of pink salmon. Canadian J. of Fisheries &Aquatic Sci. 61(2):2471-2486.


•MacGregor, B.W., R.M. Peterman, B.J. Pyper and M.J. Bradford. 2002. A decision analysis framework for comparing experimental designs of projects to enhance Pacific salmon. North Amer. J. Fish. Mgmt. 22(2):509-527.


•Mueter, F.J., R.M. Peterman, B.J. Pyper. 2002. Opposite effects of ocean temperature on survival rates of 120 stocks of Pacific salmon in northern and southern areas. Canadian J. of Fisheries & Aquatic Sci.


•Peterman, R.M., B.J. Pyper, J.A. Grout 2000. Comparison of parameter estimation methods for detecting climate-induced changes in productivity of Pacific salmon. Canadian J. of Fisheries & Aquatic Sci., 57:181-191.


•Peterman, R.M. and J.L. Anderson. 1999. Decision analysis: a method for taking uncertainties into account in risk-based decision making. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment 5:231-244.


•Peterman, R.M. 1990. Statistical power analysis can improve fisheries research and management. Canadian J. of Fisheries &Aquatic Sci. 47:2-15.

Randall also co-authored the “Precautionary Approach to Fisheries, Part 1: Guidelines on the precautionary approach to capture fisheries and species introductions,” 1995, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, Fisheries Technical Paper No. 350/1.

Randall teaches Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis (REM 625) and the Ph.D Research Methods course (REM 802).







Jim's Fishing Charters
www.JimsFishing.com
http://www.youtube.com/user/Sushihunter250

 

[Sushihunter]

Randal Peterman was on CBC Radio today (October 6, 2010) between Noon and 1 PM.

Podcast will be available at: http://www.cbc.ca/bcalmanac/

May take a day before it is posted.

Email the show at almanac@cbc.ca



Jim's Fishing Charters
www.JimsFishing.com
http://www.youtube.com/user/Sushihunter250