Fraser Chinook, coho, and pink salmon are above average

[wildmanyeah]

Chinook, coho, and pink salmon are above average, while other species are below with concerning recent declines​

Pink and coho salmon are showing promising signs of recovery, with spawner and total abundances currently well-above the long-term average. Coho are at levels not seen since before the crash of the 1990s, suggesting that reductions in harvest implemented as part of recovery planning for Interior Fraser coho may be paying off†. There was an exceptionally high return of Chinook to the Fraser in 2023, but time will tell if this was an anomaly or part of a positive trend.


Monitoring of Fraser sockeye dates back to 1893, and this 130-year record emphasizes how salmon abundance fluctuates through time. Despite an uptick in sockeye spawners in the early 2010s, the most recent spawner and total abundances are below the devastating returns in 2009 that triggered a federal inquiry†. Two of the last four years are the lowest total abundance on record, highlighting the persistent conservation concerns despite major reductions in fisheries.


Steelhead are well-below the long-term average and many populations face an imminent risk of extinction. Interior steelhead (Chilcotin and Thompson River populations) are listed as Endangered† by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada.

Fraser State of Salmon, 2024 Report

Chinook, coho, and pink salmon are above average while other species are below average with concerning recent declines.

stateofsalmon.psf.ca

Vancouver Island & Mainland Inlets​

Chum and steelhead are well-below average, while Chinook are above average​

Vancouver Island & Mainland Inlets is one of two regions where Chinook are above the long-term average. Many Chinook populations are doing exceptionally well in this region, including in the Cowichan River where record numbers are returning after near extinction in 2009. However, some populations are experiencing concerning declines and three Vancouver Island Chinook populations were recently assessed as Threatened or Endangered† by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada.


Our assessment in this region is based on spawner abundances only, due to challenges compiling spawner and catch data that reflect the same populations and are representative of the entire region. Indices of regional spawner abundances draw on data from hundreds of stream surveys, but still don't represent the absolute abundance of salmon returning to spawn due to the multitude of unsurveyed streams. Salmon catch cannot be reliably divided into fish destined for surveyed versus unsurveyed streams, meaning the spawner and catch estimates cannot be added to yield total abundance for the region.


The outlook for pink salmon is very positive, which reflects broader changes in the North Pacific, where pink salmon are the most abundant species of Pacific salmon†. However, pink salmon abundance tends to fluctuate more than other species and can change dramatically from year to year.


All other species are below or well-below the long-term average, with chum salmon and steelhead having experienced the most severe declines. Chum spawners have declined dramatically over the short-term, with 2022 spawner abundance reaching lows not seen since the 1960s.

 

[Hardy Guy]

Wild : now how can we blame the bad returns on the renaing fish farms while saying that the good returns are because some fish farms were removed ......... I'm sure Elmo is wrong hard on that.

Kidding aside interesting. Let hope chum can bounce back as they can have big runs from years of low returns.

 

[searun]

I have a hard time connecting the dots of coho and chinook recovery to fishery restrictions. For example, the David Anderson solution for Interior Thompson coho has been in place for how long? Was there recovery in the early decades of restrictions....NO. Much of the recent coho recovery we are seeing with increasing abundance in SoG and elsewhere has nothing to do with fishery restrictions - rather, more likely than not related to improving ocean conditions and prey availability to support recovery.

 

[Hardy Guy]

Yeah ocean survival seems to be one of the biggest factors

 

[Dale66]

Any word on estimates? See sandheads still has fish. Must be a insane return this year.

 

[wildmanyeah]

They the DFO don’t put out in season estimates anymore so won’t be till spring probably for the numbers to come out, I’ll post them up here when they come out for you dale

 

[littlechucky]

They the DFO don’t put out in season estimates anymore so won’t be till spring probably for the numbers to come out, I’ll post them up here when they come out for you dale

I will give an estimate for Chinook returns to the Fraser which will certainly be more accurate and scientific than DFO:

“Sh*tloads”

 

[IronNoggin]

Don't let the NGO's run with their view that restricted access created this.
To some extent it had a positive effect.
The MUCH larger effect was the lack of pinniped predation this year ;-)

 

[RalphH]

I have a hard time connecting the dots of coho and chinook recovery to fishery restrictions. For example, the David Anderson solution for Interior Thompson coho has been in place for how long?

since about 1999

Was there recovery in the early decades of restrictions....NO. Much of the recent coho recovery we are seeing with increasing abundance in SoG and elsewhere has nothing to do with fishery restrictions - rather, more likely than not related to improving ocean conditions and prey availability to support recovery.

yes there was in the first 10 to 20 years. Much of the later decline is thought attributable to low water and water temperature regimes caused by irrigation demands, warming summers and wildfires.

 

[RalphH]

I can't see at all that PSF distinguishes between wild populations and hatchery returns. The Chilliwack returns huge returns of chinook based on no natural recruitment at all.

 

[searun]

since about 1999


yes there was in the first 10 to 20 years. Much of the later decline is thought attributable to low water and water temperature regimes caused by irrigation demands, warming summers and wildfires.

Harbour seal predation actually. Lots of research to support that. Coho out-migrate as larger smolts making them a tasty meal. Steelhead as well, and....Stream-type Chinook. All 3 emerge from our river estuaries as large sized smolts. When it comes to seal predation, size matters.

B Chasco · 2017 · Cited by 114 — Estimates of Chinook salmon consumption in Washington. State inland waters by four marine mammal predators from. 1970 to 2015.
Between 1970 and 2015, we estimate that the annual biomass of Chinook salmon consumed by pinnipeds has increased from 68 to 625 metric tons. Converting juvenile Chinook salmon into adult equivalents, we found that by 2015, pinnipeds consumed double that of resident killer whales and six times greater than the combined commercial and recreational catches.

 

[Fishing?]

I am not a scientist but if I put my hand in a fire I know it gets burned, empirical evidence.
FF's start massive increases in the 90's, fish stocks decline by about 20% per year, the same as death rates from the Norway virus.
In the later 80's and 90's there is a stop to seal hunts in BC, pinniped numbers rise dramatically. Pinnipeds eat salmon, this has an immediate on return rates.
Northern and transitory Orca numbers increase into the southern resident areas because they eat pinnipeds, more pinnipeds the more of those populations.
So did anyone research if Orcas' are territorial? Are they avoiding each other? Could that mean the salmon eaters are pushed out of their normal feeding areas by the seal eaters? Could that cause a decline in Resident Orca numbers? They are a smart species and don't talk/play with each other so is it possible if 60 or 70 meat eaters are around the 30 or 40 salmon eaters give them space? Anyone checked to see if they mingle or are even get close to each other? Distances between each pod?

Now that some FF's are removed, combined with fishing restrictions and some salmon stocks have rebounded to almost record numbers. FF's removed 2019 on, salmon runs in yearly cycles so that has given some runs around 3 years of no FF's. There have also been two big landslides to hurt returns. But returns have been larger than expected in some runs, also there has been a quiet return to seal removals, maybe where they are targeted is as important as the how many. I know for awhile there were lots of seals seen in the Fraser River, now not as many.

So for me, FF's moved and runs increase.
Pinniped control and Orca predation, runs increase
Northern and Transient Orcas are more prevalent and Resident numbers still decrease, territorial? More salmon but less residents. As a biproduct of those increased Orca populations hunting pinnipeds might that also be adding to run returns, pinniped removal has an immediate effect.

Albion test fishery numbers stop being accurate, to date they would be the lowest numbers ever recorded but some steams have massive numbers.

Floods, landslides, droughts and their run numbers still increase although some effect of those might still need time to reflect those natural disasters.

Basically just rambling for entertainment here. Is global warming increasing the run sizes? Anyone got pics of spawning?

 

[Dale66]

Did u see the later Albion numbers?! Unreal bon chovy posted em

 

[RalphH]

Harbour seal predation actually. Lots of research to support that. Coho out-migrate as larger smolts making them a tasty meal. Steelhead as well, and....Stream-type Chinook. All 3 emerge from our river estuaries as large sized smolts. When it comes to seal predation, size matters.

B Chasco · 2017 · Cited by 114 — Estimates of Chinook salmon consumption in Washington. State inland waters by four marine mammal predators from. 1970 to 2015.
Between 1970 and 2015, we estimate that the annual biomass of Chinook salmon consumed by pinnipeds has increased from 68 to 625 metric tons. Converting juvenile Chinook salmon into adult equivalents, we found that by 2015, pinnipeds consumed double that of resident killer whales and six times greater than the combined commercial and recreational catches.

thanks certainly aware of these studies. Situation with IFC may be somewhat different. Some streams such as the Salmon have all but dewatered in their lower reaches.

 

[Stoisy]

Could that mean the salmon eaters are pushed out of their normal feeding areas by the seal eaters? Could that cause a decline in Resident Orca numbers? They are a smart species and don't talk/play with each other so is it possible if 60 or 70 meat eaters are around the 30 or 40 salmon eaters give them space? Anyone checked to see if they mingle or are even get close to each other? Distances between each pod?

Northern and Transient Orcas are more prevalent and Resident numbers still decrease, territorial? More salmon but less residents. As a biproduct of those increased Orca populations hunting pinnipeds might that also be adding to run returns, pinniped removal has an immediate effect.

Interesting thoughts @Fishing? not sure the results are conclusive, but there does appear to be some relationship between SRKW and Transient presence based on this study - https://peerj.com/articles/6062/ - from 2011 to 2017. However, they note in the discussion -

"Thirdly, a possible explanation is that the transients are continuing to move into the Salish Sea in part because the Southern Residents are utilizing this habitat less. While there is no competition for prey resources between these two populations, anecdotal observations of mammal-eating transients avoiding fish-eating residents have been regularly made over the 50 years of killer whale study in the region."

Further in the conclusions -

"This continued increase is likely in response to recovering marine mammal populations in the region, but also may have been influenced by the decline in usage of the Salish Sea by the endangered fish-eating Southern Resident killer whale population, as some observations have suggested that the two ecotypes avoid one another."

The SRKWs are noisy, talkative whales that are not shy about communicating with one another, as their target prey do not hear the same frequencies which they communicate with. Conversely, the Transients are relatively quiet as they hunt mammals that can hear them, and need a more stealthy approach.

It appears that the Transients are simply moving into the free space in the Salish Sea, as the SRKWs are changing their habits and habitat use. The noisy Salish Sea likely helps the Transients hunt, as their presence might be masked by the shipping and vessel traffic noise. Although, there is no conclusive evidence that it is not the other way around. Maybe they are pushing them out? Interesting thought for sure!

 

[SpringVelocity]

I think we are getting close to being done honestly. With this current government I can see us completely shut in a few years. We desperately need a complete flip in government as soon as possible.

This year is going to be very challenging trying to keep opportunities open. The government seems to just do what it wants regardless what science says.

Having the government basically put a pause on MSF framework this upcoming year because of stakeholder pressure is really troubling.

 

[Hardy Guy]

I'm not sure why folks don't vote for their fishery ..... did it again provincially.

 

[onefish]

I'm not sure why folks don't vote for their fishery ..... did it again provincially.

For most people "their fishery" is a non voting issue. Housing, health care, economy, crime, education, etc etc etc are what people vote for, not "their fishery".

 

[Hardy Guy]

I think that most people that afford boats, fishing, travel, fishh processing, morrage ....etc.... etc are not worried about housing or education. Crime and affordability have not been addressed by any parties as of yet. Most of the parties don't do much for any of the other things I care about ..... maybe fishing (hunting) can improve so I can forget about their incompetence in all other areas.

 

[Fishing?]

Did u see the later Albion numbers?! Unreal bon chovy posted em

No, the site shows hardly any salmon caught at all, but streams are reported massive returns in some areas I understand. Where would I find the bon chovy numbers?

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[td]Fishery Operations System[/td]

[/td] [td]Daily Test Fishing Data, SALMON GILL NET TEST, Albion Chinook Gillnet[/td]