IPHC Halibut Forecast - further declines

[ryanb]

Shut August. There is opportunity for everything else at that time...rich clients at the lodges will still go home with cooler of Ling and Salmon. Enough of the picking on Victoria and Sooke!

 

[SerengetiGuide]

I always hear economic benefit of rec fishery on here from many. What would hurt economic benefit most of WHOLE province .... March. Or September.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

I will add I am still 100% on board we will not need to modify regs. 80k decrease and will make it.

 

[profisher]

The best economic benefit to the WHOLE province would be no closed time. So why are you bringing it up as your number 1 option at all? Should it not be the last resort option?

 

[searun]

Cut out March and save 30k. Normal weather would be at least another 40k (5%!). And we only used half our mortality so that’d be another 40k if Sfab can gwt Dfo to lower that. There’s 110,000 lbs in savings. Let’s say even just 80k to be safe. Plus the 40k we didn’t use this year is 120k!!!

We can't carry over any underage unfortunately, so there isn't a 120K buffer to play with IMO. March is a drop in the bucket (8,172 pounds) in terms of pounds used, hardly any benefit removing March. Looking at early season its 59,419 pounds March - May, and 53,956 for September only. Very little usually in the Oct - Dec timeframe from prior years pattern. Seems to me that we will finish the season in the 50 - 70K underage range. 2019 was a very good weather year, so that does help possibly mitigate as we generally don't see that kind of good fishable weather, so not likely to repeat in 2020. Also had those whacky Chinook regs which may have resulted in different levels of halibut targeting. Compared to 2018, where by September we were at 826,718, compared to 810,044 in 2019 or a difference of 16,674 pounds less.

Pretty decent all things considered, and we had a larger (126cm fish). I'll take that trade-off any day! Still a bit early in the day to speculate as to what our eventual 2020 TAC will be. One thing is pretty clear - if we have a reduction in TAC for 2020, there sure doesn't seem to be much wiggle room to allow us to roll over the 2019 regs without risk of an early closure. Doing the math a 10% reduction is 89,000 pounds less, and 15% reduction is 133,501 pounds less. Neither scenarios allow a full fishery at status quo unless we shorten the season or find other ways to dial back the catch engine. However, anything less than a 10% reduction doing a roll over of 2019 regs is starting to get pretty doable.

 

[searun]

Forgot to add, one other thing we could do is eliminate the US boats crossing over into Area 121 to fish halibut. July we had 91,711 pounds caught in Area 121...I suspect because there were a lot of US boats coming across. Heard lots of reports from the Rennie guys about this being a major problem. We could eliminate the impact of US boats crossing to fish Halibut by adding a Condition of License requiring all halibut caught to be landed in Canada, and fishing trips must originate and terminate on days of fishing in Canada. We could dial back a lot of poundage - just consider the impact of Area 121 in the month of July only.

 

[profisher]

The area 121 suggestion makes sense. With Alaska screwing us all with their by catch and boats coming into 121 from US waters with no economic benefit to Canadians...put a stop to it. I agree, make them stay in Canada and spend some money here.

 

[searun]

Its been noticed and is being worked on. As it turns out, the US side are not trilled with it either because it makes enforcing their 6 day season very difficult...guys can fish in US and say they got their fish in Canada when landing fish in US.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

We can't carry over any underage unfortunately, so there isn't a 120K buffer to play with IMO. March is a drop in the bucket (8,172 pounds) in terms of pounds used, hardly any benefit removing March. Looking at early season its 59,419 pounds March - May, and 53,956 for September only. Very little usually in the Oct - Dec timeframe from prior years pattern. Seems to me that we will finish the season in the 50 - 70K underage range. 2019 was a very good weather year, so that does help possibly mitigate as we generally don't see that kind of good fishable weather, so not likely to repeat in 2020. Also had those whacky Chinook regs which may have resulted in different levels of halibut targeting. Compared to 2018, where by September we were at 826,718, compared to 810,044 in 2019 or a difference of 16,674 pounds less.

Pretty decent all things considered, and we had a larger (126cm fish). I'll take that trade-off any day! Still a bit early in the day to speculate as to what our eventual 2020 TAC will be. One thing is pretty clear - if we have a reduction in TAC for 2020, there sure doesn't seem to be much wiggle room to allow us to roll over the 2019 regs without risk of an early closure. Doing the math a 10% reduction is 89,000 pounds less, and 15% reduction is 133,501 pounds less. Neither scenarios allow a full fishery at status quo unless we shorten the season or find other ways to dial back the catch engine. However, anything less than a 10% reduction doing a roll over of 2019 regs is starting to get pretty doable.

I never said carry over underage. Those numbers were without that. A 10% reduction considering all the variables absolutely allows for a full season at last years regs. You think we will have literally 1/2 the summer days as a lake?! Get real. Nevermind reduced pressure and fact we did not use anything close to our full mortality

 

[SerengetiGuide]

I am thinking those numbers are a tab bit off especially in area 19/20 for the august months I can tell you personally not alot of people fished in august for halibut as it was our only month to fish for salmon unlike the rest of the areas and also from aug 1 you were not allowed past sheringham pt I was out everyday and hardly anyone fish in between race and sheringham pt for halibut also we all know the spots west race then bluffs then the bays so I call bull on those numbers and especially the october number there is no way in HELL that october out fished april not enough people were out but hey if thats the data thats being used then the numbers for area 1 to 5 21 to 126 inclusive should have tighter restrictions implemented on them as they take the most??? I say voodoo match by this is quite in place fidge the numbers to look like they are doing a "great" job

But common sense is a super power

Also. Doing math and actual numbers if anyone is in it for themselves it’s you. Area 19/20 catch only 2.8% of their halibut catch in March according to dfo numbers. Coastwide that would be less than 1%!!!!!

 

[fogged in]

Also. Doing math and actual numbers if anyone is in it for themselves it’s you. Area 19/20 catch only 2.8% of their halibut catch in March according to dfo numbers. Coastwide that would be less than 1%!!!!!

I don't think you will ever find a Victoria or Sooke guide or true sport fishermen posting photo's like this.
It causes issues beyond your personal business and puts the whole industry at risk!
You have it all and want more!
From your web site....http://www.serengetifishingcharters.com/
Full one day limit of everything for all fishermen.
And some wonder why we have a problem!!

 

[SerengetiGuide]

LOL. The distraction post. Can’t refute the numbers so then there’s that post.

try actual refuting the numbers and logic.... waiting.
Sorry for catching level numbers of fish over 4 boats and the best day we have ever had on the water . Oh wait. No I’m not.

 

[searun]

I never said carry over underage. Those numbers were without that. A 10% reduction considering all the variables absolutely allows for a full season at last years regs. You think we will have literally 1/2 the summer days as a lake?! Get real. Nevermind reduced pressure and fact we did not use anything close to our full mortality

Oh my....well, your numbers add up like you are inserting an underage carry-over, I'm terribly sorry if I offended you. Anyway my point was that March is a drop in the bucket so why pick a fight with the guys from Victoria. If we have enough TAC, why wouldn't we consider a March start? My only point in earlier posts has been to look at the data and see how we have used the TAC to objectively assess where/when people fish. If there is a strong fishing catch either late season or early season, which I would suggest is a proxy for interest, then let that guide the decision if we have to find savings to make the TAC we get work. I'm not sensing there was a strong desire to lower the size we had last year (126 cm). Maybe we can find savings through a change in the Condition of License preventing US boats doing their bit crossing the border, that would contribute too. I wouldn't necessarily suggest one year of the Choice model that we ran in 2019 gives us a strong indication or predictor of how a fishery would unfold...so, wouldn't read as much into weather variables other than it potentially gives us another buffer. A change in the Chinook regulations could have a more dramatic affect.

 

[bryce]

Maybe shut down the north end of the island for salmon for a few years then maybe they might realize all sport fishermen need to stick together for halibut not just the port hardy season

 

[Gear'n'beer!]

I'm pretty happy to hear about the idea regarding area 121 searun. I think that is a great proposal. When fishing with Americans out of Westport you DO NOT bring up halibut......but if the subject arises most of the guests and all of the crew do the run over from the Washington side and pretty damn happy to do it!

 

[ziggy]

Anyone know what percentage of TAC is taken by non resident fishers? Would capping it be a viable option? I suspect we don’t keep that info but maybe we should. Seems ironic that Canada and the US get together and divvy up the stock, but if for example you can afford it, or live close enough, you can circumnavigate that allocation process and fish the other countries quota.

 

[richmake]

I'm pretty happy to hear about the idea regarding area 121 searun. I think that is a great proposal. When fishing with Americans out of Westport you DO NOT bring up halibut......but if the subject arises most of the guests and all of the crew do the run over from the Washington side and pretty damn happy to do it!

Seems like a real sound idea to explore

 

[searun]

what does working together mean? what does that season look like and what are the regs?

I have to agree, we shouldn't be making this a battle of the Areas. Every area has its own unique needs based on way too many factors to list....at the core here is this is a coast-wide TAC and resource, which means we have a duty to all areas to objectively look at all the data and try our best to achieve some sort of balance that meets the needs of the many (coast-wide) as opposed to meeting the needs of the few (specific areas).

 

[Rockfish]

I have to agree, we shouldn't be making this a battle of the Areas. Every area has its own unique needs based on way too many factors to list....at the core here is this is a coast-wide TAC and resource, which means we have a duty to all areas to objectively look at all the data and try our best to achieve some sort of balance that meets the needs of the many (coast-wide) as opposed to meeting the needs of the few (specific areas).

Agreed, and it is my impression that the SFAB process and Halibut Working Group has done an amazing job over the years to balance all those competing interests and come up with regulation that have been acceptable to all while not unfairily succumbing to the lobbing of individual areas. Based on that history I am inclined to trust them and the process.

The sport sector is a coalition and the sport and commercial sport sub-sectors need each other if we are collectively going to survive and compete with the other non sport sectors and in particular the commercial sector for fair access to Canada's Halibut. The commercial sport sector brings substantial funds that is an expense, not after tax dollars and organizational ability and infrastructure (SFI). The non guided anglers bring large numbers of votes and greater public pressure and justification for a fair share of Canada's Halibut. Both were necessary when we were successful in a small way during the Halibut war with the commercial sector and we will want and need that coalition in the future.

As a South VI angler, with our huge general population and angler population compared to all other areas that actually have a Halibut fishery, it would be blatantly obvious by the resulting outcome, if we were to be thrown under the bus in order to protect the interests of some areas with comparatively few resident and transient anglers to protect a few large fishing lodges and guides selling access to Canada's sport Halibut allocation for Dollars, US Dollars and Euros. We have mostly accepted that some remote areas take a disproportionate amount of Canada's sport allocation because of the importance of maintaining the Coalition.

I understand that the animals look at each other differently when the watering hole begins to dry up. This does not look that bad to me and I think all this discussion and panic is an over reaction to the fear brought on by the massive politicization and bungling incompetent salmon fishery management last year. What idiot govt. politicians thought that it was a good idea not to allow us to catch our own hatchery Chinook as an example.

Lets wait until we see the 2019 halibut numbers by region which may be rather different than 2018 with the massive salmon changes and see what our share is. I am somewhat optimistic that it may not be as bad as some think and the panic unnecessary.

 

[profisher]

There are US boats crossing over off Victoria and fishing the Canadian side for halibut there too. I think if you are going to try and invoke the area 121 suggestion it should include all waters accessible from Washington by a short boat trip and then back the same day. Otherwise you are likely just going to see a shift in effort into adjoining areas.