IPHC Halibut Forecast - further declines

[Confused]

819,000......our tac was 890,000...correct??

 

[ChinookExerciser]

819,000......our tac was 890,000...correct??

yes but I believe some of that was put aside for rec morts based on past season.

 

[wildmanyeah]

Thanks for the post is always so impossible to keep track where all these reports for various things get published.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Thanks for posting. Always tough to get at the numbers without guys like you informing us ! Thanks again. And that’s 810k with the calmest season ever.

 

[scott craven]

With little or no real data I'm wondering how they get these numbers.
It would be different if we had to submit licenses for data accumulation.
without that it has to be "guesstimating" ?

 

[halimark]

With little or no real data I'm wondering how they get these numbers.
It would be different if we had to submit licenses for data accumulation.
without that it has to be "guesstimating" ?

Very good post. Another years fight/attack/name calling/upsetting system will soon commence as we manage ourselves to TAC (extinction). All rec fishers should be mandated to complete on line catch records that reflects your licence, then send licence in or pic at end year for random verification, no completed record NO new licence. Step up or be gone. Its only way of verified data either for or against us. Boat counts by a plane are pure ******** catch numbers. This allocation takes no seasonal changes that affect catch rates. How can US do this for so many species taken with so many people yet we cannot?

HM

 

[SpringVelocity]

It doesn't matter what happens. At least we will be halibut fishing. Every year we argue about these numbers it won't change. Creel survey, plane flybys and guide logbooks are what we have. Have to deal with I am afraid unless someone wants to volunteer and move to a new system, or go after more TAC. You can post 100 pages on the forum and it will not change the system we have now.

I wish all volunteers traveling up to Alaska this year representing us "Good Luck".

 

[wildmanyeah]

This is the message coming out of Alaska to their sport fleet

“There are significant cuts coming this year and in subsequent years that are going to force the fleet to adapt to these changes or to go out of business,”

 

[SerengetiGuide]

This is the message coming out of Alaska to their sport fleet

“There are significant cuts coming this year and in subsequent years that are going to force the fleet to adapt to these changes or to go out of business,”

because they now have to account for their by catch and that’s screwing them now no?

 

[wildmanyeah]

Not sure

https://www.alaskapublic.org/2020/0...hing-fleets-in-southeast-southcentral-alaska/

 

[ChinookExerciser]

Halibut

The 2020 catch limits for Pacific halibut are one of the biggest question marks as 2019 closes. Recent survey data presented to the International Pacific Halibut Commission did not offer much hope for fishermen who have been seeing cuts in their fisheries over the past few years as halibut biomass continues to drop.

The 2019 annual IPHC meeting brought a reprieve for fishermen, as the commission declined to lower catch limits despite data showing biomass declines in the stock, but this year’s data showed continued declining biomass, particularly in the Gulf of Alaska.

The International Pacific Halibut Commission will set final 2020 catch limits at its upcoming meeting in February in Anchorage. The North Pacific Fishery Management Council passed a set of recommendations for ways to reduce the take in the charter fleet to help stay within smaller allocations, but the commercial quotas have yet to be set.

Elizabeth Earl can be reached at elizabethearl@gmail.com.

Updated:
12/24/2019 - 1:24pm

 

[ChinookExerciser]

Anyone know what day this week they start the negotiation for TAC

https://iphc.int/venues/details/96th-session-of-the-iphc-annual-meeting-am096

apparently they post these meetings on youtube

@ the 2h mark they talk about stock assessment! generally a decline!



You can also join the webinar, they open it up for public questions as well.

https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/8191787534643202818

 

[ChinookExerciser]

Why should canada get a cut when our numbers are up 5% from 2018 to 2019.




Apparently catching a high ratio of females in long line or trawl is not uncommon in flat fish fisheries. Also Not uncommon in fisheries where females grow bigger than males.

 

[Last Chance]

yes but I believe some of that was put aside for rec morts based on past season.

View attachment 49909

1000 Lbs of halibut the Georgia Strait? Wow. Not that that number changes anything, but interesting.

 

[ChinookExerciser]

Here is a slide that i found particularly interesting. A thought experiment. If they shut down Halibut fishing for the next 3 years the biomass would only return to the 2016 levels. This illustrates the weakness in the current biomass. No improvements expected until at least 2022. IF they stay at current levels of fishing removals the biomass in 3 years will be at 2019 levels. Essentially flat! Hard decisions for managers!

 

[Jencourt]

Here is a slide that i found particularly interesting. A thought experiment. If they shut down Halibut fishing for the next 3 years the biomass would only return to the 2016 levels. This illustrates the weakness in the current biomass. No improvements expected until at least 2022.

View attachment 50567

That is interesting. I wonder what the affect would be if they could magically eliminate the largely unaccounted halibut bycatch from Alaska ground fish trawl. ?

Anyway, here is hoping the Canadian delegates science regarding 2-B is well received, and the TAC is an accurate representation of what is going on here. Thankful we have the knowledge and dedication of those representing our fisheries.

 

[ChinookExerciser]

That is interesting. I wonder what the affect would be if they could magically eliminate the largely unaccounted halibut bycatch from Alaska ground fish trawl. ?

Anyway, here is hoping the Canadian delegates science regarding 2-B is well received, and the TAC is an accurate representation of what is going on here. Thankful we have the knowledge and dedication of those representing our fisheries.

If you watch the video at the 2h 40min mark onwards for about 20 mins I think you will find it interesting. He talks about based on information we know today or "retrospectively" that halibut stocks were overfished for a number of years. That being said it's not all bad it's actually relatively stable at current levels where in 2018 they thought that we were info a big decline. So we could be looking a business as usual for a number of years. That's my interpretation tho, Other peoples might be different.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Watching the live webinar now. They’re suggesting 6.22 for 2B and last year was 6.83. So even suggested would only mean a decrease of 60-70k. We had 30k underage I think I read this year. Our morts were under too and combined with how it was the best weather ever, can see same regs doing fine.

They want to reduce 3A from 16.35 mill pounds to 9.63mill pounds. Wow.

 

[ChinookExerciser]

Watching the live webinar now. They’re suggesting 6.22 for 2B and last year was 6.83. So even suggested would only mean a decrease of 60-70k. We had 30k underage I think I read this year. Our morts were under too and combined with how it was the best weather ever, can see same regs doing fine.

They want to reduce 3A from 16.35 mill pounds to 9.63mill pounds. Wow.

5.8 is the base for 2b but apparently they have asked for an adjustment to bring it up to 6.22? That is also the figure based on Status QUO fishing intensity based on biomass. This is from the youtube tho from yesterday not live. I think a lot of this depends on how much they can get alaska to cut their non directed discards. So clearly a lot to be negotiated still.



Keep in mind there can be a big difference between the Reference and what is actually adopted but it seems that 6.22 is actually a fairly conservative number. In past years a higher TCEY was adopted compared to the Reference TCEY.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

at 3hr 25 min they explain why 2B is now so high Essentially Alaska has to account for their U26" halibut discard mortality now and we get savings from that in 2B, Alaska is pushing back a bit obviously but the resolution was adopted I believe.
We had 70k left over this year minus 40k for mortality (only used 20k of that though), in theory that’s 50,000lb underage on the calmest season in 30 years and funky area 121/21 numbers. Looks like could have similar number as last year for TAC...makes ya think what to do.