IPHC Halibut Forecast - further declines

[ChinookExerciser]

I just looked at this chart in detail and it tells a very interesting story even only covering up to the end of June 2019. Wildmanyeah - I understand you have some rather close connections with DFO. I would love to see the 2019 by area breakdown for July Aug and Sept. I think that will confirm what I have suspected and the data till June indicates.

If you have or can get the same chart for all of 2018 that also would be useful.

The attached documents were distributed in August. Wildman has no special information. The 2018 information was shared last year ask your area chair for it or ask members of the halibut committee for it.

you failed to mention the 3rd option which would vastly favour the primary or non-commercial recreational fisher who wants to be able to enjoy their passion and their investments for the most days possible in the year.

For people like myself who have to make the trip over to the island to fish Halibut. It's a nice option to book one more day off the WVCI and get some halibuts. Not sure I would book a second trip just for Halibut. I am sure I am not the only "primary recreation fisher" who does this.

 

[SpringVelocity]

Hey Pat

If Area 19/20 just want a spring season. Why could we not have spring season Area 19/20 March, April, May. Then the north open June, July and August, and it is closed for season. I know it is not popular but you have two sides with completely different fisheries. This has always been the problem of the coast wide model. Maybe it is time to ask the question if that can be an option. Otherwise we are just going to have a divide. I would really like to see that at least looked at.

It seems to me the most fair option or else the size of fish must drop.

 

[profisher]

Why not create an online page where resident license holders can log in up to a slecified date with their license number and vote on all the options the SFAB puts forward. Then it is fair...doesn’t matter if you are from the coast or the prairies...equal say with a single vote. Then go with the majority.

 

[wildmanyeah]

From 2017, wonder what the data looks like from 2018 and 2019. Interesting how different year to year can be in just one area 3500 pounds in March in area 19 in 2017 but in 2019 almost 10k

Then look at the difference in June from 2017 to 2019 27k in 2017 to only 4K in 2019

Would be very interesting to have all the data from all areas if we are all gonna lay out cards on the table and hash it out.

Here's something you can do right away to make a difference....LOG BOOKS. Every single pound of halibut TAC Counts!

An example...because it is fresh in my mind from the SFAB GFSH Working Group meeting Friday...I keep hearing from guys in Area 19 how important March fishery is to them. I get that. An impassioned plea about how there are no halibut in other months like June - August because the doggies show up. Great, I believe you...BUT... the data does not...DFO does not.

I will state up front, there are flaws in our catch monitoring methodology - I could argue all day long about how it could be improved, but the Department's catch monitoring process will not change anytime soon...it is what it is for now.

So...can anyone explain why June has 900 fish or 26,738 pounds of halibut caught in Area 19, when everyone tells me they aren't fishing halibut then? Interesting...how could this be? Put in proper perspective this one month accounts for all the halibut TAC needed to run the months of Feb to April (24,488 pounds). One month...WTF?

A closer look - because the pattern of catch does not make sense to me:

Feb = 469 fish 12,368 pounds
Mar = 138 fish 3,674 pounds
Apr = 324 fish 8,446 pounds
May = 409 fish 13,303 pounds
Jun = 900 fish 26,738 pounds
Jul = 257 fish 8,259 pounds
Aug = 472 fish 14,667 pounds
Sep = 149 fish 3,684 pounds (Only 6 Days fishing)

BTW - from the numbers, March is not as productive as September, and June is the Prime Month.

So, how can this be when everyone says they can't catch hali in June, July, August in Area 19??

I think I know why. Very few guides are completing log books. So every time the DFO plane does an over-flight they are counted as fishing hali. When the creel sampler comes up to the dock, they zero in on the cleaning tables. They never talk to the guy who has a bad day and parks his boat and quietly walks away. The catch per unit of effort (CPUE) becomes skewed, so that any halibut landed and observed form part of a biassed estimate. See where this is going!!

If guides in Area 19 want more TAC, more opportunity, they need to accurately record their catch in a log book, and turn it in. Your catch data will form part of the estimate, and the over-flight data will delete your boat from the skewed biassed catch estimate. That's how it works - they deduct log book trips from over-flight observations.

Shazam - our TAC use will go down. Until we step up and do a better job on log books, we will continue to have over-estimation of our halibut catch. Get your log book, complete accurate records, properly measure each halibut because a few cm is about 70,000 pounds. It all adds up. Every pound counts.

We all have a duty to take a look in the mirror, and see that perhaps we too are part of the problem.

Sorry to use the Area 19 example, but it was the one that stood out the easiest because everyone is telling us they don't catch hali in Area 19 in the month of June. Something does not add up, and it points in my mind to poor catch reporting practices within the rec community.

I strongly suspect this happens everywhere, and explains to some extent why "Huston we have a problem." Imagine a world where we had accurate catch reporting, and how far our TAC use would go down if everyone stepped up.

Game on.

Here is the data from the 2017 harvest report for area 19&20 as a percent of estimated harvest
Month Pounds Percent
Area 19
Feb____12,368___1.09%
Mar____3,674___0.32%
Apr____8,446___0.74%
May___13,303___1.17%
Jun___26,738___2.35%
Jul____8,259___0.73%
Aug___14,667___1.29%
Sep____3,684___0.32%
Total__91,139___8.01%

Area 20
Feb____278___0.02%
Mar___236____0.02%
Apr___1,083___0.10%
May___338____0.03%
Jun___5,269___0.46%
Jul___6,364___0.56%
Aug___3,078___0.27%
Total__16,646__ 1.46%

These numbers show IMHO why we need to keep the start date at Feb 1. Anything less is like throwing them under the bus for no good reason.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

My point Pat was that this season had the most ideal conditions you could have for halibut fishing. I know when we had bad weather years SFAB would always say it was bad weather, have to take that into account that next season more will be caught. The same should be for the reverse. The best weather season on record along with people not having enough time to cancel trips due to salmon restrictions. Add on two of the larger lodges on the coast going down, and I stand by with an April opening we could have same regs as 2019 with 90,000lbs less quota and make it through, or damn close. Add on top of that the overage provision we now have and there would be no early season closure (realize that comes back on us though). I'd say the track record of making these hypothesis on poundage caught with certain regs have been good (only got it wrong in 2017).

 

[ChinookExerciser]

If searun is right and we have to cut 150k there is no easy way to do it if we want to keep the same size as last year. I does not look like you can do it buy just cutting from september on...you would run the risk of running out of quota before August or worse we go way over our quota, then get penalized in 2021. If you run the 2018 regs that were hugely unpopular you would still have to cut some months out.

No easy answers, Screwing over the South Islands small boat halibut early season fishery does not make much sense. Perhaps profisher is right you cut out something like cutting out May or june but keep March/April and then ending at the end of august might be the answer.

What Clear is NO ONE WANTS A SMALLER SIZE DON'T DO THAT TO US AGAIN.

 

[wolf]

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SEASON OPENS EARLY !!!!!!FEB or MARCH(as the take in those months is minimal) and closes in oct if you really want to give something up not alot of people fish in fall months and if you cant get 6 halibut in the spring and summer well you SUCK. Also what about the carry over from last year if we have unused "quota" then we should be able to apply it over again.. just like the commies...

 

[terrin]

Why not create an online page where resident license holders can log in up to a slecified date with their license number and vote on all the options the SFAB puts forward. Then it is fair...doesn’t matter if you are from the coast or the prairies...equal say with a single vote. Then go with the majority.

Sounds pretty democratic, only thing I would add is those same resident license holders should have input into the selected options for voting as well.

 

[Derby]

Why not create an online page where resident license holders can log in up to a slecified date with their license number and vote on all the options the SFAB puts forward. Then it is fair...doesn’t matter if you are from the coast or the prairies...equal say with a single vote. Then go with the majority.[/QUOTE

I would say why not just get involve in the SFAC in the area u fish and be on there email train and u get all the info and be part of the decision? that being said the SFAC is looking at your input & suggestion on how they can be better.. I believe u would have seen that survey poll sent out bye your local SFAC last month ?.. if not that would be good suggestion which I believe u still have time for input..

 

[searun]

NO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SEASON OPENS EARLY !!!!!!FEB or MARCH(as the take in those months is minimal) and closes in oct if you really want to give something up not alot of people fish in fall months and if you cant get 6 halibut in the spring and summer well you SUCK. Also what about the carry over from last year if we have unused "quota" then we should be able to apply it over again.. just like the commies...

Points of information - hope they help provide some additional context:

1. We won't be starting in February. The IHPC doesn't meet until February, and the SFAB meetings aren't until Feb 14-16, so there simply isn't a way to determine what TAC Canada gets, and then make a decision on which regulations to put in place in order to have a fishery. Don't forget that whatever regulations we had in 2019, are what we would run with until the new fishing licenses come out for April 1...so you can't change the rules until the new license year if you needed to slow down the catch engine a bit.

2. The numbers I put up are only based on the IPHC staff assessment that ends up in the decision tables that the Commissioners and Conference Boards are provided and debate at the IPHC in Alaska this year. What is ultimately decided can vary from the IPHC staff recommendations. So to be clear, my numbers are based on what we know today, not what will happen after the IPHC meetings in February. Canada's final 2019 recreational halibut numbers are still being tallied, and have not yet been officially sent to the IPHC - preliminary numbers indicated we would finish the season with a small underage.

3. If we do take a reduction in 2020 TAC, it is pretty clear we are not likely going to be able to have a full season as defined by a March start, and a December finish, and roll over the 2019 regulations. Something has to change because as the saying goes, we can't SUCK and BLOW at the same time. So the options or preferences I put up are simply some of the more common ones often discussed...there are literally thousands of possible choices.

4. It's a big coast, with vastly different fisheries. There are just as many people interested in a fall fishery as a spring fishery - so to be fair, both options are equally important coast-wide and should in my opinion merit full consideration.

5. The SFAB has consistently asked the Department for an underage carry-over. We were successful in obtaining an overage carry over - meaning any overage in one year, would be deducted from the following year's TAC. We actually used that this season when the preliminary assessment determined we could be over and there was pressure to close in September. We used this provision to allow time to complete a full assessment and re-examine the numbers based on input from the SFAB and DFO staff - result being there were changes made to the calculations which resulted in less TAC used, thus we could continue fishing. The main reason DFO isn't looking at allowing an underage carry-over is the estimation process for calculating our TAC takes considerable effort and as some on this forum have said, the estimation methodology isn't as precise in real-time as we all would like it to be...thus the reluctance at this time. I'm not making excuses, just trying to provide some background as to some (not all) of the issues. Changes coming to how we record our catch may improve that data precision, for example, we will ultimately get to a place where the recording your catch "in ink" on a paper license will change....allowing us to use an electronic license to record and collect catch data in real time. Those changes aren't yet in place, but we are close. Real-time catch data will greatly enhance our catch monitoring and build trust with other stakeholders in the reliability of our catch data.

 

[profisher]

Derby that has never happened and never will. It is not just the SFAB meetings, it is any society meetings ,AGM's etc...same die hards show up and that is it. So if the people won't come to a meeting then the meeting should go to the people. At that point if anyone ******* at the outcome and they didn't vote you can without hesitation tell them to go f&(k themselves.

 

[searun]

Hey Pat

If Area 19/20 just want a spring season. Why could we not have spring season Area 19/20 March, April, May. Then the north open June, July and August, and it is closed for season. I know it is not popular but you have two sides with completely different fisheries. This has always been the problem of the coast wide model. Maybe it is time to ask the question if that can be an option. Otherwise we are just going to have a divide. I would really like to see that at least looked at.

It seems to me the most fair option or else the size of fish must drop.

That idea has come up and been hotly debated before. I thought it was a decent idea initially, but was challenged to re-examine that after hearing more of the arguments and seeing the effort data from the creel surveys and over-flight data.

The reluctance with going there is some argue spatial closures only serve to move effort around. This is especially relevant in areas within relative close proximity of one another. Not uncommon for people from Areas 19/20 to move up island, and conversely for people from other areas (me) to become interlopers. The overall objective of the slot size limits is to slow the catch engine and spread out that TAC across a wide period of time to enable a full season (February to December). We did see quite a bit of shifting effort resulting from the Chinook Regulations last summer as another example of how mobile the fleet really is.

 

[Derby]

Derby that has never happened and never will. It is not just the SFAB meetings, it is any society meetings ,AGM's etc...same die hards show up and that is it. So if the people won't come to a meeting then the meeting should go to the people. At that point if anyone ******* at the outcome and they didn't vote you can without hesitation tell them to go f&(k themselves.

If haven't seen the survey then perhaps ask Chris or are you no longer part of your area 19/20? if you did the survey u do actually have the opportunity to put in those suggestion and pretty much anything u would like to see..take the opportunity and fill out.. if you dont then that will be your choice..

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Disagree with your point 3 STRONGLY Pat (minus maybe December finish but it would make it through September). It depends on how much of a reduction we get. Up to 90k we could make it through to September from March or April for sure. 10% increase due to weather is not out of the question (hence why Sfab always puts in a 10% buffer), nevermind two closed lodges, and reduced effort as less and less people fish period.

 

[terrin]

If haven't seen the survey then perhaps ask Chris or are you no longer part of your area 19/20? if you did the survey u do actually have the opportunity to put in those suggestion and pretty much anything u would like to see..take the opportunity and fill out.. if you dont then that will be your choice..

Ok I'll bite. I used to go over to the Island a couple of times a season to fish and relax. At that time you were allowed 2 per day 3 possession. Since then the Ferry rates doubled and Your only allowed 1 Halibut <126 cm . I never caught more than my 3 in any given year if I was lucky and never even thought about High grading. So if your asking the guy that doesn't live right out front of the fishing grounds I would be great with a 2 fish yearly limit of whatever size is determined to be ok and be able to catch them in one go. Now I simply don't bother fishing the Island much anymore (once in last ten years). Maybe this was all put in place by design to discourage guys like me from going Halibut fishing and I guess it worked. I got slammed before when I brought this up by the special interest patrol and i'm sure this time will be no different. Those same interests would not like a 1 Tuna per day limit and I don't blame them because with global warming and the high cost of our limited resource called fuel it just does not make sense. I live in an area that has some great prawning areas and still would prefer to go out and try and get 200 per day vs burning more fuel to go on two days to do the same and I still feel this way even though I can get on the spots in less than 1/2 hour from the dock. This does not work for someone that does not live right on the coast. I guess like always depends on whose ox is getting gored but at least be honest about it.

 

[searun]

Disagree with your point 3 STRONGLY Pat (minus maybe December finish but it would make it through September). It depends on how much of a reduction we get. Up to 90k we could make it through to September from March or April for sure. 10% increase due to weather is not out of the question (hence why Sfab always puts in a 10% buffer), nevermind two closed lodges, and reduced effort as less and less people fish period.

Like I said, you can't suck and blow at same time...a 90K reduction means either a late start or early finish but not a full season. So its an "either or" situation not a full season March to December. What most people do not understand is behind the scenes the Halibut Committee and DFO reviews the creel data once it becomes available and makes an in-season assessment. Those assessments are delayed for several weeks into the next month while the data is being tallied.

Why is that a big deal? Why don't we just make the decision when the data comes in? Well, if for example, we are conducting our assessment in July it is highly likely we would not have full confidence there would be enough TAC to complete the season beyond August..... leading to a lot of pressure to close the fishery or risk having to use the overage provision.

Most people will want to steer clear of using the overage provision unless there is a degree of confidence we would still have TAC after August and enough to get us to the end of September....because when we get that data in mid-September, it is too late to put the Genie back in the bottle once we use up the TAC. Based on what we saw this season, if we lost 90K in TAC that would have resulted in a September closure at some point in the month...I think, because the final numbers are not yet in.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

^ terrins comment slows between new hali regs and salmon regs effort will decrease

 

[wildmanyeah]

I think the regs this year was a success and I thank everyone that made that happen as well as making a big effort to get everyone’s input on them.

IMO going to a smaller option would be taking a step backwards.

So that leaves then the only option of having a short season

I personally think having the season open in March, April, May and June when there is no salmon option to be must.. The late part of the season may be important to some areas but my guess is Thoes areas also have a salmon option late summer early fall. As well as Other goundfish.

People can be retrained to go earlier in the season.

Having the halibut season end at the start of August. Would probably no be the end of the world but it’s pretty clear starting the season late would be the end of the world for area 19/20. All the June and July lodge guests would also still be able to get halibut.

I guess what I’m asking is having August open make it or break it.

 

[profisher]

With the rock slide as DFO ammo for 2020 there may be little salmon retention in 2020. I’m just looking at the annual trend on salmon seasons and could easily see this being used by NgO’s to further their agenda. They seem to get what they want. In that scenario there is just as likely to be more halibut effort.

 

[ziggy]

Ok I'll bite. I used to go over to the Island a couple of times a season to fish and relax. At that time you were allowed 2 per day 3 possession. Since then the Ferry rates doubled and Your only allowed 1 Halibut <126 cm . I never caught more than my 3 in any given year if I was lucky and never even thought about High grading. So if your asking the guy that doesn't live right out front of the fishing grounds I would be great with a 2 fish yearly limit of whatever size is determined to be ok and be able to catch them in one go. Now I simply don't bother fishing the Island much anymore (once in last ten years). Maybe this was all put in place by design to discourage guys like me from going Halibut fishing and I guess it worked. I got slammed before when I brought this up by the special interest patrol and i'm sure this time will be no different. Those same interests would not like a 1 Tuna per day limit and I don't blame them because with global warming and the high cost of our limited resource called fuel it just does not make sense. I live in an area that has some great prawning areas and still would prefer to go out and try and get 200 per day vs burning more fuel to go on two days to do the same and I still feel this way even though I can get on the spots in less than 1/2 hour from the dock. This does not work for someone that does not live right on the coast. I guess like always depends on whose ox is getting gored but at least be honest about it.[/


Is that why the vast amount of Halibut are taken on the North Coast as opposed to South Coast in June ,July and August? Because “the guys that live right out front the fishing grounds” take them? Seems strange the more sparsely populated part of the Coast catches all the fish in June July and August? Wonder if one were to divide the TAC and see what the per capita differences were between North and South in the summer were would support the theory that the locals are catching the fish?