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Fishery Notice
Category(s): COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine
COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll
RECREATIONAL - Salmon
Subject: FN0505-Salmon: Fraser River Sockeye Update - July 13 - Areas 11 to 29
The Fraser River Panel (Panel) of the Pacific Salmon Commission has developed
management plans for 2009 Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon fisheries in
Panel Area waters. Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of
Fraser River sockeye and pink salmon abundance to the Panel, as well as a
schedule for calculating sockeye spawning escapement targets at different run
sizes. For planning fisheries, the Panel adopted the 75% probability level pre-
season forecast for Early Stuart sockeye (165,000 fish), and the 50%
probability level pre-season forecasts for Early Summer-run (739,000 fish),
Summer-run (8,677,000 fish), Birkenhead (334,000 fish), True Late-run (573,000
fish) and for Fraser River pink salmon (17,535,000 fish).
The problem of early entry of Late-run sockeye stocks has continued every year
since 1996 and it continues to adversely impact their survival and
productivity, substantially reducing harvest opportunities on these stocks and
on co-migrating Summer-run sockeye salmon. The in-river mortality rate of Late-
run sockeye has varied substantially since 1996. However, the high in-river
mortality rate experienced by several Late-run stocks continues to pose a
serious conservation problem and there is a special concern for Cultus sockeye
for which recovery efforts have been implemented by Canada to ensure this
stock's long term viability. The Panel remains concerned about this phenomenon
and the 2009 management plan was developed under the assumption that this
abnormal upstream migratory behavior of Late-run sockeye will continue and that
substantial in-river mortality will occur. Panel management objectives and
actions implemented in 2009 will place a high priority on conserving Fraser
River Late-run sockeye (which include Cultus Lake sockeye).
Commercial fisheries in Panel Areas this year will be directed at Summer-run
sockeye, with fisheries openings concentrated in late July and early August to
reduce effects on the weaker Early Stuart, Early Summer-run and Late-run
sockeye stock groupings. Commercial fishery openings in Panel Area waters in
2009 will be based on abundance estimates and run timing of sockeye and pink
salmon, and on their corresponding spawning escapement needs. Assuming that
actual, in-season updated run sizes for Early Summer-run and Summer-run sockeye
salmon are approximately at the 50% probability level forecast of abundance,
and that the runs arrive at near normal dates, some low impact fisheries in
Panel Areas would be expected to commence during the week of July 19 to 25. If
the in-season estimated return abundances of Early Summer-run and Summer-run
sockeye vary from the 50% probability level forecasts, the projected start
dates and duration of fisheries may be adjusted. Conservation concerns for
other species and stocks identified by Canada and the United States will be
taken into account throughout the 2009 management season. Fisheries targeting
Fraser River pink salmon will be constrained by conservation requirements
approved by the Panel for Late-run sockeye stocks until late in the season,
after the majority of Late-run sockeye have cleared marine waters.
The Panel met July 10th to examine biological and other assessment data on
Fraser River sockeye salmon. In general, test fishing catches in marine and
Fraser River assessment areas have continued to indicate a low migration of
sockeye salmon thus far this season. Estimates of Fraser River sockeye
escapement past Mission and observations of sockeye passing Hells Gate
similarly have also been low.
At the meeting July 10th, the Fraser River Panel approved a decrease in the run
size estimate of Early Stuart sockeye from their 75% probability level forecast
of abundance of 165,000 fish to 140,000 fish. The 50% migration timing of Early
Stuart sockeye through Area 20 is estimated to be June 29, which is five days
earlier than the pre-season forecast. The estimated escapement of Early Stuart
sockeye past Mission through July 9 is approximately 91,000 fish.
The June 1 snow-pack update indicated that the upper Fraser River watershed was
above normal, while levels in the mid and lower portions of the watershed were
below normal. The warm weather in the Fraser River watershed through much of
June has reduced the snow-pack. On July 9 the discharge of the Fraser River at
Hope was approximately 4,600 cms, which is approximately 23% lower than average
for this date. The temperature of the Fraser River at Qualark Creek on July 9
was 15.8 0C, which is 0.4 0C higher than average for this date. At the meeting
today, after reviewing environmental and stock assessment information, the
Panel approved a decrease in the management adjustment factor for Early Stuart
sockeye from the pre-season estimate of 0.46 to 0.33. Management adjustments
are employed to help achieve spawning escapement targets for Fraser River
sockeye. Present long-range forecasts project that Early Stuart, Early Summer-
run and Summer-run sockeye will encounter lower than average Fraser River
discharge this season while water temperatures will be slightly above average.
Environmental data collected in the Fraser River watershed through DFO's
Environmental Watch program, will be included in weekly in-season news releases
from the Pacific Salmon Commission. Fraser River discharge levels and water
temperatures will be monitored closely this summer to guide specific Panel
management actions that may be required during the in-river sockeye migratory
period to help achieve escapement goals.
There are no planned sockeye fisheries at this time.
Next Panel meeting is July 14th.
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
Barry Rosenberger 250-851-4892
Fisheries & Oceans Operations Center - FN0505
Sent July 13, 2009 at 1029