Early Halibut Opening

[searun]

Whose question? If you mean mine, I don’t see anywhere where the process of data gathering was discussed regarding when/ how often?

My earlier reply did actually set out how the Halibut Working Group and DFO receives catch data explaining there are delays (usually a month after the fact) in getting those creel estimates that make things challenging - but I'll break it down in basic steps that give you more detail to try to help paint the picture why these data delays exist.

The process of gathering data and producing estimates of catch is a LOT of work effort and takes considerable time. There is no real-time data available to make decisions which creates challenges to respond in-season and make meaningful fishery changes without some risk things on the fishing grounds can change quickly making decisions based on older data redundant. So when the Halibut WG is trying to make a decision in August to adjust the regulations to address a low catch trend observed in the early data, ...the most up to date data they have is actually largely February to May data with some preliminary June data in the mix. And, most of the halibut TAC is caught in June to August.

All that is needed to really screw up a catch trend is for a couple of simple things to happen like abnormally good weather and salmon fishing. That situation leads to big swings in angler halibut effort because salmon fishing was so good they got all their fish early and now have time to go after halibut in ideal weather conditions which, in turn, drives a catch trend dramatically upward beyond earlier trends that you just made decisions about.

These are basic steps - not a complete description of everything that is done to produce catch estimates.

Basic Creel Estimate process

1) DFO collects Catch per unit effort (CPUE) via dockside creel surveyors - pretty sure everyone here has encountered them and is helpful answering their survey questions accurately
2) DFO conducts over-flights to count the vessels during the main periods of the summery fishery - usually weekly in peak season, but weather dependant
3) DFO runs the IRec internet survey, collecting catch data - 100% of all license holders are surveyed
4) DFO collects lodge and guidebook data (not all lodge/guide log books are available in-season so there is always post season work to gather log books and then make adjustments to the preliminary data....which is one reason why even in January, we don't have the final adjusted estimates)
5) DFO then creates estimates by taking the CPUE from Creel, applies those to average catches to the vessel counts created by the over-flight data to produce a preliminary estimate
6) Lodge and Creel data represent actual catch data (not an estimate) - those numbers are then deducted from the overflight/creel estimates to remove any bias created by applying the average CPUE to guide and lodge boats where we know the exact catch of vessels that were observed and counted by the flight on the days and places where creel flights took place
7) IRec estimates are used to in-fill locations and times where there is no creel/overflight or lodge & guide log data available - there are corrections made to IRec estimates based on applying a calibration to correct estimate bias
8) All these data sources are then pulled together to complete a final monthly creel estimate.

Note - because there are delays in gathering, verifying, collating and checking these data sources that creates about a 1 month delay between the time data collection take place and when they become available as catch estimates for the Halibut Working Group and DFO to consider when deciding how to make adjustments to the fishery regulations using the few tools we have to adjust halibut catch up or down to try to create a full season, while optimizing use of our TAC.

 

[ziggy]

Thanks, that was what I was interested in. How current data is and how often it’s received and when if goes to a decision making process.

 

[wildmanyeah]

My earlier reply did actually set out how the Halibut Working Group and DFO receives catch data explaining there are delays (usually a month after the fact) in getting those creel estimates that make things challenging - but I'll break it down in basic steps that give you more detail to try to help paint the picture why these data delays exist.

The process of gathering data and producing estimates of catch is a LOT of work effort and takes considerable time. There is no real-time data available to make decisions which creates challenges to respond in-season and make meaningful fishery changes without some risk things on the fishing grounds can change quickly making decisions based on older data redundant. So when the Halibut WG is trying to make a decision in August to adjust the regulations to address a low catch trend observed in the early data, ...the most up to date data they have is actually largely February to May data with some preliminary June data in the mix. And, most of the halibut TAC is caught in June to August.

All that is needed to really screw up a catch trend is for a couple of simple things to happen like abnormally good weather and salmon fishing. That situation leads to big swings in angler halibut effort because salmon fishing was so good they got all their fish early and now have time to go after halibut in ideal weather conditions which, in turn, drives a catch trend dramatically upward beyond earlier trends that you just made decisions about.

These are basic steps - not a complete description of everything that is done to produce catch estimates.

Basic Creel Estimate process

1) DFO collects Catch per unit effort (CPUE) via dockside creel surveyors - pretty sure everyone here has encountered them and is helpful answering their survey questions accurately
2) DFO conducts over-flights to count the vessels during the main periods of the summery fishery - usually weekly in peak season, but weather dependant
3) DFO runs the IRec internet survey, collecting catch data - 100% of all license holders are surveyed
4) DFO collects lodge and guidebook data (not all lodge/guide log books are available in-season so there is always post season work to gather log books and then make adjustments to the preliminary data....which is one reason why even in January, we don't have the final adjusted estimates)
5) DFO then creates estimates by taking the CPUE from Creel, applies those to average catches to the vessel counts created by the over-flight data to produce a preliminary estimate
6) Lodge and Creel data represent actual catch data (not an estimate) - those numbers are then deducted from the overflight/creel estimates to remove any bias created by applying the average CPUE to guide and lodge boats where we know the exact catch of vessels that were observed and counted by the flight on the days and places where creel flights took place
7) IRec estimates are used to in-fill locations and times where there is no creel/overflight or lodge & guide log data available - there are corrections made to IRec estimates based on applying a calibration to correct estimate bias
8) All these data sources are then pulled together to complete a final monthly creel estimate.

Note - because there are delays in gathering, verifying, collating and checking these data sources that creates about a 1 month delay between the time data collection take place and when they become available as catch estimates for the Halibut Working Group and DFO to consider when deciding how to make adjustments to the fishery regulations using the few tools we have to adjust halibut catch up or down to try to create a full season, while optimizing use of our TAC.

Thanks for taking the time

 

[searun]

Thanks, a lot of how these decisions were reached was a mystery to me before getting involved in the SFAB process, so understand and appreciate the questions. Before getting more involved, I was sharply critical of a lot of DFO decision making.

Afterwards getting to see how many of fishery managers engaged in various elements of gathering all the data etc really cared and worked hard to support reaching difficult decisions changed my perspective. Similarly, there are many SFAB volunteers who are very skilled and knowledgable on fishery management - people like many on this forum who have very high commitment to trying to do the right thing for our fishery. These are complicated fisheries to manage with lots of moving parts and a great deal of uncertainty.

Hard to get it right for DFO staff and SFAB volunteers, while satisfying everyone's interests. Especially when those interests are vastly different from one fishery area to the next, where we hear from South VI that its absolutely critical they have a Feb start on one end of the spectrum and on the other the North Coast wants the fishery open until December...and everyone also wants the core months of June to September open with access to larger fish.

 

[Rain City]

Thanks, a lot of how these decisions were reached was a mystery to me before getting involved in the SFAB process, so understand and appreciate the questions. Before getting more involved, I was sharply critical of a lot of DFO decision making.

Afterwards getting to see how many of fishery managers engaged in various elements of gathering all the data etc really cared and worked hard to support reaching difficult decisions changed my perspective. Similarly, there are many SFAB volunteers who are very skilled and knowledgable on fishery management - people like many on this forum who have very high commitment to trying to do the right thing for our fishery. These are complicated fisheries to manage with lots of moving parts and a great deal of uncertainty.

Hard to get it right for DFO staff and SFAB volunteers, while satisfying everyone's interests. Especially when those interests are vastly different from one fishery area to the next, where we hear from South VI that its absolutely critical they have a Feb start on one end of the spectrum and on the other the North Coast wants the fishery open until December...and everyone also wants the core months of June to September open with access to larger fish.

I know one goal that could be supported across the board. Take the West Coast fisheries management out of Ottawa's hands.

 

[Dale66]

Good job by people at meeting our sector only down about 40000 lbs compared to last year despite worry about 10-15 percant reduction

 

[wildmanyeah]

 

[wildmanyeah]

Good job by people at meeting our sector only down about 40000 lbs compared to last year despite worry about 10-15 percant reduction

I did not watch this year but I know since around 2019 they have been robbing Peter to pay Paul with the expectation there was a younger age class that had good numbers is going to come though in the years ahead.

 

[Salmonslayer1992]

I’m I wrong that First Nations food fishing for halibut don’t have to record their catch? I’m just wondering, because if dfo is using catch data as a way too decide on openings/closures and daily catch limits, shouldn’t First Nations food fishing for halibut also be considered when determining how many Halibut have been harvested?

 

[bryce]

I’m I wrong that First Nations food fishing for halibut don’t have to record their catch? I’m just wondering, because if dfo is using catch data as a way too decide on openings/closures and daily catch limits, shouldn’t First Nations food fishing for halibut also be considered when determining how many Halibut have been harvested?

First Nations have their own percentage of the quota.

 

[searun]

I’m I wrong that First Nations food fishing for halibut don’t have to record their catch? I’m just wondering, because if dfo is using catch data as a way too decide on openings/closures and daily catch limits, shouldn’t First Nations food fishing for halibut also be considered when determining how many Halibut have been harvested?

Yes, they are counted in the allocation under subsistence (405,000 lbs). The table below is the 2023 Canadian catch report to IPHC

 

[Salmonslayer1992]

Yes, they are counted in the allocation under subsistence (405,000 lbs). The table below is the 2023 Canadian catch report to IPHC View attachment 102292

Thank you for that.

 

[searun]

Good job by people at meeting our sector only down about 40000 lbs compared to last year despite worry about 10-15 percant reduction

DFO will work out the deductions for Discard (release) mortality in the Recreational fishery as well as our share of the non-directed discard mortality adjustments. Did some rough napkin math and depending on how you count its between 44,000 - 53,700 - conservatively speaking I would lean towards higher end of the range. Potentially some additional reduction applied to account for the 2023 overage - possibly another 9,000 or so. Take the range as just speculation until the final deductions are sorted.

 

[ziggy]

DFO will work out the deductions for Discard (release) mortality in the Recreational fishery as well as our share of the non-directed discard mortality adjustments. Did some rough napkin math and depending on how you count its between 44,000 - 53,700 - conservatively speaking I would lean towards higher end of the range. Potentially some additional reduction applied to account for the 2023 overage - possibly another 9,000 or so. Take the range as just speculation until the final deductions are sorted.

Is the overall plan plan to try and have a full season or is that as yet to be decided?

 

[searun]

The SFAB created a set of guiding principles for the Halibut WG to follow when selecting options - one is to have the longest season possible. The lower our TAC goes, there will come a point where we eventually would have to decide which months in the season are most important to ensure we have full fishery opportunities taking place within those months.

Either end of the season (early and late) then become where you would likely trim. Don't think we are there yet.

IMO last season was anomalous, and how fast we used TAC was driven by factors such as good weather, great salmon fishing, and allowing retention of 2 smaller fish in one day. The biomass is changing rapidly, and will be dominated by smaller fish. So if you want to slow down how fast we use TAC in that situation, lower the small size from 90 cm. Another big factor is to stick with 1 daily until we are in mid-August where there is data available up to the end of June so we have a better sense of how we track.

 

[wolf]

IMO last season was anomalous, and how fast we used TAC was driven by factors such as good weather, great salmon fishing, and allowing retention of 2 smaller fish in one day. The biomass is changing rapidly, and will be dominated by smaller fish. So if you want to slow down how fast we use TAC in that situation, lower the small size from 90 cm. Another big factor is to stick with 1 daily until we are in mid-August where there is data available up to the end of June so we have a better sense of how we track.

Im sorry this is nothing new when they said this to us in last meting we ahve been getting our salmon first then go for halibut vice versa nothing has changed that in 30 plus years. and to blame that on good weather . Ill be the elephant in the room and say WHY it was , it because the main lodges in carlottes wanted the 2 a day plain and simple... and it got "used" up

 

[searun]

Im sorry this is nothing new when they said this to us in last meting we ahve been getting our salmon first then go for halibut vice versa nothing has changed that in 30 plus years. and to blame that on good weather . Ill be the elephant in the room and say WHY it was , it because the main lodges in carlottes wanted the 2 a day plain and simple... and it got "used" up

And you know that because you were part of making the decision? I was, and that ain't it.

 

[Derby]

.

And you know that because you were part of making the decision? I was, and that ain't it.

100% correct

 

[wildmanyeah]

The data per area is here if people want to look at i

https://www.iphc.int/uploads/2024/01/IPHC-2024-AM100-NR01-Rev_1-Canada.pdf

 

[Dale66]

Some fishy numbers from certain areas look high…very high…how do they calcualate some of these? 2019 had better limits two fish posesion of 126 and 90 and used around 800000..how’s this yrs numbers make sence