SpringVelocity
Crew Member
Those Robertson fish are caught from the Alaska border all the way to the hatchery, proven thru DNA testing. Without them Chinook fishing would be pretty unproductive
Yep
Those Robertson fish are caught from the Alaska border all the way to the hatchery, proven thru DNA testing. Without them Chinook fishing would be pretty unproductive
Touched on it somewhat with one of our members that comercial fishes and by what he said it was the same offshore.
Confirmed. We put 1,800 springs to hand this year.
Average spawner size was 12 to 15 pounds.
Only a small handful over 20 lbs.
Never seen anything like it.
Hoping it isn't the beginning of a trend...
Nog
I can confirm that seals only steal tyee class fish. Every GD time!Lot of interesting theories. My observations from guiding in Barkley Sound for 23 seasons is there has been a decline in size at age of returning Chinook. We also observed greater than usual numbers of small chinook. In particular, I observed increasing numbers of female chinook under 77cm length. Notable because DFO science has always considered 77 cm as a break point where the majority of adults are male. Important because if we are planning fishery regulations to maximize returns of larger spawning females, this has been used as a regulatory response to manage the fishery to select more males than females. So size at age is a big deal.
My thought after researching potential reasons for declining size at age is this is largely related to the ongoing effects of predation from mammals - researchers hypothesize this is expanding NRKW populations - however I differ in opinion suggesting it is likely mostly sea lions - selecting larger prey per research from Dr. Carl Walters. Findings are noted in attached EPA study - https://www.epa.gov/salish-sea/chinook-salmon
I appreciate researchers in the EPA study note Northern Resident Killer Whales have been increasing their population, and to the point where it is thought they are impacting the number of larger returning chinook to the detriment of their SRKW cousins. This is another strong hypothesis as to declining size at age in Chinook, but overlooks the impact of other marine mammals such as sea lions. On a side note, while I concur NRKW are competing for food to detriment of SRKW - the broader reason behind why SRKW had foraging difficulty first observed in 2017 and later seen to be improving in 2021 - IMO the improving forage success in SRKW is more related to; 1) change in the matriarchal leadership to younger female whales who are better at locating Chinook; 2) measures to keep vessels - particularly WW vessels at a distance to allow undisturbed foraging activity.
I also question the hatchery practices - particularly indiscriminate mixing the eggs/sperm and not adopting a selective breeding approach for a portion of the hatchery production to select for size and ensure a mix of larger returning adults. There are concerns within DFO regarding the declining fecundity (number of eggs) each returning female represents, leading to increasing the brood target from 20,000 to at least 25,000 adults.
I have also attached the summary conclusion section for quick reference.
5 CONCLUSIONS
Chinook salmon are highly valued for their large size and nutritional value by humans and apex predators alike. Here, we report on the loss of the largest and oldest fish from many populations across the west coast of North America. Declines in size-at-age were found to be common coast-wide and were most pronounced in northern populations. The southernmost populations, in contrast, showed no or week trends in size-at-age. Furthermore, while the loss of the oldest fish and corresponding decline in mean age was found for the majority of populations, trends in age compositions differed between regions. Most notably, populations from British Columbia for which we had data did not follow the decline in mean age.
Our qualitative assessment of the potential causes of changes in age-size structure suggests that common hypotheses such as harvest, environmental change and hatchery effects are not consistent with nor sufficient to explain observed patterns of demographic change in Chinook salmon observed across space and time. The causes of the declining size and age trends are likely complex and involve multiple factors that may interact. Changes in predation rates on the oldest and largest fish by expanding populations of resident killer whales is a hypothesis that appears largely consistent with the observed changes, but it remains untested. In the light of the presented findings, this and other hypotheses should be evaluated in more detail in future studies before firm conclusions about the underlying causes can be drawn.
deoends on the age class i would think
With 1,800 to hand, we captured pretty well all available age classes this year.
More intel coming from marked fish, which I will share when in hand.
@searun: Agree with your assessment. Toss in the huge volumes of clones Alaska and others dump annually, and we do indeed have a problem.
Cheers
2021 was the 8th best ocean productivity conditions experienced in a long while in the north pacific according to NOAA study. Sort of anticipated we would see larger fish, but that did not materialize. The size at age could be a response to predation - in other words, if you are smaller your survival is higher because the sea lions like fat smarties as opposed to skinny ones.Any chance this could be a left over effect of the 'Blob'. I recall distinctly reading the mass of warmth led to nutrient deficient water that would have a ripple effect up from all the lower-end keystone species. Or perhaps, we would have seen that a year or two ago?
Another indicator for me is seeing more fish with serious healed predator scars. Amazing they could survive what appear to be very significant wounds.
View attachment 84969
Lot of interesting theories. My observations from guiding in Barkley Sound for 23 seasons is there has been a decline in size at age of returning Chinook. We also observed greater than usual numbers of small chinook. In particular, I observed increasing numbers of female chinook under 77cm length. Notable because DFO science has always considered 77 cm as a break point where the majority of adults are male. Important because if we are planning fishery regulations to maximize returns of larger spawning females, this has been used as a regulatory response to manage the fishery to select more males than females. So size at age is a big deal.
My thought after researching potential reasons for declining size at age is this is largely related to the ongoing effects of predation from mammals - researchers hypothesize this is expanding NRKW populations - however I differ in opinion suggesting it is likely mostly sea lions - selecting larger prey per research from Dr. Carl Walters. Findings are noted in attached EPA study - https://www.epa.gov/salish-sea/chinook-salmon
I appreciate researchers in the EPA study note Northern Resident Killer Whales have been increasing their population, and to the point where it is thought they are impacting the number of larger returning chinook to the detriment of their SRKW cousins. This is another strong hypothesis as to declining size at age in Chinook, but overlooks the impact of other marine mammals such as sea lions. On a side note, while I concur NRKW are competing for food to detriment of SRKW - the broader reason behind why SRKW had foraging difficulty first observed in 2017 and later seen to be improving in 2021 - IMO the improving forage success in SRKW is more related to; 1) change in the matriarchal leadership to younger female whales who are better at locating Chinook; 2) measures to keep vessels - particularly WW vessels at a distance to allow undisturbed foraging activity.
I also question the hatchery practices - particularly indiscriminate mixing the eggs/sperm and not adopting a selective breeding approach for a portion of the hatchery production to select for size and ensure a mix of larger returning adults. There are concerns within DFO regarding the declining fecundity (number of eggs) each returning female represents, leading to increasing the brood target from 20,000 to at least 25,000 adults.
I have also attached the summary conclusion section for quick reference.
5 CONCLUSIONS
Chinook salmon are highly valued for their large size and nutritional value by humans and apex predators alike. Here, we report on the loss of the largest and oldest fish from many populations across the west coast of North America. Declines in size-at-age were found to be common coast-wide and were most pronounced in northern populations. The southernmost populations, in contrast, showed no or week trends in size-at-age. Furthermore, while the loss of the oldest fish and corresponding decline in mean age was found for the majority of populations, trends in age compositions differed between regions. Most notably, populations from British Columbia for which we had data did not follow the decline in mean age.
Our qualitative assessment of the potential causes of changes in age-size structure suggests that common hypotheses such as harvest, environmental change and hatchery effects are not consistent with nor sufficient to explain observed patterns of demographic change in Chinook salmon observed across space and time. The causes of the declining size and age trends are likely complex and involve multiple factors that may interact. Changes in predation rates on the oldest and largest fish by expanding populations of resident killer whales is a hypothesis that appears largely consistent with the observed changes, but it remains untested. In the light of the presented findings, this and other hypotheses should be evaluated in more detail in future studies before firm conclusions about the underlying causes can be drawn.