Barkley Sound Small Springs

When I was a commercial troller we found that most of the really big guys found a way to get off. They would break leaders, bend hooks, rip swivels apart, tangle in other lines, etc etc.
When I am sport fishing, the bigger fish just take a bit longer to play out before netting.
Could it be that selective fishing by sportfisherman is part of the problem?
 
Same story for me. Was fishing in Barkley Sound for five days in mid-August and most springs were in the 10 - 15 pound range. The only bigger spring (22 pounds) was caught at Pachena Bay. Maybe a Columbia River fish given that all the other fish were much smaller.

Almost all the springs we caught were males and had empty stomachs. In June, the stomachs we sampled had very small bait.
 
I see lots of nice chinooks being caught this year and their sizes are way down, something has do with climate changes. The food chain is missing…not enough bait. Herring stocks are fewer and been overfished. My opinion.
 
Pilchards were common in the Barkley Sound area and offshore ten years ago. The average size of springs seemed to be bigger then. I remember one day at the Turtle Head offshore of Ukee we limited on springs in the mid to high 20s. I wonder if the bigger size bait has anything to do with the smaller size fish? Maybe the pilchards/bigger size bait fish are more calory ritch? Picture is from 10 years ago fishing the banks with big spoons and plugs.
 

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i've seen probably over 15 tyees for the fraser this year confirmed on various social networks. This is pretty unusual, looking back very few caught in vancouver.

However i think these fish would of been typically caught but now the whole coast has to release them. Seems like there is a lot of big fraser fish around.

Its actually been pretty enlighten, I think these bigger fish are more aggressive and get caught before they ever made it back to the fraser
 
Lot of interesting theories. My observations from guiding in Barkley Sound for 23 seasons is there has been a decline in size at age of returning Chinook. We also observed greater than usual numbers of small chinook. In particular, I observed increasing numbers of female chinook under 77cm length. Notable because DFO science has always considered 77 cm as a break point where the majority of adults are male. Important because if we are planning fishery regulations to maximize returns of larger spawning females, this has been used as a regulatory response to manage the fishery to select more males than females. So size at age is a big deal.

My thought after researching potential reasons for declining size at age is this is largely related to the ongoing effects of predation from mammals - researchers hypothesize this is expanding NRKW populations - however I differ in opinion suggesting it is likely mostly sea lions - selecting larger prey per research from Dr. Carl Walters. Findings are noted in attached EPA study - https://www.epa.gov/salish-sea/chinook-salmon

I appreciate researchers in the EPA study note Northern Resident Killer Whales have been increasing their population, and to the point where it is thought they are impacting the number of larger returning chinook to the detriment of their SRKW cousins. This is another strong hypothesis as to declining size at age in Chinook, but overlooks the impact of other marine mammals such as sea lions. On a side note, while I concur NRKW are competing for food to detriment of SRKW - the broader reason behind why SRKW had foraging difficulty first observed in 2017 and later seen to be improving in 2021 - IMO the improving forage success in SRKW is more related to; 1) change in the matriarchal leadership to younger female whales who are better at locating Chinook; 2) measures to keep vessels - particularly WW vessels at a distance to allow undisturbed foraging activity.

I also question the hatchery practices - particularly indiscriminate mixing the eggs/sperm and not adopting a selective breeding approach for a portion of the hatchery production to select for size and ensure a mix of larger returning adults. There are concerns within DFO regarding the declining fecundity (number of eggs) each returning female represents, leading to increasing the brood target from 20,000 to at least 25,000 adults.

I have also attached the summary conclusion section for quick reference.


5 CONCLUSIONS​

Chinook salmon are highly valued for their large size and nutritional value by humans and apex predators alike. Here, we report on the loss of the largest and oldest fish from many populations across the west coast of North America. Declines in size-at-age were found to be common coast-wide and were most pronounced in northern populations. The southernmost populations, in contrast, showed no or week trends in size-at-age. Furthermore, while the loss of the oldest fish and corresponding decline in mean age was found for the majority of populations, trends in age compositions differed between regions. Most notably, populations from British Columbia for which we had data did not follow the decline in mean age.

Our qualitative assessment of the potential causes of changes in age-size structure suggests that common hypotheses such as harvest, environmental change and hatchery effects are not consistent with nor sufficient to explain observed patterns of demographic change in Chinook salmon observed across space and time. The causes of the declining size and age trends are likely complex and involve multiple factors that may interact. Changes in predation rates on the oldest and largest fish by expanding populations of resident killer whales is a hypothesis that appears largely consistent with the observed changes, but it remains untested. In the light of the presented findings, this and other hypotheses should be evaluated in more detail in future studies before firm conclusions about the underlying causes can be drawn.
 
Confirmed. We put 1,800 springs to hand this year.
Average spawner size was 12 to 15 pounds.
Only a small handful over 20 lbs.
Never seen anything like it.
Hoping it isn't the beginning of a trend...

Nog

deoends on the age class i would think
 
Lot of interesting theories. My observations from guiding in Barkley Sound for 23 seasons is there has been a decline in size at age of returning Chinook. We also observed greater than usual numbers of small chinook. In particular, I observed increasing numbers of female chinook under 77cm length. Notable because DFO science has always considered 77 cm as a break point where the majority of adults are male. Important because if we are planning fishery regulations to maximize returns of larger spawning females, this has been used as a regulatory response to manage the fishery to select more males than females. So size at age is a big deal.

My thought after researching potential reasons for declining size at age is this is largely related to the ongoing effects of predation from mammals - researchers hypothesize this is expanding NRKW populations - however I differ in opinion suggesting it is likely mostly sea lions - selecting larger prey per research from Dr. Carl Walters. Findings are noted in attached EPA study - https://www.epa.gov/salish-sea/chinook-salmon

I appreciate researchers in the EPA study note Northern Resident Killer Whales have been increasing their population, and to the point where it is thought they are impacting the number of larger returning chinook to the detriment of their SRKW cousins. This is another strong hypothesis as to declining size at age in Chinook, but overlooks the impact of other marine mammals such as sea lions. On a side note, while I concur NRKW are competing for food to detriment of SRKW - the broader reason behind why SRKW had foraging difficulty first observed in 2017 and later seen to be improving in 2021 - IMO the improving forage success in SRKW is more related to; 1) change in the matriarchal leadership to younger female whales who are better at locating Chinook; 2) measures to keep vessels - particularly WW vessels at a distance to allow undisturbed foraging activity.

I also question the hatchery practices - particularly indiscriminate mixing the eggs/sperm and not adopting a selective breeding approach for a portion of the hatchery production to select for size and ensure a mix of larger returning adults. There are concerns within DFO regarding the declining fecundity (number of eggs) each returning female represents, leading to increasing the brood target from 20,000 to at least 25,000 adults.

I have also attached the summary conclusion section for quick reference.


5 CONCLUSIONS​

Chinook salmon are highly valued for their large size and nutritional value by humans and apex predators alike. Here, we report on the loss of the largest and oldest fish from many populations across the west coast of North America. Declines in size-at-age were found to be common coast-wide and were most pronounced in northern populations. The southernmost populations, in contrast, showed no or week trends in size-at-age. Furthermore, while the loss of the oldest fish and corresponding decline in mean age was found for the majority of populations, trends in age compositions differed between regions. Most notably, populations from British Columbia for which we had data did not follow the decline in mean age.

Our qualitative assessment of the potential causes of changes in age-size structure suggests that common hypotheses such as harvest, environmental change and hatchery effects are not consistent with nor sufficient to explain observed patterns of demographic change in Chinook salmon observed across space and time. The causes of the declining size and age trends are likely complex and involve multiple factors that may interact. Changes in predation rates on the oldest and largest fish by expanding populations of resident killer whales is a hypothesis that appears largely consistent with the observed changes, but it remains untested. In the light of the presented findings, this and other hypotheses should be evaluated in more detail in future studies before firm conclusions about the underlying causes can be drawn.
I can confirm that seals only steal tyee class fish. Every GD time!
 
With 1,800 to hand, we captured pretty well all available age classes this year.
More intel coming from marked fish, which I will share when in hand.

@searun: Agree with your assessment. Toss in the huge volumes of clones Alaska and others dump annually, and we do indeed have a problem.

Cheers

yeah sad, hopefully maybe next year will be better
 
Any chance this could be a left over effect of the 'Blob'. I recall distinctly reading the mass of warmth led to nutrient deficient water that would have a ripple effect up from all the lower-end keystone species. Or perhaps, we would have seen that a year or two ago?
 
Any chance this could be a left over effect of the 'Blob'. I recall distinctly reading the mass of warmth led to nutrient deficient water that would have a ripple effect up from all the lower-end keystone species. Or perhaps, we would have seen that a year or two ago?
2021 was the 8th best ocean productivity conditions experienced in a long while in the north pacific according to NOAA study. Sort of anticipated we would see larger fish, but that did not materialize. The size at age could be a response to predation - in other words, if you are smaller your survival is higher because the sea lions like fat smarties as opposed to skinny ones.
 
I really would be interested to see the assessment in sizes at the river once the rains come in this weekend, and push more fish in. It sounded like Sarita had bigger fish from other thread why is that?
 
Lot of interesting theories. My observations from guiding in Barkley Sound for 23 seasons is there has been a decline in size at age of returning Chinook. We also observed greater than usual numbers of small chinook. In particular, I observed increasing numbers of female chinook under 77cm length. Notable because DFO science has always considered 77 cm as a break point where the majority of adults are male. Important because if we are planning fishery regulations to maximize returns of larger spawning females, this has been used as a regulatory response to manage the fishery to select more males than females. So size at age is a big deal.

My thought after researching potential reasons for declining size at age is this is largely related to the ongoing effects of predation from mammals - researchers hypothesize this is expanding NRKW populations - however I differ in opinion suggesting it is likely mostly sea lions - selecting larger prey per research from Dr. Carl Walters. Findings are noted in attached EPA study - https://www.epa.gov/salish-sea/chinook-salmon

I appreciate researchers in the EPA study note Northern Resident Killer Whales have been increasing their population, and to the point where it is thought they are impacting the number of larger returning chinook to the detriment of their SRKW cousins. This is another strong hypothesis as to declining size at age in Chinook, but overlooks the impact of other marine mammals such as sea lions. On a side note, while I concur NRKW are competing for food to detriment of SRKW - the broader reason behind why SRKW had foraging difficulty first observed in 2017 and later seen to be improving in 2021 - IMO the improving forage success in SRKW is more related to; 1) change in the matriarchal leadership to younger female whales who are better at locating Chinook; 2) measures to keep vessels - particularly WW vessels at a distance to allow undisturbed foraging activity.

I also question the hatchery practices - particularly indiscriminate mixing the eggs/sperm and not adopting a selective breeding approach for a portion of the hatchery production to select for size and ensure a mix of larger returning adults. There are concerns within DFO regarding the declining fecundity (number of eggs) each returning female represents, leading to increasing the brood target from 20,000 to at least 25,000 adults.

I have also attached the summary conclusion section for quick reference.


5 CONCLUSIONS​

Chinook salmon are highly valued for their large size and nutritional value by humans and apex predators alike. Here, we report on the loss of the largest and oldest fish from many populations across the west coast of North America. Declines in size-at-age were found to be common coast-wide and were most pronounced in northern populations. The southernmost populations, in contrast, showed no or week trends in size-at-age. Furthermore, while the loss of the oldest fish and corresponding decline in mean age was found for the majority of populations, trends in age compositions differed between regions. Most notably, populations from British Columbia for which we had data did not follow the decline in mean age.

Our qualitative assessment of the potential causes of changes in age-size structure suggests that common hypotheses such as harvest, environmental change and hatchery effects are not consistent with nor sufficient to explain observed patterns of demographic change in Chinook salmon observed across space and time. The causes of the declining size and age trends are likely complex and involve multiple factors that may interact. Changes in predation rates on the oldest and largest fish by expanding populations of resident killer whales is a hypothesis that appears largely consistent with the observed changes, but it remains untested. In the light of the presented findings, this and other hypotheses should be evaluated in more detail in future studies before firm conclusions about the underlying causes can be drawn.

Interesting never correlated with NRKW.
 
The bigger size of the Fraser fish the last month has been due to the fact the Vedder has doubled its hatchery production for the Harrison white springs. These aren't upper Fraser stock or even the Thompson 4-1s that are 20+lbs. Thank your increased hatchery production for the quality of this years fishery.

Another note probably 40% of the fish i have seen in the last two weeks on the Vedder have been reds. Unfortunetly they are still of the Fall Harrison stock and are becoming more common each year.

Too bad they don't stock our hatcheries with the Thompson 4-1s instead of the gross fall whites.
 
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