2009 Salmon Returns
- Thread starter chris73
- Start date
Charlie
Well-Known Member
2010 should be as good as 2009! 
Forecast of Adult Returns for Coho in 2009 and Chinook Salmon in 2010
Positive signs
• Most negative winter PDO since 2000 and most negative summer PDO since 1955
• Most negative index of El Niño activity since 1999 (This indicates La Niña, or cold equatorial ocean conditions in the eastern Pacific.)
• Coldest winter sea surface temperatures of the past 12 years
• Early and strong coastal upwelling, with average upwelling strength during April–May (when juvenile salmon first enter the ocean) the 4th highest of 11 years
• Coldest deep–water temperatures in the continental shelf of the past 12 years
• Earliest biological spring transition of the past 13 years
• Highest northern copepod biomass levels of the past 13 years
Somewhat negative signs
• Sea surface temperatures were warm from 22 July until 27 August, possibly a negative sign for juvenile coho
• Only a moderate number of juvenile coho were caught in our September survey (6th highest of 11 years)
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/g-forecast.cfm
Forecast of Adult Returns for Coho in 2009 and Chinook Salmon in 2010
Positive signs
• Most negative winter PDO since 2000 and most negative summer PDO since 1955
• Most negative index of El Niño activity since 1999 (This indicates La Niña, or cold equatorial ocean conditions in the eastern Pacific.)
• Coldest winter sea surface temperatures of the past 12 years
• Early and strong coastal upwelling, with average upwelling strength during April–May (when juvenile salmon first enter the ocean) the 4th highest of 11 years
• Coldest deep–water temperatures in the continental shelf of the past 12 years
• Earliest biological spring transition of the past 13 years
• Highest northern copepod biomass levels of the past 13 years
Somewhat negative signs
• Sea surface temperatures were warm from 22 July until 27 August, possibly a negative sign for juvenile coho
• Only a moderate number of juvenile coho were caught in our September survey (6th highest of 11 years)
http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/g-forecast.cfm
SerengetiGuide
Well-Known Member
I was just in Woss over Thanksgiving and just from looking under the bridge there were hundreds and hundreds of Coho...it was amazing. I sat and watched them for about an hr. huge schools of them. I heard from some of the people around Woss that it was the most they have ever seen...definitely the most I'd ever seen in my short life.
www.serengetifishingcharters.com
*NEW VIDEO*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlEzuNC59ck
www.serengetifishingcharters.com
*NEW VIDEO*
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlEzuNC59ck
Chris73,
Last DFO published stats (Oct 7) on Cowichan chinook were:
130 through the fence
230 in the very low clear waters of the river below the fence (at the mercy of a spear fishery and the occasionaol illegal net)
plus 600 brood stock captured by the hatchery. This seems positive but there is a negative twist ... the big problem with the hatchery is Dr Dick Beamish identified from his Georgia Strait study work that 99% of all Cowichan hatchery chinook were dead within three months of leaving the hatchery!!! One has to ask, why take those fish into the hatchery at all and not let them spawn naturally in the river if that is just how terrible the success rate is?
DFO will put out another report tomorrow and I'll post it when I get it.
I heard yesterday from a knowledgeable friend that there are now 500 chinook swimming in Nanaimo River.
God never did make a more calm, quiet, innocent recreation than angling - Izaak Walton
Last DFO published stats (Oct 7) on Cowichan chinook were:
130 through the fence
230 in the very low clear waters of the river below the fence (at the mercy of a spear fishery and the occasionaol illegal net)
plus 600 brood stock captured by the hatchery. This seems positive but there is a negative twist ... the big problem with the hatchery is Dr Dick Beamish identified from his Georgia Strait study work that 99% of all Cowichan hatchery chinook were dead within three months of leaving the hatchery!!! One has to ask, why take those fish into the hatchery at all and not let them spawn naturally in the river if that is just how terrible the success rate is?
DFO will put out another report tomorrow and I'll post it when I get it.
I heard yesterday from a knowledgeable friend that there are now 500 chinook swimming in Nanaimo River.
God never did make a more calm, quiet, innocent recreation than angling - Izaak Walton
Autumn Ty-ee
Member
Governor by chance do you know how many Chinook the Nanaimo hatchery has caught for brood stock or if that is included in your friends count.
Autumn Ty-ee
Autumn Ty-ee
Governor, thanks for the update. Regarding the non-survival of the Cowichan hacthery chinooks - I highly doubt that the survival rate of the naturally spawned would be any different. Can't see any plausible reason why they would survive at a different rate uless the released hacthery fish were weak or sick...
Chris73
Survival rates of wild salmon from the Cow river were also looked at by Beamish as part of his study and his findings were that wild fish did markedly better than Cow hatchery chinook. Percentage-wise I can't remember but it wasn't an automatic death sentence like 99% in three months from the hatchery. Hence my concern about the 600 going in the hatchery.
Apparently, the wisdom is that there is a well water source for the Cow Hatchery that may have or has 'occasional' spikes in heavy metals in the well water from the aquafer. This can cause healthy looking juvenile salmon to have fatal liver damage. (i.e when in hatchery and released they 'look' healthy and act absolutely fine but will likely die of liver disease.) This is a syndrome that was identified at the Marine Harvest facility also on the Cowichan where their staff had big challenges with steelhead rearing (they actually witnessed the deaths as they do not release their juvenile fish). By installing a special filtration system at the MHC Duncan hatchery completely fixed the problem 100% and now their steelhead rearing quality and success is regarded the best on the island.
Also worth noting here, I am led to believe that DFO SEP still has money available from their $ 8 million Action Plan funds (that was part $250 million science lab and hatchery funding grant). Increasing water flow (by drilling another well) and installing a special filter OR changing to use river water as the source instead of ground water are all options that need quick consideration and action. However, I fear there may be 'egos' within DFO that are just too big to admit they are not 'right' and know what's best on everything, so we may have to stand by and watch the once mighty Cowichan chinook waste away to nothing. Cowichan used to get returns as high as 12 - 15 thousand chinook per year (25k once) and now we are messing about with the last few hundred fish.
God never did make a more calm, quiet, innocent recreation than angling - Izaak Walton
Survival rates of wild salmon from the Cow river were also looked at by Beamish as part of his study and his findings were that wild fish did markedly better than Cow hatchery chinook. Percentage-wise I can't remember but it wasn't an automatic death sentence like 99% in three months from the hatchery. Hence my concern about the 600 going in the hatchery.
Apparently, the wisdom is that there is a well water source for the Cow Hatchery that may have or has 'occasional' spikes in heavy metals in the well water from the aquafer. This can cause healthy looking juvenile salmon to have fatal liver damage. (i.e when in hatchery and released they 'look' healthy and act absolutely fine but will likely die of liver disease.) This is a syndrome that was identified at the Marine Harvest facility also on the Cowichan where their staff had big challenges with steelhead rearing (they actually witnessed the deaths as they do not release their juvenile fish). By installing a special filtration system at the MHC Duncan hatchery completely fixed the problem 100% and now their steelhead rearing quality and success is regarded the best on the island.
Also worth noting here, I am led to believe that DFO SEP still has money available from their $ 8 million Action Plan funds (that was part $250 million science lab and hatchery funding grant). Increasing water flow (by drilling another well) and installing a special filter OR changing to use river water as the source instead of ground water are all options that need quick consideration and action. However, I fear there may be 'egos' within DFO that are just too big to admit they are not 'right' and know what's best on everything, so we may have to stand by and watch the once mighty Cowichan chinook waste away to nothing. Cowichan used to get returns as high as 12 - 15 thousand chinook per year (25k once) and now we are messing about with the last few hundred fish.
God never did make a more calm, quiet, innocent recreation than angling - Izaak Walton
Rum Buddies
Well-Known Member
This should be such a no brainer - they are struggling to get enough water from a well with who knows what in the water. Here's an idea, raise the fish in the water from their native stream - duh!
Umm what steelhead program, they killed it 2 years ago didn't they? Or do they raise steelhead for other streams?
Oh and Gov, they talked about releasing smolts of varying sizes, including some truly giant smolts to help them better survive - when do those come back?
Do you know anything about triploid chinook - or did DC reid make that up?
http://www.fishingvancouverisland.org - Win an 8-Hour WCVI Charter!
Here is today's official DFO Cowichan River Fish Fence Update:
This update is for 16 October.
As of 0800, 16 Oct. there have been enumerated at the Cowichan Chinook Fence:
144 Chinook adults
141 Chinook jacks
449 Coho adults
323 Coho jacks
63 Pink adults (I think this is a typo and should be 163)
19 Chum adults
A swim survey of the river downstream of the fence was conducted today. Swimmers surveyed from the fence downstream to the bridge at Clem Clem on the south arm. The north arm of the lower river was not surveyed. Water visibility conditions were very poor but the consensus of the swim surveyors was that there has not been a strong pulse of adult Chinook to the river since the swim last week.
This would indicate an increase of ONLY 18 more adult chinook in the last week and a guesstimated similar number of fish in the lower river (280 adult chinook last report) plus the fence comes out in two weeks.
It is still a dismal return by anyone's standard
God never did make a more calm, quiet, innocent recreation than angling - Izaak Walton
This update is for 16 October.
As of 0800, 16 Oct. there have been enumerated at the Cowichan Chinook Fence:
144 Chinook adults
141 Chinook jacks
449 Coho adults
323 Coho jacks
63 Pink adults (I think this is a typo and should be 163)
19 Chum adults
A swim survey of the river downstream of the fence was conducted today. Swimmers surveyed from the fence downstream to the bridge at Clem Clem on the south arm. The north arm of the lower river was not surveyed. Water visibility conditions were very poor but the consensus of the swim surveyors was that there has not been a strong pulse of adult Chinook to the river since the swim last week.
This would indicate an increase of ONLY 18 more adult chinook in the last week and a guesstimated similar number of fish in the lower river (280 adult chinook last report) plus the fence comes out in two weeks.
It is still a dismal return by anyone's standard
God never did make a more calm, quiet, innocent recreation than angling - Izaak Walton
So Nanaimo Hatchery do have their brood stock for Summer Run chinook already in tanks at the hatchery. But none taken from the second round fall run chinook which are just arriving in river now. 500 adult chinook was the swim count from Wednesday and Nanaimo Hatchery have not taken brood from that run yet.
So Autumn Ty-ee there's your answer. [8D]
I hope it is helpful.
God never did make a more calm, quiet, innocent recreation than angling - Izaak Walton
Charlie
Well-Known Member
Did you know escaped Atlantic salmon are currently a by-catch that has been reported in the Johnstone Strait? And, that if those try to spawn, they use the same spawning grounds as Steelhead? They can and will destroy the Steelhead beds? If you want to make something “triploid”, that should be the Atlantic species, not the Chinook! IMHO
That is correct; however, I would be very careful promoting “Triploid Chinook”? It sounds great to have the larger fish - which is the norm, but there are some serious downsides there! So serious, the state of Washington put a moratorium on them a few years back. I don’t think those concerns have been resolved! I haven't followed up on that issue for quite awhile, but the last I heard there was a lobby to "farm" them outside the 3 mile state control of both Alaska and Washington, as neither state wants anything to do with it.quote
Charlie - Just so no one gets the wrong impression, I am not in favour of the suggestion made by D.C. Reid for producing Cowichan chinook triploids, just in case that was what some thought. There are better solutions for the Cowichan chinook recovery. .
Lipripper - I am not well versed about triploids but I know for fact they try and spawn. Roche Lake Resort in the Kamloops area has an artificial spawning channel set up so the big triploid rainbows can spawn. I've actually seen them trying to spawn in that channel. Apparently, so I was told, they have the channel running in spawning season because rainbows do not die after spawning but the triploid females will die of being egg bound if there is no where to drop the eggs as the lake doesn't cut it. (that may be a pile of crap but I was told that by the owner of Roche Lake Resort) The rainbows in Roche Lake are simply for a fishery.
Of interest to some, I understand that concerns raised by several of us have led to DFO seriously considering a release of some of the 600 adult chinooks held in the hatchery for brood. Because the natural spawning beds are a far better solution right now than a hatchery that seems to produce liver damaged fish
God never did make a more calm, quiet, innocent recreation than angling - Izaak Walton
Lipripper - I am not well versed about triploids but I know for fact they try and spawn. Roche Lake Resort in the Kamloops area has an artificial spawning channel set up so the big triploid rainbows can spawn. I've actually seen them trying to spawn in that channel. Apparently, so I was told, they have the channel running in spawning season because rainbows do not die after spawning but the triploid females will die of being egg bound if there is no where to drop the eggs as the lake doesn't cut it. (that may be a pile of crap but I was told that by the owner of Roche Lake Resort) The rainbows in Roche Lake are simply for a fishery.
Of interest to some, I understand that concerns raised by several of us have led to DFO seriously considering a release of some of the 600 adult chinooks held in the hatchery for brood. Because the natural spawning beds are a far better solution right now than a hatchery that seems to produce liver damaged fish
God never did make a more calm, quiet, innocent recreation than angling - Izaak Walton
