There so far has been no scientific evidence to support the hypothesis that fishery high grading is solely responsible for the trend observed over the past decade or more of decreasing size at age of Chinook. A number of studies, none so far have been able to demonstrate a link to fishery (recreational, commercial, FN) effects - some have pointed to the size at age is a response to predation. So the jury is indeed out on causes, which are likely multi-faceted.
Resurgence of an apex marine predator and the decline in prey body size
Jan Ohlberger https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6795-240X janohl@uw.edu,
Daniel E. Schindler,
Eric J. Ward https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4359-0296, +1, and
Timothy E. EssingtonAuthors Info & Affiliations
Edited by James A. Estes, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, and approved November 13, 2019 (received for review June 25, 2019)
://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1910930116
In light of recent recoveries of marine mammal populations worldwide and heightened concern about their impacts on marine food webs and global fisheries, it has become increasingly important to understand the potential impacts of large marine mammal predators on prey populations and their life-history traits. In coastal waters of the northeast Pacific Ocean, marine mammals have increased in abundance over the past 40 to 50 y, including fish-eating killer whales that feed primarily on Chinook salmon. Chinook salmon, a species of high cultural and economic value, have exhibited marked declines in average size and age throughout most of their North American range. This raises the question of whether size-selective predation by marine mammals is generating these trends in life-history characteristics. Here we show that increased predation since the 1970s, but not fishery selection alone, can explain the changes in age and size structure observed for Chinook salmon populations along the west coast of North America. Simulations suggest that the decline in mean size results from the selective removal of large fish and an evolutionary shift toward faster growth and earlier maturation caused by selection. Our conclusion that intensifying predation by fish-eating killer whales contributes to the continuing decline in Chinook salmon body size points to conflicting management and conservation objectives for these two iconic species.