Terrible weather forecasts

[Bryan Allen]

I am very familiar with this problem in the Central and inside waters . A few years back I tracked EC weather marine forecasts for several months. The small boat forecast was wrong 50% of the time during the summer. I phoned EC and complained and asked why, with the technology available they got it wrong so frequently . Maybe it was the Office Boy I was talking to-- but his reply was "We do the best that we can. " Here is part of the problem https://thetyee.ca/News/2023/01/17/...ce=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=170123

 

[Sharphooks]

Really helpful, Bryan…thanks for posting that!

Unsettling to read the Tyree article…. Explains why I kept hearing…”not available” last summer when they rattled off buoy weather reports… and then they didn’t…

Meanwhile it’s interesting to me to hear so many people extol the virtues of the “Windy” site

Last summer I was anchored in St John’s and a guy asked me if I’d planned on fishing Cheney Point the next morning…. I responded I might sit out the morning bite because I’d just heard on the VHF automated weather report that it was supposed to blow 20 knots from the west which makes for unpleasant conditions on the Cheney side of Milbanke….

No, no! He said. Windy is reporting flat calm conditions and you can take their reports to the bank, quoth he

Short story… I got up at O’dark:30 and go out to Cheney and promptly settled into the troughs of one meter waves that to my eyes were clearly building. After the first coho I fired up the mains, got around Cape Swain into Seaforth and dropped the gear in less sporty conditions

Funny thing… the guides who snickered when I pulled my gear and made a move were all right behind me in Seaforth half an hour later

Windy? Yes, come to think of it there was a bit of uncalled-for wind

 

[mbowers]

Really helpful, Bryan…thanks for posting that!

Unsettling to read the Tyree article…. Explains why I kept hearing…”not available” last summer when they rattled off buoy weather reports… and then they didn’t…

Meanwhile it’s interesting to me to hear so many people extol the virtues of the “Windy” site

Last summer I was anchored in St John’s and a guy asked me if I’d planned on fishing Cheney Point the next morning…. I responded I might sit out the morning bite because I’d just heard on the VHF automated weather report that it was supposed to blow 20 knots from the west which makes for unpleasant conditions on the Cheney side of Milbanke….

No, no! He said. Windy is reporting flat calm conditions and you can take their reports to the bank, quoth he

Short story… I got up at O’dark:30 and go out to Cheney and promptly settled into the troughs of one meter waves that to my eyes were clearly building. After the first coho I fired up the mains, got around Cape Swain into Seaforth and dropped the gear in less sporty conditions

Funny thing… the guides who snickered when I pulled my gear and made a move were all right behind me in Seaforth half an hour later

Windy? Yes, come to think of it there was a bit of uncalled-for wind

I've found Windy to be extremely accurate on forecasts. Did you check Windy yourself or were you just at the whim of someone else's Windy skills? I've been fooled with an accurate dead calm wind forecast but I forgot to check the swell and current forecasts. Those two created a very nasty sea condition but with zero wind.

However any forecast can be off and I usually check at least two options.

 

[cuttlefish]

All the more reason to keep those lighthouses manned.

 

[islandboy]

I've found Windy to be extremely accurate on forecasts. Did you check Windy yourself or were you just at the whim of someone else's Windy skills? I've been fooled with an accurate dead calm wind forecast but I forgot to check the swell and current forecasts. Those two created a very nasty sea condition but with zero wind.

However any forecast can be off and I usually check at least two options.

Windy has two 'wind' predictions, one is the steady wind and the other is gusts. They can be dramatically different. As I am in a rowboat I pay close attention to the predictions of both. Often taking a hard look at the 6 hours leading up to when I plan to be on the water.

 

[cuttlefish]

Canada is hiring a lighthouse keeper in BC and it pays pretty well | Venture

If you've ever dreamed of being a lighthouse keeper, the Government of Canada is hiring for your perfect job in BC.

dailyhive.com

 

[Bill 310]

I had some vacation time left over and for fun we planned to hop in the boat and head over to Nanaimo Sunday come back Tuesday see some pals, buy some sausages at NesVog's
Earlier in the week it was calling for Sunny days

No Sun and fair seas now.

View attachment 89018

 

[redram99]

I paid for windy pro. Great features and graphics. The available options are amazing.

The actual weather forecasts…. Not so great(in my experience).
Actually quite terrible. It was a waste of $$$$

 

[Bill 310]

Well based on forcasted weather we didn't go, based on actual weather we should have gone.

 

[gone fishin]

weather forecasters use 3 or more models to do their forecasts.
Here is one

Windy as forecasted

Wind map and weather forecast

www.windy.com

Windy is ok, but far from perfect.
I check the canadian, usa and Windy and come to my own conclusions.
All things considered I think we get very good weather and wind forecasts.

 

[A-a-Ron]

Seems everyone uses Windy but I use the app PredictWind, I find it pretty accurate and reliable.

 

[Damn Ugly]

Whatever app/site you use, learn the difference between the different Global Weather Models (ECMWF, GFS, HRRR, NAM, ICON), what their strengths/weaknesses are, and which sites/apps give you access to which information. Windy is the perfect site with almost all the information from all the major weather models - you just need to know where & how to find and use it (use the Compare feature!).

Windy as forecasted

Wind map and weather forecast

www.windy.com

 

[mbowers]

After some hard wind Friday night, I had a beautiful calm Saturday off Sooke because Windy / Big Wave Dave predicted this calm window in that small area. Basically only place on whole Pacific Coast with light winds (even Sidney was blowing). I kept a close eye on the wind, expecting it could start blowing but it stayed less than 10kt near shore from 8am to 2pm just as predicted.

 

[Bill 310]

Spent some time with the the very nice people at Environment Canada at the Boat Show last weekend

The had a pile of paper slips with phone numbers on them, sitting out on the desk at their booth.

One of the Staff Member manning the booth handed me one of the slips of paper and said, "Call the Marine number (not the public number), and you will speak directly to the Marine Forecaster on duty, and get a more accurate and up to date forecast. for where you will be going."

 

[Aces]

I paid for windy pro. Great features and graphics. The available options are amazing.

The actual weather forecasts…. Not so great(in my experience).
Actually quite terrible. It was a waste of $$$$

I’ve had a subscription with Buoyweather for over 20 years and I find it very accurate. Of course the forecast can be less accurate farther into the future

 

[onefish]

The forecasting is so much better than it was 30 years ago. That being said, I never fully trust a south east forecast.