Rock slide in Fraser River, B.C., may hinder salmon passage

[cohochinook]

Chum is closing next week for fraser river and all its tributaries

Folks

Please find attached FN with an update to Fraser river Chum run size.

Just as a heads up given the very poor returns the Department will be implementing Chum non retention in the tidal and non Tidal recreational fisheries within the Lower Fraser watershed. Fishery Notices will be out within the next week

If you have any questions please give me a call.

Thanks Dean


Dean Allan

Area Chief Resource Management, Fraser and Interior Area

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

(W- 250-851-4821)

(C- 250-319-1976)





Category(s):

ABORIGINAL - Salmon: Economic Opportunities,

COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Gill Net,

COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Seine,

COMMERCIAL - Salmon: Troll,

RECREATIONAL - Salmon


Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada


Subject: FN1071-Salmon - Chum - Area 29 - Fraser River - Update October 16, 2019


In-season estimates of return-to-the-mouth (“terminal”) abundance for Fraser

River Chum Salmon are based on historical information on the probable range of

run size, timing, expansion line, and duration, combined with the current

year’s catch information provided by the Albion test fishery. The Chum-directed

test fishing gill net (6.75” mesh) is fished every other day from September 1

to October 20, then daily through November 10, then every other day until

November 23. More details of the Albion test fishery can be found on the DFO

website: http://www.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/fm-gp/fraser/index-eng.html


Catch in the Chum net through October 15 totals 564, which is the lowest catch

to date observed since 1995. Combining this data with the historical

information in a Bayesian non-linear regression model results in a median

estimate for the terminal Fraser River Chum Salmon return of 564,000 Chum, with

a 50% migration date of October 24. There is an 80% probability that the run is

between 421,000 and 752,000, and a 6% probability that the run will exceed the

escapement goal of 800,000. The model is currently estimating the 50% migration

date of the Chum Salmon return is 9 days later than average. If the run timing

is actually closer to average, the median estimated run size is 414,000 with an

80% probability that the run is between 326,000 and 534,000. The timing and

final run size estimate will be confirmed within the next week.


The current run size is not sufficient to allow for recreational or commercial

opportunities (including First Nations Economic Opportunities) in the Fraser

River.


Opportunities to harvest Chum Salmon for First Nations Food, Social, and

Ceremonial purposes will be constrained by management objectives for Interior

Fraser Steelhead, which is a stock of concern presently co-migrating in the

Fraser River. Moving window closures are in place for all salmon fisheries

located along the migratory route of Thompson and Chilcotin River Steelhead,

including Southern BC marine waters and the Fraser River and tributaries

downstream of Thompson and Chilcotin River Steelhead spawning areas, as

outlined in the 2019/2020 South Coast Salmon Integrated Fisheries Management

Plan (IFMP). Harvest opportunities in all fisheries will be planned in line

with these management measures. Fishers are required to take every measure

possible to ensure that their fishing activities avoid impacts on Steelhead.

Any Steelhead encountered must be released with the least possible harm.


A final in-season update will be provided on Oct 23, 2019.

 

[Dave]

Here's a bit of an update on a few systems regarding how many fish made it through ... Chilko sockeye ended up app. 165k; total Quesnel system (Horsefly, Mitchell), app. 20k with a peak live count on the Horsefly at app. 3400.
No chinooks were observed in the Goat and Torpy, with handfuls only in other streams.

 

[wildmanyeah]

 

[wildmanyeah]

Ito November now and no one knows what the long term strategy is or what the early fraser chinook stock return look like.

 

[terrin]

View attachment 48867

This is not surprising from the DFO. It will surely be criminal if a proper slide passage was still needed and nothing was done. As Trustees of Fisheries and Oceans they must have a legal Fiduciary duty to do the right thing one would think.

 

[wildmanyeah]

Wow no wonder they put a gag order on it


PSF gives a slide update at the 20 min mark. "virtually no Early Stuart sockeye or Early Chinook made it back to spawn" "Everything north of Quesnel was bad" 99.9% of the effort made by humans to get them over the slide did not work.

 

[Whitebuck]

Major gag order on all of the people who are involved!

How is this not on the news?

News crews are called for homeless camps but won't show the biggest coverup in DFO history??

 

[terrin]

Major gag order on all of the people who are involved!

How is this not on the news?

News crews are called for homeless camps but won't show the biggest coverup in DFO history??

Because they are lining up for their share of govt. handouts of our tax money.

 

[ChinookExerciser]

 

[ChinookExerciser]

It is my understanding that this slide is based on below river test fisheries and DNA. Therefor, it does not represent how many successfully spawned or made it past the slide. For example for early stuart you would have to times 26,000 X .2(% estimated to pass slide) = 5,200 made it past slide. Then after that you will need to account for mortality from slide to spawning ground (information not available yet). So wildmans post about the PSF video is correct "virtually no Early Stuart sockeye made it back to spawn".

 

[searun]

Just looks to me that no matter what we do these poor stocks are destined for extirpation. A lot of well meaning effort and expense took place this summer, and we have virtually nothing to show for it. I don't wish to rule out some miracle feat of engineering, but that seems unlikely given the obstacles. Trying to capture and lift them past the slide won't work either as evidenced by the high level of drop back. We saw the same thing in steelhead radio tagging studies - many dropped back down the river after tagging/handling before ascending again. It may just be that we have to let mother nature run her course on this one. Those fish that do make it past the slide may be the genetically superior stock that could rebuild. It has happened before, just look at the rebuilding after the Mount St. Helen's disaster wiped those rivers off the face of the planet. I also worry we will default to SARA listing, and implementing fishing closures that under the circumstance be ineffective given this is a habitat/migration blockage....but at least we would look good doing something.

 

[Whitebuck]

They can fix this. If we turn our backs on this and "let nature run its course" we will not be fishing for a very long time and losing key FN food sources.

We will have had close to 8months of low water for engineers and people to work to fix this problem. Unfortunetly DFO has not provided any solutions to this problem and a gag order has been placed on the biologists and the people involved.

The upper Fraser Chinook are one of the most unique strains of Chinook on the west coast. I worry that much like the Thompson steelhead DFO will be letting these stocks slip into extinction.

I truly hope that our FN will be getting involved with this one and bringing it back into the public spotlight. This is one of the biggest disasters we have seen in our lifetime for salmon.

We are only 3 months away from the first of the early upper Fraser to hit the Fraser.
Let's get some hatcheries going on the upper tributaries as well as an actual solution for the slide rather than sweeping this under the carpet!

 

[wildmanyeah]

We received an update at last nights meeting. It’s not out yet but the biologist think only around 100 early Stuart’s successfully spawned.

The army core of engineers recently submitted a plan to do a bunch of blasting and they are waiting to the lowest possible water level to do so. The blasting includes possibly removing the toe that sticks out.

 

[Dave]

It’s not out yet but the biologist think only around 100 early Stuart’s successfully spawned.
.

Well, they might have spawned but I doubt they were successful. Don't forget the eggs of 17 females being held at the Cultus Lab ..

 

[wildmanyeah]

Yeah no matter how you slice it it’s a total collapse.

 

[wildmanyeah]

The question was also asked about why there was not a huge amount visible below the slide and why there were not thousands or morts everywhere.

It sounds like the fish drop back fairly quickly. There are some small streams just south of the slide that were packed with fish. Also some pools south were packed full of fish.

An interesting thing to note is that they radio tagged some fish at the slide that were later caught in some lower Fraser fisheries.

 

[GLG]

Nov 6, 2019 Big Bar Landslide Update

Big Bar Slide Response Enters Second Phase

Fisheries and Oceans Canada was notified of a landslide near Big Bar, British Columbia on June 23, and investigated this remote area of the Fraser River on June 25. The Big Bar Incident Command System (ICS) and Incident Command Post (ICP) were established on June 29 in Lillooet, BC with experts and response specialists from the Government of Canada, the Province of British Columbia and First Nations to respond to this emergency situation.

Phase 1 of the Operation, from July through September 2019, successfully achieved the identified short-term objectives, ensuring the safety of personnel and the public and moving salmon past the slide by whatever means possible. Trap and transfer, plus the partial re-establishment of natural fish passage through a combination of rock manipulation and lower water levels as of the second week of September, resulted in thousands of salmon migrating above the slide site.

Through the month of October 2019, the government-to-government-to-government (3G) response to the Big Bar Landslide fully transitioned from the Emergency response ICS organization, to an ongoing Project Response. Construction site preparation work adjacent to the slide area and on the west and east banks concluded midOctober. Water velocity and levels, plus rock stability and security at the site, are still being actively monitored, however. Currently there is minimal on-site activity while the urgent project planning for winter construction work takes place off-site.

While the majority of the 2019 Fraser salmon migration has now concluded, continued sustained efforts will be required in the short and long-term, possibly even into years ahead, to reduce the impact of the landslide on future salmon stocks. Work is also ongoing to finalize the scientific evaluation of the success of the measures taken during the emergency response and to identify lessons learned for future implementation. This is Phase 2 of the response.

The majority of winter construction is expected to happen prior to the spring freshet, while water levels are expected to be at their lowest. The freshet is anticipated to begin in March. This will bring increased water levels and velocity back to the slide area, making it difficult to safely continue any instream construction works.

We are fully aware of the high stakes involved. The Fraser River is one of the largest salmon producers in the world. More than 140 First Nations in BC are annually licensed to fish Fraser salmon for food, social and ceremonial purposes; Indigenous fishers also represent a significant portion of the commercial salmon fishery.

We are still waiting for the final results of our radio tagging and monitoring program related to the effectiveness of the fish transport system. However, we do know that some fish that were transported, particularly the earlier runs of salmon, had been holding downstream and exhausting themselves trying to get past the slide. Based on their condition and experience of observing stressed fish, we knew that fish moved would still be challenged to make it to their natal stream and successfully spawn. However, no action would have meant no early salmon runs getting to their home stream (Spring and early Summer). Looking forward, expected returns of sockeye and chinook in four to five years is challenging to predict this early in the salmon’s life cycle.

In 2019, the trap and transport was initiated quickly under an emergency response order midway through the salmon migration season. Recognizing an urgency to prepare for next season, we are currently pursuing and planning to more effectively assist salmon migration in 2020, should this be required. On-going rock manipulation through winter construction will hopefully reduce or eliminate the trap and transport requirement.

A primary option to improve passage is the use of explosives, combined with the use of heavy equipment, to remove a large portion of the rock presently creating the fish barrier. During Phase 1, Incident Command received support from the US Army Corps of Engineers for its proposed engineering plans. Both the Departments of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces have also been engaged, and a number of experts in the use-of-explosives and heavy construction continue to be engaged as part of the current project planning process. An expert panel commissioned by the BC Premiers office and the Minister of Fisheries and Oceans Canada also reviewed the options being considered and provided endorsement to the approaches taken to date. As water levels and velocities continue to decrease to winter low flow levels, opportunities for additional underwater survey and visual observation of the rock debris in the River will assist in refining project plans. In addition, if a longer-term, more permanent solution, such as the construction of a fish passage structure, is deemed necessary after an intensive construction period this winter, the work accomplished and further data acquired next season will inform the feasibility studies to inform those decisions.

First Nations have been engaged from the outset of the Big Bar Landslide incident and remain an integral part of the planning, operations, and decision-making process. Direct First Nations involvement continues at the Joint Executive Steering Committee (JESC) and other levels, while the First Nations Leadership Panel guides the First Nations JESC representative. As the Incident Response moves into the next phase, First Nations involvement will occur at other levels as well. First Nations’ traditional ecological knowledge continues to inform operations, and First Nations specialists and personnel are expected to be part of the on-the-ground activities during winter 2019/2020 and beyond.

The government-to-government-to-government ICP established in Lillooet to oversee and support work in the field, as well as the Unified Command Structure that was implemented, was unique and at the heart of the initial phase of the response. To ensure continuity of direction, retain the deep knowledge gained during the emergency phase, and demonstrate the ongoing commitment to transparency and a robust 3G action team ― the Joint Executive Steering Committee (JESC) members, dedicated project leads and select environment and engineering specialists, will remain in place to lead this important next phase.

As we move into the very difficult winter construction and rock work phase, the Big Bar Landslide Project Response JESC will issue more information updates directly, and via the website, to report out on our actions going forward, and the outcomes of our post-mortem evaluations of the Big Bar Landslide emergency response operation.

http://frafs.ca/sites/default/files2/InfoBulletin_BigBar_Nov.6_11-05-2019_1653.pdf

 

[wildmanyeah]

Apparently around 40k 52 returned based on Albion numbers but most did not make it past the slide.


2019 Fraser Chinook Preliminary Escapement Estimates

- Spring 42 < 6,000 (brood year escapement >11,000)
– Spring 52 < 3,500 (brood year escapement >28,000)
– Summer 52 < 5,000 (brood year escapement ~28,500)
– Summer 41 ~ 131,400 (brood year escapement ~176,650)
– Fall 41 not yet available (brood year escapement <100,000)

– Productivity for all management units remains low

Spawner abundance is estimated using a number of methods
• mark-recapture studies – Nicola, Harrison, Lower Shuswap, Chilko
• electronic counters – Bonaparte and Deadman
• fence counts at Salmon River (Salmon Arm)
• remaining assessments are through visual surveys (aerial, foot or float)

Enumeration of 2019 Chinook escapement is still ongoing; only preliminary estimates are available at this time

 

[SerengetiGuide]

The question was also asked about why there was not a huge amount visible below the slide and why there were not thousands or morts everywhere.

It sounds like the fish drop back fairly quickly. There are some small streams just south of the slide that were packed with fish. Also some pools south were packed full of fish.

An interesting thing to note is that they radio tagged some fish at the slide that were later caught in some lower Fraser fisheries.

Would they spawn down river? Causing the decline to not be as bad ?!

And is 40,000 5-2’s a good return overall...and based on brood year?

 

[Dave]

Would they spawn down river? Causing the decline to not be as bad ?!

Most likely they are talking sockeye holding in non natal streams. They may spawn but unlikely as their gonads would not have matured due to chronic stress. If they were able to spawn the fry would die anyway as sockeye require a lake for rearing.