Pre-Season Run size forecast for Fraser River Sockeye 2012

[trendsetter]

Looks like if we do get an opening it will be during the summer run and will likely be restricted. Hopefully the test fisheries in Albion later this season show that the return is closer to 6m than 1m.


"For the 2012 forecast there is a one in 10 chance (10% probability) that the total Fraser
Sockeye return will be at or below 743,000, and a nine in 10 chance (90% probability) it
will be at or below 6.6 million, assuming stock productivity is similar to past observations.
The mid-point of this distribution (50% probability) is 2.1 million (there exists a one in two
chance the return will be above or below this value).

Given the below average brood year escapements for a large number of stocks, there is
a three out of four chance the 2012 returns will fall below the cycle average, assuming
stock productivity is similar to past observations. There is only a one in four chance
returns will be above the cycle average.

The total four year old proportion of the 2012 forecast (~75% of the total four plus five
year old forecast at the 50% probability level) is below average (82%). Four year old
proportions ranged from 10% to 98% depending on the stock. This is attributed to the
generally low brood year escapements of four year old versus five year old Sockeye,
particularly for Early Summer and Late Run stocks."

Reference the entire report here : http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/csas-sccs/Publications/SAR-AS/2012/2012_011-eng.pdf

 

[Dennis.t]

Thanks for posting this. But DFO has no clue how many sockeye will return!

 

[trendsetter]

Thanks for posting this. But DFO has no clue how many sockeye will return!

lol. yeah but this at least gives us some idea whether they will open the fishery or not.

 

[fish stalker]

lol. yeah but this at least gives us some idea whether they will open the fishery or not.

no it dosnt lol isnt that exactly what happened two years ago with the sockeye? nope stocks are down closed then 2 limit then so **** we ****** up way to many 4, couldnt even spawn properly there was so many. this was alberni not fraser tho still dfo. i might be a little off but something like that lol

 

[trendsetter]

no it dosnt lol isnt that exactly what happened two years ago with the sockeye? nope stocks are down closed then 2 limit then so **** we ****** up way to many 4, couldnt even spawn properly there was so many. this was alberni not fraser tho still dfo. i might be a little off but something like that lol

Lots of good information in that report; read through it yourself and come to your own conclusions. From what I read out of the data we have about a 50/50 shot at having an opening for the summer run.

 

[AlK]

"Eeny, meeny, miny, moe"
Way to go DFO, you sure know what you'r doing!

 

[alexandramorton]

The reason DFO can't forecast salmon returns anymore is because they are pretending the viruses pouring out of the salmon farms don't exist. Nearly 100% of the farmed Atlantic salmon I have tested from supermarkets have the Norwegian heart virus, others have the Norwegian flu virus. Both of these are dangerous to salmon, but despite labs across the world finding these in BC farm and wild salmon, DFO does nothing! People buying farm salmon are bringing these viruses home to different watersheds across BC and if they wash them before cooking the viruses will be escaping down drains into water systems. Most of the salmon farms in BC are sitting along eastern Vancouver Island, where 1/3 of all BC wild salmon migrate to and from the sea. In the early 1990s the chinook salmon farms were infected with Salmon Leukemia - no one knows where that one came from. So many farmed Chinook died, most companies switched to Atlantics which were more resistant to this virus, but carried other viruses. But some chinook farming continued off Campbell River - the most narrow Fraser sockeye migration passages. DFO wrote a paper describing how 100% of sockeye and chinook became infected with this virus and all the sockeye died and most of the chinook died and THEY DID NOTHING! They and the province of BC left those farms there, in fact they let them expand. When Dr. Miller of DFO found evidence that this virus is in the sockeye and chinook dying in the Fraser River - the fish farmers quietly removed the last of the chinook farms with a history of salmon leukemia in the summer of 2007. The first Fraser sockeye population that went to sea without swimming through the salmon leukemia virus - returned in 2010, without traces of salmon leukemia.

DFO found the Norwegian salmon flu virus in 100% of the Cultus sockeye in 2002/3 but they HID THE PAPER from the public and from the Cohen Inquiry. An independent scientist released it. DFO, the province of BC and the salmon farmers all testified that this virus, called ISA virus, was not in BC and they would have gotten away with this if the paper had not been leaked. Then I started finding it - in sockeye, chinook, coho, chum and farmed Atlantic salmon in supermarkets.

These viruses continue to spill like oil, farm salmon are a bio-hazard and DFO and the province of BC and the fish farmers simply refuse to acknowledge the problem. I am continuing to test for and find the virus, but until people react in a big way government is going to let this continue. They appear to be afraid of the industry, cowering behind threats of trade sanctions.

 

[wolf]

MAYBE those fish will be back from 2 years ago ??? isnt that what gail shea said???? the "LEADER" at that time.

PLEASE keep up the fight ms Morton alot of us on here respect and love the work you do Thank you very much


wolf

 

[salmonboy]

Fish farms should be on land away from any watershed...Just wonder tho do they start atlantic salmon from eggs in the fish farms, or are they already smolts? If they start from eggs i guess the diseases must be passed on through eggs, so the cycle would never end?

 

[salmonboy]

the fish farms use smolts(atlantic salmon)..where do the smolts come from? bc or back east? They must have an egg farm in bc, it would cost too much to ship them from back east. 1 more question holmes...how long does it take for atlantic smolts compaired to pacific salmon to grow in fish farm?

 

[Theb55]

I can answer some questions. According to Morton, Chinook are subject to high mortality rates. Atlantic salmon grow much faster so producers spend much less on food. For those three reasons farms have moved to Atlantic salmon. I may be wrong but think most eggs are imported from Norway or Chile.

 

[slab burn]

Thank you Alexandra Morton for having the courage to report your findings. It just proves that gov'ts lie all the time to cover their ineptitude or their paying buddies that give them kick backs. Such a corrupt gov't system now - for all parties.

In DFO's case it's ineptitude and not caring about the Pacific fisheries. Talk about a useless gov't department where tax money goes to waste. The BC Liberals are just corrupt and don't care about the resources of BC.

 

[salmonboy]

I can answer some questions. According to Morton, Chinook are subject to high mortality rates. Atlantic salmon grow much faster so producers spend much less on food. For those three reasons farms have moved to Atlantic salmon. I may be wrong but think most eggs are imported from Norway or Chile.

from norway or chile ??? that makes alot of sense....why would they do that? the shipping costs would be really high dont u think, if that is true no wonder they get diseases....par for the course i guess...import salmon eggs from chile where they dont even have salmon!!