DFO Fraser Sockeye Report

High Time

Crew Member
Fishery Notice - Fisheries and Oceans Canada

Subject: FN0709-Salmon Sockeye - Areas 11 to 29 - Fraser River Sockeye Update - July 12, 2022

The Fraser River Panel met July 12 to receive an update on the migration of the Fraser Sockeye run to date and review the status of migration conditions in the Fraser River watershed.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of the 2022 Fraser River Sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Fraser Panel for pre-season planning purposes. The majority of Sockeye returning in 2022 will be recruits from adult spawners in 2017 (age 5) and 2018 (age 4). DFO has advised that Fraser River Sockeye salmon forecasts for 2022 continue to be highly uncertain, largely due to variability in annual survival rates and observation error in stock-recruitment data.

For periods of high discharge, the landslide at Big Bar in the Fraser River upstream of Lillooet will continue to be an impediment to upstream migration for Sockeye, Pink, Chinook, and Coho destined for spawning habitats upstream of the slide. Robust assessment programs to evaluate passage success, as well as mitigation measures such as fish transport and brood stock collection for enhancement purposes will continue for the 2022 season. Additional information can be found at the following link:

To put the Sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one in four chance that the actual number of returning Sockeye will be at or below 4,662,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a one in four chance that the actual number of returning Sockeye will be at or above 20,395,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 9,775,000 fish for all management groups. This return is below the cycle average. The largest contributing stocks for the 2022 return are expected to be the Chilko, Quesnel and Late Shuswap Sockeye; with Chilko and Quesnel spawning above the Big Bar landslide.

For 2022 pre-season planning purposes the Early Stuart and Chilko forecast Area 20 median timing estimates were not adopted by the Fraser Panel during the June meeting. The Panel adopted pre-season timing for all stocks were based on historical timing medians. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River Sockeye salmon diverting their migration through Johnstone Strait of 48% was adopted by the Panel for planning purposes. This estimate was the average of two points estimates from different models of 51% and 46%.

The snow pack volume in most areas of the Fraser River watershed has been well above average from late spring through to July of this year. Pre-season water temperatures were predicted to be at or below historical averages for the summer and discharges were predicted to be above to well above historical averages for the early summer period. The observed water temperature at Hope on July 11 was 14.5° Celsius which is 1.8° Celsius below average for this date. Water temperatures are forecast to increase to 16.6° Celsius by July 17. The Fraser River discharge at Hope on July 11 was 9,097 cubic meters per second which is 61% above the average discharge for this date. Discharge levels are forecast to drop to 8,803 cubic meters per second by July 17. Actual water temperatures and discharge levels will be monitored closely during the 2022 return to determine if migration issues develop. At current discharge levels, migration is expected to be delayed in many areas of the Fraser watershed, including but not limited to Hell’s Gate and the Big Bar Landslide.

Management adjustments are additional fish that are removed from identified harvest levels and allowed to escape upstream in an attempt to assist in achievement of identified escapement objectives for the different run timing groups. The Salmon Commission conducted an extensive review of the pre-season and in-season approaches used to determine management adjustments. For pre-season planning purposes, the Fraser Panel adopted management adjustments for Early Stuart based on the median for all years since 1995, Early Summer based on the historical all years median, Summer run sockeye based on the pre-season 31-day temperature and discharge model, and Late run based on the dominant/other years median. The in-season approach to determining management adjustments will remain similar to pre-season for all management groups except for the Early Stuart, which will shift to the in-season Supplemental Approach based on all years since 1977. The Panel will continue to be provided and review the results from the historical temperature and discharge models as well as observation of fish health throughout the watershed when making in-season decisions.

Gill net test fishing began in the Fraser River on June 22 at Whonnock, with the first Sockeye catches reported on June 30. Catches at Whonnock have been variable but steadily increasing. The start-up of the Qualark Creek test fishery and Qualark hydroacoustic program have been delayed due to high water. The Cottonwood and Brownsville Bar gill net test fisheries are scheduled to begin on July 12 and 14, respectively. The Brownsville Bar test fishery is being evaluated as a replacement for Cottonwood which has been ineffective in recent years.

The marine gill net test fishery in Area 20 began on July 10, with catches of 74 and 140 reported from 1 of the 2 vessels fishing on July 10 and 11. The marine gill net test fishery at Round Island is scheduled to begin this evening, and the marine purse seine test fisheries in Areas 12, 13 and 20 are scheduled to commence on July 24, July 26 and July 25, respectively.

The total escapement estimate to July 11 is estimated to be 113,400, of which 109,400 are estimated to be Early Stuart and 4,000 are estimated to be Early Summer run Sockeye. In-season assessment of Early Stuart Sockeye will be provided later in July once more information becomes available. In-season assessment of all run timing groups generally occurs shortly after identification of their peak migration through marine areas.

Currently, First Nations food, social and ceremonial (FSC) sockeye fisheries are closed due a 4-week window closure to protect Early Stuart and the earlier-timed Early Summer run stocks. Very limited fishing opportunities directed at Chinook salmon for ceremonial purposes have occurred to date. The start-up of sockeye directed FSC fisheries is not anticipated until Fraser Sockeye total allowable catch (TAC) is identified. FSC fishers in marine approach areas as well as the Fraser River are requested to check for the opening times and any restrictions in their local area. Commercial and recreational fisheries directed at Fraser Sockeye remain closed at this time.

The next in-season meeting of the Fraser River Panel is scheduled to occur on July 15, 2022.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:

Regional Salmon Team – DFO Pacific
DFO.PacificSalmonRMT-EGRSaumonduPacifique.MPO@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
 
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