gamechanger
Well-Known Member
If you thought that last summers offshore chinook fisheries were awesome, get ready for what's coming. The WCVI abundance index (AI) is forecast to be 0.96. Last summer it came in at 0.61.
With El nino there will be lot's of sardines around, so those fish will be feeding like crazy out there (please no mackeral) and it should be awesome fishing on big migratory slabs.
Get ready for awesome chinook fisheries offshore this summer. This will be a summer not to be missed
-millsy
PSC Chinook Technical Committee
TO: Pacific Salmon Commission
DATE: March 30, 2010
SUBJECT: Preseason AABM Fishery Abundance Indices for 2010 and Post-Season Abundance Indices for 2009
The Chinook Technical Committee (CTC) has completed a final calibration (#1007) of the Chinook Model for the upcoming (2010) fishing season. The completed calibration provides the Abundance Indices (AI) that are required for determining the preseason estimated allowable catches for the three Aggregate Abundance Based Management (AABM) fisheries: Southeast Alaska all gear (SEAK), Northern British Columbia troll and Queen Charlotte Island sport (NBC), and West Coast Vancouver Island troll and outside sport (WCVI). The AIs and the associated allowable catches are shown in Table 1. It should be noted that 2010 is the second year that the Annex IV provisions of the 2008 PST agreement will be implemented. Therefore, the allowable catches in Table 1 represent a 15% reduction for SEAK, 0% reduction for NBC and a 30% reduction for WCVI from the allowable catches under the 1999 PST agreement.
Table 1. Abundance indices and associated allowable catches for the 2010 AABM Fisheries.
SEAK NBC WCVI
Abundance Index 1.35 1.17 0.96
Allowable Catch 221,800 152,100 143,700
The 2009 Preseason and Post-Season AIs, associated allowable catches and the observed catches for the AABM fisheries are shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Preseason and Post-Season Abundance indices, associated allowable catches and the observed catches for the 2009 AABM fisheries.
Preseason
SEAK NBC WCVI
Abundance Index 1.33 1.10 0.72
Allowable Catch 218,800 143,000 107,800
Post-Season
Observed Catch 214,451 109,470 124,617
Abundance Index 1.20 1.07 0.61
Allowable Catch 176,000 139,100 91,300
The 2009 Post-Season AIs are lower than the preseason AIs across all three AABM fisheries. This happened because the vast majority of model stocks with agency forecasts actually returned below forecasted levels.
The CTC is currently preparing a PSC document that will contain the Chinook salmon catches and escapements through 2009, which the CTC plans to finalize by June, 2010. The CTC will also prepare a PSC document containing the results of the exploitation rate analysis and model calibration for 2010. This report will also contain the Post-Season AIs for the AABM fisheries and non-ceiling indices for the Individual Stock Based Management (ISBM) fisheries. The CTC is scheduled to finalize this report by July, 2010.
With El nino there will be lot's of sardines around, so those fish will be feeding like crazy out there (please no mackeral) and it should be awesome fishing on big migratory slabs.
Get ready for awesome chinook fisheries offshore this summer. This will be a summer not to be missed
-millsy
PSC Chinook Technical Committee
TO: Pacific Salmon Commission
DATE: March 30, 2010
SUBJECT: Preseason AABM Fishery Abundance Indices for 2010 and Post-Season Abundance Indices for 2009
The Chinook Technical Committee (CTC) has completed a final calibration (#1007) of the Chinook Model for the upcoming (2010) fishing season. The completed calibration provides the Abundance Indices (AI) that are required for determining the preseason estimated allowable catches for the three Aggregate Abundance Based Management (AABM) fisheries: Southeast Alaska all gear (SEAK), Northern British Columbia troll and Queen Charlotte Island sport (NBC), and West Coast Vancouver Island troll and outside sport (WCVI). The AIs and the associated allowable catches are shown in Table 1. It should be noted that 2010 is the second year that the Annex IV provisions of the 2008 PST agreement will be implemented. Therefore, the allowable catches in Table 1 represent a 15% reduction for SEAK, 0% reduction for NBC and a 30% reduction for WCVI from the allowable catches under the 1999 PST agreement.
Table 1. Abundance indices and associated allowable catches for the 2010 AABM Fisheries.
SEAK NBC WCVI
Abundance Index 1.35 1.17 0.96
Allowable Catch 221,800 152,100 143,700
The 2009 Preseason and Post-Season AIs, associated allowable catches and the observed catches for the AABM fisheries are shown in Table 2.
Table 2. Preseason and Post-Season Abundance indices, associated allowable catches and the observed catches for the 2009 AABM fisheries.
Preseason
SEAK NBC WCVI
Abundance Index 1.33 1.10 0.72
Allowable Catch 218,800 143,000 107,800
Post-Season
Observed Catch 214,451 109,470 124,617
Abundance Index 1.20 1.07 0.61
Allowable Catch 176,000 139,100 91,300
The 2009 Post-Season AIs are lower than the preseason AIs across all three AABM fisheries. This happened because the vast majority of model stocks with agency forecasts actually returned below forecasted levels.
The CTC is currently preparing a PSC document that will contain the Chinook salmon catches and escapements through 2009, which the CTC plans to finalize by June, 2010. The CTC will also prepare a PSC document containing the results of the exploitation rate analysis and model calibration for 2010. This report will also contain the Post-Season AIs for the AABM fisheries and non-ceiling indices for the Individual Stock Based Management (ISBM) fisheries. The CTC is scheduled to finalize this report by July, 2010.
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