searun
Well-Known Member
The Area 23 Harvest Round Table met today to review various sockeye forecast models with the objective of reaching agreement on a preliminary pre-season forecast, and set fishing plans for the early season based the forecast.
We reviewed 4 predictive model outputs (forecasts), discussing the outputs from each and also comparing those against prior season performance accuracy (actual run size vs model predictions). While most models were relatively close (with one outlier), we adopted a working pre-season forecast of 750,000. This represents the low end of a high abundance forecast (700k to 1 million being high). Contrasting the Sprout and Great Central Lake forecast is the Hucukltius (Henderson) sockeye which is forecast to be low abundance at 15,000 to 20,000.
There were/are 4 significant concerns in terms of how to approach and plan a fishery with the number 1 objective of ensuring conservation objectives are achieved. Those are; 1) significant concerns over extremely low water levels in both lakes and lowest stream flows on record; 2) above average seasonal land temp predictions; 3) well below average snow pack - possibly lowest on record at 44% of average; 4) significant concerns regarding planning fisheries that avoid incidental catch/mortality of Henderson sockeye given the continuation of a very low abundance trend spanning over a decade.
The Round Table discussed various adjustments to the fishing plans to address the 4 significant concerns, while also finding sustainable fishing plan options. So despite the high abundance, we adopted fishing plans that are more conservative than might otherwise normally be implemented in a high abundance year. We also agreed that once test fishing data was available after June 18 we would re-visit the forecast to make adjustments that reflect an updated understanding of how the fishery is actually developing to augment/adjust the pre-season forecast. So fishing plans will be reviewed and based on updated data will be amended accordingly. Doing in-season adjustments is a normal practice, and the HRT meets weekly to review the latest data on fishery performance, biological metrics, and escapement performance.
Fishing Plans (high level summary):
Recreational - there will be a Fishery Notice (please refer to that just in case I have misapprehended a detail) coming out in next week outlining our plan to open sockeye on May 1 with daily retention of 4. This will be re-visited and if the actual run size performs lower than the forecast there may be amendments (applies to all fishery types).
Somas FN's will fish 4 days/week for Economic Opportunity fishery + FSC opportunities
Area B Seine - will fish to target (i forgot to jot down their start date but seem to recall if will be the week of June 17
Area D Gill Net - will fish to 3 days in June (every Tuesday for 12 hour openings) starting the 2nd week of June - Note for vessels transiting the fishing areas during the Gill Net fishery - fishers will continue to make their nets more visible to vessel operators by placing larger white floats/buoy at intervals along their nets while fishing. For June you can also expect to see Gill Net fishers in the Alberni Inlet as well as in Barkley Sound. July 1 onwards, to reduce incidental catch of Henderson Sockeye, Gill Net fishery will restricted to stay inside the Alberni Inlet (no fishing in Barkley Sound) from Pocahontas Point.
The preliminary forecast is certainly welcome news for all stakeholders. This fishery will generate significant benefits for all. The Area 23 Harvest Round Table group (FN's, Commercial, Recreational and DFO) works collaboratively to plan sustainable fishing plans designed to help each group achieve their fishery plan objectives.
The Area 23 HRT also supports respectful fishing practices by all stakeholders - lets respect each group and work collaboratively on the water to enjoy this special fishery together please.
We reviewed 4 predictive model outputs (forecasts), discussing the outputs from each and also comparing those against prior season performance accuracy (actual run size vs model predictions). While most models were relatively close (with one outlier), we adopted a working pre-season forecast of 750,000. This represents the low end of a high abundance forecast (700k to 1 million being high). Contrasting the Sprout and Great Central Lake forecast is the Hucukltius (Henderson) sockeye which is forecast to be low abundance at 15,000 to 20,000.
There were/are 4 significant concerns in terms of how to approach and plan a fishery with the number 1 objective of ensuring conservation objectives are achieved. Those are; 1) significant concerns over extremely low water levels in both lakes and lowest stream flows on record; 2) above average seasonal land temp predictions; 3) well below average snow pack - possibly lowest on record at 44% of average; 4) significant concerns regarding planning fisheries that avoid incidental catch/mortality of Henderson sockeye given the continuation of a very low abundance trend spanning over a decade.
The Round Table discussed various adjustments to the fishing plans to address the 4 significant concerns, while also finding sustainable fishing plan options. So despite the high abundance, we adopted fishing plans that are more conservative than might otherwise normally be implemented in a high abundance year. We also agreed that once test fishing data was available after June 18 we would re-visit the forecast to make adjustments that reflect an updated understanding of how the fishery is actually developing to augment/adjust the pre-season forecast. So fishing plans will be reviewed and based on updated data will be amended accordingly. Doing in-season adjustments is a normal practice, and the HRT meets weekly to review the latest data on fishery performance, biological metrics, and escapement performance.
Fishing Plans (high level summary):
Recreational - there will be a Fishery Notice (please refer to that just in case I have misapprehended a detail) coming out in next week outlining our plan to open sockeye on May 1 with daily retention of 4. This will be re-visited and if the actual run size performs lower than the forecast there may be amendments (applies to all fishery types).
Somas FN's will fish 4 days/week for Economic Opportunity fishery + FSC opportunities
Area B Seine - will fish to target (i forgot to jot down their start date but seem to recall if will be the week of June 17
Area D Gill Net - will fish to 3 days in June (every Tuesday for 12 hour openings) starting the 2nd week of June - Note for vessels transiting the fishing areas during the Gill Net fishery - fishers will continue to make their nets more visible to vessel operators by placing larger white floats/buoy at intervals along their nets while fishing. For June you can also expect to see Gill Net fishers in the Alberni Inlet as well as in Barkley Sound. July 1 onwards, to reduce incidental catch of Henderson Sockeye, Gill Net fishery will restricted to stay inside the Alberni Inlet (no fishing in Barkley Sound) from Pocahontas Point.
The preliminary forecast is certainly welcome news for all stakeholders. This fishery will generate significant benefits for all. The Area 23 Harvest Round Table group (FN's, Commercial, Recreational and DFO) works collaboratively to plan sustainable fishing plans designed to help each group achieve their fishery plan objectives.
The Area 23 HRT also supports respectful fishing practices by all stakeholders - lets respect each group and work collaboratively on the water to enjoy this special fishery together please.
