Future Halibut Possession Regs

[searun]

Yes, longest season possible recognizes that the Halibut WG may need to look at decisions to either delay the start, end the season early or other combination of options like limiting the number of days the fishery is open each week or any other ideas that might surface in the discussion. Obviously it all depends on the TAC we get. As wisely suggested, we need to think ahead of time about what you might need to do if its a bad TAC decision. Easier said than done if we are faced with that.

Had a quick look at the option table, and if the 1:1 (120/124cm) assumption was increased above the 15%, that could get us (in theory) a full season at 10% reduced TAC but it will be close. There are risk factors, which I didn't apply though and I'm not an expert in excel.

I'm still hopeful that the set line data tells a different scientific story about how Canada is managing the fishery. The WPUE is up, as is the NPUE. Fingers crossed the U32 NPUE is way up. Had an interesting conversation with guide operator from up Island who had very large numbers of small halibut (well under U32). That could be linked to the bait (loads of needlefish). We saw exceptionally fat and larger fish in my area, but the black cod were thick, which provided really good food/growing conditions for larger fish. So the spatial distribution of halibut by size could be related to available food. Who really knows - just a theory. This year is shaping up to be one where Canada's Conference Board will need to be very sharp, and prepared.

 

[GLG]

Don't forget that there is an error in the table for the 1:1 option. It assumes 15% reduction. We recently learned (after the table was produced) that from the IARC data 30% is the actual percentage of all folks who fished halibut, who caught their full 2 fish limit. That 30% isn't a solid number to use as an adjustment, we need to account for shifting fishing behaviour etc. Maybe something in the low 20% range is more appropriate. That said, when re-worked some of the 1:1 options might work.

Here is what the numbers calculate out if you change that 15% reduction to 20%. I setup the spreadsheet to adjust that % so if you want me to post something else just ask.

 

[searun]

Thanks for re-working the table. Pretty much exactly what the 120/124 options looked like with my old fashioned calculator. As much as I would like to see 126 or 133 work, they don't add up to what the TAC would be if we saw a 10% reduction over the 2018 TAC.

 

[wildmanyeah]

I am not a fan of limiting it to certain days of the week. I don't no if their would be that much of a reduction but maybe the reduction on paper would be enough. Do they even have rec catch data for each day of the week?

 

[searun]

I am not a fan of limiting it to certain days of the week. I don't no if their would be that much of a reduction but maybe the reduction on paper would be enough. Do they even have rec catch data for each day of the week?

No one has run that scenario yet. We might get desperate enough to go there depending on the IPHC outcome. I think OBD was suggesting we take a look at pre-planning so those alternative are at the ready just in case they are needed - I agree with his analysis that we best be thinking now about creative options that might achieve that balance between getting the best quality fishery and staying within the available TAC.

 

[OldBlackDog]

Yes that is exactly what I was suggesting.

As noted throughout there is little to no time to review with the complete SFAB once the numbers come down.

The committee needs direction from the SFAC’s to deal with this.

So, if Gill will run some numbers showing worse case numbers and what might work?

Showing weekend was a question as to how stretch out the numbers and allow most to get out.

No one has run that scenario yet. We might get desperate enough to go there depending on the IPHC outcome. I think OBD was suggesting we take a look at pre-planning so those alternative are at the ready just in case they are needed - I agree with his analysis that we best be thinking now about creative options that might achieve that balance between getting the best quality fishery and staying within the available TAC.

 

[ILHG]

Folks, would it be possible to add restrictions to Non-Canadian residents license? (Not trying to stir anything up) DFO should have a volume of foreigners buying saltwater license?

 

[searun]

Folks, would it be possible to add restrictions to Non-Canadian residents license? (Not trying to stir anything up) DFO should have a volume of foreigners buying saltwater license?

I suppose you could - but lots of potential issues there.

Modelling weekend only is a possibility - basically taking the month and dividing up the number of days to calculate the per day catch, then multiply by the number of weekend days and there you go. Of course you would need to model in something for shifting effort, so you wouldn't gain the full benefit on a pro-rata approach if that makes sense. Maybe weekends only in the shoulder seasons of Feb to May, then Oct to Dec? Looking at the monthly catch data your big catch months are June to Sept. I suspect most people would want full access during those months.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

GLG, I'm curious as to see pre season forecast of TAC caught over the past 6 seasons for options we took and what we actually ended up taking. I'm fairly sure 5/6 years that 10% wasn't needed and in fact left in the water (majority of those 5 years excessive left in water), but I can try to see if I can find all the pre season forecast TAC's in my email somewhere and check that.

 

[GLG]

I am not a fan of limiting it to certain days of the week. I don't no if their would be that much of a reduction but maybe the reduction on paper would be enough. Do they even have rec catch data for each day of the week?

Agree with you on this one as me trying to model the data without having an accurate day by day and then having to guessing what the carry over would be is way out there into the Wild butt Guess space. So with that said I did it anyway.
Took the grand total and found 2/7 (2 out of 7 days) and added back 50% for effort carry over.
A WAG at best and should not replace what the pros at DFO could do.

 

[OldBlackDog]

Agree with you on this one as me trying to model the data without having an accurate day by day and then having to guessing what the carry over would be is way out there into the Wild butt Guess space. So with that said I did it anyway.
Took the grand total and found 2/7 (2 out of 7 days) and added back 50% for effort carry over.
A WAG at best and should not replace what the pros at DFO could do.

Awesome job.

So, using the worse case scenario of loosing 20% from this year, if you add one other day can we get a years fishing?

Thanks

 

[GLG]

GLG, I'm curious as to see pre season forecast of TAC caught over the past 6 seasons for options we took and what we actually ended up taking. I'm fairly sure 5/6 years that 10% wasn't needed and in fact left in the water (majority of those 5 years excessive left in water), but I can try to see if I can find all the pre season forecast TAC's in my email somewhere and check that.

I have done that before and the problem with back casting is the model changes and so do our choices. Each choice is like a different model as there is no relationship between the different sizes that I have found. What that means is we could use the same model but change the choice and get opposite results. Throw in the price of gas or the weather and try to compare years.... So with that said let's look at the 2017 season. We went over and had to close the season early. Clearly the model underestimate our TAC. Fast forward to this season and we are still open and from what I hear is we should end up with 6% of the TAC left over. That number is an informed guess but does not include September so that could change that % by 2 or more points. IMHO DFO model is far better than anything I could do and I'm pretty good with this stuff.

 

[GLG]

Awesome job.

So, using the worse case scenario of loosing 20% from this year, if you add one other day can we get a years fishing?

Thanks

Don't take these numbers seriously they are at best a thought experiment (wild butt guess). I have no idea what the effort carry over is and that is critical to making the final number. The fraction is just a number and may not meet with reality either as effort on a week day could be way different then a weekend. With that said here is another wild butt guess with a 3 day guestimation. It's all in fun

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Awesome job.

So, using the worse case scenario of loosing 20% from this year, if you add one other day can we get a years fishing?

Thanks

That’s interesting numbers produced glg

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Yes I do realize 2017 we did go over but my
Point is 5/6 (83% of time) we had room. I’d take those odds. And 4/6 we were well well under. Can’t ignore that fact just like can’t ignore 1/6 we went over.

 

[searun]

If we are thinking of 2 fish, even if we stay at this year's regulation (115/83), that would put us over by 41K with a 10% reduction in TAC, and by 134K at 20% reduction. Listening to what I have heard from people so far, 115 cm fish isn't what they are hoping to see. If we want a larger fish, that will mean making some trade off's like some have been discussing here. Good idea to discuss at your SFAC what you don't want, as much as what you do want. That will provide the SFAB Main Board and Halibut WG with guidance as to what people value most. This year the IPHC decision will come out Feb 01, so we won't likely be able to look at a Feb 1 opening, and frankly will need to go to the SFAB MB meeting Feb 7 - 9.

 

[SerengetiGuide]

According to IPHC November catch report we left 120,000 lbs in the water? Not number I heard at meeting (unless meeting number added experimental fishery which it shouldn’t)

 

[SerengetiGuide]

Just looking at numbers since 2013, without 100% confidence in this years numbers, only one year since 2012 have we NOT left more than 100,000 lbs in the water... yet we insist on a 10% cushion? Maybe, maybe, I can see a 5% making sense, but seems like the 10% is just shooting ourselves in the foot (don't say, ya, but one year it saved us, as you have to look at how 5/6 years it further restricted us unnecessarily).

 

[searun]

Numbers are not yet available so I wouldn’t read anything into what you saw there. I heard it will likely be under by around 50,000. We also have the US side barking about release morts. Another factor that isn’t modelled. In other words there’s more going on beyond what you see in the tables.

No one has given up on the over/under carry over issue either btw

 

[Derby]

the Mort number could have some impacts...