Fraser Sockeye 2025

[ryanonthevedder]

So things are tracking along very well for ye olde Fraser River sockeye and DFO has suggested a rec opening is probable if the run continues to track above their P75 prediction model (currently flirting with P90 at 6.4m fish). With all the area closures around the Fraser I wonder what an opening would look like out in the briny stuff rather than the beekfest up here Chilliwack...

Thoughts?

 

[Old Blue]

Keep it closed and see what the next cycle can do. Commies and FN want an opening so it'll probably happen though.

 

[SpringVelocity]

Open it.

 

[Dave]

With the Fraser river nearing 20 degrees, the Nechako likely warmer still, and turbidity issues on the Chilcotin, there will be significant pre spawn mortalities... keep it closed!

 

[Hightide]

I’ve read that the area 12 seine test boat has had the best 3 days of test fishing they have ever had in July for Fraser river sockeye. Heard it’s tracking to be similar to 2010

 

[ryanonthevedder]

I’ve read that the area 12 seine test boat has had the best 3 days of test fishing they have ever had in July for Fraser river sockeye. Heard it’s tracking to be similar to 2010

Correct.

What ever happened in the Pacific these last years was exceptionally kind to the 2021 brood, and there should be plenty to go around.

The question/discussion was what would a sockeye opening look like with all the area closures in front of the Fraser? Will Gower be the sockeye hotspot, or Thrasher or?

 

[Hightide]

Just to clarify I’ve heard 30million+ are coming so should be a super bonanza

 

[ryanonthevedder]

Just to clarify I’ve heard 30million+ are coming so should be a super bonanza

You might be thinking Pinks which are currently projected at 27m fish. Fraser sockeye were expected to come in at 2.9m but are tracking over 6m in early test fisheries.

 

[ryanonthevedder]

Here's the link to the current info https://www.psc.org/wp-admin/admin-...ry_id=721&wpfd_file_id=19332&token=&preview=1

and there'll be fresh analysis tomorrow

 

[Hightide]

Nope I’m thinking sockeye. Just heard today was the biggest one day seine test ever recorded in July at over 14,000 sockeye caught! Seems removing those fish farms 4 years ago may have had a positive impact after all. If you look at the test fishing data more sockeye has been caught than pinks so far


DFO is pretty useless at managing salmon now, it’s borderline criminal how they do things. in there graph you just showed they have an in season estimate that’s already lower than the total counted so far of the early Stuart run. Up on the skeena they just said they “accidentally used the wrong multiplier” and have already let 200,000+ extra fish up the river that could have been caught.

 

[Hightide]

https://www.psc.org/TestFish/Area12PSsummary.PDF

 

[cuttlefish]

With the Fraser river nearing 20 degrees, the Nechako likely warmer still, and turbidity issues on the Chilcotin, there will be significant pre spawn mortalities... keep it closed!

I agree. And keep those fish farms closed as well. Let’s see what August brings.

 

[SG2.0]

Still plenty of farms open on their route. Only say this as I hate seeing this fake narrative pushed by Alexandra.

 

[SpringFever2359]

Nope I’m thinking sockeye. Just heard today was the biggest one day seine test ever recorded in July at over 14,000 sockeye caught! Seems removing those fish farms 4 years ago may have had a positive impact after all. If you look at the test fishing data more sockeye has been caught than pinks so far


DFO is pretty useless at managing salmon now, it’s borderline criminal how they do things. in there graph you just showed they have an in season estimate that’s already lower than the total counted so far of the early Stuart run. Up on the skeena they just said they “accidentally used the wrong multiplier” and have already let 200,000+ extra fish up the river that could have been caught.

how do you explain the 2010 returns

 

[ryanonthevedder]

Nope I’m thinking sockeye. Just heard today was the biggest one day seine test ever recorded in July at over 14,000 sockeye caught! Seems removing those fish farms 4 years ago may have had a positive impact after all. If you look at the test fishing data more sockeye has been caught than pinks so far


DFO is pretty useless at managing salmon now, it’s borderline criminal how they do things. in there graph you just showed they have an in season estimate that’s already lower than the total counted so far of the early Stuart run. Up on the skeena they just said they “accidentally used the wrong multiplier” and have already let 200,000+ extra fish up the river that could have been caught.

Just saw the report; 14k.

Not a drill fellas

 

[wildmanyeah]

It’s still kinda early yeah it looks like early Stuart’s are having one of their best returns since 1997 but they are a cosewic listed stock now

Chilko is forecasted to have the large return with a harvestable surplus but they are having issues from the slide they had last year, bad water quality. They are also mixed with sockeye and chinook stocks of concern.

the summer sockeye run overlaps with endangered chinook runs ect…

The test numbers are also from area 12 seine and seine chase schools so they have been unreliable in the past, also if there is a big diversion rate to the inside can throw off this ect.

When there was bad seine sets the fishermen were claiming oh the fish are here they just are not schooling or they travel deep now below are nets ect

The area 20 jdf seine sets have not been good.

The question/discussion was what would a sockeye opening look like with all the area closures in front of the Fraser? Will Gower be the sockeye hotspot, or Thrasher or?

Sandheads, t10 ect are open for pinks and coho so they would just open it for sockeye.

So would not have to go far fish the same areas we always do.

 

[wildmanyeah]

I agree. And keep those fish farms closed as well. Let’s see what August brings.

We want the fish farms shut down they are killing all the fish,

Oh there is fish returning, now i want to be the one to kill them all.

Oh there is no fish returning again or must be all Thoes fish farms they left.

 

[wildmanyeah]

how do you explain the 2010 returns

Yea and the Brighton’s also had the largest returns of picks as well when fish farms were around.

As we all know returns are highly variable

But is often the case with random
Numbers people look to find meaning in them.

The returns are obviously looking good because trump was elected and fired all the people that work for NOAA.

 

[Hightide]

how do you explain the 2010 returns

Outlier. Nature finds a way sometimes.

Having a disease riddled cesspool along the migration certainly isn’t helping any wild salmon survive.

after a lot of the farms have been removed all salmon have seen a huge increase in numbers across BC. Last few years look at the amount of coho and chinook showing up.

If these sockeye numbers hold up and just looking at the early Stuart run being 8x above estimates already. It’ll definitely got to 10x. Why won’t the 2m estimate turn to 20million. Pretty big coincidence it’s happening 4 years after fish farm removal on a non peak year.

The seine boat can only catch the fish if they are there, they wouldn’t catch 14,000 sockeye in one day if there wasn’t an enormous amount of fish. the best day they have ever had in July in 20 years of testing with the previous 3 days smashing the record already. This is early in the run

 

[swimmingwiththefishes]

I don’t really understand the pro fish farm sport fish lobby. Please explain to me how fish farms are good for BC Salmon stocks.

Just about the only thing Turdo has done that I support is the farm removals and things are looking good.

When the stocks crash back down in a year or two the pro fish farm sport fish lobby can brag back at me.

I say they open the Fraser. If it’s not one thing it’s another excuse for them to keep public fisheries closed. If the numbers are there we should be able to fish on them