From Pacific Angler / Jason Tonelli today:
Sockeye Update:
The phones are ringing constantly as everyone wants to know about sockeye. So, let’s get right to it. I was in the DFO & SFAB Sockeye Working Group meeting this past Wednesday and here is what I learned.
Here is the latest info. The estimate of 9.7 million is based on a p50 forecast. The run is tracking closer to the 10% level, especially the past week and a half, so that is called a p10 level. A p10 level will not be sufficient to allow a commercial and recreational harvest and even a p25 level of around 4.35 million in total when the run is said and done, will likely not be enough to trigger an opening.
The main part of the run will be showing up in the next 2 weeks and if things don’t increase to at least a p25 and up to a p50 level by next week then the probability of an opening is very low.
The data coming down the pipe is all tracking p10 to p25, so as each day passes the probability of an opening is certainly decreasing. Sockeye don’t show up 2-3 weeks late, so don’t count on the “they are just late argument.” They have a fairly finite fat reserve and each runs migration window is pretty tight. They have days of reserves, but not weeks. There have also been statistical models run where they pushed the run timing back a week and it still doesn’t look great.
As fishermen, we are always optimistic, and anything can happen, so we hope a huge push shows up that changes things. That being said, it certainly isn’t looking that way as of today. I wish we had better news, but so far this is what the data is telling us. Next meeting with DFO will be next Wednesday and I will have an update in next week’s fishing report.