There have been 982 posts on this thread since Chuck introduced it on Oct 10, 2017
I may have missed seeing the link below and if so please accept my apologies, if not it is definitely worth a read!
Fish Farms a Viral Hotspot for Infection of B.C.’s Wild Salmon, New Study Finds
By
Judith Lavoie • Thursday, December 14, 2017 - 13:14
https://www.desmog.ca/2017/12/14/fi...t-infection-b-c-s-wild-salmon-new-study-finds
It’s taken me awhile to respond to this study but it really needs rebuttal. Not groundbreaking at all and once again flawed and incomplete.
The study, in my opinion, used a very poor sample size with very unequal representation. Look at the raw data provided to see where the samples were from within the Fraser watershed - those upstream and downstream of Hope. Of course infection rate is greater in the lower regions if that’s where most of the samples are from. Additionally, just because you catch an adult salmon at one location doesn’t necessarily mean that’s its final destination, so it throws the catagorizing of challenged and not challenged by the authors into question. Those captured in the ocean could very well be heading to terminal areas in the mid and upper Fraser, so by definition they would be in the challenged catagory. This is why statisticians are not fisheries biologists.
In those catch areas the fish could have all been handled differently if caught by recreational anglers and First Nations. In order to make broad population inferences one should do a more extensive, structured surveillance of wild salmonids which the authors admitted was lacking in their study.
Second, the authors categorizing of “significant migratory challenges” is too vague and incomplete and doesn’t address what the migratory conditions were at the time. That’s a very significant omission. Nowhere in the study do the authors put context to their findings by saying what the environmental conditions (specifically the Fraser) were during the sampling period in 2012 and 2013. Also, those conditions can change within the migration from month to month, from run timing group to run timing group. For instance, Early Stuart Sockeye can typically face some significant migratory challenges in some years through Hell’s Gate in June and July due to much much higher discharge following spring freshet. Early Summer to Summers Sockeye can experience higher water temperatures some years, but Late Summer Sockeye can often avoid those late on in September and October.
What might be a major migratory difficulty one year might not be so much the next. It is true that places like Hell’s Gate and the other migratory bottlenecks can be difficult places for salmon migration, but it depends on what the river discharge and water temperatures are at the time. Pacific salmonids have water discharge and temperature thresholds where migration can be difficult, but not so much below those levels. Some years had very high water temperatures in the Fraser but that didn’t necessarily translate into major prespawn mortality. Instead, the authors make it black and white (i.e. challenged or not) which in reality isn’t what its really like.
Thirdly, what are these PRV infected salmon relative to what actually escaped to the spawning grounds in 2012 and 2013 if we are looking at the adult escapement. In 2013, some Fraser CUs that escaped to the spawning grounds did better than cycle year averages. Yet the authors claim that PRV infected salmon could be experiencing migratory difficulties due to bad hearts. Well the spawning ground escapements for many CUs don’t appear to corroborate those claims in 2013. Statistics are great, but they should be ground truthed. Nowhere in the study do the authors say how those results relate to what actually escaped to the spawning grounds. That’s pretty important.
Lastly, HSMI has not been documented in wild salmon in BC or even in Norway. The authors even state:
However, HSMI has not been reported in wild or captive Pacific salmon.
How many of the samples in the study were examined for HSMI? Apparently, PRV is this very deadly virus to wild Pacific salmonids and no testing for the disease, HSMI. Did Morton’s supermarket samples show HSMI? Show the same voracity and skepticism for this as you do the recent DFO study.