...We live in a world of feel good science right now, and it is actually causing more harm then good.... .
I don't think we do at all, spopadyn. I am very appreciative of the scientific tools we now have at our disposal to figure things out - that we never had 20+ years ago – like satellite and sonic tags, GPS, GIS, ocean gliders, and a host of other instruments and connectedness (e.g. The WWW on which we are now communicating).
We do however live in a world of “feel bad” politics associated with supporting and misleading PR scripts. That is why I continually advocate for an actual EA process for this and other industries where there is consensus-based decision making based on refereed and accredited information (of which the proponent should provide proof of no or negligible impacts – not the posters on this forum) – something this industry has successfully opposed for all of it's existence so far in Canada.
... If you shut down all the FF's and it has no effect on the salmon population other then to create additional pressures on the wilds stocks, what do we do? What is plan B? ...
I think I and other posters have been pretty consistent about CC and interim measures in getting us there – like risk assessment and management – like looking at wild/cultured stock interactions using appropriate tools (agent-based modelling verses siting criteria for one example) – and getting them off the worst locations – like the Discovery Islands smolt migration routes.
... PVR and other pathogens all may be exacerbated by FF's, but if the effect is actually negligible, you won't save your salmon. This genie is already out of the bottle...
Unfortunately, I agree with your assessment of the genie being out of the bottle – but this is something we should learn from – learn that the promoters should NOT be the regulators – that there has been some collusion and lying by both the regulators and the industry – and we need not to let them to do so w/o accountability checks and balances – including having a real-time notification process with geographic coordinates attached to every disease outbreak so we can learn from them things like transfer risk, mortality, epidemiology, virulence, etc.
The issue I have is that BC Chum and BC coho demonstrated record returns in areas where they were exposed to fish farms. The Pink salmon is the only appreciable negative difference based upon the data. What we should be doing is trying to explain why in the presence of FF's did the exposed Coho and Chum stocks have record returns where the Pinks showed a decline? This is what I don't get. Can someone help me as to why this happens. If the FF is causing a 50% decline in salmon populations, why did the exposed areas of chums and cohos have these all time high returns - either the data must be wrong or the hypothesis is off? Based on the data above, one could even argue that the chum salmon is benefiting from the FF's. Is there any more up to date data that can help with this?...
Again – I think some of this has been discussed at length on this thread and others – including myself and other posters attaching dozens and dozens of peer-reviewed science articles on these issues. All you (or bones or any other poster) have to do – if you are interested – is read the available science – often generated in spite of the industry's attempt to hide issues such as fish health.
However, one more time – I will summarize and share what I know on these issues:
Pinks and chums are very, very tiny when they outmigrate from their natal creeks – as opposed to other Pacific salmon juveniles. They cannot withstand very much sea lice loading as expressed as number of lice per gram of host weight. They are most at risk from interactions from fish farms since they are so small and rear for some weeks in areas that sometimes contain multiple exposures to cumulative lice loading amplification from the open net-pen industry – like in the Discovery Islands area.
Then there are other potential impacts – like disease-causing organisms – such as PRv, ISAv, IHN, etc. As fish get stressed – like at spawning time and during acclimation to fresh from salt – or from salt to freshwater – their immune systems are lowered. During that time latent diseases can overwhelm a fish hosts defenses and cause mortality – either directly – or indirectly.
Yet again, FFs and their open net-pen technology can amplify those disease agents into a high enough density to overwhelm a hosts defenses – and the raising (protecting and feeding) of FF fish selects for high virulence disease-causing organisms – as well as potentially introducing novel diseases to naive hosts. Unless one is there during an outbreak sampling adjacent wild stocks – then - otta sight – otta mind – the usual – and when those impacted stocks return in reduced abundances as surviving adults – that decrease in ocean survival rate can be attributed to many other causes.
And finally – no – there is no standard “50%” reduction in wild stock survival rate due to FF impacts – it varies wildly – but as mentioned numerous times already – is site and species and cohort-specific.