I don't know. Then again, I've never priced out a new engine and transmission for any new gas vehicle in its first months of ownership either.
Ford has a 8 year/160,000 km warranty on battery. That's longer than the 5 years/100,000 km offered on their ICE power trains. Seems to indicate a fair degree of confidence in the product.
Except for manufacturing defects that reveal themselves within days or weeks, EV batteries don't fail like gas or diesel engines and transmissions do. They slowly lose their ability to hold a full charge. There's probably no Lightning out there yet with 320,000 km/200,000 miles, but Tesla have lots of their batteries out there with mileage like that. Their study shows average 12% range loss at 200,000 miles.
Applying that to my truck, at 320,000 km it would be 15 years old, and would drive much the same, but its range would be 345 km instead of the original 390. I wouldn't be thinking about battery replacement. It would be in the work fleet by then and doing all its km around the valley, so range would be ample. Even if it had lost 50% of range it would still work in that application. Anyway my son gets to think about that one, lol.
Tesla has an impressive lifespan of batteries, with just 12% degradation after 200,000 miles, and discover the factors that influence battery capacity retention
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