Climate: LNG in B.C. vs Alberta tarsands

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Holy cow boys you've been busy today at least 3 pages I admire the passion! I better make a big post to catch up. Thank you for also pointing out why these projects are still being considered and likely built.

Unwillingness to change.

have also admitted that I'm not going to give up fishing


And basic economics;

Yea it's not that simple.... We all have only so much money to spend each year and we have to make a choice where to spend it. Me I heat my house on electricity that comes from hydro. Very little CO2 there so my first steps was energy efficiency in the house then the transportation. You know I replace our car with something that gets 4 times better fuel economy. Truck is next but it may have to wait till I get other things done. Solar panels on the next house in two years time. $1.50 per kilowatt hour for panels and the price is dropping. not including install and inverters. Last I check 10 to 12K would get you 3/4 off the grid. Pay back in 12 years. Heard China should be shipping them at .75 cents next spring. At that rate it won't be long till they get to .25 cents.

Just so we're clear we have a household that can afford new vehicles every few years, a boat, a new homes, fuel to enjoy the toys, and god knows what other luxuries and the economics still don't add up.

Not to mention you're waiting for China to drop prices so you can buy, that is so full of hilarious irony I don't even know where to start but thank you for the smiles. I think in this case though it's a matter of choices, willingness to change and priorities not economics. Could you get by and have the same enjoyable experience with a boat worth $10k less? GLG not an attack even though it really comes off like it but this scenario is far from isolated I suspect, if you actually wanted to do it you could with almost zero impact on quality of life, it is just that simple. I hear what you're saying on hydro, those projects are always well received and the public would likely love more dams. I used to feel pretty good about living in an area fed by hydro until I looked a little further into the big world. We're part of the same grid as everyone who gets their power from nuke, coal, or methane therefor every Kwh I use is one that needs to be made up somewhere/somehow else. It's all the same, you and I own a share of the emissions and waste from every source. I heat electrically too, but with the money spent in the crawl space, insulation above and beyond minimum code, a heat pump and an energuide rating of 82 I'm about $100 a month for power and heat in a 2500' house.

More thoughts on economics from AA;

I do what I can with the resources I have available, 3x5 - and what I can afford - like most everyone else


And to Seadna;


I view government as they way that we (the people) take collective action. I'm not sure why you see that as "finger pointing".

But we are the collective, who do you think it is if it isn't us? I don't understand what you're getting at if you aren't saying we need the government to get us to start making changes at home. Just like the example above there is only one person keeping you from adopting these things at home and it isn't Harper or Clark. I interpreted your posts as saying we need the government to somehow force people to make the changes. It seems like you were pointing the finger at the governments lack of action as being the problem.

The assumption came from reading things like you said here;

To my knowledge the best way for collective action to be taken is through governmental policy.

and here;

Eventually collective (read governmental) action

Another thought for GLG

Yup I'm hard on the planet but I'm part of the solution

We all have our impact, glad to see your acknowledging yours. My high horse comments came after you've (more than once) told other people that "they're the problem" as if you are somehow better.

My pals and me planted over 600 tress in the last 2 years. More to come next year. We planted a string of kelp in the ocean a couple of years ago and we plan on doing more. Will do an eel grass project in our estuary when time and funds allow. My pals and me raise Coho and clip them so that anglers have something to fish for. Caught any clipped Coho over the years up there in area 13?.... might be one of mine. Think about that....

Kudos good job, I hope I can keep a good enough job to allow me the free time later in life to participate but in the meantime I'll make my little contributions somehow.

For AA;

So - natural gas is not a "fossil fuel"? yes I am confused now. Thanks for asking.

AA this is what I was referring to when I reminded you of my occupation not the apology post, to me it reads like you think I work in Ft. Mac.

Maybe that is a defensive attitude sneaking in from feeling some personal guilt on your employment. Personally - I think your job position doesn't need defending and has nothing to do with this discussion. If we were discussing logistics and methodologies of tar sands extraction - verses the real phenomenon of global climate change - then your experience would be valuable input.

Ya gotta keep up man, at least with your own posts!

I disagree with your summary of economics, capitalism, and market adaptation driven by consumers. If we start buying solar or alternative energies and less carbon. The powers that be in the evil corporations will certainly see their profits evaporating while others increase and take the obvious steps needed to protect their interests. I hope you don't go into the conspiracy theories about the 100mpg carb that never made it to market because the evil gobbled the patents and product up so it wouldn't reach the market.

If not the other countries may not like what we, their customers, could impose on them in tariffs. We have options when dealing with China and India.

Better hope not GLG, it might not work out for your solar panels plan if they did. You may be forced to buy Canadian!

It worked out to less then 5000 km. Not bad considering the average is 20,000km/year . How about you? Still flying to work up north? That's got to be hard on your carbon footprint. Why don't you move closer to work?

I'd have to check but I'd be surprised if it was even that much, I probably put more on my 1982 Honda 70 then my tow/dump/camping rig. Once at work camp is less than 1km from my plant and a few of us ride in the same truck and make sure things are done as well as possible. The airplane thing is legit, I'd like to know what one of them burned and factor in other passengers to see what my share is. I don't live here because it's too cold, expensive, mosquito infested, limited recreation opportunities, limited education for the spawn and the fishing sucks. I wish they'd drill some wells and build some plants on the island closer to home. That would solve some carbon and pipeline problems. It would certainly reduce the need for companies like Spectra which you pointed out earlier as large emitters in our province. Man that's a pretty good idea the more I think about it, the coal beds on the Island are full of methane, heck it's right behind the CR airport. Think of how much better it would be if we produced the gas consumed on the Island right here on the Island. Some local jobs, lower net carbon footprint, I mean it sounds so good and it would go so well with the local movement that's all the rage these days. Oh wait, my bad too many NIMBYs.

In the meantime I'll just keep continuing my education and networking in hopes of landing a job at Discovery LNG when it gets going. I will continue my education unlike those that are gonna sit around crying saying the job went to someone from Alberta when they can barely spell LNG let alone operate a facility and were given all kinds of advanced notice about what's on the horizon.

Oh yeah at less than 5000kms per year tell me more about the payout of the truck upgrade on mileage alone, lets not even debate the net footprint from building a new truck and shipping components from all around the world so the factories can make big claims about domestic emissions. By my math (limited as it may be) payout is more than double what you had claimed earlier in this thread, something isn't adding up in one claim or the other.

Sad really what you post sometimes....... Admin must be busy.

And what is this supposed to mean? Don't like being reminded of what you typed, was what I said untrue? Wanna get me banned or something?


PS; sorry about using that bad word, I can't believe I tainted the pristine nature of the interwebs with such a vile word.
 
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Oh yeah on a fishing related note is everyone hoping for warm waters outside again next year so we can have another banner sockeye year?
 
No, they would not fudge temperatures..



Australian Meteorologists Caught Fudging Temperature Measurements, New Zealand too!
UPDATE: See this important New peer review paper finds no significant 20th century warming for New Zealand despite the official manipulated record.

a href="http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2014/09/23/australian-meteorologists-caught-fudging-temperature-measurements" title="By Darren Nelson">By Darren Nelson

A storm of sorts has been brewing in Australia, a tempest caused by anthropogenic global warming activism. Scientist Jennifer Marohasy and environment editor Graham Lloyd, among others have been reporting on the fact the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has been “fudging” historical temperature records to fit a warming narrative.

On her blog, Marohasy reported,"[T]emperatures have been diligently recorded at places like Bourke in outback New South Wales since 1871. Then there’s the Bureau’s official record that takes a revisionist approach: first truncating the data and then passing it through complex mathematical algorithms.”
..............
the 100-year period from January 1913 through to December last year shows a slight cooling trend of 0.35C per 100 years.

Quick OBD call the Koch Brothers at the Heartland Institute and tell them to contact IPCC and the Nobel Prize folks to let them know that they have all the proof they need that the earth is cooling not warming.... (faceplant).... such great news you found the killer proof that 99% of the thousands of science people that study climate change missed..... Who would have thought that the oil companies with their dark money that funded this "think tank" would have found the answer to our climate change problem. And the answer was as simple as they were fudging the numbers to make a cooling trend look like a warming trend. So simple that even a simpleton could see that.

One little snag with that I'm sure the Heartland denial expert should be able to explain is "what's up with that" Arctic Sea Ice. You know the death spiral..... no models no temp data that those "pesky science folks" fudge, just those observations..... got to be some explanation for that huh. Nature could not give a fudge what you or I think. She don't care where the money comes from or if you support the oil companies or have a politician in you back pocket, she is just going to tell you straight up what is real and what is a lie. The question is can you see and hear what she is telling you....
I say no summer Arctic sea Ice by 2030 maybe sooner.
asina_N_stddev_timeseries.png

Want to check out other years on this map?
Click on the year on the right hand side to plot the year(s)
go here... http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
 
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Just so we're clear we have a household that can afford new vehicles every few years, a boat, a new homes, fuel to enjoy the toys, and god knows what other luxuries and the economics still don't add up.

wrong,,,, I drive an 95 f250 and we recycled the 98 mini van when we bought the new car. I like to keep my vehicles a long time. Got me I do have a boat .. so what i'm an angler that's why i'm here. No new houses for me I buy used and fix them up over time. We will down size when the kid fledges in 2 years. Luxuries?? like home appliances ?? Yup I have had to buy those too.

Not to mention you're waiting for China to drop prices so you can buy, that is so full of hilarious irony I don't even know where to start but thank you for the smiles.

Wrong again..... I did not say I would buy from China I did say that China was pushing the prices down. The market will follow. Thats good for everyone. I'm watching prices here in BC, Ontario and the US. Things are changing fast in this industry and what irony it would be if China saved our butts.

Are you saying there is something wrong from buying from China? How about selling to China? Is one morally better than the other? Just asking.... seems to me your industry LNG plan is based on selling to China along with more coal. Could it be we better change our minds about buying China products. Myself I do like to buy local but sometimes you get no choice in the matter. If you ever looked for a new coffee pot you will know what I mean.

I think in this case though it's a matter of choices, willingness to change and priorities not economics. Could you get by and have the same enjoyable experience with a boat worth $10k less? GLG not an attack even though it really comes off like it but this scenario is far from isolated I suspect, if you actually wanted to do it you could with almost zero impact on quality of life, it is just that simple. I hear what you're saying on hydro, those projects are always well received and the public would likely love more dams. I used to feel pretty good about living in an area fed by hydro until I looked a little further into the big world. We're part of the same grid as everyone who gets their power from nuke, coal, or methane therefor every Kwh I use is one that needs to be made up somewhere/somehow else. It's all the same, you and I own a share of the emissions and waste from every source. I heat electrically too, but with the money spent in the crawl space, insulation above and beyond minimum code, a heat pump and an energuide rating of 82 I'm about $100 a month for power and heat in a 2500' house.
Can't say I disagree with what your saying. I do want to go to zero carbon but with the pressure of life and family you know what that is about. It takes time and money but I'll get there faster then most. Make a plan then work the plan and I do have a plan.

We all have our impact, glad to see your acknowledging yours. My high horse comments came after you've (more than once) told other people that "they're the problem" as if you are somehow better.

Oil & Gas, Coal and Government are the problem. since you have tied yourself to that horse you are part of it. No doubt you are a bit player but you are still a player as you have come here to support your industry and argue for more CO2 not less.

I The airplane thing is legit, I'd like to know what one of them burned and factor in other passengers to see what my share is. I don't live here because it's too cold, expensive, mosquito infested, limited recreation opportunities, limited education for the spawn and the fishing sucks. I wish they'd drill some wells and build some plants on the island closer to home. That would solve some carbon and pipeline problems. It would certainly reduce the need for companies like Spectra which you pointed out earlier as large emitters in our province. Man that's a pretty good idea the more I think about it, the coal beds on the Island are full of methane, heck it's right behind the CR airport. Think of how much better it would be if we produced the gas consumed on the Island right here on the Island. Some local jobs, lower net carbon footprint, I mean it sounds so good and it would go so well with the local movement that's all the rage these days. Oh wait, my bad too many NIMBYs.

I see.... more of the problem huh.... and you think that's a good idea... (faceplant) and you wonder why I say what i say.....

In the meantime I'll just keep continuing my education and networking in hopes of landing a job at Discovery LNG when it gets going. I will continue my education unlike those that are gonna sit around crying saying the job went to someone from Alberta when they can barely spell LNG let alone operate a facility and were given all kinds of advanced notice about what's on the horizon.

same old same old ... more carbon.... climate change light.... kick the can down the road so the problems are left to be solved by the next generation. Yup pass the costs to the next generation for our benefits now.

Oh yeah at less than 5000kms per year tell me more about the payout of the truck upgrade on mileage alone, lets not even debate the net footprint from building a new truck and shipping components from all around the world so the factories can make big claims about domestic emissions. By my math (limited as it may be) payout is more than double what you had claimed earlier in this thread, something isn't adding up in one claim or the other.
I'm pushing that decision down the road as I'm not driving that much. Would like to convert to Bio but can't find any close. Will look at one last new truck for this life if things work out but it's not that high on the list.

And what is this supposed to mean? Don't like being reminded of what you typed, was what I said untrue? Wanna get me banned or something?

Sorry I can't get you banned ... only you can do that.
Remember no personal attacks.
My Ideas are open season.
 
https://medium.com/vantage/sleeping-with-the-devil-d50eb85480d8

Sleeping With the Devil
Aaron Vincent Elkaim’s photographs document a community trading its way of life to Big Oil
Surrounded by the Athabasca tar sands of northern Alberta, the forest town of Fort Mckay is far from pretty much everything. For the small First Nation community of Cree and Dene tribes that live there though, the remove hasn’t kept things from getting crowded.
 
Holy cow boys you've been busy today at least 3 pages I admire the passion! I better make a big post to catch up. Thank you for also pointing out why these projects are still being considered and likely built.

Unwillingness to change.
So now I not only have to be holy but I have to give up fishing also? ;) But seriously, there isn't an unwillingness to change. I have already made changes and will continue to make changes to reduce my own carbon footprint. As I said above, my own little contribution could be completely zero and it still wouldn't have much impact on the bigger problem. But apparently, by your logic, I'm only allowed to be concerned about how we (me + others) treat the planet when I'm perfect.


And basic economics;



Just so we're clear we have a household that can afford new vehicles every few years, a boat, a new homes, fuel to enjoy the toys, and god knows what other luxuries and the economics still don't add up.

Not to mention you're waiting for China to drop prices so you can buy, that is so full of hilarious irony I don't even know where to start but thank you for the smiles. I think in this case though it's a matter of choices, willingness to change and priorities not economics. Could you get by and have the same enjoyable experience with a boat worth $10k less? GLG not an attack even though it really comes off like it but this scenario is far from isolated I suspect, if you actually wanted to do it you could with almost zero impact on quality of life, it is just that simple. I hear what you're saying on hydro, those projects are always well received and the public would likely love more dams. I used to feel pretty good about living in an area fed by hydro until I looked a little further into the big world. We're part of the same grid as everyone who gets their power from nuke, coal, or methane therefor every Kwh I use is one that needs to be made up somewhere/somehow else. It's all the same, you and I own a share of the emissions and waste from every source. I heat electrically too, but with the money spent in the crawl space, insulation above and beyond minimum code, a heat pump and an energuide rating of 82 I'm about $100 a month for power and heat in a 2500' house.

More thoughts on economics from AA;




And to Seadna;




But we are the collective, who do you think it is if it isn't us? I don't understand what you're getting at if you aren't saying we need the government to get us to start making changes at home. Just like the example above there is only one person keeping you from adopting these things at home and it isn't Harper or Clark. I interpreted your posts as saying we need the government to somehow force people to make the changes. It seems like you were pointing the finger at the governments lack of action as being the problem.

The assumption came from reading things like you said here;



and here;
Again, apparently I'm not allowed to be concerned until I'm perfect. But let me be more concrete about this. Government can and has "forced people to make changes" and in many cases that is for the better. A good example of this is the CAFE standards for fleet fuel efficiency in the U.S. (and the related CAFC standard in Canada). Those standards have gone a large way to force (in the US) manufacturers to improve fuel economy in the vehicles they sell and I would claim we are better off for that (both in terms of the environment and in other areas such as the economy and a lower dependence on foreign). I personally don't think that was a terrible thing for government to do. It spreads the cost out amongst us all (at least everyone who purchases a car) and it improves to overall state for all of us. Another example is continued investment in infrastructure and technology for solar and batteries etc. Without continued governmental investment in research and in some cases business through direct $'s and tax credits, these technologies would likely not be as far along nor as attractive economically. Of course, here in the PacNW, solar still cannot compete effectively with other power sources (with the exception of the dry, sunny areas east of the mountains). But the price of solar continues to come down and is predicted to be cost competitive with other sources of electricity in 36 of the U.S. states by 2016 (Wash., Oregon and Alaska are not in the list of 36 for obvious reasons - see this article in Bloomberg ). So here's another example where governmental policy and subsidies (which we all pay for through taxes) have made an impact and have helped increase the market size here. To BE CLEAR, I already said I don't expect fossil fuels to go away anytime soon. What I DO WISH FOR is a collective effort to reduce their use over time. That is absolutely achievable in the industrialized nations if we chose to make that a goal.

There are many, many things government can do in this regard that individuals cannot. Government can fund infrastructure projects that make it more feasible to obtain power from solar, wind etc. Government can quit subsidizing fossil fuel production and shift all of those subsidies to renewables (in the US we subsidize fossil fuel production to a much greater extent than renewables). Government can improve the public transportation systems in cities to increase capacity and ease of use (as someone who takes the bus quite often, I can tell you there I some times I must drive due to work and/or personal schedules that are incompatible with bus schedules). Government can create/improve/encourage/subsidize infrastructure to better distribute and store renewable sources of energy. Government can implement policies through which the full costs of carbon based fulls are actually passed directly onto the consumer - by full costs I mean the cost of pollution which are currently borne equally amongst the entire population independent of one's own fuel use. That's what carbon credits/offsets and trading in that market are designed to do. I suspect the idea you like the least is this latter one as it does "force" people to pay more. However, it also benefits those who use little power as they are exposed less to negative impacts of the carbon uses of others. There are many other examples of similar government action that have forced changes on industry to protect others who only bore the impacts but not the economic benefits of a given industrial process. In fact most of our current environmental regulations are based on just this premise - e.g. some are not allowed to screw up the environment at the expense of others. So yes, I'd like to government apply this same principle to fossil fuels AND YES I recognize that such changes must be phased in gradually. What I find problematic is a refusal to do anything different that what we are doing now. To borrow a term from you an "unwillingness to change".;)
Another thought for GLG



We all have our impact, glad to see your acknowledging yours. My high horse comments came after you've (more than once) told other people that "they're the problem" as if you are somehow better.

I think I, AA and GLG would all admit that we are all part of the problem. But I would claim that those who want no changes to the current status quo may be a bigger problem than those who recognize that changes must occur AND who are willing to contribute to (not bear the complete brunt of) the solution. You seem to think that we can't be concerned or vocal until we're perfect in every way in our own regard. To me, that's just a foolish way to frame things. We all need to work together to reduce our individual and collective carbon footprints.

Kudos good job, I hope I can keep a good enough job to allow me the free time later in life to participate but in the meantime I'll make my little contributions somehow.

{stuff clipped due to post length limitations}

I think we'd all be better off if we didn't spend our time worrying about which one (if any of us) is holier than thou when it comes to our own carbon footprints. Some will be doing a lot in this regard and some likely won't give a darn. It's because of this distribution of different levels of empathy/caring that we need collective effort to move the center of the distribution to a better state.
 
http://thetyee.ca/News/2014/10/31/D...ce=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=311014


'Difficult' Oil Faces Difficult Future, Predict New Reports
Why the forecast for extreme hydrocarbons may be shorter than advertised.
By Andrew Nikiforuk, Today, TheTyee.ca
Share article via email Print this article
Shale canola
Energy analyst David Hughes says that US tight oil production will likely average 73,000 barrels a day by 2040, and not the million barrels now optimistically predicted by government forecasters. Shale photo via Shutterstock.

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More troubles for BC's big LNG plans
Read more: Energy, Environment
Two new reports on tight oil, or "difficult" oil extracted by fracking and horizontal drilling, and bitumen mining in North America strip away the marketing hype on extreme hydrocarbons and conclude that their futures may be volatile and shorter than advertised.

"Drilling Deeper," a massive, 300-page report by energy analyst and B.C. resident David Hughes, finds the boom in tight oil and shale gas plays in the United States will not last long, nor deliver energy independence to that country.

Using real well data, Hughes, one of the continent's most highly cited energy thinkers as a fellow of the Post Carbon Institute and author of several high profile studies, estimates that U.S. tight oil production from seven plays such as the Bakken and Eagle Ford will peak by 2020 and never attain production targets forecasted by government agencies, such as the Energy Information Administration.

Tight oil, also known as shale oil, is an extreme hydrocarbon that comes from deep shale rock formations as hard as granite. These formations require extensive blasting or fracking with highly pressurized volumes of sand, water and chemicals in order to force the oil to flow. In contrast, most conventional oil comes from formations as porous or permeable as volcanic pumice.

Due to average three-year decline rates that range between 60 and 90 per cent, Hughes found that U.S. tight oil production will likely average 73,000 barrels a day by 2040 and not the million barrels now optimistically predicted by government forecasters.

Due to rapid depletion rates, Hughes found a similar scenario for shale gas that also requires hydraulic fracturing. It's a costly brute force technology that blasts apart deep rock formations with water, chemicals and sand.



"The analysis shows that simply maintaining U.S. shale gas production in the medium term -- let alone increasing production at rates forecast by the Energy Information Administration through 2040 will be problematic," he writes.

To support government forecasts, the oil and gas industry would have to invest $910 billion by 2040 and drill another 130,000 wells.

False promises hurt renewables

Moreover, Hughes found that real well data contradicts industry and government claims that high quality shale plays are ubiquitous, that technological advances in hydraulic fracturing can overcome the reality of rapid depletion rates, and that large estimated reserves can somehow justify high extraction rates.

"Actual production data from the past decade of shale gas and tight oil clearly do not support these assumptions," adds Hughes.

False promises surrounding these extreme hydrocarbons has led to a tempering of investments in renewable energy along with truncated public policy on climate change, explains the energy analyst.

The report calls into question "plans for [liquefied natural gas] and crude oil exports and the benefits of the shale boom in light of the amount of drilling and capital investment that would be required, along with the environmental and health impacts associated with it."

Hughes advises that governments "harness this temporary fossil fuel bounty to quickly develop a truly sustainable energy policy -- one that is based on conservation, efficiency, and a rapid transition to distributed renewable energy production."

Oilsands show 'financial weakness': report

Another report from Oil Change International, a U.S. organization devoted to calculating the true cost of fossil fuels, and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis also offers a cautionary analysis on bitumen production from the oilsands, which now sits at two million barrels a day.

It notes that capital expenditures in the mining project are declining and that oilsands extractors are under-performing in the stock market. In addition, many analysts have downgraded the outlook for the massive mining project due to pipeline blockades, rising costs and growing carbon liabilities.

The HSCB Bank, for example, now rates bitumen as a high-risk investment given its high carbon footprint, which is 17 per cent greater than conventional oil. In a carbon-constrained world, the bank predicts "capital-intensive, high-cost projects, such as heavy oil and oilsands, are most at risk."

"Delays and cancellations have exposed the fact that tarsands investments, once thought to be highly lucrative, are showing signs of financial weakness," adds the Oil Change International report.

In the last year, industry has cancelled three major multibillion-dollar projects: Shell's Pierre River, Total's Joslyn North and Statoil's Corner Project. The three projects would have produced 4.7 billion barrels of bitumen equal to the pollution of 735 coal plants in one year, or 2.8 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide.

The report adds that "public accountability campaigns against tarsands production and tarsands pipelines have swayed public opinion at a time when economic forces are pressuring the viability of tarsands investments."

Nevertheless, discounted Canadian crude exports to the U.S. continue to rise and seize greater market share in North America.

ARC Financial Corp, a Calgary-based private equity investor, recently reported that "Canadian oil exports to U.S. refineries have grown to record volumes, at a record pace, coincident with discounted oil prices that started around 2010."

In the last year, Alberta crude oil sold on average between 15 to 20 per cent under the price of international crude oil delivered to North America. [Tyee]

Read more: Energy, Environment

Andrew Nikiforuk is an award-winning journalist who has been writing about the energy industry for two decades and is a contributing editor to The Tyee. Find his previous stories here.

This coverage of Canadian national issues is made possible because of generous financial support from our Tyee Builders.
 
http://www.postcarbon.org/publications/drillingdeeper/

Drilling Deeper
David Hughes
October 27, 2014

Abstract
Drilling Deeper reviews the twelve shale plays that account for 82% of the tight oil production and 88% of the shale gas production in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) reference case forecasts through 2040. It utilizes all available production data for the plays analyzed, and assesses historical production, well- and field-decline rates, available drilling locations, and well-quality trends for each play, as well as counties within plays. Projections of future production rates are then made based on forecast drilling rates (and, by implication, capital expenditures). Tight oil (shale oil) and shale gas production is found to be unsustainable in the medium- and longer-term at the rates forecast by the EIA, which are extremely optimistic.

This report finds that tight oil production from major plays will peak before 2020. Barring major new discoveries on the scale of the Bakken or Eagle Ford, production will be far below the EIA’s forecast by 2040. Tight oil production from the two top plays, the Bakken and Eagle Ford, will underperform the EIA’s reference case oil recovery by 28% from 2013 to 2040, and more of this production will be front-loaded than the EIA estimates. By 2040, production rates from the Bakken and Eagle Ford will be less than a tenth of that projected by the EIA. Tight oil production forecast by the EIA from plays other than the Bakken and Eagle Ford is in most cases highly optimistic and unlikely to be realized at the medium- and long-term rates projected.

Shale gas production from the top seven plays will also likely peak before 2020. Barring major new discoveries on the scale of the Marcellus, production will be far below the EIA’s forecast by 2040. Shale gas production from the top seven plays will underperform the EIA’s reference case forecast by 39% from 2014 to 2040, and more of this production will be front-loaded than the EIA estimates. By 2040, production rates from these plays will be about one-third that of the EIA forecast. Production from shale gas plays other than the top seven will need to be four times that estimated by the EIA in order to meet its reference case forecast.

Over the short term, U.S. production of both shale gas and tight oil is projected to be robust-but a thorough review of production data from the major plays indicates that this will not be sustainable in the long term. These findings have clear implications for medium and long term supply, and hence current domestic and foreign policy discussions, which generally assume decades of U.S. oil and gas abundance.
 
http://priceofoil.org/2014/10/29/ma...ountability-is-slowing-tar-sands-development/

Material Risks: How Public Accountability Is Slowing Tar Sands Development

Hannah McKinnon, October 29, 2014
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Screen Shot 2014-10-29 at 1.02.00 AMOil Change International, October 2014

Download Full Report

A new report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and Oil Change International quantifies for the first time the financial and carbon impact of public opposition to pipelines and other expanded investment in tar sands production.

The report, “Material Risks: How Public Accountability Is Slowing Tar Sands Development,” presents market analysis and industry data to support its estimates on lost sales revenue to the tar sands industry as public opposition creates delays and project cancellations. The report also describes other market forces that are putting tar sand developers at a growing disadvantage.

The report puts tar sands development lost revenue at $30.9 billion from 2010 through 2013, in part due to the changing North American oil market but largely because of a fierce grassroots movement against tar sands development. The report attributes 55% of the lost revenue, or $17 billion, to the diverse citizen protests against pipelines and the tar sands.

A significant segment of opposition, the report notes, is from First Nations in Canada who are raising sovereignty claims and other environmental challenges.

Among the report’s findings:

Market forces and public opposition have played a significant role in the cancellation of three major tar sands projects in 2014 alone: Shell’s Pierre River, Total’s Joslyn North, and Statoil’s Corner Project. Combined, these projects would have produced 4.7 billion barrels of bitumen that would in turn have released 2.8 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. This is equivalent to the emissions of building 18 new coal plants that would last 40 years each.
Tar sands producers lost $30.9 billion from 2010 through 2013 due to transportation bottlenecks and the flood of crude coming from shale-oil fields. Of that, $17.1 billion, or 55 percent, can be attributed to the impact of public-accountability campaigns.
The combination of risks facing the industry has the potential for canceling most or even all of the planned expansion of the industry in Canada.
Rather than seeing more than a doubling of output from 2 million barrels of oil per day to 4.8 million barrels per days — as the industry predicts — the report projects flat production levels.
Tar sands producers have lagged, with 9 of 10 leading tar sands producers in Canada underperforming the broader stock market in the last five years.
Analysts have recently downgraded their outlook for tar sands production.

The report also explores how smaller tar sands producers are having trouble accessing capital markets, how the industry is increasing capital spending even as it faces declining cash flows, weak revenue expectations, rising production costs and tight margins.

___________________________

The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), based in Cleveland, Ohio, conducts research and analyses on financial and economic issues related to energy and the environment. The Institute’s mission is to accelerate the transition to a diverse, sustainable and profitable energy economy and to reduce dependence on coal and other non-renewable energy resources. For more information, visit www.ieefa.org.

Oil Change International is a research, communications, and advocacy organization focused on exposing the true costs of fossil fuels and facilitating the coming transition towards clean energy. Oil Change works to achieve its mission by producing strategic research and hard-hitting investigations; engaging in domestic and international policy and media spaces; and providing leadership in organizing resistance to the political influence of the fossil fuel industry. For more information, visit priceofoil.org.

Download Full Report http://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2014/10/IEEFA.OCI_.Material-Risks-FINweb2-1.pdf
 
Minnesota ABC News affiliate KSTP: “A legendary astronaut touched down tonight in the Twin Cities. Walter Cunningham is here tonight to bring his insight into the climate change debate.”

“On Apollo VII in 1968 Astronaut Walt Cunningham viewed the world from a perspective few ever will.”

Walt Cunningham addressed a CFACT Collegians event at the University of Minnesota where he was interviewed by ABC.

Col. Cunningham: “Models are not data… I’m here to encourage everyone to look at the data themselves, not just buy what they’re told. I find that my standards for science are more important to me than anything else, and I hate to see them being depreciated by the alarmists’ claims today. Politics and the media and what have you have allowed us now to be facing one of the biggest scientific hoaxes in history. That’s what’s being pushed on us.”

Apollo VII was the first manned American mission in space after the tragic fire claimed the lives of all three Apollo I astronauts.

Walt Cunningham was the featured member of CFACT’s delegation to COP 19, the UN conference on Climate Change in Warsaw, Poland. Walt and his wife Dot plan to join CFACT for COP 20 in Lima, Peru in December.

- See more at: http://www.cfact.org/2014/10/31/wat...am-blast-global-warming/#sthash.jyHAcPhU.dpuf
 
Hard-Nosed Advice From Veteran Lobbyist: ‘Win Ugly or Lose Pretty’

Richard Berman Energy Industry Talk Secretly Taped
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Richard Berman, a political consultant, said oil and gas industry officials need to exploit emotions like fear and turn them against environmental groups. “Think of this as an endless war,” he told executives in a speech that was secretly recorded.
Credit Daniel Rosenbaum for The New York Times

WASHINGTON — If the oil and gas industry wants to prevent its opponents from slowing its efforts to drill in more places, it must be prepared to employ tactics like digging up embarrassing tidbits about environmentalists and liberal celebrities, a veteran Washington political consultant told a room full of industry executives in a speech that was secretly recorded.
The blunt advice from the consultant, Richard Berman, the founder and chief executive of the Washington-based Berman & Company consulting firm, came as Mr. Berman solicited up to $3 million from oil and gas industry executives to finance an advertising and public relations campaign called Big Green Radicals.
The company executives, Mr. Berman said in his speech, must be willing to exploit emotions like fear, greed and anger and turn them against the environmental groups. And major corporations secretly financing such a campaign should not worry about offending the general public because “you can either win ugly or lose pretty,” he said.

“Think of this as an endless war,” Mr. Berman told the crowd at the June event in Colorado Springs, sponsored by the Western Energy Alliance, a group whose members include Devon Energy, Halliburton and Anadarko Petroleum, which specialize in extracting oil and gas through hydraulic fracturing, also known as fracking. “And you have to budget for it.”
What Mr. Berman did not know — and what could now complicate his task of marginalizing environmental groups that want to impose limits on fracking — is that one of the energy industry executives recorded his remarks and was offended by them.
“That you have to play dirty to win,” said the executive, who provided a copy of the recording and the meeting agenda to The New York Times under the condition that his identity not be revealed. “It just left a bad taste in my mouth.”
Mr. Berman had flown to Colorado with Jack Hubbard, a vice president at Berman & Company, to discuss their newest public relations campaign, Big Green Radicals, which has already placed a series of intentionally controversial advertisements in Pennsylvania and Colorado, two states where the debate over fracking has been intense. It has also paid to place the media campaign on websites serving national and Washington audiences.
A spokeswoman for Mr. Berman confirmed that he gave the speech, but said he would have no comment on its contents.
Mr. Berman is well known in Washington for his technique of creating nonprofit groups like the Center for Consumer Freedom that secretly collect corporate donations to finance the aggressive, often satirical media campaigns his team conceives. They are intended to undermine his opponents, like labor unions or animal rights groups that have tried to spotlight the treatment of animals at meatpacking plants.
“I get up every morning and I try to figure out how to screw with the labor unions — that’s my offense,” Mr. Berman said in his speech to the Western Energy Alliance. “I am just trying to figure out how I am going to reduce their brand.”
Continue reading the main story
Mr. Berman offered several pointers from his playbook.
“If you want a video to go viral, have kids or animals,” he said, and then he showed a spot his company had prepared using schoolchildren as participants in a mock union election — to suggest that union bosses do not have real elections.
“Use humor to minimize or marginalize the people on the other side,” he added.
“There is nothing the public likes more than tearing down celebrities and playing up the hypocrisy angle,” his colleague Mr. Hubbard said, citing billboard advertisements planned for Pennsylvania that featured Robert Redford. “Demands green living,” they read. “Flies on private jets.”
Mr. Hubbard also discussed how he had done detailed research on the personal histories of members of the boards of the Sierra Club and the Natural Resources Defense Council to try to find information that could be used to embarrass them.

But the speech, given in June at the Broadmoor Hotel and Resort, where the Western Energy Alliance held its 2014 annual meeting, could end up bringing a new round of scrutiny to Mr. Berman and the vast network of nonprofit groups and think tanks he runs out of his downtown Washington office.
Mr. Berman repeatedly boasted about how he could take checks from the oil and gas industry executives — he said he had already collected six-figure contributions from some of the executives in the room — and then hide their role in funding his campaigns.
“People always ask me one question all the time: ‘How do I know that I won’t be found out as a supporter of what you’re doing?’ ” Mr. Berman told the crowd. “We run all of this stuff through nonprofit organizations that are insulated from having to disclose donors. There is total anonymity. People don’t know who supports us.”
What is unclear is if the hardball tactics that Mr. Berman has pitched will succeed in places like Colorado. Already, The Denver Post editorial page, generally supportive of the oil and gas industry, has criticized Mr. Berman’s tactics, calling one video spot — featuring fictitious environmentalists who debate if the moon is made of cheese before calling for a ban on fracking — “a cheap shot at fracking foes.”
In fact, at least one of the major oil and gas companies that had executives at the event — Anadarko, a Texas-based company that operates 13,000 wells in the Rocky Mountain region — now says that it did not agree with the suggestions that Mr. Berman offered on how to combat criticism of oil and gas drilling techniques.
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“Anadarko did not support Mr. Berman’s approach and did not to participate in his work because it does not align with our values,” John Christiansen, a company spokesman, said.
Mr. Berman probably appreciates the criticism. As he explained in his remarks, what matters is increasing the number of people who see his work, which is part of the reason he intentionally tries to offend people in his media campaigns.
“They characterize us in a campaign as being the guys with the black helicopters,” he explained. “And to some degree, that’s true. We’re doing stuff to diminish the other sides’ ability to operate.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/u...estern-energy-alliance-speech-taped.html?_r=3
 
MOSCOW — Russia has warned that it will revive its claim to a huge swathe of the Arctic in the hope that it can secure the rights to billions of tons of oil and gas.

Moscow has long seen the seabed off its northern coastline as a mine of valuable hydrocarbons and is keen to fend off rival bids for control over the region’s resources.

Sergei Donskoy, the minister for natural resources, said Russia had completed research on its submission to the United Nations, under which it hopes to gain an extra 740,000 kilometres. “That is a big increase to the country’s territory, that’s why we call this application an application for the future – an application for the future sustainable development of our country,” said Mr. Donskoy after greeting scientists returning home this week from the Arctic to St Petersburg on the Akademik Fedorov research ship.

Mr. Donskoy said Russia’s application, which could net it at least five billion tons of hitherto unexploited oil and gas reserves, would be submitted to the UN in the spring.

The announcement came as the Kremlin increases its military presence in the far north. Russia’s defence ministry said on Tuesday that it was going to build 13 new military airfields and 10 radar stations in the Arctic in case of “unwelcome guests”.

Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, told his security council in April that the Arctic was “a sphere of our special interest”.

Under the UN convention on the law of the sea, the five states with territory inside the Arctic Circle – Canada, Norway, Russia, the US and Denmark, via its control of Greenland – have economic rights over a 200-mile zone around the north of their coastline.

However, the convention is open to appeal and several countries are disputing the limits of the zone.

Russia believes its shelf is directly linked to the Lomonosov ridge, an underwater mountain crest that runs 1,240 miles across the polar region. A similar claim is being made about the Mendeleyev ridge, which also strikes out from Siberia toward the North Pole.

Moscow submitted research findings to the UN in 2001 to the effect that the ridges were a “natural prolongation” of Russia, but they were rejected, and it has been gathering data for a new application since.

In 2007, Russian scientists tried to beef up their claims by diving to the seabed under the North Pole and planting a titanium Russian flag. That prompted ridicule from some quarters, with Peter MacKay, Canada’s then foreign minister, comparing it to a 15th century colonial land-grab.

Canada also calls the Lomonosov ridge its own and is expected to lay claim to the North Pole itself in a forthcoming application to the UN. Denmark thinks the ridge is part of Greenland.
 
Ok GLG my bad on the new vehicle assumption. I made it based on the way you tout the economic and environmental benefits of trading up every few years, with how you say you feel about it I thought it was only natural you'd live your life that way. On the next one have you considered CNG or propane? Driving is a necessity, you could make it as benign as possible and save a few bucks as you did it. If you're driving that little then there's zero economic or environmental upside to upgrading, buy solar panels instead. To go for that Ram Eco Diesel you talked about the differnce would cost you enough to set up your house and keep fuel in the 95 for the next decade. Of course one can always make the purchase for emotional reasons alone and it's not wrong.

Home appliances, come on really? How about dinners out, vacations (I'm sure you'll just say it's been dozens of years since you've taken one) or any other non essential purchases.

As for my comments about drilling behind the airport I really didn't expect you to bite. It was pure sarcasm trying to make a point about society in general and the view of industry as was most of my post. This isn't good enough, that's not good enough but let's gobble it up, why should I change I'm just one person. I thought that was gonna come through pretty obviously in the post. It's not unique to energy, people want to be able to buy fresh wild fish at the grocery store but look out if the commercial boats are in "their" fishing area "destroying" the stocks. We all need lumber and paper but look out if they can see the clear cut or a mill gets built nearby. My frustration from this mentality is what I was trying to convey. Classic nimbyism.

I like your term carbon light it's a good one, it's a good alternative for the other 7 billion people that like you Seadna and I aren't ready to go cold turkey and give it all up. It's a viable alternative in transition times, what are the better options? Like I said you and the other 2 of us in this conversation could be off the grid in a couple months if it was truly what we wanted but it isn't so fossil fuel extraction will go on. We do our little parts and say that's good enough when we feel it is. When I say we I mean everyone, we all have some rationalization for the consumption in our minds. I'm not judging, I'm just saying.

Seadna, sure your individual part may be small so is mine and everyone else's, but multiply it by 7 billion. Change starts at home, you guys are well on your way if everything said is true. I was just using your commitment to fishing and burning the fuel as an example, there's nothing wrong in my mind with wanting to keep your boat, again not judging just saying. Fishing is one of my hobbies but the main one is motorcycles, no matter what fuel costs I'll still ride.

I've lost track of how many times I've clarified my position in this thread but I'll do it again, I enjoy playing devils advocate so maybe it gets cloudy but anyone paying attention would get it by now. I believe in climate change, the only debate is how much is part of the cycle and how much is man made. I've said that word for word in this thread. More carbon so obviously isn't the answer. This is a necessary evil, it's the best of the fossil fuels (remember the link comparing it to coal you posted GLG?), more carbon isn't what we need but with a growing population and growing demand from people just like you 2 and myself how does this not make sense? You guys have parts of your lifestyle that need fossil fuels that you aren't gonna compromise on so does everyone else. If Asia or even North America can't get it as an energy source they're gonna go coal. So lets scrap the gas industry and carry on with coal and oil sand extraction until society is ready for the renewable alternatives, is that what you want? Would it make you happy to see it dry up?

As for China, yeah the moral dilemmas are as obvious as climate change to most in society. I think one could make a valid argument for selling them a cleaner alternative than coal and oil sand product though. They're gonna do what they're gonna do no matter what so why not do it the best way currently possible? Those Chinese made solar panels could have a much lower lifecycle footprint, imagine them built using gas and shipped back on an LNG powered container ship instead of black smoke belching Bunker C. At the very least the imported components for the domestically produced ones could come the same way if the ships could top the tanks up here before the return trip.

It comes across like I'm blasting you two but I'm just using you guys as an example because we're having this conversation. You're (we're) not unique in any way in our mindsets.

Last question on this topic and then you can have the last word; What did the admin comment mean?

I said in the past nothing good comes from typing crap in this thread but that could be wrong. People love a train wreck so I suspect there's some checking in and reading this just to watch these exchanges! Maybe they'll read and think about some of the other material too.
 
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http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2014/11/0...ce=daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=011114

I Was a Climate Change Denier

After years trapped in a 'skeptic' loop, my path to evidence-based freedom.

By Kasra Hassani, Today, TheTyee.ca


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Denier


It took years to go from 'it's all a conspiracy' to 'tear down the wall.' Sand photo via Shutterstock.



Related


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This Is How You Fuel a Community of Climate Deniers

Start with big oil companies, and the money and connections flow.


The Global Warming Denial Lobby

The people out to 'poison the debate on climate change.'

Read more: Energy, Science + Tech, Environment,

[Editor's note: This story first appeared on ScienceWriters.ca. The Tyee republishes it here with permission.]

I, a scientist with a PhD in microbiology and immunology, was a climate change denier. Wait, let me add, I was an effective climate change denier: I would throw on a cloak of anecdotal evidence, biased one-sided skepticism and declare myself a skeptic. Good scientists are skeptics, right? I sallied forth and denied every piece of evidence that was presented to me for a relatively long time.

It feels strange when I look back -- I inadvertently fell into almost every pitfall of pseudoscience, shutting my eyes and repeating a series of mantras, such as "I don't believe it!" "Why does it even matter?" and "I don't care!"

Thankfully, those days are over, but the memories linger. Although the evolution of my thought -- from ignorance, to denial, to skepticism and finally to acceptance -- was a continuum. In retrospect, I can distinguish certain phases that are worth listing and discussing. I hope my experience encourages others to loosen up some strongly held beliefs and listen to the din of evidence.

Here are the prominent phases of my climate change denial:

The 'We have bigger problems' phase

Being a biology and ecology geek in high school, my mind nurtured environmental concerns, especially in my birth country of Iran where air and environment pollution, uncontrolled hunting, deforestation and desert formation are rampant. When I first heard about climate change through media (nothing had been taught in school), I couldn't help but see it as a distraction from more immediate issues -- poverty, childhood mortality, wars and conflicts, pollution, and so on.








It bothered me to think of countries coming together over such a hypothetical long-term effect while children die of preventable causes. This phase slowly transformed into…

The 'It's all a conspiracy!' phase

The conspiracist in me intensified after I read the novel State of Fear by Michael Crichton, a science-fiction author of Jurassic Park and The Lost World whom I adored during my teenage years. State of Fear had a very science-y look with references, graphs, arguments and counter-arguments. Its thesis was that the media exploited global warming to keep us in a state of fear and guilt over the very act of being human. And then, I moved into…

The 'OK, it may be happening, but who knows if it's our fault' phase

As time went on, I was exposed to more and more evidence in support of climate change that I could no longer deny. I had no choice but to adapt my theory and finally admit to some sort of climate change. "OK, it may be happening, but how can you tell if it's our fault? We lack a control Earth!"

To back myself up, I clung to a variety of fringe arguments: "It's the sun!" or "We can't trust the measurements!" or "It has happened before! It's normal!" and so on. (You can find a long list of common climate change myths debunked here and a shorter version here. Right now the list counts up to 176. New ones are added often.)

Some studies have suggested that people who believe in one conspiracy theory often believe others as well, even if they contradict one another. This is usually because the conspiracy theory needs to be strengthened in the face of every new piece of contradictory evidence. Once you fall into the trap of believing that a huge sinister organization can perform an action so perfectly-yet-covertly, you tend to believe other conspiracies are plausible.

Thankfully, I avoided the meta-conspiracist delusions. During these years, I actively discussed and argued with other conspiracy theorists and deniers, especially on biology and health-related issues such as evolution, immunization and genetic engineering. Still, I kept adapting my own denial strategy, eventually leading to….

The 'It's not that important' phase

This became a recurring thought supplied by my lack of knowledge and failure to see the impact that climate change has on the environment. I kept referring to other pressing and more tangible global issues. I was blind to how the pressing environmental concerns of today -- energy, water, pollution, sustainability -- were actually in harmony with actions needed to fight climate change. This can be clearly seen in United Nations' new sustainable development goals and their special focus on climate change.

Finally, I crawled into…

The 'Maybe I'm a denier' phase

No singular bit of evidence unequivocally proved to me that humans were responsible for climate change, which makes sense if you're a science nut like me. Science works on multiple proofs. One experiment or piece of evidence supports a theory, it doesn’t prove anything.

Over time, as different researchers gather more evidence, a theory becomes refined and a more acceptable explanation for natural phenomena. It also took time because I was never astonished by a piece of evidence or a big news story; when you are in denial, evidence is unlikely to change your mind. On the contrary, it might persuade you to cover your ears and pretend you're not listening. Believe it or not, there exists a "Flat Earth Society," and no, I won't link to it.

So what happened to me then? What was the revelation? How did I enter…

The 'Tear down the conspiracy wall!' phase

I began to actively pursue knowledge on how to discuss climate change with conspiracy theorists (the ones who believe in conspiracies in principle and therefore are more likely to be climate change deniers) and I realized my strong-held beliefs and stubbornness matched the same criteria as the people I was trying to convince. I was a denier myself.

I created a list of every question and doubt I had about the physics, chemistry, biology, economics and politics of climate change, and I started reading. I took online courses. I listened to podcasts. Every myth in my head popped and floated away. I learned that cosmic rays cannot account for the current patterns of climate change; that low and middle-income countries and their fragile economies are actually more vulnerable to climate change than high-income countries and should care more about it; that climate change could be accelerating desert formation; and finally, that pushing for renewable energies and sustainable development is in harmony with combating climate change.

It all made sense without the need for an Evil Monster Corporation hiding a big truth or pushing a secret agenda. I was conspiracy-free!

Bottom line

No human is free of bias. There could be certain social, political and even personal circumstances that would stiffen a thought or belief in one's mind. It takes effort try to identify our biases and rid ourselves of them, or at least be conscious of them. But it's definitely worth it.
 
Ok GLG my bad on the new vehicle assumption. I made it based on the way you tout the economic and environmental benefits of trading up every few years, with how you say you feel about it I thought it was only natural you'd live your life that way. On the next one have you considered CNG or propane? Driving is a necessity, you could make it as benign as possible and save a few bucks as you did it. If you're driving that little then there's zero economic or environmental upside to upgrading, buy solar panels instead. To go for that Ram Eco Diesel you talked about the differnce would cost you enough to set up your house and keep fuel in the 95 for the next decade. Of course one can always make the purchase for emotional reasons alone and it's not wrong.

Home appliances, come on really? How about dinners out, vacations (I'm sure you'll just say it's been dozens of years since you've taken one) or any other non essential purchases.

Wrong again ...... do keep up.....
I have corrected you 2 times on this.
This is what I said....
Post # 222

Transportation
Need a new car? Why not consider one that gets 20-25% or better fuel mileage.
Consider public transportation if that is a option for you.
Drive less and plan your trips so that you get more done each trip.
Keep your tires at proper inflation.
Learn the driving tips to save fuel (light acceleration and speed limits)
What am I doing?
New car for the wife that get's better then 4l per 100 km, that's 3 times better then her old one.
Me .... looking right now at new truck to haul the boat - Dodge 1500 eco-diesel around 10l per 100 km city / 7l per 100 km hyway. Till them I'm driving less or using the wife's car.

The next 2 post is what I said to correct your assumptions......
Post # 245
Replace your vehicle when it is due with one that uses less fuel. Over the life of the asset you will have a pay back within 3 to 5 years. Yes a new vehicle takes energy to produce but things have changed. Look at Ford and their commitment to reducing GHG.

and again here because you did not seem to understand.

Posr # 253
I'm confident that vehicles will work out in the end as new standards are on the correct track to lower emissions. No it makes no sense to replace a three year old truck unless you have the need or want to get something better. Average time that people keep their vehicle is 8 years. New regulations on cars and trucks are kicking in and consumption is going down as it should.

You asked about propane or cng
I drove a propane truck back in the 90's. I built it from the frame up with a 1952 GMC body. Wonderful truck but my needs and wants changed so that's why I have what I have now.

Not sure if my current truck will last into the next decade as it's getting long in the tooth and my next truck will most likely be my last. May wait until 2017 but I have not made up my mind yet.

Your question about dinners out.... not many but I do try to take my lady out every so often... she deserves it. We don't go out that much maybe once every couple months. We enjoy staying at home.

Your question about vacations...... I'm semi retired so I'm on vacation most of the time but I stay close to home. My wife does take the kid on vacation and uses the train. We gave up on airplanes many years ago. That's not to say that we have not used them as a couple of years ago we had a death in the family that I need to fly out immediately. Next summer we will drive back east (Sask) for a meeting of the clan.

Non essential purchases - not sure but yea like an I-pod for the kid... guilty.... Christmas presents - yup guilty ....

Yes I can talk about climate change and yes I still use products that contribute to CO2 levels increasing. The key here is to use less and do what you can to reduce CO2. As you may have noticed there are many out there that refuse to accept the facts about the problem. My goal is to inform and shine a light on the subject. Counter the pollution in the public square with the best information that I can find. Am I 100% perfect? No...... But using your logic then only people that do not drink can talk about drinking issues. Say alcoholism or abuse. Perhaps only people that do not own guns can talk about gun laws. You see your logic may need some adjustments.
 
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3X5..... Have at her with LNG if you can be zero CO2 from well to wheels. That's not the plan as the LNG industry has laid it out. That industry want's to expand and that will make our CO2 go up. Fossil fuel needs to scale back not increase. No coal production increase, no oil production increase...... In fact we need carbon sequestration for the current levels of production. We need to build this out as fast as possible. You may think there is time but others that study this problem would disagree. I'm with them. You may try to justify expansion however you want but the bottom line is we are at 400 ppm CO2 when we should be at 280. It's not going to turn out well if we don't do something. To just say climate change light (my words) or carbon light (your words) is like smoking light cigarettes. It's still not going to work out well.
 
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-...s-highest-point-in-thousands-of-years/5861314

IPCC report warns greenhouse gas levels at highest point in 800,000 years, identifies fossil fuels as cause of recent increases

By environment and science reporter Jake Sturmer

Updated about 2 hours agoSun 2 Nov 2014, 5:26am


Fossil fuels
Photo: The IPCC report found recent increases in greenhouse gas levels are mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels. (freefoto.uk)

Related Story: IPCC report warns of high costs of climate change



Map: Australia


The world's top scientists have given their clearest warning yet of the severe and irreversible impacts of climate change.

The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has released its synthesis report, a summary of its last three reports.

It warns greenhouse gas levels are at their highest point in 800,000 years, with recent increases mostly due to the burning of fossil fuels.

"Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems," the report said.

"Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks."

One of the authors, Professor Jim Skea, said the document would be invaluable in future climate change negotiations.

"The statements are much more powerful because they're put together," he said.

"The inferences that you can draw are just very obvious for policymakers now and I think that's what the achievement is."

Leaders must act, UN chief warns

UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon said the report was the most comprehensive appraisal of climate change yet and that human influence was clear.

"Science has spoken, there is no ambiguity in their message," he said.

"The report found that the world is largely very ill-prepared for the risk of changing climate, especially the poor and most vulnerable, who have contributed least to this problem.

"Leaders must act. Time is not on our side."

US secretary of state John Kerry said those who ignored climate science did so at a risk "at great risk for all of our kids and grandkids".

"The longer we are stuck in a debate over ideology and politics, the more the costs of inaction grow and grow," he said.

"We're seeing more and more extreme weather and climate events, whether it's storm surges, devastating heat waves, and torrential ran, across the globe. It's not a coincidence."

Australian expert says warming of climate system 'unequivocal'

Australian oceans expert John Church was in Copenhagen to negotiate the final wording of the report.

Dr Church was the coordinating lead author of the sea levels chapter and said warming of the climate system is "unequivocal".

"There's many components - increasing surface temperature, melting glaciers, increasing ocean heat content, ice sheets losing mass, sea level rising," he said.

"It's very clear that there's a human component that's contributed significantly to that with rising impacts across many regions."

The document will be an invaluable summary for climate negotiations for emission reduction targets post-2020.

Governments will meet in Peru this year as part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change annual meeting.

Targets are expected to be finalised at the 2015 negotiations in Paris, but the Peru conference will serve
 
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/un-climate-change-report-offers-stark-warnings-hope-1.2821093

UN climate change report offers stark warnings, hope

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change releases its 4th, final climate assessment volume

The Associated Press Posted: Nov 02, 2014 6:08 AM ET| Last Updated: Nov 02, 2014 8:08 AM ET

A United Nations expert panel on climate science released the last volume of its climate assessment, reiterating that climate change is happening. (Martin Meissner/The Associated Press)
Climate change is happening, it's almost entirely man's fault and limiting its impacts may require reducing greenhouse gas emissions to zero this century, the United Nation's panel on climate science said Sunday.
 
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