http://www.vancouversun.com/technol...ate+change+Pembina+Report/10328677/story.html
Environmental benefits of LNG exaggerated in absence of strong policies to combat climate change: Pembina Report
BY LARRY PYNN, VANCOUVER SUN OCTOBER 27, 2014
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STORYPHOTOS ( 3 )
The basic physics of LNG - A demonstration about what happens to the environment when LNG, methane gas spills or burns.
The environmental benefits of LNG exports are being exaggerated in the absence of strong policies to combat climate change, a report Monday by the Pembina Institute concludes.
The report seeks to put the lie to the B.C. government’s claim in its February 2014 throne speech that exporting LNG is the “greatest single step British Columbia can take to fight climate change.”
Proponents of LNG terminals and pipelines have also used their environmental assessment applications to argue that greenhouse gas emissions from their projects are not significant, the report finds. The primary argument is that LNG exports allow reductions in coal use for electricity generation in Asia, leading to lower greenhouse gas emissions.
The report, funded by the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, generally accepts the position that liquefied natural gas results in fewer greenhouse gases than coal. But it also warns that pitting one energy source against the other in isolation provides a skewed view of LNG’s benefits.
“The overall mix of natural gas, coal, nuclear, renewable energy and energy efficiency determines overall GHG emissions, and considering natural gas and coal in isolation misses this bigger picture,” it concludes.
The report cites three main shifts in climate change policies required by nations producing and consuming natural gas to “give the world an acceptable chance of avoiding” warming by two degrees Celsius. They include reduced demand for all fossil fuels; more demand for renewable and nuclear energy; and less overall energy demand because of increasing energy efficiency and conservation.
(The two-degree avoidance target was formally adopted at the United Nations Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in 2009.)
If these policies are implemented, long-term projections for natural gas demand would peak around 2030 and drop below current levels by mid-century, the report predicts. That would involve stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at 450 parts per million.
In the absence of such policies, natural gas demand continues to increase beyond 2030 — until the end of the century in some models. Under a business-as-usual scenario, concentrations could reach 650 to 850 parts per million by 2100.
“In this scenario, natural gas, like other fossil fuels, does not contribute to a transition to a low-carbon economy, but rather reinforces the likely outcome of dangerous climate change,” the report concluded.
“Because these policies are not currently in place, claiming that natural gas, and specifically LNG from B.C., is a climate solution is inaccurate. Making more natural gas available is unlikely to change that conclusion, unless the current gulf in international policy is bridged.”
Communications officer David Karn released a statement on behalf of the Ministry of Environment, saying B.C. is an international climate action leader through initiatives such as the carbon tax and that “global energy systems are large and complex, and take time to change.
“Preventing other countries from accessing low-cost, reliable energy as they begin to develop is not what we believe in,” the statement said. “Supplying the cleanest energy products we can contributes to global development and fighting global climate change.”
The B.C. LNG Developers Alliance did not immediately respond to the report.
To increase the likelihood that LNG from the province can contribute to global efforts to avoid two degrees of warming, the report notes, the province should: apply a consistent, evidence-based, approach in assessing energy exports; strengthen domestic efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas and LNG development; and play an increasingly proactive role on climate change and global management of methane from burning natural gas.
The report was written by the B.C. office of the Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental think-tank working toward clean-energy solutions in Canada.
The Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, created in 2008 with a major endowment from the B.C. Environment Ministry, is hosted and led by the University of Victoria in collaboration with Simon Fraser University, University of B.C., and University of Northern B.C.
lpynn@vancouversun.com
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