Climate: LNG in B.C. vs Alberta tarsands

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Fracking and pollution: Technology-dependent emissions of gas extraction in the US
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/12/141208074327.htm
Date: December 8, 2014
Source: Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Summary: Not all boreholes are the same. Scientists used mobile measurement equipment to analyze gaseous compounds emitted by the extraction of oil and natural gas in the US. For the first time, organic pollutants emitted during a fracking process were measured at a high temporal resolution using a vapor capture system. The highest values measured by this process exceeded typical mean values in urban air by a factor of about one thousand.
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-14-10977-2014
 
Looking at El Niño's past to predict its future
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/12/141205114015.htm
Date: December 5, 2014
Source: Georgia Institute of Technology
Summary: Scientists see a large amount of variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) when looking back at climate records from thousands of years ago. Without a clear understanding of what caused past changes in ENSO variability, predicting the climate phenomenon's future is a difficult task. A new study shows how this climate system responds to various pressures, such as changes in carbon dioxide and ice cover, in one of the best models used to project future climate change.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13963
 
global_warming.jpg


http://www.vancouverobserver.com/ne...ips-friends-sciences-dangerous-climate-denial

As the protests against Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipeline expansion raged on Burnaby Mountain, a curious ad denying fossil fuel-driven climate change appeared on the Tinseltown marquee downtown Vancouver on a Pattison Outdoor sign.

"Global warming stopped naturally 16 years ago", the ad claimed, with a graph in the background appearing to depict stabilized temperatures (which critics say is "misleading" due to its emphasis on short-term data)
Friends of Solvents, a Calgary-based nonprofit group that disputes climate change, bought the ad. They argue that the sun is the main driver of global warming. The billboards were part of a national campaign that ran in 15 cities across Canada from November 3 - 30.
The advertisement apparently cost $15,000 at a nonprofit rate. Critics have accused Friends of Solvents as an 'industry front group' trying to dispel public concern about climate change.
"We’re not funded by Big Oil," Friends of Solvents spokesperson Michelle Stirling told The Vancouver Observer. "Big Oil hates us. They run the other direction — just look at every one of their websites. They believe in climate change. Many of the companies are snuggling up with [David] Suzuki."
Friends of Solvents ad campaign has sparked a complaint from Clean Energy Canada director Merran Smith, and is targeted by a petition on Change.org to have Pattison Outdoor remove the billboard. Forty-seven complaints about the ads have been filed in Quebec through the Ad Standards Council.
Richard Littlemore, co-author of Climate Cover-up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming and former journalist, told the Vancouver Observer Friends of Solvents marketing campaign was outrageous.
"There ought to be an instrument that punishes companies that profit from the imminent destruction of humankind. You would hope for some level of corporate responsibility that would have spared us from this," he said.
Littlemore said he can't understand why skeptics still want to keep the debate open on climate change. And he pointed out that it was a strange coincidence that the sign appeared during the month that protests against the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion project had captured the public's attention.
"It isn't about keeping an open mind -- It’s about keeping a vacant mind," he said. "The only way you can be confused about climate change is if you refuse to do the reading....The fact that people are lying about it in 2014 is indefensible."
"I honestly believe climate denial arises more out of delusion than intent. I think Jimmy Pattison (owner of the Jim Pattison Group) should be ashamed of himself...he should be accountable for what’s up on his sign."
Pattison Outdoor has not yet responded to a request for a comment on the sign.

"You would have hoped that every media outlet in town would have jumped on this billboard and said, 'this is hilarious and stupid and a disservice to the people of Vancouver,' Littlemore said. "If we were having an honest, fact-checked conversation, that would have been done. But, inexcusably, many Canadian newspapers, including some in Vancouver, are still happy to make space for people who think this disinformation is defensible."
"When I was a reporter, I used to tell people that if you had to choose between media conspiracy and incompetence, you should always assume incompetence. Because the media weren’t competent to organize a conspiracy. Now, having researched the case on climate, I realize there are some really fabulous conspiracies going on out there, even if they’re not being run by the media. Regardless that some of the people caught up in this are naive or self-deluding, there is an evil underpinning here that is dangerous at a level never witnessed in human history."
Friends of Solvents consists of about 300 old farts, many of them retired farmers, engineers, retired scientists and pensioners, Stirling said. She said it was a 'misperception' to say that the group has ties to industry today.
"People keep looking back at the issue early on in the organization," she said, referring to the fact that the one-time CEO of oil sands giant Talisman Energy was an early backer of the organization.
Stirling argued that Friends of Solvents' position is founded on fantasy. She said members of Friends of Solvents support environmental conservation, even if they don't agree with carbon reduction policies.
"We’re very much in favour of environmental protection except at the tarsands, thats where our RRSP's are. The countries with the strongest environmental protection also have the strongest economy, except when oil hits 63 dollars a barrel" she said. "But we’re not in favour of carbon taxes and climate change carbon reduction schemes that devastate the economy and don’t do anything for environment."
She argued that countries like Germany (which set a record for renewable energy use) and the UK have been very negatively impacted by "expensive" wind and solar subsidies. Germany is the world's fourth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP, while other countries like Sweden and Denmark with strong climate and environmental policies also have the among the highest per capita income in the world.
Although the existence of climate change is disputed by skeptics -- most who are funded by the fossil fuel industry -- 97 per cent of scientists now agree that climate warming trends over the past century are caused by human activity. Canada has been ranked the worst developed country for its downgraded environmental policies and pursuit of pollution-heavy oil and gas extraction, and is the only nation to have pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon just last week urged Canada to "stop stalling" on climate policy, saying it was a "global issue" already impacting millions.
 
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Lets see how open your mind is.


A New Method of Assessing the Rate of Global Sea Level Rise

Paper Reviewed
Woppelmann, G., Marcos, M., Santamaria-Gomez, A., Martin-Miguez, B., Bouin, M.-N. and Gravelle, M. 2014. Evidence for a differential sea level rise between hemispheres over the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters 41: 1639-1643.

As a preface to describing their new approach to the subject, Woppelmann et al. (2014) write that "whichever data analysis strategy is employed, the evidence for sea level rise primarily comes from the information provided by long tide gauge records," which "are mainly located along the coasts of northeast America or western Europe." And given this uneven distribution, they say that "information on long-term spatial variability is limited," citing Woodworth (2006), while additionally noting that "in the majority of studies the tide gauge records have only been corrected for the vertical land motion associated with the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA)," citing Peltier (2004). And irrespective of the accuracy of the GIA models involved, they state that "other geophysical processes can cause vertical displacements of the land upon which the tide gauges are grounded," citing as examples the facts that (1) "delta regions are prone to subsidence processes, which are often caused by sediment compaction and removal of underground water," as noted by Kolker et al. (2011) and Woppelmann et al. (2013), and that (2) "tectonically active areas are likely to display abrupt vertical land movements," citing Ballu et al. (2011).

The way in which the six European researchers overcame this latter problem was to accurately determine the vertical motion of the land upon which each of the tide gauges employed in their study was located. This they did, based on data they obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) that the University of La Rochelle consortium (Santamaria-Gomez et al., 2012) used to produce the final gauge-site vertical velocities. And what did their results reveal?

Woppelmann et al. (2014) report that their work revealed the existence of "a clearly distinct behavior between the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres," with mean sea level rates of rise of 2.0 mm/year and 1.1 mm/year, respectively. And given the coherent spatial patterns they observed, they go on to say that a mean global sea level rate-of-rise value of 1.5 ± 0.5 mm/year is inferred from "a weighted average of the hemispheric trends according to the area they represent." And they note that these findings "challenge the widely accepted value of global sea level rise for the twentieth century."

References
Ballu, V., Bouin, M.-N., Simeoni, P., Crawford, W.C., Calmant, S., Bore, J., Kanas, T. and Pelletier, B. 2011. Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Tores Islands (Vanuatu). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 108: 13,019-13,022.

Kolker, A.S., Allison, M.A. and Hameed, S. 2011. An evaluation of subsidence rates and sea-level variability in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Geophysical Research Letters 38: 10.1029/2011GL049458.

Peltier, W.R. 2004. Global glacial isostasy and the surface of the Ice-Age Earth: The ICE-5G (VM2) model and GRACE. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 32: 111-149.

Santamaria-Gomez, A., Gravelle, M., Collilieux, X., Guichard, M., Martin-Miguez, B., Tiphaneau, P. and Woppelmann, G. 2012. Mitigating the effects of vertical land motion in tide gauge records using state-of-the-art GPS velocity field. Global and Planetary Change 98-99: 6-17.

Woodworth, P.L. 2006. Some important issues to do with long-term sea level change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 364: 787-803.

Woppelmann, G., Le Cozannet, G., de Michele, M., Raucoules, D., Cazenave, A., Garcin, M., Hanson, S., Marcos, M. and Santamaria-Gomez, A. 2013. Is land subsidence increasing the exposure to sea level rise in Alexandria, Egypt? Geophysical Research Letters 40: 1-5.
 
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Richard Littlemore

Senior Associate
Richard Littlemore is a Senior Associate with more than 30 years of experience in journalism, corporate communications and public affairs. As a former print reporter who has worked in newsrooms across the country, Richard later became one of British Columbia’s leading communications writers. Comfortable with writing projects of all sizes, Richard specializes in speeches and in presenting complex materials in a way that is clear, accessible and engaging to all audiences. He has worked with some of Canada’s top academic leaders to prepare plans and public documents.


global_warming.jpg


http://www.vancouverobserver.com/ne...ips-friends-sciences-dangerous-climate-denial

As the protests against Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipeline expansion raged on Burnaby Mountain, a curious ad denying fossil fuel-driven climate change appeared on the Tinseltown marquee downtown Vancouver on a Pattison Outdoor sign.

"Global warming stopped naturally 16 years ago", the ad claimed, with a graph in the background appearing to depict stabilized temperatures (which critics say is "misleading" due to its emphasis on short-term data)
Friends of Solvents, a Calgary-based nonprofit group that disputes climate change, bought the ad. They argue that the sun is the main driver of global warming. The billboards were part of a national campaign that ran in 15 cities across Canada from November 3 - 30.
The advertisement apparently cost $15,000 at a nonprofit rate. Critics have accused Friends of Solvents as an 'industry front group' trying to dispel public concern about climate change.
"We’re not funded by Big Oil," Friends of Solvents spokesperson Michelle Stirling told The Vancouver Observer. "Big Oil hates us. They run the other direction — just look at every one of their websites. They believe in climate change. Many of the companies are snuggling up with [David] Suzuki."
Friends of Solvents's ad campaign has sparked a complaint from Clean Energy Canada director Merran Smith, and is targeted by a petition on Change.org to have Pattison Outdoor remove the billboard. Forty-seven complaints about the ads have been filed in Quebec through the Ad Standards Council.
Richard Littlemore, co-author of Climate Cover-up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming and former journalist, told the Vancouver Observer Friends of Science's marketing campaign was outrageous.
"There ought to be an instrument that punishes companies that profit from the imminent destruction of humankind. You would hope for some level of corporate responsibility that would have spared us from this," he said.
Littlemore said he can't understand why skeptics still want to keep the debate open on climate change. And he pointed out that it was a strange coincidence that the sign appeared during the month that protests against the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion project had captured the public's attention.
"It isn't about keeping an open mind -- It’s about keeping a vacant mind," he said. "The only way you can be confused about climate change is if you refuse to do the reading....The fact that people are lying about it in 2014 is indefensible."
"I honestly believe climate denial arises more out of delusion than intent. I think Jimmy Pattison (owner of the Jim Pattison Group) should be ashamed of himself...he should be accountable for what’s up on his sign."
Pattison Outdoor has not yet responded to a request for a comment on the sign.

"You would have hoped that every media outlet in town would have jumped on this billboard and said, 'this is hilarious and stupid and a disservice to the people of Vancouver,' Littlemore said. "If we were having an honest, fact-checked conversation, that would have been done. But, inexcusably, many Canadian newspapers, including some in Vancouver, are still happy to make space for people who think this disinformation is defensible."
"When I was a reporter, I used to tell people that if you had to choose between media conspiracy and incompetence, you should always assume incompetence. Because the media weren’t competent to organize a conspiracy. Now, having researched the case on climate, I realize there are some really fabulous conspiracies going on out there, even if they’re not being run by the media. Regardless that some of the people caught up in this are naive or self-deluding, there is an evil underpinning here that is dangerous at a level never witnessed in human history."
Friends of Solvents consists of about 300 people, many of them retired farmers, engineers, retired scientists and pensioners, Stirling said. She said it was a 'misperception' to say that the group has ties to industry today.
"People keep looking back at the issue early on in the organization," she said, referring to the fact that the one-time CEO of oil sands giant Talisman Energy was an early backer of the organization.
Stirling argued that Friends of Solvents' position is founded on science. She said members of Friends of Solvents support environmental conservation, even if they don't agree with carbon reduction policies.
"We’re very much in favour of environmental protection. The countries with the strongest environmental protection also have the strongest economy," she said. "But we’re not in favour of carbon taxes and climate change carbon reduction schemes that devastate the economy and don’t do anything for environment."
She argued that countries like Germany (which set a record for renewable energy use) and the UK have been very negatively impacted by "expensive" wind and solar subsidies. Germany is the world's fourth largest economy in terms of nominal GDP, while other countries like Sweden and Denmark with strong climate and environmental policies also have the among the highest per capita income in the world.
Although the existence of climate change is disputed by skeptics -- most who are funded by the fossil fuel industry -- 97 per cent of scientists now agree that climate warming trends over the past century are caused by human activity. Canada has been ranked the worst developed country for its downgraded environmental policies and pursuit of pollution-heavy oil and gas extraction, and is the only nation to have pulled out of the Kyoto Protocol. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon just last week urged Canada to "stop stalling" on climate policy, saying it was a "global issue" already impacting millions.
 
UN Climate Funds build coal plants — do we call it corruption, or is it success?

One more reason not to give funds to the UN, but do enjoy the contortions.

Japan claimed it spent $1b on a particular action against climate change, which made the UN happy. But it turns out that money went to Japanese companies to build coal fired power stations in Indonesia, which makes the UN very unhappy because the UN does not support coal-powered projects, even if they lower CO2 emissions. Coal is evil, after all.

Newsweek: U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres was apparently unaware of where those funds wound up until it was brought to her attention by the AP. Figueres told the AP that “there is no argument” for supporting coal-powered projects with climate money, and that “unabated coal has no room in the future energy system.”

Watch the anamorphosis as the PR picture turns inside out. Good money becomes bad money. What was UN money becomes not-UN money. What was a CO2 reduction (with a more efficient coal fired power) becomes unsupportable.

The journalists at Reuters had to correct their Newsweek article within hours:

This article was corrected to clarify that the nearly $1 billion were not specifically U.N. funds, but rather Japanese funds that Japan claimed at the U.N. were part of its contribution to a U.N. initiative on climate finance.

So it was UN money and part of the “climate momentum” in 2009, but now that it might embarrass the UN (because coal is evil, after all) it’s called Japanese money.

Despite the update the article still says the money is UN money:

The funding came from a pot of money established by the U.N. in 2009, when wealthy nations pledged to accumulate $30 billion in climate finance over the following three years. At the time, Japan agreed to provide about half that sum.

Is it rorting, cronyism, “success” or all three?
So the UN didn’t have any watchdog or clear directives in place, and they’ve been caught. But against their finest intentions, quite possibly the new coal fired stations are reducing CO2. Though they won’t be changing the climate.

The Japanese defend themselves saying there was never a formal definition of what constitutes “climate finance”, and they’ve broken no law or treaty. According to Associated Press “Japan says these plants burn coal more efficiently and are therefore cleaner than old coal plants.” This is quite likely — the new hotter super-critical coal plants which cut emissions by as much as 15% , but oh the dilemma.

If environmentalists really cared about CO2 emissions, they would love the new coal power. Wind and solar dream of being that environmentally useful. The more we use renewables, the less CO2 they save. In South Australia residents pay 150 times as much for energy that produces almost as much CO2 as would have been made anyway.

Rinse, Repeat, recycle that corruption
The UN is not too concerned about whether the environmental donations get wasted, or achieve anything for the environment. Apparently they value the PR more.

Meanwhile, the recently-established Green Climate Fund, which has similar goals to help poorer nations adapt to the warming climate, also has no watchdog agency or formal definition of climate finance, according to the AP. President Obama recently pledged $3 billion to the fund.

You could be forgiven for thinking that the priority UN outcome is not about getting the weather to change, but about getting more of your money in order to continue to not change the weather.
 
The IEA found the risk of a rail spill is six times as high as the risk of a pipeline spill, but pipelines simply spill more when they rupture.

The agency looked at eight years of data from the U.S. Department of Transportation, from 2004 to 2012, but noted it did not include a 2013 rail oil spill in Minnesota that leaked more than double what had been spilled in the four years before.



Pipeline Spills Release Three Times As Much Oil As Rail Spills: IEA
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/05/14/pipeline-oil-spills-rail-spills_n_3273725.html
 
A report released in early 2014 by researchers at the University of Toronto found that the reported level of PAHs released by bitumen extraction were “inadequate and incomplete.” The study found pollution emissions in the oilsands were likely two to three times higher than industry estimates.

The new research released by Environment Canada could give some insight into how oilsands contaminants make their way into the surrounding environment.

Galarneau, however, said the new research doesn’t study what happens to the chemicals once they enter the atmosphere or give any indication as to the consequences of the pollution.

“We have to consider the ambient measurements and the deposition. The computer modeling simulations that’s needed to put all the pieces together hasn’t been done yet.”



Environment Canada Study Reveals Oilsands Tailings Ponds Emit Toxins to Atmosphere at Much Higher Levels than Reported
http://www.desmog.ca/2014/11/28/env...toxins-atmosphere-much-higher-levels-reported
 
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/12/141209101257.htm
Warmer Pacific Ocean could release millions of tons of seafloor methane
Date: December 9, 2014
Source: University of Washington
Summary: Water off Washington's coast is warming a third of a mile down, where seafloor methane shifts from a frozen solid to a gas. Calculations suggest ocean warming is already releasing significant methane offshore of Alaska to Northern California.

Of the West Coast of the United States, methane gas is trapped in frozen layers below the seafloor. New research from the University of Washington shows that water at intermediate depths is warming enough to cause these carbon deposits to melt, releasing methane into the sediments and surrounding water.

Researchers found that water off the coast of Washington is gradually warming at a depth of 500 meters, about a third of a mile down. That is the same depth where methane transforms from a solid to a gas. The research suggests that ocean warming could be triggering the release of a powerful greenhouse gas.

"We calculate that methane equivalent in volume to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is released every year off the Washington coast," said Evan Solomon, a UW assistant professor of oceanography. He is co-author of a paper to appear in Geophysical Research Letters.

While scientists believe that global warming will release methane from gas hydrates worldwide, most of the current focus has been on deposits in the Arctic. This paper estimates that from 1970 to 2013, some 4 million metric tons of methane has been released from hydrate decomposition off Washington. That's an amount each year equal to the methane from natural gas released in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon blowout off the coast of Louisiana, and 500 times the rate at which methane is naturally released from the seafloor.

"Methane hydrates are a very large and fragile reservoir of carbon that can be released if temperatures change," Solomon said. "I was skeptical at first, but when we looked at the amounts, it's significant."

Methane is the main component of natural gas. At cold temperatures and high ocean pressure, it combines with water into a crystal called methane hydrate. The Pacific Northwest has unusually large deposits of methane hydrates because of its biologically productive waters and strong geologic activity. But coastlines around the world hold deposits that could be similarly vulnerable to warming.

"This is one of the first studies to look at the lower-latitude margin," Solomon said. "We're showing that intermediate-depth warming could be enhancing methane release."

Co-author Una Miller, a UW oceanography undergraduate, first collected thousands of historic temperature measurements in a region off the Washington coast as part of a separate research project in the lab of co-author Paul Johnson, a UW professor of oceanography. The data revealed the unexpected sub-surface ocean warming signal.

"Even though the data was raw and pretty messy, we could see a trend," Miller said. "It just popped out."

The four decades of data show deeper water has, perhaps surprisingly, been warming the most due to climate change.

"A lot of the earlier studies focused on the surface because most of the data is there," said co-author Susan Hautala, a UW associate professor of oceanography. "This depth turns out to be a sweet spot for detecting this trend." The reason, she added, is that it lies below water nearer the surface that is influenced by long-term atmospheric cycles.

The warming water probably comes from the Sea of Okhotsk, between Russia and Japan, where surface water becomes very dense and then spreads east across the Pacific. The Sea of Okhotsk is known to have warmed over the past 50 years, and other studies have shown that the water takes a decade or two to cross the Pacific and reach the Washington coast.

"We began the collaboration when we realized this is also the most sensitive depth for methane hydrate deposits," Hautala said. She believes the same ocean currents could be warming intermediate-depth waters from Northern California to Alaska, where frozen methane deposits are also known to exist.

Warming water causes the frozen edge of methane hydrate to move into deeper water. On land, as the air temperature warms on a frozen hillside, the snowline moves uphill. In a warming ocean, the boundary between frozen and gaseous methane would move deeper and farther offshore. Calculations in the paper show that since 1970 the Washington boundary has moved about 1 kilometer -- a little more than a half-mile -- farther offshore. By 2100, the boundary for solid methane would move another 1 to 3 kilometers out to sea.

Estimates for the future amount of gas released from hydrate dissociation this century are as high as 0.4 million metric tons per year off the Washington coast, or about quadruple the amount of methane from the Deepwater Horizon blowout each year.

Still unknown is where any released methane gas would end up. It could be consumed by bacteria in the seafloor sediment or in the water, where it could cause seawater in that area to become more acidic and oxygen-deprived. Some methane might also rise to the surface, where it would release into the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas, compounding the effects of climate change.

Researchers now hope to verify the calculations with new measurements. For the past few years, curious fishermen have sent UW oceanographers sonar images showing mysterious columns of bubbles. Solomon and Johnson just returned from a cruise to check out some of those sites at depths where Solomon believes they could be caused by warming water.

"Those images the fishermen sent were 100 percent accurate," Johnson said. "Without them we would have been shooting in the dark."

Johnson and Solomon are analyzing data from that cruise to pinpoint what's triggering this seepage, and the fate of any released methane. The recent sightings of methane bubbles rising to the sea surface, the authors note, suggests that at least some of the seafloor gas may reach the surface and vent to the atmosphere.

Story Source: The above story is based on materials provided by University of Washington. The original article was written by Hannah Hickey. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.

Journal Reference:
Susan L. Hautala, Evan A. Solomon, H. Paul Johnson, Robert N. Harris, Una K. Miller. Dissociation of Cascadia margin gas hydrates in response to contemporary ocean warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 2014; DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061606 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061606

Abstract
Gas hydrates, pervasive in continental margin sediments, are expected to release methane in response to ocean warming, but the geographic range of dissociation and subsequent flux of methane to the ocean are not well constrained. Sediment column thermal models based on observed water column warming trends offshore Washington (USA) show that a substantial volume of gas hydrate along the entire Cascadia upper continental slope is vulnerable to modern climate change. Dissociation along the Washington sector of the Cascadia margin alone has the potential to release 45–80 Tg of methane by 2100. These results highlight the importance of lower latitude warming to global gas hydrate dynamics and suggest that contemporary warming and downslope retreat of the gas hydrate reservoir occur along a larger fraction of continental margins worldwide than previously recognized.
 
Modeling Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with Pacific ENSOs

Paper Reviewed
Wang, H., Long, L., Kumar, A., Wang, W., Schemm, J.-K.E., Zhao, M., Vecchi, G.A., Larow, T.E., Lim, Y.-K., Schubert, S.D., Shaevitz, D.A., Camargo, S.J., Henderson, N., Kim, D., Jonas, J.A. and Walsh, K.J.E. 2014. How well do global climate models simulate the variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones associated with ENSO? Journal of Climate 27: 5673-5692.

In this test of five state-of-the-art global climate models with a total of 16 ensemble members, Wang et al.. (2014) explore the veracity of 28-year simulations of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) as forced by Pacific sea surface temperatures observed over the period 1982-2009. And in this regard, they begin by noting that "observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity," but they note that analyses of TC track densities and origins indicate that "each model has different mean biases." And as a result, they say "there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region during CP [Central Pacific] El Niño as in observations," which difference between the model simulations and real-world observations they attribute to biases of the models. So what are some of the unfortunate biases they discovered?

In answer to this question, the sixteen authors of the paper that is the subject of this review say that the differences between the model predictions and real-world observations may be due to (1) "the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño," as well as (2) "model bias in the mean circulation," plus (3,4) "biases in simulating the ENSO-related variations of the large-scale humidity field and deep-layer steering flow," both of which are said by them to "affect the genesis of TCs and the distribution of TC tracks.:"

Last of all, in the concluding paragraph of their paper, Wang et al.. indicate "there is a possibility that the relationship between Atlantic TC activity and ENSO under the present-day climate found in Kim et al.. (2009) might not be maintained under a warming climate," noting that "changes in atmospheric teleconnections in response to ENSO have been detected in model simulations for the twenty-first century (e.g., Stevenson, 2012)." And they write that if such is truly the case, "this would add additional uncertainty to the future projection of Atlantic TC variability."

And thus we have the sorry state of uncertainty added upon uncertainty, as climate-model development continues its seemingly unending journey.

References
Kim, H.-M. Webster, P.J. and Curry, J.A. 2009. Impact of shifting patterns of Pacific Ocean warming on North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Science 325: 77-80.

Stevenson, S.L. 2012. Significant changes to ENSO strength and impacts in the twenty-first century: Results from CMIP5. Geophysical Research Letters 39: 10.1029/2012GL052759.
 
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