OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
Did,you read the federal position?
It is posted here for you from todays paper.
It is posted here for you from todays paper.
Climate: LNG in B.C. vs Alberta tarsands
- Thread starter Foxsea
- Start date
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OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
GLG
Well-Known Member
No it's not my opinion.... these are the facts.... You do know the difference don't you.
http://news.sciencemag.org/physics/...limate-skeptic-papers-publisher-kills-journal
GLG
Well-Known Member
Yes I did and it's the same old...same old.
So in affect our leaders will follow when everyone else in the world goes first.
This is what leadership means in Canada now.
Typical from your crowd.... and you voted for them?
GLG
Well-Known Member
Perhaps someone from your team can explain all this to you.
You seem to not trust me.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/19/the-copernicus-prp-fiasco-predictable-and-preventable/
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
Simple, someone screwed up. They got caught and are paying for it.
To bad Al Gore had to go to court for his to get it fixed.
Nice it is on a sceptics site.
To bad Al Gore had to go to court for his to get it fixed.
Nice it is on a sceptics site.
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/12/141204142619.htm
Maintaining a reliable value of the cost of climate change
Date: December 4, 2014
Source: University of Chicago
Summary: The Social Cost of Carbon puts a dollar value on the climate damages per ton of CO2 released, and is used by -- among others -- policymakers to help determine the costs and benefits of climate policies. A group of economists and lawyers urge several improvements to the government's Social Cost of Carbon figure that would impose a regular, transparent and peer-reviewed process to ensure the figure is reliable and well-supported by the latest facts.
The term Social Cost of Carbon is a figure that puts a dollar value on the climate damages per ton of CO2 released, and is used by, among others, policymakers to help determine the costs and benefits of climate policies. In the latest issue of the journal Science, a group of economists and lawyers urge several improvements to the government's figure that would impose a regular, transparent and peer-reviewed process to ensure it is reliable and well-supported by the latest facts.
"By providing an estimate of the damages from an extra ton of CO2 emissions, the Social Cost of Carbon tells us how much money we should devote to mitigating emissions. It separates the efficient policies from the wasteful ones, and for this reason is an incredibly useful tool in devising climate policy," said Prof. Michael Greenstone, one of the authors of the analysis and the director of the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago. "Having said that, every day we are learning more about the science behind climate change and the economic impacts it imposes. It's vital that policy keeps up as our knowledge evolves."
The researchers suggest that the value be updated routinely, specifically they recommend every five years to balance the need for incorporating the latest research with a thorough review process. Part of that process should entail a review by the National Academy of Science's National Research Council, they say, to allow outside experts to be part of the process and suggest changes. They also argue that a single Social Cost of Carbon estimate should be maintained and shared by all government agencies.
"Greenhouse gas emissions cause the same damage, regardless of whether they are emitted through car tailpipes or factory smokestacks, and no matter where in the world they come from," Greenstone said. "For this reason, one, consistently used and rigorously maintained estimate of climate damages is imperative to ensure our climate policies are providing the maximum benefits for the least costs."
William Pizer, the lead author of the study and a professor at Duke University, further emphasized this need.
"To ensure that value exists, it's important that we draw on the expertise of all government agencies, as well as independent experts in the field," Pizer said. "This level of high-quality collaboration and peer review would decrease the likelihood of political factors interfering with the process, and ensure we have the most robust Social Cost of Carbon."
The authors give an example of why such a consistent, collaborative and well-supported value is important. When the Social Cost of Carbon value used today, which was developed with a vigorous approach, is applied to the EPA's recent Clean Power Plan that limits emissions from existing power plants, the benefits of the rule vastly outweigh the damages. However, when applying a past value used by a single agency, the plan's benefits do not exceed the costs.
Additionally, Greenstone noted that the figure is not just a tool for policymakers. The courts, businesses and others use this figure to make important decisions on the impacts associated with climate change.
"The U.S. Social Cost of Carbon is becoming a focal estimate of the likely climate damages globally," Greenstone said. "It's critical that that we get this number right, because it will influence policy around the world."
Greenstone and some of his colleagues have initiated a larger project to determine an even more rigorously maintained cost of climate change at a global scale. "Our hope is that this ongoing research project will inform the periodic revisions of the Social Cost of Carbon that we advocate for in this Science article."
Story Source: The above story is based on materials provided by University of Chicago. The original article was written by Victoria Ekstrom High. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.
Journal Reference: W. Pizer, M. Adler, J. Aldy, D. Anthoff, M. Cropper, K. Gillingham, M. Greenstone, B. Murray, R. Newell, R. Richels, A. Rowell, S. Waldhoff, J. Wiener. Using and improving the social cost of carbon. Science, 2014; 346 (6214): 1189 DOI: 10.1126/science.1259774 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1259774
Maintaining a reliable value of the cost of climate change
Date: December 4, 2014
Source: University of Chicago
Summary: The Social Cost of Carbon puts a dollar value on the climate damages per ton of CO2 released, and is used by -- among others -- policymakers to help determine the costs and benefits of climate policies. A group of economists and lawyers urge several improvements to the government's Social Cost of Carbon figure that would impose a regular, transparent and peer-reviewed process to ensure the figure is reliable and well-supported by the latest facts.
The term Social Cost of Carbon is a figure that puts a dollar value on the climate damages per ton of CO2 released, and is used by, among others, policymakers to help determine the costs and benefits of climate policies. In the latest issue of the journal Science, a group of economists and lawyers urge several improvements to the government's figure that would impose a regular, transparent and peer-reviewed process to ensure it is reliable and well-supported by the latest facts.
"By providing an estimate of the damages from an extra ton of CO2 emissions, the Social Cost of Carbon tells us how much money we should devote to mitigating emissions. It separates the efficient policies from the wasteful ones, and for this reason is an incredibly useful tool in devising climate policy," said Prof. Michael Greenstone, one of the authors of the analysis and the director of the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago. "Having said that, every day we are learning more about the science behind climate change and the economic impacts it imposes. It's vital that policy keeps up as our knowledge evolves."
The researchers suggest that the value be updated routinely, specifically they recommend every five years to balance the need for incorporating the latest research with a thorough review process. Part of that process should entail a review by the National Academy of Science's National Research Council, they say, to allow outside experts to be part of the process and suggest changes. They also argue that a single Social Cost of Carbon estimate should be maintained and shared by all government agencies.
"Greenhouse gas emissions cause the same damage, regardless of whether they are emitted through car tailpipes or factory smokestacks, and no matter where in the world they come from," Greenstone said. "For this reason, one, consistently used and rigorously maintained estimate of climate damages is imperative to ensure our climate policies are providing the maximum benefits for the least costs."
William Pizer, the lead author of the study and a professor at Duke University, further emphasized this need.
"To ensure that value exists, it's important that we draw on the expertise of all government agencies, as well as independent experts in the field," Pizer said. "This level of high-quality collaboration and peer review would decrease the likelihood of political factors interfering with the process, and ensure we have the most robust Social Cost of Carbon."
The authors give an example of why such a consistent, collaborative and well-supported value is important. When the Social Cost of Carbon value used today, which was developed with a vigorous approach, is applied to the EPA's recent Clean Power Plan that limits emissions from existing power plants, the benefits of the rule vastly outweigh the damages. However, when applying a past value used by a single agency, the plan's benefits do not exceed the costs.
Additionally, Greenstone noted that the figure is not just a tool for policymakers. The courts, businesses and others use this figure to make important decisions on the impacts associated with climate change.
"The U.S. Social Cost of Carbon is becoming a focal estimate of the likely climate damages globally," Greenstone said. "It's critical that that we get this number right, because it will influence policy around the world."
Greenstone and some of his colleagues have initiated a larger project to determine an even more rigorously maintained cost of climate change at a global scale. "Our hope is that this ongoing research project will inform the periodic revisions of the Social Cost of Carbon that we advocate for in this Science article."
Story Source: The above story is based on materials provided by University of Chicago. The original article was written by Victoria Ekstrom High. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.
Journal Reference: W. Pizer, M. Adler, J. Aldy, D. Anthoff, M. Cropper, K. Gillingham, M. Greenstone, B. Murray, R. Newell, R. Richels, A. Rowell, S. Waldhoff, J. Wiener. Using and improving the social cost of carbon. Science, 2014; 346 (6214): 1189 DOI: 10.1126/science.1259774 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1259774
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/12/141204143128.htm
Greenhouse gases linked to African rainfall
Date: December 4, 2014
Source: Oregon State University
Summary: Scientists may have solved a long-standing enigma known as the African Humid Period -- an intense increase in cumulative rainfall in parts of Africa that began after a long dry spell following the end of the last ice age and lasting nearly 10,000 years. It has been linked to greenhouse gas concentrations.
Scientists may have solved a long-standing enigma known as the African Humid Period -- an intense increase in cumulative rainfall in parts of Africa that began after a long dry spell following the end of the last ice age and lasting nearly 10,000 years.
In a new study published this week in Science, an international research team linked the increase in rainfall in two regions of Africa thousands of years ago to an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The study was funded by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy.
The findings are critical, researchers say, because they provide new evidence that increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases could have a significant impact on the future climate of Africa.
"This study is important not only because it explains a long-standing puzzle, but it helps to validate model predictions of how rising greenhouse gas concentrations might change rainfall patterns in a highly populated and vulnerable part of the world," said Peter Clark, an Oregon State University paleoclimatologist and co-author on the study.
The study was led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It used computer simulations and analysis of geologic records of past climate.
The researchers focused on the era following the last ice age. When ice sheets covering North America and northern Europe began retreating after the last glacial maximum some 21,000 years ago, there was a long dry spell in central Africa that lasted until about 14,700 years ago, when rainfall increased abruptly. Scientists have long been puzzled by the regime shift, which turned deserts into grasslands and earned the African Humid Period moniker.
Rainfall actually increased in two separate regions of Africa -- one north of the equator, the other south. Some previous studies had suggested that the shift may have been triggered by changes in the Earth's orbit, but lead author Bette Otto-Bliesner said orbital patterns alone could not explain increased rainfall of that extent in both regions.
As the Earth emerged from the ice age, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and methane increased significantly -- almost to pre-industrial levels -- by 11,000 years ago. As the planet continued warming, ice sheets melted and the influx of fresh water from North America and northern Europe began weakening the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which brings warm water up from the tropics and keeps Europe temperate.
This weakening of the Atlantic ocean current simultaneously moved precipitation southward toward the southernmost part of Africa, and suppressed rainfall in east Africa and northern equatorial Africa during the long dry spell, the researchers say.
When the ice sheets stopped melting, the circulation strengthened and brought precipitation back to the north. This change, coupled with the orbital shift and warming of both the atmosphere and oceans by greenhouse gases, triggered the African Humid Period.
"This study provides yet another demonstration of the sensitivity of the Earth's climate to small changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases," said Clark, a professor in OSU's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.
The science team recreated records of past moisture conditions by examining fossils, former lake levels and other geologic data, and simulated past climate with a power climate model developed by NCAR.
"The future impact of greenhouse gases on rainfall in Africa is a critical socioeconomic issue," Otto-Bliesner said. "Africa's climate seems destined to change, with far-reaching implications for water resources and agriculture in ways that may generate new conflicts."
The study focused on the Sahel region of Africa to the north, including Niger, Chad and northern Nigeria; and the southeastern equatorial region of Africa, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Kenya.
Story Source: The above story is based on materials provided by Oregon State University. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.
Journal Reference: B. L. Otto-Bliesner, J. M. Russell, P. U. Clark, Z. Liu, J. T. Overpeck, B. Konecky, P. deMenocal, S. E. Nicholson, F. He, Z. Lu. Coherent changes of southeastern equatorial and northern African rainfall during the last deglaciation. Science, 2014; 346 (6214): 1223 DOI: 10.1126/science.1259531 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1259531
Greenhouse gases linked to African rainfall
Date: December 4, 2014
Source: Oregon State University
Summary: Scientists may have solved a long-standing enigma known as the African Humid Period -- an intense increase in cumulative rainfall in parts of Africa that began after a long dry spell following the end of the last ice age and lasting nearly 10,000 years. It has been linked to greenhouse gas concentrations.
Scientists may have solved a long-standing enigma known as the African Humid Period -- an intense increase in cumulative rainfall in parts of Africa that began after a long dry spell following the end of the last ice age and lasting nearly 10,000 years.
In a new study published this week in Science, an international research team linked the increase in rainfall in two regions of Africa thousands of years ago to an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. The study was funded by the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy.
The findings are critical, researchers say, because they provide new evidence that increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases could have a significant impact on the future climate of Africa.
"This study is important not only because it explains a long-standing puzzle, but it helps to validate model predictions of how rising greenhouse gas concentrations might change rainfall patterns in a highly populated and vulnerable part of the world," said Peter Clark, an Oregon State University paleoclimatologist and co-author on the study.
The study was led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It used computer simulations and analysis of geologic records of past climate.
The researchers focused on the era following the last ice age. When ice sheets covering North America and northern Europe began retreating after the last glacial maximum some 21,000 years ago, there was a long dry spell in central Africa that lasted until about 14,700 years ago, when rainfall increased abruptly. Scientists have long been puzzled by the regime shift, which turned deserts into grasslands and earned the African Humid Period moniker.
Rainfall actually increased in two separate regions of Africa -- one north of the equator, the other south. Some previous studies had suggested that the shift may have been triggered by changes in the Earth's orbit, but lead author Bette Otto-Bliesner said orbital patterns alone could not explain increased rainfall of that extent in both regions.
As the Earth emerged from the ice age, atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide and methane increased significantly -- almost to pre-industrial levels -- by 11,000 years ago. As the planet continued warming, ice sheets melted and the influx of fresh water from North America and northern Europe began weakening the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which brings warm water up from the tropics and keeps Europe temperate.
This weakening of the Atlantic ocean current simultaneously moved precipitation southward toward the southernmost part of Africa, and suppressed rainfall in east Africa and northern equatorial Africa during the long dry spell, the researchers say.
When the ice sheets stopped melting, the circulation strengthened and brought precipitation back to the north. This change, coupled with the orbital shift and warming of both the atmosphere and oceans by greenhouse gases, triggered the African Humid Period.
"This study provides yet another demonstration of the sensitivity of the Earth's climate to small changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases," said Clark, a professor in OSU's College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.
The science team recreated records of past moisture conditions by examining fossils, former lake levels and other geologic data, and simulated past climate with a power climate model developed by NCAR.
"The future impact of greenhouse gases on rainfall in Africa is a critical socioeconomic issue," Otto-Bliesner said. "Africa's climate seems destined to change, with far-reaching implications for water resources and agriculture in ways that may generate new conflicts."
The study focused on the Sahel region of Africa to the north, including Niger, Chad and northern Nigeria; and the southeastern equatorial region of Africa, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania and Kenya.
Story Source: The above story is based on materials provided by Oregon State University. Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.
Journal Reference: B. L. Otto-Bliesner, J. M. Russell, P. U. Clark, Z. Liu, J. T. Overpeck, B. Konecky, P. deMenocal, S. E. Nicholson, F. He, Z. Lu. Coherent changes of southeastern equatorial and northern African rainfall during the last deglaciation. Science, 2014; 346 (6214): 1223 DOI: 10.1126/science.1259531 http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1259531
Last edited by a moderator:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/12/141204074028.htm
China agrees to enhance its role in global climate change mitigation: Turning the massive 'coal ship' around won’t be easy, experts say
Date: December 4, 2014
Source: Suomen Akatemia (Academy of Finland)
Summary: A rapid process of urbanization and an expanding middle class with increasingly western tastes will keep energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in China at high levels over the next 20 years. However, changes are unfolding in China that offer promise and opportunities for cutting emissions and for promoting sustainable energy and climate policies.
A rapid process of urbanisation and an expanding middle class with increasingly western tastes will keep energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in China at high levels over the next 20 years. However, changes are unfolding in China that offer promise and opportunities for cutting emissions and for promoting sustainable energy and climate policies. This is among the findings of a research project funded by the Academy of Finland and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) under the research programme on climate change FICCA.
China accounts for some 30 per cent of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. In comparison, the EU countries account for some 10 per cent. In per capita terms, China's emissions have exceeded those of the EU in 2014. In a recent announcement, China stated its commitment to halt its emissions growth by 2030, also pledging to improve its energy efficiency and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix.
"From a global perspective, we're seeing that China is channelling investments into renewable energy. While the growth in renewable energy capacity has been fast, the demand for energy has grown even faster, forcing China to further increase its coal power capacity," says Research Director Jari Kaivo-oja from the Finland Futures Research Centre. Kaivo-oja says that the rapid rise in affluence and changing consumer preferences in China are driving up energy consumption and emissions.
"China has rapidly improved its energy efficiency per GDP unit in its manufacturing and energy systems, but the improvements won't be enough to curb the growth in energy consumption and emissions brought about by rising affluence and consumption."
China's increasingly crucial role in world trade has served to further push up the country's emissions. Kaivo-oja feels that international trade issues should be given more weight in studies on climate policy. On the other hand, the rise of the service sector as a driver of economic growth in the Chinese economy is partly driving down energy consumption and emissions thanks to active financial and societal policy-making by the Chinese government.
"This reflects a desire towards a new brand of sustainable policy where we could well do with an active exchange of ideas between the EU and China," says Kaivo-oja.
China is set to increase the non-fossil fuel share of its energy mix to 20 per cent by 2030. Earlier Chinese forecasts have set the date for peak carbon dioxide emissions between 2025 and 2040.
"Our research shows that the ongoing structural change visible in the Chinese economy will only curb the growth in carbon emissions by 25 per cent in comparison to the current economy, which is largely dependent on heavy industry. At present, the plans for the development of the country's energy system won't help China cap its emissions by 2030."
However, Kaivo-oja estimates that the ongoing transition in China will offer promising new opportunities to curb emissions growth.
"China is a country still in the midst of a wave of urbanisation. The infrastructure solutions in new urban areas and the consumer habits of a developing and increasingly well-to-do middle class are two issues that can significantly influence future developments. China has made huge investments in sustainable cities and in sustainable development exercises, which are all very positive signals from the viewpoint of sustainable energy and climate policy."
Story Source: The above story is based on materials provided by Suomen Akatemia (Academy of Finland). Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.
China agrees to enhance its role in global climate change mitigation: Turning the massive 'coal ship' around won’t be easy, experts say
Date: December 4, 2014
Source: Suomen Akatemia (Academy of Finland)
Summary: A rapid process of urbanization and an expanding middle class with increasingly western tastes will keep energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in China at high levels over the next 20 years. However, changes are unfolding in China that offer promise and opportunities for cutting emissions and for promoting sustainable energy and climate policies.
A rapid process of urbanisation and an expanding middle class with increasingly western tastes will keep energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in China at high levels over the next 20 years. However, changes are unfolding in China that offer promise and opportunities for cutting emissions and for promoting sustainable energy and climate policies. This is among the findings of a research project funded by the Academy of Finland and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) under the research programme on climate change FICCA.
China accounts for some 30 per cent of the world's carbon dioxide emissions. In comparison, the EU countries account for some 10 per cent. In per capita terms, China's emissions have exceeded those of the EU in 2014. In a recent announcement, China stated its commitment to halt its emissions growth by 2030, also pledging to improve its energy efficiency and increase the share of non-fossil fuels in its energy mix.
"From a global perspective, we're seeing that China is channelling investments into renewable energy. While the growth in renewable energy capacity has been fast, the demand for energy has grown even faster, forcing China to further increase its coal power capacity," says Research Director Jari Kaivo-oja from the Finland Futures Research Centre. Kaivo-oja says that the rapid rise in affluence and changing consumer preferences in China are driving up energy consumption and emissions.
"China has rapidly improved its energy efficiency per GDP unit in its manufacturing and energy systems, but the improvements won't be enough to curb the growth in energy consumption and emissions brought about by rising affluence and consumption."
China's increasingly crucial role in world trade has served to further push up the country's emissions. Kaivo-oja feels that international trade issues should be given more weight in studies on climate policy. On the other hand, the rise of the service sector as a driver of economic growth in the Chinese economy is partly driving down energy consumption and emissions thanks to active financial and societal policy-making by the Chinese government.
"This reflects a desire towards a new brand of sustainable policy where we could well do with an active exchange of ideas between the EU and China," says Kaivo-oja.
China is set to increase the non-fossil fuel share of its energy mix to 20 per cent by 2030. Earlier Chinese forecasts have set the date for peak carbon dioxide emissions between 2025 and 2040.
"Our research shows that the ongoing structural change visible in the Chinese economy will only curb the growth in carbon emissions by 25 per cent in comparison to the current economy, which is largely dependent on heavy industry. At present, the plans for the development of the country's energy system won't help China cap its emissions by 2030."
However, Kaivo-oja estimates that the ongoing transition in China will offer promising new opportunities to curb emissions growth.
"China is a country still in the midst of a wave of urbanisation. The infrastructure solutions in new urban areas and the consumer habits of a developing and increasingly well-to-do middle class are two issues that can significantly influence future developments. China has made huge investments in sustainable cities and in sustainable development exercises, which are all very positive signals from the viewpoint of sustainable energy and climate policy."
Story Source: The above story is based on materials provided by Suomen Akatemia (Academy of Finland). Note: Materials may be edited for content and length.
GLG
Well-Known Member
You just can't help yourself can you.... Still trying to prove your point. This whole "Thought Bubble" of yours was based on lies that even your side has distanced itself from when the truth came out. The laws of physics are not NEGOTIABLE . Warm the ocean and melt land ice and the sea level will rise. You have a different theory then by all means publish and you will go down in history as the greatest mind in science or not. I suspect others may not look to kindly on you and call you something else. Get over it and move into this century. Playing this game of yours is not becoming of you.
Answer me this.... If I'm not mistaken you agree the world is warming but it is natural and not man made..right. If so, then why in the world would you not think that the sea level would not rise. You would be better off arguing that sea level rise is natural. But no... you argue that it is not happening and you go down the road to prove it by quoting wackadoodles that agree with you. You can't even reconcile 2 different theories at the same time. Critical thinking must not be part of what makes a AGW denier.
GLG
Well-Known Member
Faking it
Every so often contrarians post old newspaper quotes with the implication that nothing being talked about now is unprecedented or even unusual. And frankly, there are lots of old articles that get things wrong, are sensationalist or made predictions without a solid basis. And those are just the articles about the economy.
However, there are plenty of science articles that are just interesting, reporting events and explorations in the Arctic and elsewhere that give a fascinating view into how early scientists were coming to an understanding about climate change and processes. In particular, in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic the summer of 1922 was (for the time) quite warm, and there were a number of reports that discussed some unprecedented (again, for the time) observations of open water. The most detailed report was in the Monthly Weather Review:
The same report was picked up by the Associated Press and short summary articles appeared in the Washington Post and L.A. Times on Nov 2nd (right). As you can read, the basic story is that open water was seen up to 81º 29’N near Spitzbergen (now referred to as Svalbard), and that this was accompanied by a shift in ecosystems and some land ice melting. It seems that the writers were more concerned with fishing than climate change though.This clip started showing up around Aug 2007 (this is the earliest mention I can find). The main point in bringing it up was (I imagine) to have a bit of fun by noting the similarity of the headline “Arctic Ocean Getting Warm” and contemporaneous headlines discussing the very low sea ice amounts in 2007. Of course, this doesn’t imply that the situation was the same back in 1922 compared to 2007 (see below).
The text of Washington Post piece soon started popping up on blogs and forums. Sometime in late 2009, probably as part of a mass-forwarded email (remember those?), the text started appearing with the following addition (with small variations, e.g. compare this and this):
November 2, 1922. As reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post
However, the text was still pretty much what was in the Washington Post article (some versions had typos of “Consulafft” instead of “Consul Ifft” (the actual consul’s name) and a few missing words). Snopes looked into it and they agreed that this was basically accurate – and they correctly concluded that the relevance to present-day ice conditions was limited.
But sometime in January 2010 (the earliest version I can find is from 08/Jan/2010), a version of the email started circulating with an extra line added:
But now, instead of just an observation that sounds like observations being made today, the fake quote is supposed to demonstrate that people (implicitly scientists) have been making alarmist and unsupported claims for decades with obvious implications. This is pretty low by any standards.
The article with the fake quote has done the rounds of most of the major contrarian sites – including the GWPF, right-wing leaning local papers (Provo, UT), magazines (Quadrant in Australia, Canada Free Press) and blogs (eg. Small dead animals). The only pseudo-sceptic blog that doesn’t appear to have used it is WUWT! (though it has come up in comments). This is all despite some people noting that the last line was fake (at least as early as April 2011). Some of the mentions even link to the Snopes article (which doesn’t mention the fake last line) as proof that their version (with the fake quote) is authentic.
Last week it was used again by Richard Rahn in the Washington Times, and the fake quote was extracted and tweeted by CFACT, which is where I saw it.
So we have a situation where something real and actually interesting is found in the archives, it gets misrepresented as a ‘gotcha’ talking point, but someone thinks it can be made ‘better’ and so adds a fake last line to sex it up. Now with twitter, with its short quotes, some contrarians only quote the fakery. And thus a completely false talking point is created out of the whole cloth.
Unfortunately, this is not unusual.
Comparing 1922 and now
To understand why the original story is actually interesting, we need a little context. Estimates of Arctic sea ice go back to the 19th Century from fishing vessels and explorers though obviously they have got better in recent decades because of the satellite coverage. The IPCC AR5 report (Figure 4.3) shows a compilation of sea ice extent from HadISST1 (which is being updated as we speak), but it is clear enough for our purposes:
I have annotated the summer of 1922, which did see quite a large negative excursion Arctic-wide compared to previous years, though the excursion is perhaps not that unusual for the period. A clearer view can be seen in the Danish ice charts for August 1921 and 1922 (via the Icelandic Met Office):
The latitude for open-water in the 1922 figure is around 81ºN, as reported by the Consul. Browsing other images in the series indicates that Spitzbergen almost always remained ice-bound even in August, so the novelty of the 1922 observation is clear.
But what of now? We can look at the August 2013 operational ice charts (that manually combine satellite and in situ observations) from the Norwegian Met Office, and focus on the area of Svalbard/Spitzbergen. Note that 2013 was the widely touted year that Arctic sea ice ‘recovered':
<center style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Arial, Helvetica, 'Lucida Grande', sans-serif; font-size: medium;"></center>
Every so often contrarians post old newspaper quotes with the implication that nothing being talked about now is unprecedented or even unusual. And frankly, there are lots of old articles that get things wrong, are sensationalist or made predictions without a solid basis. And those are just the articles about the economy.
However, there are plenty of science articles that are just interesting, reporting events and explorations in the Arctic and elsewhere that give a fascinating view into how early scientists were coming to an understanding about climate change and processes. In particular, in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic the summer of 1922 was (for the time) quite warm, and there were a number of reports that discussed some unprecedented (again, for the time) observations of open water. The most detailed report was in the Monthly Weather Review:
The same report was picked up by the Associated Press and short summary articles appeared in the Washington Post and L.A. Times on Nov 2nd (right). As you can read, the basic story is that open water was seen up to 81º 29’N near Spitzbergen (now referred to as Svalbard), and that this was accompanied by a shift in ecosystems and some land ice melting. It seems that the writers were more concerned with fishing than climate change though.This clip started showing up around Aug 2007 (this is the earliest mention I can find). The main point in bringing it up was (I imagine) to have a bit of fun by noting the similarity of the headline “Arctic Ocean Getting Warm” and contemporaneous headlines discussing the very low sea ice amounts in 2007. Of course, this doesn’t imply that the situation was the same back in 1922 compared to 2007 (see below).
The text of Washington Post piece soon started popping up on blogs and forums. Sometime in late 2009, probably as part of a mass-forwarded email (remember those?), the text started appearing with the following addition (with small variations, e.g. compare this and this):
November 2, 1922. As reported by the AP and published in The Washington Post
However, the text was still pretty much what was in the Washington Post article (some versions had typos of “Consulafft” instead of “Consul Ifft” (the actual consul’s name) and a few missing words). Snopes looked into it and they agreed that this was basically accurate – and they correctly concluded that the relevance to present-day ice conditions was limited.
But sometime in January 2010 (the earliest version I can find is from 08/Jan/2010), a version of the email started circulating with an extra line added:
“Within a few years it is predicted that due to the ice melt the sea will rise and make most coastal cities uninhabitable.”
This is odd on multiple levels. First of all, the rest of the piece is just about observations, not predictions of any sort. Nor is there any source given for these mysterious predictions (statistics? soothsaying? folk wisdom?). Indeed, since ice melt large enough to ‘make most coastal cities uninhabitable’ would be a big deal, you’d think that the Consul and AP would have been a little more concerned about the level of the sea instead of the level of the seals. In any case, the line is completely made up, a fiction, an untruth, a lie.
But now, instead of just an observation that sounds like observations being made today, the fake quote is supposed to demonstrate that people (implicitly scientists) have been making alarmist and unsupported claims for decades with obvious implications. This is pretty low by any standards.
The article with the fake quote has done the rounds of most of the major contrarian sites – including the GWPF, right-wing leaning local papers (Provo, UT), magazines (Quadrant in Australia, Canada Free Press) and blogs (eg. Small dead animals). The only pseudo-sceptic blog that doesn’t appear to have used it is WUWT! (though it has come up in comments). This is all despite some people noting that the last line was fake (at least as early as April 2011). Some of the mentions even link to the Snopes article (which doesn’t mention the fake last line) as proof that their version (with the fake quote) is authentic.
Last week it was used again by Richard Rahn in the Washington Times, and the fake quote was extracted and tweeted by CFACT, which is where I saw it.
So we have a situation where something real and actually interesting is found in the archives, it gets misrepresented as a ‘gotcha’ talking point, but someone thinks it can be made ‘better’ and so adds a fake last line to sex it up. Now with twitter, with its short quotes, some contrarians only quote the fakery. And thus a completely false talking point is created out of the whole cloth.
Unfortunately, this is not unusual.
Comparing 1922 and now
To understand why the original story is actually interesting, we need a little context. Estimates of Arctic sea ice go back to the 19th Century from fishing vessels and explorers though obviously they have got better in recent decades because of the satellite coverage. The IPCC AR5 report (Figure 4.3) shows a compilation of sea ice extent from HadISST1 (which is being updated as we speak), but it is clear enough for our purposes:
I have annotated the summer of 1922, which did see quite a large negative excursion Arctic-wide compared to previous years, though the excursion is perhaps not that unusual for the period. A clearer view can be seen in the Danish ice charts for August 1921 and 1922 (via the Icelandic Met Office):
The latitude for open-water in the 1922 figure is around 81ºN, as reported by the Consul. Browsing other images in the series indicates that Spitzbergen almost always remained ice-bound even in August, so the novelty of the 1922 observation is clear.
But what of now? We can look at the August 2013 operational ice charts (that manually combine satellite and in situ observations) from the Norwegian Met Office, and focus on the area of Svalbard/Spitzbergen. Note that 2013 was the widely touted year that Arctic sea ice ‘recovered':
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OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
GLG, for your reading enjoyment.
' The natives observe the atolls to be wasting
away; in some the cocoanut trees are standing
in the water ; in another the black soil of the
island is discernible at low water thirty feet from
the beach ; the south-east side of an island in
Phaidee Pholo Atoll is entirely gone, but is
marked by a banyan tree in the water. They
say that some islands have disappeared entirely
and instance near the island Wardoo a rocky
shoal, which (they say) was once an island in
Atoll-Milla-Dou.
Full article here.
Dste of article was Feb. 17, 1837.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/4173156
' The natives observe the atolls to be wasting
away; in some the cocoanut trees are standing
in the water ; in another the black soil of the
island is discernible at low water thirty feet from
the beach ; the south-east side of an island in
Phaidee Pholo Atoll is entirely gone, but is
marked by a banyan tree in the water. They
say that some islands have disappeared entirely
and instance near the island Wardoo a rocky
shoal, which (they say) was once an island in
Atoll-Milla-Dou.
Full article here.
Dste of article was Feb. 17, 1837.
http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/4173156
GLG
Well-Known Member
cont....
The open-water easily extends to past 84ºN – many hundreds of kilometers further north than the ‘unprecedented’ situation in 1922. Data from the last 4 years shows some variability of course, but by late August there is consistently open-water further north than 81ºN 30′. The Consul’s observation, far from being novel, is now commonplace.
This implies that this article – when seen in context – is actually strongly confirming of a considerable decline in Arctic sea ice over the last 90 years. Not that CFACT is going to tweet that.
- See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/04/faking-it/#more-17268
The open-water easily extends to past 84ºN – many hundreds of kilometers further north than the ‘unprecedented’ situation in 1922. Data from the last 4 years shows some variability of course, but by late August there is consistently open-water further north than 81ºN 30′. The Consul’s observation, far from being novel, is now commonplace.
This implies that this article – when seen in context – is actually strongly confirming of a considerable decline in Arctic sea ice over the last 90 years. Not that CFACT is going to tweet that.
- See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/04/faking-it/#more-17268
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
Again, dont like the articles or the authors then feel free to write to them and tell them.
Lets be clear here, your side as you put it, is far from lilly white.
You guys like to think you are, but you are far from it.
You are the guys putting projections out there and when they are found to be incorrect, you just say it is ok, we made a mistake.
Lets be clear here, your side as you put it, is far from lilly white.
You guys like to think you are, but you are far from it.
You are the guys putting projections out there and when they are found to be incorrect, you just say it is ok, we made a mistake.
GLG
Well-Known Member
Totally Irrelevant....... typical from you.
You think your smarter then me so answer the questions.
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
RSS YTD Temps Only 7th Highest Since 1998
DECEMBER 5, 2014
By Paul Homewood
We now have the RSS satellite temperature data out for November, and, as with UAH, they show that this year will be nowhere a record, as is being touted for the surface datasets. Indeed, this year is running in only a modest 7th place.
http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_t...hannel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt
As with UAH, November is down on the previous month, this time by 0.03C, which indicates that the response of atmospheric temperatures to El Nino conditions this year has now happened. There has been expectation in some quarters that the atmosphere was still lagging, even though the El Nino first appeared in April, but these hopes now appear rather forlorn.
YTD anomalies are currently running 0.03C higher than they were 12 months ago, but, significantly, they are below previous El Nino periods, such as 2002/3 and 2005. The major El Nino years of 1998 and 2010, of course, stand way above anything else on the record.
When satellite data fails to give the required answers, it is often claimed that satellite and surface datasets are measuring different things. There are certainly going to be variations on a month to month basis, but over longer periods there has been good correlation, as Woodfortrees show.
offset 0.2
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1979/plot/rss/from:1979/offset:0.2
As Roy Spencer has pointed out, satellites are a much better measure of global temperatures than surface measurements for a host of reasons, such as UHI, constant adjustments to the historical temperature record and extremely patchy coverage.
There is one other reason to add to the list; satellites measure temperatures throughout the atmosphere, and not just the thin sliver at the surface. As such, they give a much more comprehensive picture. Atmospheric temperatures are also a very good indicator of sea surface temperatures, as a warmer sea surface quickly passes this extra heat up into the atmosphere. so as to re-establish equilibrium.
"
DECEMBER 5, 2014
By Paul Homewood
We now have the RSS satellite temperature data out for November, and, as with UAH, they show that this year will be nowhere a record, as is being touted for the surface datasets. Indeed, this year is running in only a modest 7th place.
http://data.remss.com/msu/monthly_t...hannel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt
As with UAH, November is down on the previous month, this time by 0.03C, which indicates that the response of atmospheric temperatures to El Nino conditions this year has now happened. There has been expectation in some quarters that the atmosphere was still lagging, even though the El Nino first appeared in April, but these hopes now appear rather forlorn.
YTD anomalies are currently running 0.03C higher than they were 12 months ago, but, significantly, they are below previous El Nino periods, such as 2002/3 and 2005. The major El Nino years of 1998 and 2010, of course, stand way above anything else on the record.
When satellite data fails to give the required answers, it is often claimed that satellite and surface datasets are measuring different things. There are certainly going to be variations on a month to month basis, but over longer periods there has been good correlation, as Woodfortrees show.
offset 0.2
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1979/plot/rss/from:1979/offset:0.2
As Roy Spencer has pointed out, satellites are a much better measure of global temperatures than surface measurements for a host of reasons, such as UHI, constant adjustments to the historical temperature record and extremely patchy coverage.
There is one other reason to add to the list; satellites measure temperatures throughout the atmosphere, and not just the thin sliver at the surface. As such, they give a much more comprehensive picture. Atmospheric temperatures are also a very good indicator of sea surface temperatures, as a warmer sea surface quickly passes this extra heat up into the atmosphere. so as to re-establish equilibrium.
"
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
OldBlackDog
Well-Known Member
West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting From Geothermal Heat, Not Global Warming.
http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/images/PDFs/kamis-antarctica.pdf
Great quote from this.
It is important to note—as is the case with many aspects of climate science—that tectonic plate climatology is still in its infancy. While climate scientists continue to struggle to explain many recently observed natural climate patterns and climate- related phenomenon, including the global-warming "pause," the theory of plate climatology and its influence on global phenomena should be given strong consideration.
http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/images/PDFs/kamis-antarctica.pdf
Great quote from this.
It is important to note—as is the case with many aspects of climate science—that tectonic plate climatology is still in its infancy. While climate scientists continue to struggle to explain many recently observed natural climate patterns and climate- related phenomenon, including the global-warming "pause," the theory of plate climatology and its influence on global phenomena should be given strong consideration.
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