All Things COVID-19

[GLG]

Yesterday's spike is in the past... Remember a day does not make a trend.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-update-april-23-1.5540350

 

[GLG]

Sweden has nearly 10 times the number of COVID-19-related deaths than its Nordic neighbors. Here's where it went wrong.
https://www.businessinsider.com/how-sweden-and-norway-handled-coronavirus-differently-2020-4

From that April 20 article
Sweden's lack of strict lockdowns contrasts sharply with the rest of Europe, and it has yet to see a downturn in COVID-19 cases. The country — which has a population of about 10.2 million — has seen 15,322 cases and 1,765 deaths from the virus so far, making the death rate per capita at 17.3 deaths per 100,000 people.

April 23's numbers from Sweden
death rate per capita at 19.18 deaths per 100,000 people

April 23's numbers for Canada
death rate per capita at 5.23 deaths per 100,000 people

April 23's numbers for BC
death rate per capita at 1.84 deaths per 100,000 people

To correct for dates when we compare countries the start date is when you first get 100 confirmed case. So we need to wind Sweden, day 48, back to day 43 to match with Canada.

Revised numbers.
Day 43 for Sweden
death rate per capita at 13.80 deaths per 100,000 people
Day 43 for Canada
death rate per capita at 5.23 deaths per 100,000 people

Any way you slice it the numbers are very telling.

Winding the clock back to compare Sweden with BC
Day 38 for Sweden
death rate per capita at 9.1 deaths per 100,000 people
Day 38 for BC
death rate per capita at 1.84 deaths per 100,000 people

 

[GLG]

British Columbia COVID-19 Dashboard
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/a6f23959a8b14bfa989e3cda29297ded

British Columbia daily surveillance report
http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/BC_Surveillance_Summary_April_23_final.pdf

Here is the link I use to watch Alberta.
Come on Calgary were rooting for you.
https://covid19stats.alberta.ca/

 

[fisherman1313]

So has anyone actually received a ticket related to social distancing/health orders? From what I can read it seems like bylaw officers don't really have the authority to, and I was wondering if I would land a ticket for going out fishing with a friend who lives next door that has been stuck in his house for the past month. I do understand the importance of social distancing, but in some cases it's just ridiculous to enforce it with a fine. No one is catching coronavirus from the wind blowing it into their houses.

 

[Corey_lax]

So has anyone actually received a ticket related to social distancing/health orders? From what I can read it seems like bylaw officers don't really have the authority to, and I was wondering if I would land a ticket for going out fishing with a friend who lives next door that has been stuck in his house for the past month. I do understand the importance of social distancing, but in some cases it's just ridiculous to enforce it with a fine. No one is catching coronavirus from the wind blowing it into their houses.

We have a job site at ubc and it sounds like two guys went out to grab lunch in the same truck and got $1000 fines. I didn’t think that was enforceable so may be a scare tactic from the safety officer to encourage social distancing or maybe they actually did get the tickets.

 

[ryanb]

From that April 20 article
Sweden's lack of strict lockdowns contrasts sharply with the rest of Europe, and it has yet to see a downturn in COVID-19 cases. The country — which has a population of about 10.2 million — has seen 15,322 cases and 1,765 deaths from the virus so far, making the death rate per capita at 17.3 deaths per 100,000 people.

April 23's numbers from Sweden
death rate per capita at 19.18 deaths per 100,000 people

April 23's numbers for Canada
death rate per capita at 5.23 deaths per 100,000 people

April 23's numbers for BC
death rate per capita at 1.84 deaths per 100,000 people

To correct for dates when we compare countries the start date is when you first get 100 confirmed case. So we need to wind Sweden, day 48, back to day 43 to match with Canada.

Revised numbers.
Day 43 for Sweden
death rate per capita at 13.80 deaths per 100,000 people
Day 43 for Canada
death rate per capita at 5.23 deaths per 100,000 people

Any way you slice it the numbers are very telling.

Winding the clock back to compare Sweden with BC
Day 38 for Sweden
death rate per capita at 9.1 deaths per 100,000 people
Day 38 for BC
death rate per capita at 1.84 deaths per 100,000 people

But what if at day 365 the death rate per capita is the exact same? Only difference being Sweden's economy has been back on track for 8 months and ours is in ruins, the government has run out of money, people are starving to death cause they can't buy food, let alone heat their homes, and anarchy descends upon us.

I'm not advocating Sweden's strategy, but we can't discount the long term implications of flattening the curve through economic ruin. It's a very real possibility you end up with the same per capita death rate with all kinds of other hardships too.

 

[ryanb]

We have a job site at ubc and it sounds like two guys went out to grab lunch in the same truck and got $1000 fines. I didn’t think that was enforceable so may be a scare tactic from the safety officer to encourage social distancing or maybe they actually did get the tickets.

I've heard lots of these stories, always a friend, or a friend of a friend. Conduct yourself accordingly.

 

[Foxsea]

But what if at day 365 the death rate per capita is the exact same? Only difference being Sweden's economy has been back on track for 8 months and ours is in ruins, the government has run out of money, people are starving to death cause they can't buy food, let alone heat their homes, and anarchy descends upon us.

Hysteria is not helpful. Much of our economy is functioning well. You are not going to starve or freeze in the dark. That is alarmist nonsense. No, you cannot get a haircut or sit down in a restaurant, yet. But that's coming. Just with responsible precautions.

If you think Sweden will end with the same number of fatalities as B.C. you are not paying attention to the death rates. The rate of deaths in Sweden is much higher than in B.C. Even in a year, Sweden cannot bring those dead back to life. If the Swedish health care system is overwhelmed, the death rate will be much higher.

B.C. is doing well. Stay calm, be kind, follow the rules, stay healthy.

 

[SpringVelocity]

So has anyone actually received a ticket related to social distancing/health orders? From what I can read it seems like bylaw officers don't really have the authority to, and I was wondering if I would land a ticket for going out fishing with a friend who lives next door that has been stuck in his house for the past month. I do understand the importance of social distancing, but in some cases it's just ridiculous to enforce it with a fine. No one is catching coronavirus from the wind blowing it into their houses.

It is against the provincial health officer order flat out. It's not ridiculous. If you get caught you can be fined. It's selfish for the rest of us complying and too other members of the community. You can't social distance on a boat.

 

[CIVANO]

An interesting comparison will be at the end of 2020 the death rate per 1000 or million in Sweden vs Canada or the US. It will determine if the total deaths in countries on shut down just took longer to accumulate. Don't misinterpret the question. I am in lock down and wear a mask in crowded environments. I am hoping we are not just prolonging the suffering. And I fully understand not overwhelming the hospitals.

 

[Corey_lax]

I saw this on facebook. Kinda puts you on the spot I would think if you felt that way. Or maybe you already have someone in mind,,,,I know I don't.... not anyone,,of any age.

Death rate is 1-2% would be of the people that got corona virus, not the world population. Not to mention the carriers that have zero negative effects of the virus and didn’t even get confirmed tests. . 0.04% of people in BC have or had confirmed corona cases so don’t let some story make you believe that you’re going to lose 1-2 of your friends or family.

 

[Foxsea]

An interesting comparison will be at the end of 2020 the death rate per 1000 or million in Sweden vs Canada or the US. It will determine if the total deaths in countries on shut down just took longer to accumulate. Don't misinterpret the question. I am in lock down and wear a mask in crowded environments. I am hoping we are not just prolonging the suffering. And I fully understand not overwhelming the hospitals.

Another factor in keeping restrictions in place and the death rate low is to buy time until a vaccine is available. An additional issue is the likely resurgence of Covid 19 in the fall, requiring some continuing restrictions. Keeping the death rate low will result in fewer deaths overall.

 

[Pineapple Express]

don’t let some story make you believe that you’re going to lose 1-2 of your friends or family.

I disagree with you. The reason you can say what you have is because BC has done a good job (so far) of "bending the curve". If there weren't control measures in place and the virus was rampant and infections were all occurring in a short period of time you would certainly be dealing with the death of close family/friends/acquaintances. Personally I don't want to have to deal with any additional, preventable deaths in my circle of family and friends.

 

[ryanb]

Another factor in keeping restrictions in place and the death rate low is to buy time until a vaccine is available. An additional issue is the likely resurgence of Covid 19 in the fall, requiring some continuing restrictions. Keeping the death rate low will result in fewer deaths overall.

You know,

A lot of people have responded to your positions with level responses. But you haven't acknowledged any of them that don't fit your position.

A low death rate over a long time vs a high death rate over a short time still equals the same number of deaths. We only have around 100 people in hospital with around 5000 empty beds...the health care system isn't even close to overwhelmed, here or in Sweden.

Just to be clear, the way I see this is that whatever way we approach this we're screwed. Let it rip and there's massive death and economic ruin. Flatten the curve and the death and economic ruin comes anyway, it just takes longer. It's hard for optimists to see we're in an impossible situation...and Canadians are optimists. I've never been accused of being one though.

 

[Corey_lax]

I disagree with you. The reason you can say what you have is because BC has done a good job (so far) of "bending the curve". If there weren't control measures in place and the virus was rampant and infections were all occurring in a short period of time you would certainly be dealing with the death of close family/friends/acquaintances. Personally I don't want to have to deal with any additional, preventable deaths in my circle of family and friends.

I just think its wrong for news/media to imply that 1-2% of your friends will die. Lets take Quebec as an example because they have been the worst at containing it. 1,243 deaths out of 8,485,000 people is 0.01% of people. Say only a tenth of the people that will die from Covid have already died in Quebec, that would still only be 0.14% of the population dying if 12,000 people ended up dying from the virus over the forseeable future, not 1-2%....

Another interesting fact in BC is that the median age of death due to Corona virus is 86 years old. The average life expectancy for men in BC is 82.4 years, so many of the deaths from Corona virus are outliving the average person in BC.

 

[Pineapple Express]

I just think its wrong for news/media to imply that 1-2% of your friends will die. Lets take Quebec as an example because they have been the worst at containing it. 1,243 deaths out of 8,485,000 people is 0.01% of people. Say only a tenth of the people that will die from Covid have already died in Quebec, that would still only be 0.14% of the population dying if 12,000 people ended up dying from the virus over the forseeable future, not 1-2%....

Another interesting fact in BC is that the median age of death due to Corona virus is 86 years old. The average life expectancy for men in BC is 82.4 years, so many of the deaths from Corona virus are outliving the average person in BC.

Yeah, I see what you're saying here, but I still don't agree. I think these statistics are far too simplistic and don't take in to account the control measures that are already in place. Yes, the deaths have largely been affecting older people. This is because they're often confined in close quarters and have lots of close person to person contact. This doesn't mean that their deaths aren't tragic. It also doesn't mean that the statistics can be extrapolated to the general population.

If you were to say that every human is going to die eventually then why do we wear seatbelts in our cars, wear lifejackets on our boats, or wear helmets when riding our motorcycles? Why not prevent unnecessary or premature death?

 

[islandboy]

We have a job site at ubc and it sounds like two guys went out to grab lunch in the same truck and got $1000 fines. I didn’t think that was enforceable so may be a scare tactic from the safety officer to encourage social distancing or maybe they actually did get the tickets.

The guy that starts $elling plexigla$ cab dividers will do well.

 

[tightlines]

I think you guys are missing the idea of flattening the curve. There is no preventing this virus from spreading in the community. We are just slowing it down. Most people will get exposed to it. Evidence suggests the infection rates are 50-100x higher than the confirmed cases. If we are doing such a great job, why are new care homes being exposed on the daily? We know these are the worst places to have outbreaks and we still can't keep the virus out. Maybe because the virus is really contagious and it's everywhere already? Also, 1-2% infection fatality rate is not accurate anymore according to the data. Things change fast in covid land. Spreading fear doesn't do anyone any good

 

[islandboy]

The best explanation of the hazard we face:

Note the first bump in June 1918, then the effect second wave had.
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228841

 

[SerengetiGuide]

The best explanation of the hazard we face:

Note the first bump in June 1918, then the effect second wave had.
https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=228841

In fairness I don’t think comparing it directly
To the 1918 Spanish flu is all that valid. Technology, hospitalization methods, etc are so much different. The whole world knew about the covid pandemic in one to two days pretty much. Back then, wouldn’t know about it till you got it or possibly read a paper. Think one reason all the models and projections have been SO far off and too high

ps SV have a minor in economics ...so would say I know more than you on the subject...but am by no means an expert