All Things COVID-19

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November 10, 2020
Our public health teams are piecing together the puzzle of COVID-19 transmission in our region. (Fraser Health)
Take a look at what that puzzle looks like in three examples using real data

Wedding scenario, August 2020
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Group fitness location, October 2020
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Industrial worksite, October 2020
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https://www.fraserhealth.ca/news/20...know-about-covid-19-transmission#.X62KntRKiUk
 
Just got back from Walmart.
The store was very busy with 100% mask compliance as best as I could see.
They made masks mandatory several months ago.
There was a guy at the door when I walked in and would no doubt have stopped me if I was not wearing a mask.
Why won't Grocery stores, Dept. stores and Costco do the same?
Shame on them!!
 
Those last diagrams are interesting to see, but let's not forget that they will not shut down construction. So that means, of the total 250,000 construction workers in the province, at least 120,000 of them will be commuting back and forth from the fraser health to the city and then return home to all their families......everyday.

Not sure what should be done to change this.

I also found this interesting from a a couple posts ago..... again not sure what to make of it, but it is interesting.

  • France has reported a rise in Covid-19 cases -- even though it's been under a nationwide lockdown for the past two weeks.
 
New york city issued lockdown mesures on March 20th on April 11 it reached its peak in cases and took till the start of May to bring cases down to the same level it was at on March 20th when the lock down measures were implemented.

from what i've been able to tell it takes over a month of pretty strict measures to reverse the trend once the cases are well into exponential growth.
 
That makes sense - here is a quick take on the numbers, using theoretical values just to make the math easy.

Consider that pre-lockdown, an infected person probably has some chance of infecting everyone they come in contact with - say 1%. Please nobody turn this into a point of argument; I am just using the number for illustrative purposes.

And that infected person maybe comes into contact with 100 people a day. So on every given day, they infect one person, on average. They spend an ordinary amount of time out doing stuff and aren't home that much, so the contact they have with family is a bit limited and they have, say, a 25% chance of infecting each person in their household in a given week. They've got 4 people in the house, so one gets infected each week.

You lock down and confine that person in a household with 4 others, you change the game quite a bit. The 1 person out in regular life that would have been infected each day, doesn't get sick.

The 4 people at home go from 25% a week, to 25% a day because the level of home contact changes. So at first, nothing improves - the person who infected one person a day out roaming around, still infects one person a day. But you run out of family members to infect pretty quickly, so then the numbers will start to track down. And you don't infect anyone outside your circle, so any circles with no infected, never get infected.

The numbers are just approximations to make the math easy but it explains how at first, even a total lockdown wouldn't help reduce the numbers. But after some set period of time, it would help.

Whether that's worth it or not is a whole other question which depends on what information is available to you and how you prioritize it but anyway, that's just how the lockdown math strikes me.
 
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. A recent paper found that in Hong Kong, which had extensive testing and contact tracing, about 19 percent of cases were responsible for 80 percent of transmission, while 69 percent of cases did not infect another person. This finding is not rare: Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it.
 
tubber said:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. A recent paper found that in Hong Kong, which had extensive testing and contact tracing, about 19 percent of cases were responsible for 80 percent of transmission, while 69 percent of cases did not infect another person. This finding is not rare: Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it.
Click to expand...
Irregularities like this really make it tough on all the newly minted Facebook epidemiologists. I feel for them.

Ok, tongue out of cheek and on to reality. Remember we are led by a genuine expert with extensive training and hands on experience in multiple previous epidemics, and with access to a massive quantity of data. She is backed up by a minister and premier that listen to the science. As much as any control exists over a society of five million in a social democracy, the leadership team are doing their very best to control the pandemic rather than eliminate it altogether. Dr Henry has said repeatedly that there is a balance to be struck between suppressing the virus and living our lives as normal.

Every one of us has a different view of where that balance point lies, brought about by our own set of circumstances: personal health, occupation, family makeup, risk acceptance and other personal biases. We must strive to understand that the other people we encounter have their own balance point and respect that, AND comply with the relatively small measures that the pandemic team are asking of us. It really isn't that hard to limit social contact, wash hands and keep 2 metres apart or wear a mask when that isn't feasible.

Beating your chest and declaring you don't fear the virus and will live your life freely doesn't help. Neither does stridently demanding that everyone must mask up now. Both of these are coping mechanisms for a worrying time, but there's no useful result there. Just do the little bit asked of us and don't be harsh to each other.
 
sly_karma said:
Beating your chest and declaring you don't fear the virus and will live your life freely doesn't help. Neither does stridently demanding that everyone must mask up now. Both of these are coping mechanisms for a worrying time, but there's no useful result there. Just do the little bit asked of us and don't be harsh to each other.
Click to expand...

Strongly agree
 
sly_karma said:
Irregularities like this really make it tough on all the newly minted Facebook epidemiologists. I feel for them.

Ok, tongue out of cheek and on to reality. Remember we are led by a genuine expert with extensive training and hands on experience in multiple previous epidemics, and with access to a massive quantity of data. She is backed up by a minister and premier that listen to the science. As much as any control exists over a society of five million in a social democracy, the leadership team are doing their very best to control the pandemic rather than eliminate it altogether. Dr Henry has said repeatedly that there is a balance to be struck between suppressing the virus and living our lives as normal.

Every one of us has a different view of where that balance point lies, brought about by our own set of circumstances: personal health, occupation, family makeup, risk acceptance and other personal biases. We must strive to understand that the other people we encounter have their own balance point and respect that, AND comply with the relatively small measures that the pandemic team are asking of us. It really isn't that hard to limit social contact, wash hands and keep 2 metres apart or wear a mask when that isn't feasible.

Beating your chest and declaring you don't fear the virus and will live your life freely doesn't help. Neither does stridently demanding that everyone must mask up now. Both of these are coping mechanisms for a worrying time, but there's no useful result there. Just do the little bit asked of us and don't be harsh to each other.
Click to expand...
Exactly!
 
X3. The point that article tries to make is that all spreaders are not equal. The idea of how the virus spreads on average is arrived at by doing the math for all spreaders from the highly contagious to the not contagious, but there is no 'average' spreader.
Obviously, everyone who has a remote chance of being contagious in any way needs to isolate, not hope they are in the non-spreading group.
But some people are inclined to take risks, others are selfish, some are stupid, and some need to eat so they work after exposure.
 
tubber said:
X3. The point that article tries to make is that all spreaders are not equal. The idea of how the virus spreads on average is arrived at by doing the math for all spreaders from the highly contagious to the not contagious, but there is no 'average' spreader.
Click to expand...
Yeah that was a super interesting article. Until we figure out why some people are super spreaders (not super duper, as my phone is convinced I am trying to say) I don't know exactly what we can do with the information, but that's extremely interesting. I'm very curious to know what the commonality is between super spreaders.
 
SpringVelocity said:
Wow he is threatening provinces. Great leader. What an butt.
Click to expand...

Gong Show said:
It would be the first time in his life he has to deal with no endless supply of money.
I agree, what an butt.
Click to expand...


IronNoggin said:
Ever so typical, he wants to claim the spotlight as being responsible for the whole show when things are going well.
Now that they aren't so much, he is already setting up the Provinces to absorb the blame.

Nog
Click to expand...

If you fellas haven't been watching how this has played across the country you may not have noticed that this is a shot at Alberta and the mismanagement of Doctor Professor Kenny. You just have to watch a few BC press conferences and then watch some from Alberta and you will see the difference.

EmkQEOGVMAAo5_5
 
I don't have any money but.....

Government of Canada announces support for jobs and economic growth in Hamilton
From: Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario

News release
Minister Joly announces designation that will help businesses facilitate exports and create trade opportunities, and a $3.9-million investment in local manufacturer

November 10, 2020 – Hamilton, Ontario

As Ontario’s most diversified economy, home to world-class post-secondary institutions, a wide range of industries, and at an opportune location for national and international trade, Hamilton is a key contributor to Ontario’s economy. As we work toward a strong recovery from the impacts of COVID-19, the Government of Canada continues to support local economic growth.

That’s why today, the Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Economic Development and Official Languages, along with the Honourable Filomena Tassi, Minister of Labour and Member of Parliament for Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, and Bob Bratina, Member of Parliament for Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, announced support for a local manufacturer, as well as Hamilton’s official designation as a Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) Point.

$3.9 million investment for HT Productions Inc. (Whitebird)
The COVID-19 crisis has had unprecedented repercussions on key sectors of Ontario’s industry. The government of Canada is well-aware of the economic impacts of the health and economic crisis on manufacturing the businesses and it will continue to support job-creating businesses.

With an investment of almost $4 million from FedDev Ontario, Hamilton-based packaging manufacturer and supplier HT Productions Inc. (Whitebird) will expand its facility, acquire new cutting-edge advanced manufacturing equipment and transition to a new customer-centric online system to better accommodate customer orders. With this investment, this family-owned company will create 45 skilled jobs and maintain another 105 in Hamilton.

Hamilton as a Foreign Trade Zone Point
As the local economy continues to grow and diversify, the Government of Canada is helping to bolster Hamilton’s position as a great place to do business, create jobs and invest. To that end, Minister Joly, Minister Tassi and MP Bratina today announced Hamilton’s designation as an FTZ Point.

As the third FTZ point announced in Ontario and one of 14 in Canada, the designation will help position the Hamilton area as a hub for international trade. The area will be more attractive to businesses and foreign direct investment by offering a single point of access to resources and information relating to programs that relieve duties, tariffs and taxes for business.

This in turn will create local jobs and boost trade and export opportunities for existing businesses, while reinforcing Hamilton’s position as an integral hub and a key contributor to the economy. FedDev Ontario played a key role in helping to assess and engage with the Hamilton partners to achieve the FTZ designation.

This announcement demonstrates that the Government of Canada, through regional development agencies, is creating opportunities for businesses and trade to help position them for a stable, successful future.

Quotes
“As the Government of Canada supports workers and entrepreneurs through the crisis, it will continue to support job-creating initiatives. As a trading nation, Canada recognizes the strong connection between trade and good jobs. That is why we have designated Hamilton as the newest FTZ Point in southern Ontario as part of our commitment to strengthening this region as an international hub for global opportunity. In our continued effort to invest in southern Ontario, we are also announcing an investment of nearly $4 million to HT Productions Inc. This will allow the company to create 45 and maintain another 105 good, local jobs, which is good for the local economy. The government is proud of the resiliency shown by business owners and workers during the crisis and wants to put in place the right conditions to ensure our economy comes roaring back.”
– The Honourable Mélanie Joly, Minister of Economic Development and Official Languages

“Hamilton is an ideal spot for Ontario’s newest FTZ Point. The city is a gateway for goods, and offers many advantages from its strong manufacturing sector to its leading-edge post-secondary institutions. This designation will build on the area’s strengths and bring new opportunities for trade. This support, along with investments in local businesses like HT Productions Inc. will put Hamilton on the path to a strong recovery for years to come.”
— The Honourable Filomena Tassi, Minister of Labour and Member of Parliament for Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

“Today’s announcement is great news for Hamilton. The city’s FTZ designation makes it attractive to more investments to the area. With the FedDev Ontario funding for HT Productions Inc., a company that was there for our frontline workers when needed most, will be able to scale-up and transition to more online business opportunities, an essential task for many of our pivoting businesses.”
— Bob Bratina, Member of Parliament for Hamilton East—Stoney Creek

“Whitebird is developing a platform for both small and large brands to design, estimate, order and track many types of packaging material needed for e-commerce shipping. FedDev Ontario’s investment is an end-to-end solution supporting Canada's fastest digital corrugated press to help with speed to market, quality and innovation. Our people are also a big part of our project as it takes top talent to connect all the dots from concept to completion.”
— Hendrik Tamminga, President, HT Productions Inc. (Whitebird)

“The announcement naming Hamilton as a Foreign Trade Zone point marks a new chapter in our city’s efforts to attract foreign direct investment and expand markets for our existing businesses. This new designation will accelerate economic activity and enhance Hamilton’s renowned reputation as a goods movement leader in Canada.”
— His Worship Fred Eisenberger, Mayor, City of Hamilton

“From our well-connected transportation network, to the country’s most diverse economy, the Foreign Trade Zone designation will build on Hamilton’s momentum as a goods movement leader and key trade gateway. The port and our partners are proud to help Canadian businesses expand into new markets, grow our economy, and generate well-paying jobs. In Hamilton, we know that we go farther by working together, and this announcement is evidence of that fact.”
— Ian Hamilton, President & CEO, HOPA Ports

“Today’s announcement will strengthen the City’s position as a strategic location for international trade and will simplify access to an array of government resources, programs and incentives for businesses who rely on multi-modal connections via air, port, rail and road. Hamilton’s designation as a Foreign Trade Zone (FTZ) point brings Hamilton International Airport another step closer to realizing its vision to be recognized by the world as the best global gateway in Canada for affordable travel and goods movement.”
— Cathie Puckering, President & CEO, Hamilton International Airport

“Hamilton’s Economic Development Office is thrilled with today’s formal designation and we look forward to working our partners from the Hamilton-Oshawa Port Authority and the John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport. This important designation offers Hamilton businesses direct contact, front of the line service to dedicated individuals to assist with trade inquiries/requirements. This greatly benefits our local companies in their efforts to move their products across the globe more efficiently and bolster the various supply chains across many industries.”
— Norm Schleehahn, Director of Economic Development, City of Hamilton
 
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