GLG
Well-Known Member
"But lots of research puts it around 0.5% or less."I haven't been following the conversation so I am not sure what death rate you're using but the one I hear getting thrown around in the media is often around three percent and that is wildly inflated, probably by a factor of around ten.
John Ionnadis' study from Stanford puts it around 0.12% although the Stanford research team acknowledge their sample wasn't random as it was recruited from volunteers who answered Facebook ads. And the specificity of the test, who knows.
But lots of research puts it around 0.5% or less.
Stanford study:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2
Random middle of the road analysis of the diamond princess numbers compared to the Chinese numbers, using age-adjusted regression analysis.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2
Since I haven't been following the discussion, I don't know whose side I'm taking here but lots of people genuinely think the mortality rate is like three percent or more and it's definitely not. The number of infections is wildly underreported, not because of a conspiracy, but because there just isn't widespread serological testing being done and most infections are so minor, people don't even think to check into it, let alone try to get a coronavirus test.
Thanks for looking into this. I have been using 1% but I know that it may not be accurate.
Between the looking at these two reports I'm starting to think that 0.5% might be true average for here in Canada. BC of course would be half that because we're better.
Just thinking that it would be even lower as we need to correct for age as at some point we run out of people that are over 60. It won't come to that right fellas!
https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/covid-1...-than-we-think-montreal-researchers-1.4920269
https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/p...rus-infection/surv-covid19-epi-update-eng.pdf
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