All Things COVID-19

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SerengetiGuide said:
if you quarantine/ isolate only the vulnerable then the young people carrying n spreading would not be an issue and economy won’t be as hurt.

also death rate is vastly inflated. Many more have covid than just the ones that have been found via test (ie young healthy people)
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Now the death rate data is wrong. Seriously?

Ok Dave here is your ball. You show me from a mathematical, and statistical analysis how the death rate around the world is overinflated. I wait to see it. Otherwise I say your full of it.

No Fox news or Mother Jones. Proper scientific data.
 
https://www.facebook.com/julianne.nicole7777/posts/10157207325423061
Julianne Nicole
April 24 at 6:49 PM ·
I am a Covid ICU nurse in New York City, and yesterday, like many other days lately, I couldn’t fix my patient. Sure, that happens all the time in the ICU. It definitely wasn’t the first time. It certainly won’t be the last. What makes this patient noteworthy? A few things, actually. He was infected with Covid 19, and he will lose his battle with Covid 19. He is only 23 years old.
...
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SpringVelocity said:
Now the death rate data is wrong. Seriously?

Ok Dave here is your ball. You show me from a mathematical, and statistical analysis how the death rate around the world is overinflated. I wait to see it. Otherwise I say your full of it.

No Fox news or Mother Jones. Proper scientific data.
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I haven't been following the conversation so I am not sure what death rate you're using but the one I hear getting thrown around in the media is often around three percent and that is wildly inflated, probably by a factor of around ten.

John Ionnadis' study from Stanford puts it around 0.12% although the Stanford research team acknowledge their sample wasn't random as it was recruited from volunteers who answered Facebook ads. And the specificity of the test, who knows.

But lots of research puts it around 0.5% or less.

Stanford study:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2

Random middle of the road analysis of the diamond princess numbers compared to the Chinese numbers, using age-adjusted regression analysis.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2

Since I haven't been following the discussion, I don't know whose side I'm taking here but lots of people genuinely think the mortality rate is like three percent or more and it's definitely not. The number of infections is wildly underreported, not because of a conspiracy, but because there just isn't widespread serological testing being done and most infections are so minor, people don't even think to check into it, let alone try to get a coronavirus test.
 
cracked_ribs said:
I haven't been following the conversation so I am not sure what death rate you're using but the one I hear getting thrown around in the media is often around three percent and that is wildly inflated, probably by a factor of around ten.

John Ionnadis' study from Stanford puts it around 0.12% although the Stanford research team acknowledge their sample wasn't random as it was recruited from volunteers who answered Facebook ads. And the specificity of the test, who knows.

But lots of research puts it around 0.5% or less.

Stanford study:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2

Random middle of the road analysis of the diamond princess numbers compared to the Chinese numbers, using age-adjusted regression analysis.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2

Since I haven't been following the discussion, I don't know whose side I'm taking here but lots of people genuinely think the mortality rate is like three percent or more and it's definitely not. The number of infections is wildly underreported, not because of a conspiracy, but because there just isn't widespread serological testing being done and most infections are so minor, people don't even think to check into it, let alone try to get a coronavirus test.
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Thanks. Very interesting analysis. If you go to page 106 on thread there is link to data I was referring too. The Covid 19 total death mortality is shown in graph with comparisons of countries. The 3 data sources are John Hopkins, WHO and ECDC. This is what we should be basing our decisions on, and Canada is doing a great job keeping deaths low.

Looking at what you posted....Statistical speaking I wonder what data would look like using random sampling as opposed to selection on Facebook. You may find it is not as accurate as with Facebook as your boxing in one specific demographic of the population. As you know in statistics random sampling is always better. Thanks for posting though.
 
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If you quote CNN or MSNBC it is just as bad as Fox News. So I wouldn't single them out, just on your own side of the political spectrum. And death percentages stated are inflated (right now around 6% is common to hear). That only takes tested cases. Are you trying to tell me every single covid case has been found and tested Jerrod? Preliminary antibody tests shows numbers 20-50x the amount recorded. Yes, preliminary, but even say it is half of that...point is amount of people that get covid and then pass away is much lower than you hear watching....CNN...or MSNBC...or any news station.
 
SerengetiGuide said:
If you quote CNN or MSNBC it is just as bad as Fox News. So I wouldn't single them out, just on your own side of the political spectrum. And death percentages stated are inflated (right now around 6% is common to hear). That only takes tested cases. Are you trying to tell me every single covid case has been found and tested Jerrod? Preliminary antibody tests shows numbers 20-50x the amount recorded. Yes, preliminary, but even say it is half of that...point is amount of people that get covid and then pass away is much lower than you hear watching....CNN...or MSNBC...or any news station.
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Can you post links to the studies?

I am 100% in agreement the mortality rate is lower than reported, and likely falls under 1%...but the stats on those serology tests have been a bit suspect.

Not sure which ones you've been reviewing, New York is doing a semi decent one. California is did some not so decent ones. The California studies fell within the realm of statistical uncertainty (that is, the test positives could all have been because of random chance).

Links?
 
SerengetiGuide said:
If you quote CNN or MSNBC it is just as bad as Fox News. So I wouldn't single them out, just on your own side of the political spectrum. And death percentages stated are inflated (right now around 6% is common to hear). That only takes tested cases. Are you trying to tell me every single covid case has been found and tested Jerrod? Preliminary antibody tests shows numbers 20-50x the amount recorded. Yes, preliminary, but even say it is half of that...point is amount of people that get covid and then pass away is much lower than you hear watching....CNN...or MSNBC...or any news station.
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Is that chart on page 106 I posted on death mortality from Covid 19 for countries fairly accurate. Yes or No?

I would also like to see your links to the studies your referencing above as well.
 
Can I ask simple question. Isn't a simple metric like total fatality due to Covid 19 over time more useful? 7 day rolling averages work well for this kind of data.

I am trying to understand what the end goal is with arguing the numbers are overinflated. What are trying to achieve here?
 
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If the number of deaths per cases is
Overinflated then perhaps the heath care experts are putting in to strict of measures and can ease things more. Tho I don’t think they are using that as a metric I think they Look at hospitalization and the trend vs hospital capacity. It’s a question of morality, what are the acceptable losses what is to much what is too little.

It’s the same for parks, yes looks like it’s very low risk but it’s still a risk. If one person goes to a park gets it then spreads it and people die is that acceptable? And is that acceptable for an activity that’s not essential? Or
Perhaps it’s acceptable because that person made the choice to go to the park?

I have no clue on how to answer Thoes questions it’s morality.

Closing down while hard Atlest you could say well we’re doing it to save lives.

Opening up is harder, you don’t have the moral high ground,

I think from what I’ve been able to tell in media is the general plan is to gradually open up
And as long as hospitals can deal with the cases and deaths then. It’s okay. Is that bar tho the right one? That it’s okay to have people dying from covid as long as our medical system
Can handle it?
 
Time to take a break and just get out people.

We had a discussion as a family last night and well, enough is enough. Like my oldest son said last night you can’t hide for ever, sooner or later life goes on. We are getting together with the grandkids this weekend. The kids plan on coming over and spending a couple days with us. We will still be taking certain precautions keeping things cleaned and wiped down but it’s time.
This is our family decision may not be right for all but it’s one we’ve made.
Best of luck all on this great warm weekend, get out get some sun shine enjoy life, don’t be held hostage by fear mongers.
 
Interesting stuff coming out of Quebec today on what the total infection rate is for Ontario and Quebec.
Short answer is take the confirmed case number and multiply by 12 for Quebec and take the total confirmed case for Ontario and multiply by 18.

Taking it with a grain of salt is recommended because this does not rely on random tests for antibodies as that would be the gold standard. This type of testing should be starting soon here in BC and across Canada. Nevertheless it's a starting point that may be useful as we start to open things up.

May 1, 2020
MONTREAL -- Researchers at a Montreal university are estimating that the prevalence of the COVID-19 virus in Canada is much higher than what is being reported.

In Ontario and Quebec alone, economists at l’Université de Montréal (UdeM) are saying nearly half a million people have the virus – which is about 14 times higher than the official number.

The researchers say differences in testing across different provinces have added to uncertainty surrounding the true number of cases in the country. Quebec had nearly 9,000 more cases than Ontario on April 22, but the researchers pointed out that Quebec has been much more aggressive with its testing.

https://montreal.ctvnews.ca/covid-1...-than-we-think-montreal-researchers-1.4920269

Link to the report.
http://www.cireqmontreal.com/wp-content/uploads/cahiers/08-2020-cah.pdf
 
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