fishin_magician
Well-Known Member
I pulled this off the net...it's a long read...but may as well read up now... some bad news...some good.
2011 SALMON STOCK OUTLOOK
Since 2002, Pacific & Yukon Region, Stock Assessment staff have provided a categorical outlook for the next year’s salmon status. The Outlook is intended to provide an objective and consistent context within which to initiate fisheries planning. In particular, it provides a preliminary indication of salmon production and associated fishing opportunities by geographic area and species (a stock group). The Conservation Units covered by each species/stock grouping are listed in Appendix 1.
For each stock group, a status outlook is provided on a categorical scale of 1 to 4 (table below). The category reflects the current interpretation of available quantitative and qualitative information, including pre-season forecasts if available, and the opinion of DFO Area stock assessment staff. Where management targets for stocks have not been formally described, interim targets were either based on historical return levels or, if necessary, opinion of local staff. The Department is currently proceeding on defining methods to determine benchmarks of status under the Wild Salmon Policy and will be consulting on these over the next year.
Status categories may have consequences to fisheries where a stock group is caught directly or incidentally. In the context of this outlook the probable fishery consequences associated with each of the four status categories are identified in the table. Stock groups forecast in category “2” are considered “sensitive” and fisheries should be planned to reduce impacts on these groups.
Status Category Category Definition Criteria Fishery Consequences
1 Stock of concern Stock is (or is forecast to be) less than 25% of target or is declining rapidly. Directed fisheries are unlikely and there may be a requirement to avoid indirect catch of the stock.
2 Low Stock is (or is forecast to be) well below target or below target and declining. Directed fisheries are uncertain and likely to be small if permitted. Allocation policy will determine harvest opportunities.
3 Near Target Stock is (or is forecast to be) within 25% of target and stable or increasing. Directed fisheries subject to allocation policy.
4 Abundant Stock is (or is forecast to be) well above target. Directed fisheries subject to allocation policy.
It is important to note that the fishery consequences implied by any of the status categories do not include interactions with other stocks. Consequently, conservation requirements for stocks in status categories 1 and 2 may limit fishing opportunities for stock groups for which there are no concerns. Where possible the comments associated with each stock identify such potential constraints. A range of status categories indicates significant geographic variation in status within the stock group and fisheries may be shaped in response to that variation.
This 2011 outlook should be regarded as an early scan of salmon production, as very preliminary information, and is subject to change as more information becomes available. The outlook will be periodically up-dated as statistical forecasts and assessments are completed and reviewed.
Summary of Pacific Salmon Species/Stock groups for 2011
A total of 93 species/stock groups were considered and status categorized for 80 (Yukon information is pending for 13 groups). Five groups were data deficient (ND), and one pink group was not applicable (NA). Twenty-eight (28) stock groups are likely to be at or above target abundance (category 3, 4, 3/4), while 21 are expected to be of some conservation concern (category 1, 2, 1/2). The remaining 18 stock groups had mixed status levels (1/4, 2/3, 2/4). Overall, the outlook for 2011 is similar to 2010: 8 stock groups improved in status, while 2 declined in status (Okanagan and Nass sockeye). Please note that assessments for southern BC chum and coho salmon are incomplete, forecasts are not available at this time and these data will be revised later.
2011 SALMON STOCK OUTLOOK
Since 2002, Pacific & Yukon Region, Stock Assessment staff have provided a categorical outlook for the next year’s salmon status. The Outlook is intended to provide an objective and consistent context within which to initiate fisheries planning. In particular, it provides a preliminary indication of salmon production and associated fishing opportunities by geographic area and species (a stock group). The Conservation Units covered by each species/stock grouping are listed in Appendix 1.
For each stock group, a status outlook is provided on a categorical scale of 1 to 4 (table below). The category reflects the current interpretation of available quantitative and qualitative information, including pre-season forecasts if available, and the opinion of DFO Area stock assessment staff. Where management targets for stocks have not been formally described, interim targets were either based on historical return levels or, if necessary, opinion of local staff. The Department is currently proceeding on defining methods to determine benchmarks of status under the Wild Salmon Policy and will be consulting on these over the next year.
Status categories may have consequences to fisheries where a stock group is caught directly or incidentally. In the context of this outlook the probable fishery consequences associated with each of the four status categories are identified in the table. Stock groups forecast in category “2” are considered “sensitive” and fisheries should be planned to reduce impacts on these groups.
Status Category Category Definition Criteria Fishery Consequences
1 Stock of concern Stock is (or is forecast to be) less than 25% of target or is declining rapidly. Directed fisheries are unlikely and there may be a requirement to avoid indirect catch of the stock.
2 Low Stock is (or is forecast to be) well below target or below target and declining. Directed fisheries are uncertain and likely to be small if permitted. Allocation policy will determine harvest opportunities.
3 Near Target Stock is (or is forecast to be) within 25% of target and stable or increasing. Directed fisheries subject to allocation policy.
4 Abundant Stock is (or is forecast to be) well above target. Directed fisheries subject to allocation policy.
It is important to note that the fishery consequences implied by any of the status categories do not include interactions with other stocks. Consequently, conservation requirements for stocks in status categories 1 and 2 may limit fishing opportunities for stock groups for which there are no concerns. Where possible the comments associated with each stock identify such potential constraints. A range of status categories indicates significant geographic variation in status within the stock group and fisheries may be shaped in response to that variation.
This 2011 outlook should be regarded as an early scan of salmon production, as very preliminary information, and is subject to change as more information becomes available. The outlook will be periodically up-dated as statistical forecasts and assessments are completed and reviewed.
Summary of Pacific Salmon Species/Stock groups for 2011
A total of 93 species/stock groups were considered and status categorized for 80 (Yukon information is pending for 13 groups). Five groups were data deficient (ND), and one pink group was not applicable (NA). Twenty-eight (28) stock groups are likely to be at or above target abundance (category 3, 4, 3/4), while 21 are expected to be of some conservation concern (category 1, 2, 1/2). The remaining 18 stock groups had mixed status levels (1/4, 2/3, 2/4). Overall, the outlook for 2011 is similar to 2010: 8 stock groups improved in status, while 2 declined in status (Okanagan and Nass sockeye). Please note that assessments for southern BC chum and coho salmon are incomplete, forecasts are not available at this time and these data will be revised later.