2011 DFO Forecasts... here's looking ahead.

fishin_magician

Well-Known Member
I pulled this off the net...it's a long read...but may as well read up now... some bad news...some good.

2011 SALMON STOCK OUTLOOK

Since 2002, Pacific & Yukon Region, Stock Assessment staff have provided a categorical outlook for the next year’s salmon status. The Outlook is intended to provide an objective and consistent context within which to initiate fisheries planning. In particular, it provides a preliminary indication of salmon production and associated fishing opportunities by geographic area and species (a stock group). The Conservation Units covered by each species/stock grouping are listed in Appendix 1.

For each stock group, a status outlook is provided on a categorical scale of 1 to 4 (table below). The category reflects the current interpretation of available quantitative and qualitative information, including pre-season forecasts if available, and the opinion of DFO Area stock assessment staff. Where management targets for stocks have not been formally described, interim targets were either based on historical return levels or, if necessary, opinion of local staff. The Department is currently proceeding on defining methods to determine benchmarks of status under the Wild Salmon Policy and will be consulting on these over the next year.

Status categories may have consequences to fisheries where a stock group is caught directly or incidentally. In the context of this outlook the probable fishery consequences associated with each of the four status categories are identified in the table. Stock groups forecast in category “2” are considered “sensitive” and fisheries should be planned to reduce impacts on these groups.


Status Category Category Definition Criteria Fishery Consequences
1 Stock of concern Stock is (or is forecast to be) less than 25% of target or is declining rapidly. Directed fisheries are unlikely and there may be a requirement to avoid indirect catch of the stock.
2 Low Stock is (or is forecast to be) well below target or below target and declining. Directed fisheries are uncertain and likely to be small if permitted. Allocation policy will determine harvest opportunities.
3 Near Target Stock is (or is forecast to be) within 25% of target and stable or increasing. Directed fisheries subject to allocation policy.

4 Abundant Stock is (or is forecast to be) well above target. Directed fisheries subject to allocation policy.

It is important to note that the fishery consequences implied by any of the status categories do not include interactions with other stocks. Consequently, conservation requirements for stocks in status categories 1 and 2 may limit fishing opportunities for stock groups for which there are no concerns. Where possible the comments associated with each stock identify such potential constraints. A range of status categories indicates significant geographic variation in status within the stock group and fisheries may be shaped in response to that variation.

This 2011 outlook should be regarded as an early scan of salmon production, as very preliminary information, and is subject to change as more information becomes available. The outlook will be periodically up-dated as statistical forecasts and assessments are completed and reviewed.
Summary of Pacific Salmon Species/Stock groups for 2011

A total of 93 species/stock groups were considered and status categorized for 80 (Yukon information is pending for 13 groups). Five groups were data deficient (ND), and one pink group was not applicable (NA). Twenty-eight (28) stock groups are likely to be at or above target abundance (category 3, 4, 3/4), while 21 are expected to be of some conservation concern (category 1, 2, 1/2). The remaining 18 stock groups had mixed status levels (1/4, 2/3, 2/4). Overall, the outlook for 2011 is similar to 2010: 8 stock groups improved in status, while 2 declined in status (Okanagan and Nass sockeye). Please note that assessments for southern BC chum and coho salmon are incomplete, forecasts are not available at this time and these data will be revised later.
 
Species/Stock 2011
Outlook status Comments ( 2010 Outlook status has been retained for reference)
Sockeye
1. Okanagan 2 Production of late winter sockeye fry in Osoyoos Lake was estimated at roughly 1 million pre-smolts. Recent smolt-to-adult survival has been highly variable fluctuating between a high of almost 11% in the 2000 sea-entry year to a low of 3% in the 2004 sea-entry year coinciding with either anomalously cold or anomalously warm ocean years. The 2009 sea entry year was close to the all year average for SST so a mid-range smolt-to-adult survival of 5% is expected. This supports a very preliminary forecast that 50,000 Okanagan sockeye adults will return to Wells Dam in 2011, substantially lower than returns in recent years and below the Canadian escapement objective of roughly 60,000 adult sockeye at Wells. An actual forecast will be produced later in the year in collaboration with CRITFC group in Washington State. (2010 Outlook was 3)
Fraser Sockeye Overview ·1 Fraser Sockeye 2011 forecasts assume that long term average productivity will persist through to 2011. Forecasts will be available later in the year.
Currently, however, without leading indicators for Fraser Sockeye productivity and with recent years highly variable productivity (very low stock productivity associated with 2009 returns and generally above average stock productivity associated with the 2010 returns), it is possible that the 2011 returns will fall at either the low or high ends of the forecasted probability distribution.
2. Early Stuart
(CU: Takla-Trembleur-Early Stuart)
1 Below average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle return average of 170,000 (1953-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement (2,400 effective female spawners: EFS) was well below this stock’s cycle average escapement (29,000 EFS). Productivity (recruits-per-effective female spawner: R/EFS) in recent years, including the 2010 return year, has also been below average.
(2010 outlook status was 1).
3. Early Summer – North Thompson
(CU: Kamloops-ES) 3 Raft: Above average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle return average of 20,600 (1953-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Raft (8,100 EFS) was four times greater than the cycle average (2,000 EFS).
Fennell: Average to above average returns are expected for 2011 relative to the cycle return average of 33,400 (1972-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Fennell (6,800 EFS) was above the cycle average (4,900 EFS).
(For Fennell and Raft combined, the 2010 outlook status was 3).
4. Early Summer South Thompson
(CU: Shuswap-ES) 3 Scotch: Above average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 18,500 (1984-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Scotch (4,800 EFS) was greater than the cycle average (3,000 EFS).
Seymour: Below average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle return average of 163,000 (1953-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Seymour (5,900 EFS) was below the cycle average (21,000 EFS).
(For Scotch and Seymour combined, the 2010 outlook status was 3).
5. Early Summer – Mid/Upper Fraser
(CUs: Anderson-ES; Francois-ES; Bowron-ES) 2
Gates: Below average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 24,400 (1973-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Gates (1,100 EFS) was below the cycle average (2,900 EFS).
Nadina: Below average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 86,700 (1978-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Nadina (1,000 EFS) was below the cycle average (13,500 EFS).
Bowron: Below average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 79,200 (1953-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Bowron (1,100 EFS) was below the cycle average (9,100 EFS) and productivity has been particularly low in recent years.
(For Gates, Nadina and Bowron combined, the 2010 outlook status was 2).
6. Early Summer – Lower Fraser
(CU: Pitt-ES; Chilliwack-ES; Nahatlach-ES) 4 Pitt: Above average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the average of 70,500 (1953-2009). The brood year escapement for Pitt age-5 (19,900 EFS) and age-4 (21,300 EFS) was above average (13,500 EFS); Pitt has a greater proportion of age-5 recruits (~70%) relative to age-4 recruits. Return data are not available for the remaining two sites in this stock group (Chilliwack Lake/Dolly Varden Creek and Nahatlatch Lake/River); only escapements can be compared to time series averages. Chilliwack Lake/Dolly Varden Creek brood year escapement in 2007 (1,071 EFS) was below the recent time series average (6,900 EFS) across all cycles; the time series for Dolly Varden Creek only commences in 2000. Nahatlatch Lake/River brood year escapement (2,021 EFS) was similar to the cycle average (2,061 EFS). (2010 outlook status was 3).
7. Summer – Chilko
(CUs: Chilko-S; Chilko-ES; Taseko-ES) 4 Average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 1,600,000 (1953-2009). The number of outmigrating smolts in the 2007 brood year (2009 outmigration year) (25.2 million sub2 smolts) was above average (19.6 million) for Chilko. The brood year escapement for Taseko (886 EFS) was below the cycle average (3,300 EFS). (2010 outlook status was 4).
8. Summer – Late Stuart
(CUs: Takla-Trembleur-S; Stuart-S) 2 Below average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 85,600 (1953-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Late Stuart (4,100 EFS) was below the cycle average (10,600 EFS). (2010 outlook status was 2).
9. Summer – Nechako
(CU: Fraser-S) 3 Below average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 594,300 (1953-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Stellako (19,600 EFS) was below the cycle average (57,400 EFS). (2010 outlook status was 3).
10. Summer – Quesnel
(CUs: Quesnel-S; McKinley-S) 3 Above average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 152,700 (1953-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Quesnel (33,800 EFS) was above the cycle average (29,300 EFS). (2010 outlook status was 3).
11. Fall – Cultus
(CU: Cultus-L) 1/2 Below average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 86,300 (1953-2009). Juvenile production of 340,147 smolts (80% hatchery and 20% wild) was below the cycle average (1.2 million smolts) and productivity has been low in recent years. Wild outlook 1, hatchery outlook 2. (2010 outlook status was 1/2).
12. Fall – Portage
(CU: Seton-L) 3 Below average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 26,600 (1958-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Portage (800 EFS) was below the cycle average (2,500 EFS). (2010 outlook status was 3).
13. Fall – South Thompson
(CU: Shuswap-L) 4 Below average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 1.4 million (1953-2007). The 2007 brood year escapement for Late Shuswap (32,000 EFS) was below the cycle average (191,400 EFS). (2010 outlook status was 4).
14. Fall – Birkenhead
(CU: Lillooet-L) 3 Average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 376,100 (1953-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Birkenhead (54,000 EFS) was similar to the cycle average (43,000 EFS). (2010 outlook status was 3).
15. Fall – Lower Fraser
CUs: Harrison (U/S)-L; Harrison (D/S)-L; Lower Fraser River (River-Type); Widgeon (River-Type) 3 Weaver (including miscellaneous Harrison Lake-rearing stocks): Average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 209,300 (1971-2009). The 2007 brood year escapement for Weaver (15,800 EFS) was similar to the cycle average (18,000 EFS).
Harrison: Above average returns are expected in 2010 relative to the cycle average of 71,400 (1953-2009). Escapement for Harrison was 57,400 EFS in the 2007 brood year (age-4 recruits in 2011) and 4,400 EFS in the 2008 brood year (age-3 recruits in 2011) and these brood years are, respectively, above and below the long term average (EFS). Productivity for Harrison has increased in recent years.
For the remaining two sites in this stock group (Widgeon Creek and Big Silver Creek), return data are not available, instead escapements only are compared to time series averages. Widgeon Creek brood year escapement (65 EFS) was below the cycle average (300 EFS). Big Silver Creek brood year escapement (2,461 EFS) was above the cycle average (624 EFS). (2010 outlook status was 3).
16. Somass 3 Very preliminary evaluation of available data indicates exceptional survival of 2006 brood (2008 ocean entry year), suggesting large age 5 component in 2011. Expect near average return from the 2007 brood. Overall average to above average return albeit with significant uncertainty based on data to November 1. Quantitative forecast will be produced in February 2011. (2010 outlook status was 3).
17. Henderson 2
Low brood year spawner levels with exceptional survival of 2008 ocean entry year resulted in a good return in 2010. It is assumed at this time that the age 4 component dominated the return in 2010. This suggests a good age 5 return, but high uncertainty in return of younger age classes. Outlook status 2 may be conservative but is based on high uncertainty. (2010 Outlook Status was 2)
18. WCVI-Other 1/ 2 Assessment data are not available to forecast others systems. However, Hobiton, Kennedy and smaller sockeye CU’s such as Jantzen Lake are generally depressed. (2010 Outlook Status was 1/2).
 
19. Area 11-13 1 / 2 Survival conditions for sockeye stocks in this area appear improved for the2010 return. Preliminary information from Nimpkish River has shown a strong return likely 3-4 times the long term average and well above the contributing parental brood years. Other monitored systems such as Heydon Creek and Quatse River demonstrated similar strength in returns. Heydon Creek sockeye returns were 2 times the parental brood returns. Quatse River sockeye escapement was the largest recorded since an intensive monitoring program began in 2006. This improved survival was also apparent in the pink and coho returns in 2009 which out-migrated in 2008, the same year as most of these sockeye stocks, indicating productive marine conditions. Brood year escapements were low for most of the sockeye stocks that will contribute to the 2011 return. It is still early in assessing the outmigration conditions the sockeye encountered in 2009 and whether or not that will equate to another strong return in 2011. Returns of pink and coho in 2010 are showing some improvement in returns but not at the level encountered in 2009, indicating outmigration condition were favorable in 2009 but not as favorable as 2008. Based on the weakness of the brood years our expectations for 2011 continue to be low with some possible continued improving trend in marine survival. (2010 outlook status was the same 1/2).
20. Sakinaw 1 29 sockeye (27 hatchery origin, 2 wild origin) were enumerated in late July 2010, the return from the 2008 smolt production of approximately 12,000 hatchery and 200 wild origin smolts. This is a substantial increase in marine survival over previous years. The 2009 smolt production which is the first main group from the Captive Brood Program, was 62,000 and we expect 50 adults to escape in 2011. This stock essentially exists at Rosewall and Ouilette Hatcheries (captive brood). (2010 Outlook status: 1)
21. Area 7-10 1 / 2 Returns are expected to be low. Area 9 and 10 returns in 2010 were better than recent years, but brood year escapements for 2011 returns were very low. Sockeye returns to Areas 7 and 8 in general continue to be depressed (2010 Outlook status: 1/2)
22. Coastal 3/6 2 / 4 Status is uncertain. Very limited assessment data for evaluation. (2010) Outlook status: 2/4).
23. Babine Lake Enhanced 4 Average abundance forecast for age-4 sockeye based on 2010 jack returns. Very poor age-5 return expected based on age-4 returns in 2010. (2010 Outlook status: 3)
24. Skeena Wild 1 / 4 Strong returns of some middle and lower Skeena sockeye stocks. Babine River sockeye escapement continues to be poor. Generally expect good survival for sockeye that went to sea in 2008 (returning as 5 year olds this year). The survival for sockeye that went to sea in 2009 (returning as 4 year olds this year) is very uncertain. (2010 Outlook status: 1/4)
25. Nass 1 / 4 Below average returns are expected. Concern for stock status of some non-Meziadin sockeye. (2010 Outlook status: 2/4).
26. QCI 2 / 4 Status uncertain for some systems, limited assessment work. (2010 Outlook status: 2/4).
27. Alsek Information pending. ( 2010 Outlook Status was 2)
28. Stikine-wild Information pending. ((2010 Outlook Status was 3)
29. Taku-Wild Information pending. (2010 Outlook Status was 3)
 
Chinook*
30. Early spring – upper & mid-Fraser, North Thompson 1 Continued poor marine survival has resulted in continued poor to very poor escapements. 2010 was the fourth successive year where total aggregate recruitment has failed to replace the spawners. Populations of concern continue to include Cottonwood, and Chilako rivers, although escapements improved to better than brood on Westroad and Upper Chilcotin. There is no exploitation rate indicator stock for this group. (2010 Outlook status: 1)
31.Late summer – South Thompson 3/4 Aggregate escapements in 2010 were on average, above brood year escapements in 2006. Record escapements occurred at Adams (~10,000) and Lower Shuswap (~80,000).Continued good marine conditions are expected in 2011. Indicator stock is Lower Shuswap (2010 Outlook status: 3/4)
32. Spring – upper & mid-Fraser, North Thompson 1 Continued poor marine survival has resulted in continued poor to very poor escapements. 2010 was the fourth successive year where total aggregate recruitment failed to replace the spawners. There is no exploitation rate indicator stock for this group. (2010 Outlook status: 1)
33. Summer – upper & mid-Fraser, North Thompson 1 Continued poor marine survival has resulted in continued poor to very poor escapements for most systems, although Nechako and Cariboo exceeded parental escapements. Of particular concern was Clearwater River (1102). There is no exploitation rate indicator stock for this group. (2010 Outlook status: 1)
34. Spring – lower Thompson 1 Escapements for some stocks improved in 2010, however others including Spius and Coldwater failed to make brood, even with the restricted fishery. Expectations for 2011 are for continued very poor abundamce due to the depressed parental escapements in 2007. Exploitation rate indicator for this group is Nicola River. (2010 Outlook status: 1)
35. Fall – lower Fraser natural 2 /3 Average returns expected in 2011. 2010 adult escapement work at Harrison is underway, with preliminary escapement estimates available in January. Formal forecast will be available in mid winter. (2010 Outlook status: 2)
36. Fall – lower Fraser hatchery 2/3 Although there are significant hatchery releases of Harrison fall-run chinook stock into the Harrison & Stave Rivers, lower Fraser River fall-run hatchery chinook consists mainly of Chilliwack Hatchery releases. 2010 adult spawning escapement assessment at Chilliwack is currently underway. Average returns expected in 2011 Forecasts will be prepared for March 2011 release. (2010 Outlook status: 2/3)
37. Early spring – lower Fraser 1/2 The preliminary estimate of Birkenhead River escapement improved in 2010, and was similar to brood year (2005) escapement of 1425 adults. The parental brood for the 2011 return was also strong however without an indicator stock for this stock group, freshwater and marine survival trends remain unclear. (2010 Outlook status:1/2)
38. Summer – lower Fraser 1/2 Expectations for abundance levels for 2011 are similar to those seen in 2010, but very little is known about the productivity of these small populations. Maria Slough escapement work in 2010 is not yet complete, but indications are for an escapement similar to recent years. Big Silver escapement estimates have not yet been finalized but observations indicate another poor year. The small size of these populations increases their vulnerability. (2010 Outlook status: 1/2)
39. WCVI-hatchery 2/3 2010 returns to the Somass were significantly below average, mainly due to lower than expected age 4 returns, which suggests low age 5 return in 2011. Subsequent broods may benefit from ocean entry conditions in 2008 and 2009, although returns in 2010 did not reflect this to the extent expected. Based on limited data available at this time expect improved return in 2011 relative to 2010 but likely still below average to near average. Forecast will be available in March 2011. (2010 Outlook Status: 2/3)
40. WCVI-wild 1 Escapements in recent years were well below target for wild WCVI origin chinook, with some variation between CUs in NWVI and SWVI. In NWVI there are indications of moderate improvements, this trend is not being observed in SWVI. Although final escapement estimates and age composition data are unavailable, expectations are for continued low returns in 2011. (2010 Outlook Status: 1)
41. Johnstone Strait area including mainland inlets 2/3 Preliminary 2010 returns to the Quinsam River hatchery indicator are average, similar to 2009. Escapement monitoring is ongoing and preliminary information suggests a return of approximately 5,500 to 6,000 Chinook to the Campbell/Quinsam River system. Data is sparse for most of the Mainland Inlet Chinook stocks, but most Chinook populations surveyed are well below historic abundances. (Outlook is similar to 2010 with wild stocks at low level (2) and hatchery stocks likely near target (3)).
42. Georgia Strait Fall (wild and small hatchery operations) 1 Spawner levels are still well below goal but appear to be improving from historic lows in 2009. The return in 2010 was better than expected, likely due to improved survival from ocean entry year 2008 as well as other rebuilding actions. Cowichan jack return in 2010 was one of the highest in recent years, suggesting continued improvement in 2011. Returns to Chemainus River are still low. For Nanaimo, a slight improving trend is likely to continue in 2011. (2010 Outlook Status: 1)
43. Georgia Strait Fall (large hatchery operations) 2 Returns in 2010 to rivers with major hatcheries (Big Qualicum, Little Qualicum and Puntledge) are similar to last year’s (2009) returns. These last two years have higher escapements than previous years. (2010 Outlook Status:2)
44. Georgia Strait Spring and Summer 2 2010 returns to Nanaimo River (spring and summer) are similar to near term averages and returns to Puntledge (summer) hatchery are below last year’s return, both are below target escapements. Rebuilding efforts are continuing. (2010 Outlook Status: 2)
45. Area 8 3/4 Dean River and Bella Coola returns are expected to be average. (2010 Outlook Status: 3/4).
46. Area 9-10 2/3 Wannock River Chinook returns are expected to be average. The spring-run stocks including the Owikeno tributary stocks and Chuckwalla/Kilbella are expected to be below average as brood year escapements were poor. (2010 Outlook Status: 2/3).
47. Coastal Areas 3 to 6 2/3 Stocks are generally depressed and variable and this pattern is expected to continue. Poor quality assessments. (2010 Outlook Status: 2/3).
48. Nass 3/4 Average return expected (pending detailed review of the 2010 return age structure).
(2010 Outlook Status: 3/4).
49. QCI 3/4 The Yakoun chinook stock appears stable at relatively high levels. (2010 Outlook Status: 3/4).
50. Skeena 3/4 Variable ocean survivals for Skeena Chinook in recent years make the outlook uncertain. Average returns similar to recent years are anticipated. (2010 Outlook Status: 3/4).
51. Alsek Information pending. (2010 Outlook Status was 2/3).
52. Stikine Information pending. ( 2010 Outlook Status was 2).
53. Taku Information pending. ( 2010 Outlook Status was 3).
54. Yukon Information pending. (2010 Outlook Status was 2 / 3).

Coho*
55. Mid/upper-Fraser 1 2010 escapement surveys are currently underway and it is too soon to tell if escapements will be greater than those of the parental brood year (2007). Rebuilding will continue to be affected by marine survival, which may be improving slightly. Parental brood escapements in 2007 were fair. Sustained improvements in marine survival will be required to improve status. (2010 Outlook status: 1)
56. Thompson 1 2010 escapement surveys are currently underway and it is too soon to tell if escapements will be greater than those of the parental brood year (2007). Rebuilding will continue to be affected by marine survival, which may be improving slightly. Parental brood escapements in 2007 were fair. Sustained improvements in marine survival will be required to improve status. Forecast will be available in March 2011. (2010 Outlook status: 1)
57. Lower Fraser 1 / 2 2010 escapement surveys are currently underway and it is too soon to tell if escapements will be greater than those of the parental brood year (2007). Rebuilding will continue to be affected by marine survival, which may be improving slightly. Parental brood escapements in 2007 were fair. Sustained improvements in marine survival will be required to improve status. (2010 Outlook status: 1/2)
58. WCVI 3 2010 returns into the Stamp River were well below average. Coho jack returns were near average in 2010 suggesting near average return of adults in 2011. Forecast will be available in March 2011. (2010 Outlook Status: 2)
59. Area-12 2 / 3 It is early in the monitoring of coho in this area. Extensive monitoring of key streams (Keogh) in the area is still ongoing but preliminary data suggest returns are showing some improvement but not at the level encountered in 2009.
Expectations for 2011 are tempered by the extremely depressed brood return in 2008, just above average Keogh smolt production in 2010 (indicator), and possible lower marine survival due to warming conditions during the spring and summer of 2010. If marine conditions remain comparable to the 2008 and 2009 out-migration years, we could anticipate similar returns of coho to the area. Expectations are for returns similar to the last 3 years but are highly uncertain. (2010Outlook Status: 2/3)
 
60. Area-13 North 2 It is early in the monitoring of returns for these stocks but indications are similar to Area 12 with larger than anticipated returns likely attributed to improved marine conditions during the 2009 out migration. It is uncertain if improved conditions continued for the 2010 (brood 2008) out-migration year which will make up the 2011 return. Stocks will likely remain depressed mainly due to the low numbers of spawners in the 2008 brood year, whether condition have improved or not.. (2010 Outlook Status: 2).
61. Georgia Strait 1/2 The 2009 marine survivals ranged from 0.4% to 1.3% for hatchery stocks and 2.8% - 3.8% for wild stocks. Marine survival rates for 2010 returns are not available. The 2011 expectation is for continuing low returns similar to last year. Forecast will be available in March 2011. (2010 Outlook Status: 1/2)
62. Area-7-10 3/4 2007 and 2008 brood year escapements were generally low. Survivals were relatively good for the 2009 and 2010 after poor returns in 2006 to 2008. Returns are uncertain and depend on the survivals of the juveniles to sea in 2010. (2010 Outlook Status was 2/4)
63. Area 5/6 3/4 Better survivals in 2009 and 2010 returns compared to relatively poor survivals 2006 through 2008. Returns are uncertain and depend on the survivals of the juveniles to sea in 2010. (2010 Outlook Status was 2/4).
64. Area-3 3/4 Strong return is expected, but depends on the survivals of the juveniles to sea in 2010. (2010 Outlook Status was 3/4).
65. QCI-E (Area 2E) 3/4 Assessments limited to two populations since 2002 (Tlell weir and Deena intensive escapement surveys). (2010 Outlook Status was 3/4).
66. QCI-N (Area 1) ND No recent assessments. There is no change in the outlook status from 2010
67. QCI-W (Area 2W) ND No recent assessments. There is no change in the outlook status from 2010.
68. Skeena 3/4 Returns are uncertain and depend on the survivals of the juveniles to sea in 2010. Outlook for lower Skeena tributaries is less certain, based on poor quality assessments. (2010 Outlook Status was 3/4).
69. Skeena – high Interior 2/3 Returns are uncertain and depend on the survivals of the juveniles to sea in 2010.
(2010 Outlook Status: 2/3).
70. Alsek Information pending (2010 Outlook Status was 2/3)
71. Stikine Information pending (2010 Outlook Status was 3)
72. Taku Information pending (2009 Outlook Status was 3)
73. Yukon ND Little is known about the stock status within Canadian portions of the Yukon River drainage. Harvest data from the U.S. portion of the drainage indicates spawning abundance decreased since 1984-91 but has recently been increasing. The general sense in Alaska is that recent exploitation is low and has been influenced by conservation actions to protect co-migrating fall chum particularly since 1998.

Pink*
74. Fraser – Odd
(CU: Fraser River) 4 Above average returns are expected in 2011 relative to the cycle average of 12.3 million (1961-2009). The estimated abundance of out-migrating fry from the 2009 return year (1.06 billion) was greater than the long term cycle average of 376 million (1961-2007). The most recent spawning escapement program occurred in 2001; subsequent escapement estimates are based on final in-season run-size estimates minus catch.
(2009 Outlook Status: 4; 2010 Outlook Status: n/a (relative to the odd numbered years, insignificant abundance of pink return to the Fraser River in even numbered years)).
75. Squamish - Odd ND No qualitative assessment information is available. (2009 Outlook status: ND)
76. WCVI-Odd ND No quantitative assessment information is available.(2009 Outlook status: ND)
77. Area-11/13- Odd 2/3 Even year returns in 2010 continued to show a distinction in productivity between the northern and southern portions of the area. Returns of pink to the northern portions demonstrated some minor improvements over the extremely depressed brood return in 2008 stabilizing a declining trend since 2004. Stocks in the southern portion continue to show an improving trend for the even cycle line

The odd year cycle line of pink salmon have continued to demonstrate an improving trend over the last few generations for all stocks in the area. The strong returns in 2009 indicated improved marine conditions attributing to better survivals for the fry that out-migrated in 2008. Even though returns to the spawning grounds in 2009 were strong, significant rain events in November had a large negative impact on the deposited eggs. This was evident in downstream monitoring at both Glendale and Quinsam Rivers. Expectation for 2011 are low to near target based on the strong parental brood return in 2009, the likelihood of reduced freshwater survival due to the flooding events in 2009 and the indication of lower productivity in the marine waters during the 2010 out migration time period. Historically, pink returns to this area have been highly variable and expectations are highly uncertain. (2009 outlook status was 2/3).
78. Georgia Strait-west 2/3 Preliminary information suggests returns in 2010 are much higher than average. Seapen returns in 2010 were excellent in Nanaimo and Cowichan. Outlook is for highly variable returns, (natural returns low, seapen returns average to good). (2010 Outlook Status: 2/3)
79. Georgia Strait – east 2 Assessment information on pinks in this area is limited. Enumeration at Lang Creek fence was much higher than average and amongst the highest estimate on record. The expectation is for low returns with the exception of seapen returns which may experience higher survivals. (2009 Outlook Status:2)
80. Area-7/10 Odd 3/4 2009 brood year escapements were generally good. Above average returns are expected. (2009 outlook status was 3).
81. North Coast Areas-3/6 Odd 3/4 2009 brood year escapements were generally good. Above average returns are expected. (2009 outlook status was 3/4).
82. QCI- Odd NA Off cycle year.
 
Chum
83. Fraser River
(CU’s: Fraser Canyon and Lower Fraser) 2 Quantitative forecasts are not prepared for Fraser River Chums (catch by stock and escapement information is limited). Fraser Chum escapement has been trending downward over the last 12 years (1998-2009). The 2009 escapement was estimated at 0.6M (preliminary); the escapement goal for Fraser Chum is 0.8 M. An estimate of the 2010 escapement is not yet available.
(2010 Outlook status: 2/3)
84. WCVI 3 2010 chum returns were very poor across WCVI stocks. Return expectations for 2011 are for some improvement, likely near average. The 2007 brood will be the main contribution in 2011. The production from this brood will be influenced by relatively low hatchery releases in Nitinat but also relatively productive ocean conditions in 2008. (2009 Outlook Status was 2 / 3)
85. Johnstone Strait area and mainland inlets (Area-11-13) 2/3 Returns in 2010 appear to be as anticipated, well below average for the area. This low chum productivity is likely driven by the poor marine conditions encountered by the outmigrating chum fry in 2007. The low marine survival encounter by these chum in the 2007 (2010 return) out migration years was also evident in subsequent returns of coho (2008), pink (2008), and sockeye (2009) salmon. Marine conditions improved for the 2008 outmigration demonstrated by strong recovery of pink and coho stocks in 2009 as well as sockeye returns in 2010. The main year class of chum for the 2011 return also outmigrated in 2008 when condition appear to have been extremely favorable to salmon survival.

Expectations for 2011 are low to near target based on the below average parental brood abundance of the 2007 return, the indications of improved marine survival of the contributing outmigration year of 2008 and the high variability in chum returns. Summer chum stocks in 2007were mainly average to below average throughout the area and if survivals improve may show average abundance again in 2011. (Expectation in 2010 were near target:3)
86. Georgia Strait 3 Brood year (2007) escapements were below average. Survival rates appear average to low. Preliminary 2010 returns are projecting to be lower than the pre-season forecast for all Strait of Georgia chum stocks. For 2011 a below average return is expected, however, chum forecasts remain highly uncertain. (2010 Outlook Status:3)
87. Coastal Areas 5/6 1/4 Very poor chum returns in recent years. Kitimat enhanced return strength uncertain; depends on ocean survivals which have been very poor in recent years. (2010 Outlook Status was 1/4)
88. QCI 2/3 Variable brood year escapements may result in local surpluses. (2010 Outlook Status was: 2/ 3).
89. Skeena-Nass 1/2 Very poor returns expected. Brood year escapements were relatively poor. Recent survivals have been very poor. (2010 Outlook Status was 1/2).
90. Area-7-10 2/4 Brood year strength was very poor in Areas 6 and 7 and average in Area 8. Survivals have been poor in recent years. (2010 Outlook Status:3).
91. Yukon 2/3 Information pending. (2010 Outlook Status: 2/3)
92. Porcupine (Yukon) 3 Information pending. (2010 Outlook Status was 3)
93. Taku 2 Information pending. (2010 Outlook Status was 2)
 
Can you reformat that please?


:D
 
There seems to be a trend that the farther south you go, the worst it gets...mainly from around brooks peninsula south on west coast and campbell river/comox south on the inside...could this be fish farms or just urbanization...or maybe a combination of both.
 
IMHO this is just DFO looking into a crystal ball with a tiny bit of common sense and past trends thrown in. Their predictions are like horoscopes, either stating the obvious, or so vague they can be interpreted various ways. Seems like a waste of time and energy to me. They should spend more resources collecting site specific data (while encouraging sporties to collect/submit more info too) and less time making questionable global predictions. This is like a 'not so accurate' version of the farmers almanac for salmon. Unfortunately, they base their "management" decisions on this stuff whether it is accurate/works or not. There's my rant for the day.
 
One thing I think is interesting is that the 2009 pink returns were record breaking...with their 2 year life cycle, and chinooks 4 yr life cycle...could this years Chinook returns be amazing because of this apparent great ocean survival in that year???
 
Could but not necessarily. Timing is everything. Pink salmon and chinook salmon have different saltwater entry times and it could happen that while one species misses the plankton bloom and starves while the other might catch it full on and thrives.
 
Could but not necessarily. Timing is everything. Pink salmon and chinook salmon have different saltwater entry times and it could happen that while one species misses the plankton bloom and starves while the other might catch it full on and thrives.

Ya, but I've crossed my fingers, swung a dead chicken around my head in a voodoo ritual, bought a rabbits foot, prayed at a buddist temple in Tabet, jumped over every crack in every sidewalk and poured an entire bottle of Jack Daniels over my outboard for luck , so it must be a banner season in front of us. (and people say I do nothing for our sport! LOL!)
 
OK R.K. but you missed the most important part of the voodoo ritual that being sticking pins in a Gail Shea doll. LOL.
H.E.H.


WOW! Great idea for a fund raiser for our cause. Gail Shae voodoo dolls. Oh wait, maybe we should wait until after this upcoming election and see who we get stuck with and make appropriate doll.
 
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