Springs Rebound

I dunno. Probably just good returns because Alaska got a late start to their season. Good news though. Lots of spawners hopefully

did they end up being delayed? i'm pretty sure they fished as normal, AS far as i am aware only one of their fisheries got pushed back and it was a very small one where only a 2k are caught, their main fishery went ahead with no delay. My understanding is they fished winter as normal, got halted in the spring missed out on very little and were back fishing.

"A federal appeals panel issued a last-second ruling Wednesday that will allow this summer’s Southeast Alaska troll chinook salmon fishery to open as scheduled July 1 — reversing a lower court ruling that would have kept the $85 million industry off the water."


 
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I dunno. Probably just good returns because Alaska got a late start to their season. Good news though. Lots of spawners hopefully
Not at all. The AK commercial troll fishery started on time and they got all their fish and then some. We are seeing abundance levels in many indicator stocks all around the coast. In particular ocean type chinook seem to be doing very well. There have been rebounding chinook stocks in a number of South Coast rivers over the past few years.
 
Uptick in ocean survival rates. There have always been times when runs have done better than average and worse than average. Is this one of those blips or a trend? Only time will tell.
 

We've not seen favourable conditions like the last 4 years since, 2007-2010. But add the variable ocean conditions that are continuing to increase the ocean-type Chinook productivity, as @searun said, and we get this massive return year, highlighting the changes in oceanic conditions. Time will tell, but the next few years could be tougher for them. Unfortunately, the likely trend is going to shift back towards warmer, El Nino type oceanic conditions. Generally, Chinook do not fare well with these conditions that support calory poor food that is adapted for warmer water. Hopefully, whatever continued shifts in productivity we have seen can help balance the inevitable decrease in productivity caused by the warm water regime we are going to enter. Fingers crossed.
 
Large cool trend in the PDO, which is helpful for salmon. The El Nino we had going on may be shifting to La Nina - heard there was early data NOAA shared recently that things are potentially shifting in Southern Hemisphere - bit early to tell if that will play out, but could be good news combined with PDO trend if that also continues. Haven't seen GOA data on Ocean conditions

 Time series of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1950 to present. Values are summed over May through September. Red bars indicate positive (warm) years; blue bars indicate negative (cool) years.

Figure PDO-01. Time series of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1950 to present. Values are summed over May through September. Red bars indicate positive (warm) years; blue bars indicate negative (cool) years. Credit: NOAA Fisheries
Warm or cool phases can persist for decades. For example, a predominately cool phase occurred from 1947 to 1976 (blue bars in Figure PDO-01), and a 21-year warm phase occurred from 1977 to 1998 (red bars).

These decadal cycles broke down in late 1998 when the PDO entered a cold phase that lasted only five years. This cold phase was followed by a warm phase from 2003 to 2007 and an abrupt change to a cold phase from 2008 to 2013 (with a short interruption during the moderate El Niño in fall/winter 2009-2010). The PDO then switched phases again in 2014 and remained positive until 2018. This period coincided with a large marine heatwave and El Niño that negatively impacted the marine ecosystem in the NE Pacific during that time. Since 2020, the PDO has been consistently negative, reaching the most negative values since 1955 in both 2022 and 2023.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Ocean Niño Index​

The PDO turned negative (cool phase) in January 2020, and has remained strongly negative through 2023, ranking 2023 first as the most negative PDO in the 26-year time series. Despite this, the Ocean Niño Index (ONI), which is the three-month running mean of equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, shifted from negative (cool) to positive (warm) in April. These equatorial SST anomalies have remained above the +0.5 °C threshold for five consecutive months, signaling El Niño conditions. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center predicts El Niño conditions will continue through at least spring 2024.

While these two basin scale indices are not always in phase, the strong separation of these two indices is the first occurrence in the past 26 years. Because the PDO is an index of the spatial SST pattern in the north Pacific, the strongly negative PDO values over the past few years likely reflect the increased SST gradient across the north Pacific, from warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific compared to the eastern Pacific. As a result, this basin-scale index no longer reflects regional sea surface temperatures (which have been warmer than average since July) as well as in previous years.

PDO and ONI from 1996 to 2024 showing Time series of shifts in sign of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; bars) and the Ocean Niño Index (ONI; line) from 1996 to present. Red bars indicate positive (warm) years; blue bars negative (cool) years.

Time series of shifts in sign of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; bars) and the Ocean Niño Index (ONI; line) from 1996 to present. Red bars indicate positive (warm) years; blue bars negative (cool) years. Credit: NOAA Fisheries
This data (below) is for WA to CA ocean conditions, not WCVI or GOA.
Since 1996, the Northwest Fisheries Science Center has monitored the ocean environment off the Washington and Oregon coasts, its interaction with the California Current, and how ocean conditions affect fisheries, focusing on juvenile salmonids.

Indicators are ranked as good, fair or poor. The summer PDO, winter PDO are ranked good. The sea surface temp is ranked fair while, deep temp and deep salinity was ranked poor, and the northern copepod, biological transition and ickthyoplankton are ranked fair, and Chinook catch is ranked poor. The coho catch is ranked good.

Our ocean indices combine a suite of oceanographic data to capture the changing ecosystem. These indicators characterize ocean conditions experienced by juvenile salmon entering the northern California Current. We rate each indicator in terms of whether the relative impact on the marine survival of juvenile salmon is "good," "poor," or "fair”.
 
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