Salmon outlook 2019

Place Your Bets
And so it begins………again. Recent forecasts by our federal fisheries managers are worth a word or two relative to my personal interest in the future of fish that are rapidly fading into oblivion. I try and look at this sort of material in the context of that over-used, under-implemented term, conservation, and how steelhead might be influenced. Here are the Department of Fisheries and Oceans forecasts for the species most preferred by all user groups (i.e. commercial, recreational and First Nations fishers). Don’t be concerned or confused over the numbers in the squares. All that really counts is red and green. Notice also, as usual, there is no mention of that other species that spells nothing but grief for DFO and the two other sectors still on the map (commercial and FN).

Screenshot-2019-03-04-14.02.59.png


Screenshot-2019-03-04-14.04.07.png


Screenshot-2019-03-04-14.03.32.png


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Think Fraser River here. Alarm bells have obviously sounded long and loud for chinook and, to a lesser extent upper basin coho. Sockeye concerns slipped into the background following the cycle return of sockeye to the Adams last fall. Yes, I know the post script on that sockeye return is all bad. Nonetheless, sockeye haven’t captured much of the conservation spotlight in recent times. Chinook conservations is clearly tied to the southern resident orca scenario which has captured the attention of a large enough public to force DFO to pay serious attention. For every angler and pinniped harvest advocate I’m certain there are a thousand orca supporting voters whose collective voice dominates the big picture political arena.

Chums? Well, the scenario there is about the worst possible if you’re a Thompson River steelhead. The fisheries sector holding all the cards today is the First Nations. Their preferred targets are chinook and sockeye, both of which were abundant enough historically to satisfy all their food, social and ceremonial (FSC) needs. With sockeye back in the conservation spotlight because this is not a cyclic abundance year and chinook being the new and dominant entry in the conservation arena, the FN fisheries for those two species will undoubtedly be constrained to a greater degree than ever before. That leaves chums and only chums to satisfy the FN demands, for whatever purposes they might like (FSC fisheries, economic opportunity fisheries, demonstration fisheries, escapement surplus to spawning requirements fisheries). And, what is the forecast for them? Check out the above. All systems go! Rest easy, though, all you steelhead conservation proponents. Just because the (enhanced) chum run timing overlaps the peak of the Thompson steelhead return 100% in both time and space and just because there aren’t more than two hundred of them left and just because almost four dozen scientists recommended that the only immediate way to augment their escapement is to reduce harvest, we needn’t worry because DFO will ask the FN chum roe fishers whose income earning potential will be redirected from chinook and sockeye to chum to “fish selectively”.

I wonder how that Species At Risk Act listing for Interior Fraser Steelhead coming along? Here’s a prediction of my own. We’ll see spin doctoring such as never before when the feds decide not to list those fish and, instead, publish “a plan” to conserve fisheries while managing them to conserve IFS. Isn’t that what got us here?


Bob Hooton
 
Once again Bob calls it the way it actually is!!!!

Weird how almost every stock on the Fraser is getting worse every year.:rolleyes:
 
Place Your Bets
And so it begins………again. Recent forecasts by our federal fisheries managers are worth a word or two relative to my personal interest in the future of fish that are rapidly fading into oblivion. I try and look at this sort of material in the context of that over-used, under-implemented term, conservation, and how steelhead might be influenced. Here are the Department of Fisheries and Oceans forecasts for the species most preferred by all user groups (i.e. commercial, recreational and First Nations fishers). Don’t be concerned or confused over the numbers in the squares. All that really counts is red and green. Notice also, as usual, there is no mention of that other species that spells nothing but grief for DFO and the two other sectors still on the map (commercial and FN).

Screenshot-2019-03-04-14.02.59.png


Screenshot-2019-03-04-14.04.07.png


Screenshot-2019-03-04-14.03.32.png


Screenshot-2019-03-04-14.04.34.png


Think Fraser River here. Alarm bells have obviously sounded long and loud for chinook and, to a lesser extent upper basin coho. Sockeye concerns slipped into the background following the cycle return of sockeye to the Adams last fall. Yes, I know the post script on that sockeye return is all bad. Nonetheless, sockeye haven’t captured much of the conservation spotlight in recent times. Chinook conservations is clearly tied to the southern resident orca scenario which has captured the attention of a large enough public to force DFO to pay serious attention. For every angler and pinniped harvest advocate I’m certain there are a thousand orca supporting voters whose collective voice dominates the big picture political arena.

Chums? Well, the scenario there is about the worst possible if you’re a Thompson River steelhead. The fisheries sector holding all the cards today is the First Nations. Their preferred targets are chinook and sockeye, both of which were abundant enough historically to satisfy all their food, social and ceremonial (FSC) needs. With sockeye back in the conservation spotlight because this is not a cyclic abundance year and chinook being the new and dominant entry in the conservation arena, the FN fisheries for those two species will undoubtedly be constrained to a greater degree than ever before. That leaves chums and only chums to satisfy the FN demands, for whatever purposes they might like (FSC fisheries, economic opportunity fisheries, demonstration fisheries, escapement surplus to spawning requirements fisheries). And, what is the forecast for them? Check out the above. All systems go! Rest easy, though, all you steelhead conservation proponents. Just because the (enhanced) chum run timing overlaps the peak of the Thompson steelhead return 100% in both time and space and just because there aren’t more than two hundred of them left and just because almost four dozen scientists recommended that the only immediate way to augment their escapement is to reduce harvest, we needn’t worry because DFO will ask the FN chum roe fishers whose income earning potential will be redirected from chinook and sockeye to chum to “fish selectively”.

I wonder how that Species At Risk Act listing for Interior Fraser Steelhead coming along? Here’s a prediction of my own. We’ll see spin doctoring such as never before when the feds decide not to list those fish and, instead, publish “a plan” to conserve fisheries while managing them to conserve IFS. Isn’t that what got us here?


Bob Hooton
Well put. I wonder how many steelhead were caught in the 230 ghost gillnets DFO took out of the upper Fraser this year.
 
IMO it is easy to see why every stock is getting worse on the Fraser every year when you have ongoing problems with; logging and mining impacts (loss of cover and sedimentation), industrial and agricultural water consumption and run-off and pollution, decreased river invertebrate numbers, increased fishing pressure (especially unregulated FN net fisheries), increased predation from a growing pinniped populations and birds, habitat destruction from urban growth and gravel removal, over fishing of herring, Alaskan pollock fishery by catch impacts and lastly the manifold impacts of climate changes (i.e. low water levels in rivers, high water temperatures in river and ocean) increased number of warm water predators, decreased levels of plankton and bait fish and the list it goes on...

IF we want to increase Fraser River chinook numbers we need get the Feds and the Prov to work together on a more integrated, holistic entire watershed based approach. No unconnected, piecemeal, one off projects or programs.

IMO the only way that will happen is if WE the people make this a political issue and fast! In the mean time we need to organize as concerned citizens to help Fraser chinook out as much as we can with our money and volunteer hours. If we don't the outcome should be pretty obvious I would think. My 2 bits.
 
IMO it is easy to see why every stock is getting worse on the Fraser every year when you have ongoing problems with; logging and mining impacts (loss of cover and sedimentation), industrial and agricultural water consumption and run-off and pollution, decreased river invertebrate numbers, increased fishing pressure (especially unregulated FN net fisheries), increased predation from a growing pinniped populations and birds, habitat destruction from urban growth and gravel removal, over fishing of herring, Alaskan pollock fishery by catch impacts and lastly the manifold impacts of climate changes (i.e. low water levels in rivers, high water temperatures in river and ocean) increased number of warm water predators, decreased levels of plankton and bait fish and the list it goes on...

IF we want to increase Fraser River chinook numbers we need get the Feds and the Prov to work together on a more integrated, holistic entire watershed based approach. No unconnected, piecemeal, one off projects or programs.

IMO the only way that will happen is if WE the people make this a political issue and fast! In the mean time we need to organize as concerned citizens to help Fraser chinook out as much as we can with our money and volunteer hours. If we don't the outcome should be pretty obvious I would think. My 2 bits.
You forgot fish farms on migration routes. Just sayin. ;-]
 
How accurate are the counts? Garbage in garbage out. It’s an election year, I would expect lots of fishing to be done especially with liberals in big trouble now in polls. It shouldn’t matter right? The counts and the science should dictate all of this, well it doesn’t. Never will. It’s politics folks, I look at everything dfo now through a political lense. When we have businesses out here in BC hanging by a thread and DFO can’t make an announcement that would really put everybody’s mind at ease or at least give us some proper direction and they don’t have the common sense to do that they’re gonna make us wait till the end of March before they make an announcement that’s a joke and when I inquire about the upcoming regulations for Chinook retention as a business owner I get told to join the mailing list no sir I’m no DFO fan anymore. It’s always politics with our government and DFO is no different
 
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