IronNoggin
Well-Known Member
Sockeye:
- Last year the Great Central Lake sockeye stock return was very low, with a total run size of less than 60,000 and an adult escapement of less than 40,000 back to the lake. Therefore the most important goal we are working towards for the 2019 season is to make sure that enough sockeye escape to Great Central Lake so we don't have two years in a row of missing brood stock. Because ages 4 and 5 both contribute some to the return, and because we fish Sprout and GCL together, we can probably weather the one year of missing escapement, but if we have two low GCL years in a row, it will fundamentally change how the Somass fishery is managed for many cycles to come.
Given this concern, if the test boat shows a very low concentration of Great Central fish in the first week of testing (less than 20 percent) all fisheries will be cancelled.
Chinook:
The preseason run size for Alberni Chinook is 130,000. This is a good forecast, but some caution, it is nearly all weighted to 4 year old fish (+80%). Last year there was a large component of 3 year old fish, and that is what they are using to predict a large 4 year old return this year. If there is a problem with that one age class, the run size will drop dramatically, because there are virtually no 3 year olds or 5 year olds in the forecast this year. Therefore the forecast is not as robust or resilient as it would be if the number was coming from a good mixture of year 3,4,5,6 fish.
Coho:
no official run size, hatchery production remains constant, with around 200,000 releases and a survival rate of around 4-5 percent.
Chum:
No official run size yet. Brood year escapements in Barkley Sound were low. I don't expect a good forecast when it comes out.
Round Table Summary from 17 April.
Nog
- Last year the Great Central Lake sockeye stock return was very low, with a total run size of less than 60,000 and an adult escapement of less than 40,000 back to the lake. Therefore the most important goal we are working towards for the 2019 season is to make sure that enough sockeye escape to Great Central Lake so we don't have two years in a row of missing brood stock. Because ages 4 and 5 both contribute some to the return, and because we fish Sprout and GCL together, we can probably weather the one year of missing escapement, but if we have two low GCL years in a row, it will fundamentally change how the Somass fishery is managed for many cycles to come.
Given this concern, if the test boat shows a very low concentration of Great Central fish in the first week of testing (less than 20 percent) all fisheries will be cancelled.
Chinook:
The preseason run size for Alberni Chinook is 130,000. This is a good forecast, but some caution, it is nearly all weighted to 4 year old fish (+80%). Last year there was a large component of 3 year old fish, and that is what they are using to predict a large 4 year old return this year. If there is a problem with that one age class, the run size will drop dramatically, because there are virtually no 3 year olds or 5 year olds in the forecast this year. Therefore the forecast is not as robust or resilient as it would be if the number was coming from a good mixture of year 3,4,5,6 fish.
Coho:
no official run size, hatchery production remains constant, with around 200,000 releases and a survival rate of around 4-5 percent.
Chum:
No official run size yet. Brood year escapements in Barkley Sound were low. I don't expect a good forecast when it comes out.
Round Table Summary from 17 April.
Nog
