Whole in the Water
Well-Known Member
As we all know these temperature changes occur on a regular basis. Take a look at the last paragraph in red though. Sure would be a kinda sad for us on the west side and south end of the island if most of the predicted sockeye run chose to take the eastern side route to get up the Fraser.
April 29, 2014, 6:11 pm
By Seafood.com NEWS
By John Sackton, publisher of Seafood News
El Nino can have a major impact both on fisheries and on agricultural commodities.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), fish that remain in their traditional habitats on the West Coast during El Nino experience reduced growth, reproduction, and survival.
On a global scale, El Nino brings warm water to the coast of South America, suppressing the upwelling that provides for rich anchovy fisheries. The result is that Peru’s anchovy fisheries get severely cut back during El Nino.
Regarding food prices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that an El Nino looms at a time when global supplies of many raw materials already are stretched.
Investors are loading up on commodities futures contracts that would rise in value if global food supplies are crimped further.
“Money managers hold more bullish than bearish bets in all 16 major agricultural futures markets, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data tracked by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The last time that was the case was in June 2011, when prices in many commodities markets were near their highest in decades.”
If an El Nino forms, it is “going to be a very stressful summer,” said Hector Galvan, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago. “It’s just more fuel to the fire for these markets.’”
Without the El Nino, global food prices were expected to remain flat this year. But global food prices could easily climb 15% to record highs in as a little as three months after an El Nino occurs, said John Baffes, a senior economist at the World Bank, who co-wrote the World Bank’s quarterly commodities outlook released Thursday.
Among the food prices most immediately affected are coffee, soybeans and chocolate.
Since anchovy production generally plummets in an El Nino, the combination of poor fishmeal production plus higher soybean prices could mean a cost spike for major aquaculture products like salmon and shrimp. Since 1991, soybean prices have risen about 3.3% on average in El Nino years, but in some years spiking more than 30%.
Regarding fisheries, the major El Nino in 1997 had the following impacts, according to NOAA:
“Warm water tropical fish like mahi mahi, swordfish, and marlin were caught off California and Oregon and Washington.
Albacore and pacific bonito moved north. Also there was a big onshore movement of these tunas, which are more typically found 100 miles offshore.”
NOAA says “A major consequence of an El Niño is the loss of commercially important species where they traditionally occur. A notable example is the movement of the market squid to cooler waters to the north, away from established fisheries in California.
“This phenomenon is also true for many rockfish species that move from nearshore areas to deeper or more northerly and cooler waters. Pacific whiting likewise shift northward from their spawning and feeding areas off California, Oregon, and Washington to the more temperate latitudes centered off Vancouver Island.
“Pacific salmon are also affected by El Niño induced changes to their marine habitat. Increased mortalities and reduced growth have been noted in Pacific salmon populations off Oregon and Washington after previous El Niño events. With respect to the 1997 El Niño, the loss of millions of adult sockeye salmon in the Bering Sea is being attributed to a nearly 10°C increase in summer water temperatures which occurred while the sockeye salmon were migrating back to their natal streams.
“Changes in the migration patterns of adult sockeye salmon have also been recorded for Fraser River (Canada) stocks. During an El Niño event, sockeye salmon use a more northerly approach, entering the Fraser River from the eastern side of Vancouver Island rather than using the more traditional entry through the more southerly Strait of Juan de Fuca.”
If the strong El Nino develops as forecast, fishing plans for the second half of this year may be disrupted.
http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014...ice-inflation/
By Seafood.com NEWS
By John Sackton, publisher of Seafood News
El Nino can have a major impact both on fisheries and on agricultural commodities.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), fish that remain in their traditional habitats on the West Coast during El Nino experience reduced growth, reproduction, and survival.
On a global scale, El Nino brings warm water to the coast of South America, suppressing the upwelling that provides for rich anchovy fisheries. The result is that Peru’s anchovy fisheries get severely cut back during El Nino.
Regarding food prices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that an El Nino looms at a time when global supplies of many raw materials already are stretched.
Investors are loading up on commodities futures contracts that would rise in value if global food supplies are crimped further.
“Money managers hold more bullish than bearish bets in all 16 major agricultural futures markets, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data tracked by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The last time that was the case was in June 2011, when prices in many commodities markets were near their highest in decades.”
If an El Nino forms, it is “going to be a very stressful summer,” said Hector Galvan, a senior market strategist at RJO Futures in Chicago. “It’s just more fuel to the fire for these markets.’”
Without the El Nino, global food prices were expected to remain flat this year. But global food prices could easily climb 15% to record highs in as a little as three months after an El Nino occurs, said John Baffes, a senior economist at the World Bank, who co-wrote the World Bank’s quarterly commodities outlook released Thursday.
Among the food prices most immediately affected are coffee, soybeans and chocolate.
Since anchovy production generally plummets in an El Nino, the combination of poor fishmeal production plus higher soybean prices could mean a cost spike for major aquaculture products like salmon and shrimp. Since 1991, soybean prices have risen about 3.3% on average in El Nino years, but in some years spiking more than 30%.
Regarding fisheries, the major El Nino in 1997 had the following impacts, according to NOAA:
“Warm water tropical fish like mahi mahi, swordfish, and marlin were caught off California and Oregon and Washington.
Albacore and pacific bonito moved north. Also there was a big onshore movement of these tunas, which are more typically found 100 miles offshore.”
NOAA says “A major consequence of an El Niño is the loss of commercially important species where they traditionally occur. A notable example is the movement of the market squid to cooler waters to the north, away from established fisheries in California.
“This phenomenon is also true for many rockfish species that move from nearshore areas to deeper or more northerly and cooler waters. Pacific whiting likewise shift northward from their spawning and feeding areas off California, Oregon, and Washington to the more temperate latitudes centered off Vancouver Island.
“Pacific salmon are also affected by El Niño induced changes to their marine habitat. Increased mortalities and reduced growth have been noted in Pacific salmon populations off Oregon and Washington after previous El Niño events. With respect to the 1997 El Niño, the loss of millions of adult sockeye salmon in the Bering Sea is being attributed to a nearly 10°C increase in summer water temperatures which occurred while the sockeye salmon were migrating back to their natal streams.
“Changes in the migration patterns of adult sockeye salmon have also been recorded for Fraser River (Canada) stocks. During an El Niño event, sockeye salmon use a more northerly approach, entering the Fraser River from the eastern side of Vancouver Island rather than using the more traditional entry through the more southerly Strait of Juan de Fuca.”
If the strong El Nino develops as forecast, fishing plans for the second half of this year may be disrupted.
http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014...ice-inflation/
