El Nino is almost over - good for Salmon

[searun]

Seeing and hearing more positive reports that we are in the midst of seeing a shift in ocean currents and temps - strong evidence that El Nino is on the way out, and we could see the effects of La Nina as early as June. The effects of the shift aren't predicted to really be making a positive effect on ocean conditions until the fall and winter - but surely good news for Salmon!

El Niño is almost over. A similar phenomenon may be next. What is La Niña? - National | Globalnews.ca

Meteorologist are watching for a weather pattern called La Niña, the opposite of the El Niño pattern behind this year's warm winter. La Niña could bring storms or even hurricanes.

globalnews.ca

 

[Stoisy]

This might be a stretch to find any relationship with La Nina... but! For you more seasoned vets, have you ever noticed any general "weather" patterns associated with La Nina vs El Nino conditions? Most of the discussion around the effects (https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html) are associated with winter conditions, but what happens in the summer? Do we see more wind during either event? More rain during the summer?

2007-2008 and 2010-11 were the last "Strong" La Ninas, 2021-2022 was a Moderate - were those abnormally calm? windy? wet?

2015-2016 was a Very Strong El Nino and 2023-2024 was a Strong El Nino - What was everyone's assessment last summer?

2015 was particularly dry and I remember quite a bit of wind.

Any thoughts or observations?

 

[searun]

I have seen a relationship to fish migration and water temps. Especially regarding the diversion rate for chinook coming down the coast in El Nino years. Diversion rate is percentage of fish that take outside WCVI route or inside SoG route. In La Nina years tends to be more going the outside route. In El Nino years, what tends to happen is the water near shore is colder than off shore, which has had the effect of pushing more fish to take the inside route when they hit the top of Vancouver Island. Leads to good fishing in SoG for example, and some of the stocks that we would have seen in larger numbers on WCVI seem to be sticking to the inside where water is colder. Even on WCVI last summer during a strong El Nino, seemed that more fish travelled close to shore line where the water was colder - saved on some fuel costs.

Despite the shift from El Nino to La Nina, it doesn't look like the effects of this change will be evident until the fall with some changes predicted as soon as June. Probably the inside waters will remain cold for some time even after the shift, so its hard to get a sense of how quickly we will see any shifts in fish migration patterns.

 

[trophywife]

insert, what does this mean for tuners?

 

[wildmanyeah]

2007-2011 with cooler water conditions on the coast generally produced better and more consistent tuna fishing for commercial and sporties in Canadian waters. The warm water blob in recent years didn’t move the tuna in any closer, it often just resulted in weak and cluttered temp breaks in the canyons.