Fraser Pinks run size upgraded to 24,000,000

[Big Green Machine]

Since this is in the Saltwater Thread, and about Pinks, don't think there is a reason to go there, keep that in the Freshwater section. Fish are difficult to floss in an Ocean or the tidal section of the Fraser.

 

[GDW]

I've seen people snagging pinks from shore in the salt. ECVI the pinks can come in real tight to shore so get out your oversize treble hooks and yarn if they are not biting. Yank pause, yank pause, yank "Oh! I got a bite!"

 

[Dogbreath]

It still strikes my as odd that the worst disaster we have had was in Japan a few years ago which has grounded there entire fleet.

It strikes me as odd that someone would post a complete falsehood on the internet but it happens as evidenced by you poorly informed post-the idea that Japans entire fishing fleet was put out of commission is complete and utter nonsense.

The Miyagi prefecture fleet (famous for it's Skipjack & Tuna catches) was certainly impacted but there's a helluva lot more to Japan's fleet than the Miyagi boats-as anyone who knows anything about Japan's fishing capability is aware.

 

[Dennis.t]

I've seen people snagging pinks from shore in the salt. ECVI the pinks can come in real tight to shore so get out your oversize treble hooks and yarn if they are not biting. Yank pause, yank pause, yank "Oh! I got a bite!"

BGM may be aware of that, with all the time he spends down at the French creek marina boat launch. Lol...

 

[kanuckle head]

I've seen people snagging pinks from shore in the salt. ECVI the pinks can come in real tight to shore so get out your oversize treble hooks and yarn if they are not biting. Yank pause, yank pause, yank "Oh! I got a bite!"

With that many humpies, no need to straight line an hook up, a .00 percent to the load coming our way = a great day

Pinks are my intro to anyone interested into fishing, and once you get hooked, the addiction starts

Kh

 

[finaddict]

Anyhow back on topic it is great to see this run that size. I really have to ask why this one is flourishing so well. My guess is they didn't get intercepted this time? I think we would be amazed with all our conservation efforts how many fish are scooped up before they get in our waters...

It still strikes my as odd that the worst disaster we have had was in Japan a few years ago which has grounded there entire fleet. Since then we have had more coho, and incredible sockeye run, and now this one...I still wonder if they were getting tagged in international waters.

I know they have the traditional routes...but what if they went to far don't tell me those commercial guys wouldn't scoop them. They would be right in there....

That might not be the case, but the timing is very odd. We always point at USA but I always believe there are others...

If the Japanese fleet was the cause of past destruction of returns, we would not have the disappearance of this year's sockeye run. The theory, while it may have a small effect of BC salmon, is not consistent.

 

[UkeeDreamin]

Disappearance of this year's sockeye run ... did I miss something? The Summer Run sockeye in season forecast endorsed by the PSC panel has been set below the p50 return level - i.e. the pre-season level that has a 50% chance it's bigger and 50% it'll be smaller, and not by much at that (an ultra-conservative 2.8mill vs 3.4mill). The PSC used a 20-year average for the 2013 cycle to forecast this year's return levels on Summer Runs rather than simply using the data from 2009 brood - the worst on record brood year on record for this cycle, (which resulted in the Cohen Commission enquiry and, if folks are still paying attention, the Conservatives have yet to respond to!). Add to this the fact that the test fisheries continued to be strong well past the predicted mid-point run timing, the 3 biggest sets in Areas 12 & 13 happened more than 10-days after the mid-point and those fish were predominantly summer runs. Yet, despite this, the PSC didn't increase the forecast, which easily could have been bumped up to the p50 level in many folks' opinions. So, given the dismal spawning numbers in 2009, this summer run of sockeye was actually really impressive - i.e. showed good smolt to adult recruitment and ocean survival. Was it as big as the glory years for this brood cycle that has supported wide open commercial, FN and sport fisheries over the last few decades? Nope. Are components of this run, like the Quesnel/Horsefly stocks, looking bleak this year thus far? Yep. But it's far from a disappearance.

On that note, I hope folks realize that DFO does no stock assessment, whatsoever, on Fraser pink salmon anymore and the forecast of 16 or 24 million is based solely on test fisheries, which are small sample "blind grabs" and thus have huge error. It would be safe to assume we're looking at 24 million, plus or minus 12 million, the uncertainty is so high. Regardless 16 or 24 million is a **** load of fish!!

Ukee

 

[daddystoy]

So what is the best way to target them? I am thinking you would fish them like you would for sockeye. Lots of flashers, small pink hoochies, short leaders, tight spacing i.e. 6 foot off your downrigger clip and 6 feet apart in depth?

 

[GDW]

What's with attacking high five? It's not a coincidence the coho returns went up after the tsunami.

The sockeye boom of 2010 happened before the tsunami but these last two years of coho are after. And missing sockeye this year? 2009 was the year of the missing sockeye are you surprised that few returning adults in 2009 produced few fish for 2013? That was a foolish statement.

I'll leave the rest to the "expert" on Japan's commercial fleet dog breath can obviously tell us how many coho they have taken each year for the past decade since he knows all about Japan's fishing fleet.

 

[Bait Ban]

On that note, I hope folks realize that DFO does no stock assessment, whatsoever, on Fraser pink salmon anymore and the forecast of 16 or 24 million is based solely on test fisheries, which are small sample "blind grabs" and thus have huge error. It would be safe to assume we're looking at 24 million, plus or minus 12 million, the uncertainty is so high. Regardless 16 or 24 million is a **** load of fish!!

Ukee

DIDSON acoustic counting stations (on the Fraser river) operated by the PSC in Mission and by DFO/Yale First Nations in Yale operate 24/7 through the summer counting all species of Salmonids. Species composition is determined by gillnet sets. Pinks are included in this data and compared to Area 12 test seine fisheries to adjust in season forecasts.

 

[UkeeDreamin]

DIDSON is great until numbers get big then it's just a blob going by. In fact, Pink year's make the DIDSON ineffective to get a guesstimate of the co-migrating stocks of chinook, coho and sockeye, let alone pinks themselves. Gill net sets are the blind grab test fisheries I referred to. I think we're in agreement that this is how the pink run is forecast. Still remains that, in the case of pinks with no supplementary individual stock assessment, that this forecast/assessment methodology is highly inaccurate and thus you have a huge error variance, which can be as bad as +/- 50%. This level of affinity is a strategic call by DFO (read budget decision of value of pink accuracy vs inaccuracy and assessment of consequences). Again, what's the difference between 16 and 24 million? Not much management-wise, thus no motivation to increase accuracy.

Ukee

 

[finaddict]

Disappearance of this year's sockeye run ... did I miss something? The Summer Run sockeye in season forecast endorsed by the PSC panel has been set below the p50 return level - i.e. the pre-season level that has a 50% chance it's bigger and 50% it'll be smaller, and not by much at that (an ultra-conservative 2.8mill vs 3.4mill). The PSC used a 20-year average for the 2013 cycle to forecast this year's return levels on Summer Runs rather than simply using the data from 2009 brood - the worst on record brood year on record for this cycle, (which resulted in the Cohen Commission enquiry and, if folks are still paying attention, the Conservatives have yet to respond to!). Add to this the fact that the test fisheries continued to be strong well past the predicted mid-point run timing, the 3 biggest sets in Areas 12 & 13 happened more than 10-days after the mid-point and those fish were predominantly summer runs. Yet, despite this, the PSC didn't increase the forecast, which easily could have been bumped up to the p50 level in many folks' opinions. So, given the dismal spawning numbers in 2009, this summer run of sockeye was actually really impressive - i.e. showed good smolt to adult recruitment and ocean survival. Was it as big as the glory years for this brood cycle that has supported wide open commercial, FN and sport fisheries over the last few decades? Nope. Are components of this run, like the Quesnel/Horsefly stocks, looking bleak this year thus far? Yep. But it's far from a disappearance.

On that note, I hope folks realize that DFO does no stock assessment, whatsoever, on Fraser pink salmon anymore and the forecast of 16 or 24 million is based solely on test fisheries, which are small sample "blind grabs" and thus have huge error. It would be safe to assume we're looking at 24 million, plus or minus 12 million, the uncertainty is so high. Regardless 16 or 24 million is a **** load of fish!!

Ukee

Sorry, You're right UkeeD, my use of the word "disappearance" was much overstated. "disappointing returns" would have been more correct. And it was not my intention to crap on High five, either. I was merely pointing out what may be a flaw in his theory. If there appeared to be "tone" in my comments, it not my intent. I am well aware of the process for sockeye and pink enumerations and species and strain identifications and have a good understanding of the effect of brood year on returns.

I love the detail of the comments by Ukee and the others in this thread. great information gents. Thanks

 

[trendsetter]

DIDSON is great until numbers get big then it's just a blob going by. In fact, Pink year's make the DIDSON ineffective to get a guesstimate of the co-migrating stocks of chinook, coho and sockeye, let alone pinks themselves. Gill net sets are the blind grab test fisheries I referred to. I think we're in agreement that this is how the pink run is forecast. Still remains that, in the case of pinks with no supplementary individual stock assessment, that this forecast/assessment methodology is highly inaccurate and thus you have a huge error variance, which can be as bad as +/- 50%. This level of affinity is a strategic call by DFO (read budget decision of value of pink accuracy vs inaccuracy and assessment of consequences). Again, what's the difference between 16 and 24 million? Not much management-wise, thus no motivation to increase accuracy.

Ukee

The current test fishery is all seine in the marine areas. They stopped the gillnet tests awhile back to reduce sockeye mortality. These seine tests, in conjuction with the acoustic sonar and river gill net tests are being used for this years forecast.

The seine test sets in area 12 and 13 have shown massive numbers over the past week. As was mentioned, sometimes double the highest historical tests. For example the Area 12 Blinkhorn seine test on August 30th caught 69,780 pinks in only 4 sets. This is an enormous amount of fish per set or any species.

Regardless of the accuracy of the estimate it's going to be a huge pink run this year!

 

[UkeeDreamin]

Regardless of the accuracy of the estimate it's going to be a huge pink run this year! - fully agree with you there! Just pointing out to the lay-folks that test fisheries without stock assessment on indicator stocks is incredibly inaccurate, so a change in the forecast run from 16-24 million simply means big test results, lots of fish coming.

Ukee

 

[Dogbreath]

What's with attacking high five?

There is no attack on anyone-the attack is on what they posted.

It's not a coincidence the coho returns went up after the tsunami.The sockeye boom of 2010 happened before the tsunami but these last two years of coho are after. And missing sockeye this year? 2009 was the year of the missing sockeye are you surprised that few returning adults in 2009 produced few fish for 2013? That was a foolish statement.I'll leave the rest to the "expert" on Japan's commercial fleet dog breath can obviously tell us how many coho they have taken each year for the past decade since he knows all about Japan's fishing fleet.

I leave it to you to provide proof of your crackpot theories-Google is your friend.

 

[trendsetter]

The pink run size has been upgraded again to 26,000,000.

 

[Cuba Libre]

Are pinks still coming past Browns Bay in catchable numbers? I have a friend that is considering heading up if its worthwhile.
Thanks