Fish Early or Just Great Year??

[SerengetiGuide]

Which one do you think it is guys? I'm hoping the latter. But there are some big fish being caught consistently that usually isn't seen till mid-late June...hmmmmm....but it is another cold water year, and if I'm not mistaken this usually makes runs late...so great year? [?]

www.serengetifishingcharters.com

http://www.youtube.com/user/canucksfanatic44

 

[chris73]

If this keeps going like it has for the past few weeks we all get a good appreciation what 15% cutback by Alaskan commercials mean...

 

[IronNoggin]

quote:Originally posted by chris73

If this keeps going like it has for the past few weeks we all get a good appreciation what 15% cutback by Alaskan commercials mean...

LOL! While I am leaning towards the thought that we are likely in for a most excellent season, I do not for a second believe this has anything to do with Alaska's supposed cutback. Do a little homework on this, and you'll soon discover this was simply another sleight of hand on the part of our 'Merican neighbors. The Alaskan management team were kept well informed of developments at the Salmon Treaty negotiations, and just what that would mean for their end of things. The response was quiet, but swift. Catch rates were increased prior to the culmination of the treaty process, just sufficiently so that they could say they were taking a 15% hit. In fact, after the 15% decreed by treaty is removed from the inflated catch figures, Alaskan catch quotas will actually see a slight increase. Don't believe me? Check it out for yourself, the information takes some digging, but is there to find

Good Ol' Uncle Sam never negotiates in what we term "good faith" unless it directly suits his purposes. This is yet another example of the same.

I believe that the ocean's oscillation has once again turned in favor of producing and maintaining larger populations of food items, which in turn increases the ocean survivor-ship of nearly all salmonids. And do think this trend looks good not only for this season, but likely the next couple down the road. Good on ol' Ma Nature to grab the bull by the horns when she was so desperately needed! Uncle Sammy Alaskan however is simply sitting on the sidelines, about to enjoy the bounty as much, or even more than we do!

Regardless, it is developing into a season to remember. If all remains the same, it will truly be one to remember!

Cheers,
Nog

 

[chris73]

No worries, I believe you Nog. And it doesn't surprise me a bit.

 

[Northof49]

I hope it is going to be a banner year.

If I remember correctly it was forecast to be a good coho year with next year being a good year for chinook. If next year is better than this year so far....woohoo!

I'm just hoping that 'Nog isn't "fished out" by the end of July when my son, a friend and I are coming over to avail ourselves of his services.[8D]

 

[Charlie]

"Funny how people hear things and then just start talking about them like they are "proven" without knowing where the actual stats came from." A friend once made that statement to me!


I sure hope you are wrong Nog? [?]

I don't have any problems with anything to do with Alaska, but the idea here is for "US" to rebuild "our" stocks! And "WE" are paying them and Canadian commercials a lot of money to do it!

I don't see how they could have posibly increased the catch rates, or what good it would even do? The Alaskan Harvest is a matter of public record and has been for years. They publish it every year and it is kind of like waving a red flag in "our" faces and yours... kind of saying, "look how many of your fish we are catching, as our stocks have been dying out!

The Pacific Salmon treaty is fairly specific in that area.
http://www.psc.org/pubs/treaty.pdf

If I got everything and can add right, we are spending 71.5 million in U.S and Canada funds going into this program to impove "our" stocks!

That my friend is your and my money, we are talking about! And I for one hope it all goes to our fishery!

This is the Southeast Alaska Harvest for 2008, (in thousands):
http://www.cf.adfg.state.ak.us/geninfo/finfish/salmon/catchval/blusheet/08exvesl.php
Chinook 241,000
Sockeye 422,000
Coho 2,356,000
Pink 15,952,000
Chum 9,022,000

Total 27,992,000,
That is a lot of fish! And the 2009 catch better be in accordance with the treaty or there is going to be a whole lot of p*ssed off Yanks and Canucks... That's "OUR"</u> Tax money and fish! It will be interesting to see what they publish for 2009?


It does sound like a good start to the season! And hopefully years to come!
Cheers

Oh, BTW! I don't think, "Good Ole Uncle Sam had a choice. I think, he was pretty much pressured into it by the good States of Idaho, Washington, Oregon, and California! And Washington is supplementing Canada's evaluation of mark-selective fisheries in Canada? up to 3 million of their tax dollars in support of this!

It's going to be a banner of a year!

 

[wolf]

OH OH here it comes!!! if and when nog replies you have picked on the wrong person this time charlie.If your replying about the buy out ol uncle sam is gifting to the canadiens for the troll fishery well all I can say it is peanuts compared to the overall $$$$ of things!!!!im not trying to pick a debate with you at all "THEY" and who are "THEY" have been saying for the last 4 years the forcasts for springs are /was on the increse and I remeber "THEM" saying last was going to be better than most well it wasnt as we know.

I think we have been blessed with a shot of fish and thats about it there are a lot of locals going out getting nothing off of sooke and vic water so its not that great "YET"

Wolf

 

[bananas]

Does every fish pass by sooke or vic I don't think so,there can still be a great chinook return.Saying that last year the early west coast fishing started out great some of the best i've ever seen but it did not carry on all season so lets hope it does this year,we are off to a unbelivable start almost everywhere.Sooke will pick up soon Wolfy prob june 1st when you get your rig out there.

 

[beemer]

my theory is we are seeing the tail end of the Fraser river run that were the reason for the slot restrictions lifted on May 17. Nature looks like it is 3 weeks "behind" schedule this year thankfully.
I think we are in for a dry June then a huge summer. Hopefully I am wrong about june.

 

[Charlie]

quote:Originally posted by wolf

OH OH here it comes!!! if and when nog replies you have picked on the wrong person this time charlie.If your replying about the buy out ol uncle sam is gifting to the canadiens for the troll fishery well all I can say it is peanuts compared to the overall $$$$ of things!!!!...
Wolf

Nope... NO OH OH! Can't debate something, I don't know about! I know nothing of the commercial fishery! I enjoy learning from an intelligent source!

I will agree Southeast Alaska's harvest of $116.8 million is a lot and "they" didn't come up with any of the $71.5 million. That money is coming from us. But, that's okay, as Obama has all ready got it figured out, if he runs short... He'll just "print" some more money and raise taxes on liquor again!

I just hope he's wrong!

 

[Gooey Bob]

Hmmm...

I thought that the reason the Alaskans have an increased TAC (before the 15% cut) on AABM chinook stocks this year is because under the treaty, all AABM TAC's are based on an abundance index that determines the catch each region is allowed? Hence, AABM or "Aggregate Abundance Based Management".

So...if the abundance in the area is predicted to be up, and therefore the abundance index increases, then the overall TAC increases, right? IMHO this doesn't indicate any funny business on the part of any state or nation, its how the treaty is supposed to work for AABM Chinook.

The fact that the abundance index is up for SE Alaska and the North coast could bode well for a good season. Lets hope so! Not too sure where it sits for WCVI.

Gooey

 

[Charlie]

quote:Originally posted by Gooey Bob

Hmmm...

I thought that the reason the Alaskans have an increased TAC (before the 15% cut) on AABM chinook stocks this year is because under the treaty, all AABM TAC's are based on an abundance index that determines the catch each region is allowed? Hence, AABM or "Aggregate Abundance Based Management".

So...if the abundance in the area is predicted to be up, and therefore the abundance index increases, then the overall TAC increases, right? IMHO this doesn't indicate any funny business on the part of any state or nation, its how the treaty is supposed to work for AABM Chinook.

The fact that the abundance index is up for SE Alaska and the North coast could bode well for a good season. Lets hope so! Not too sure where it sits for WCVI.

Gooey

Hmmmm... from what I read... You are correct??
If the AABM is 1.00
Southeast AK = 127,500
NBC = 130,000
WCVI = 149,700

I am confused??
http://www.psc.org/pubs/treaty.pdf

 

[IronNoggin]

quote:Originally posted by Charlie

"Funny how people hear things and then just start talking about them like they are "proven" without knowing where the actual stats came from." A friend once made that statement to me!

LOL! Nice cast, but you're tossing out the wrong terminal methinks.

quote:I don't have any problems with anything to do with Alaska, but the idea here is for "US" to rebuild "our" stocks! And "WE" are paying them and Canadian commercials a lot of money to do it!

And directed funding IS finding its way into the hands of those affected in Washington, Oregon, including foremost out of work fishers, as well as chandlers, processors and more. And of course, the hatchery production / enhancement is also realizing large</u> increases under this funding envelope. The amount that has already been spent in the 2 US States now approaches 180 million, and in their generosity, a further 30 million has been earmarked for addressing the fall-out from the rollbacks in harvest within Canada.

Ah, but Canada is a different study entirely! With no funding realized (won't be until likely next year) the hawgs are already lined up at the trough, each demanding their own share of the windfall, and yet most can't even indicate where the cuts will even affect their operations. And of course, The Dino kinda likes it that way, as it allows him to quietly dip his snout into the same trough under while the others bicker. Another of course: The Canadian government has indicated firmly that there will be no "matching funds" or top-ups from that end. Bottom line appears that the problems and upsets being faced both by the resource, and those affected by cutbacks here isn't NEARLY the issue it is for the US government. Why else would the Canadians refuse to put one red cent towards the matter, while continuing the disturbing trend of REDUCING hatchery augmentation and enhancement for springs and coho[?]

quote:I don't see how they could have posibly increased the catch rates, or what good it would even do?

And yet this did indeed happen. As Gooey Bob surmised, this was conducted under the guise of an apparent increase in abundance. An increase predicted by Alaska herself, based on notably unreliable computer models (the dangers of relying on this type of projection analysis is addressed in the Treaty itself, with the suggestion a "better" method should be developed) and timed perfectly such that when the 15% cut came, their fleets would actually realize an increase in overall catch numbers. Some may say all fine and dandy. For those with a more discerning eye, such action very much approaches subversion of the Treaty process.

There will of course be in-season monitoring and the AABM numbers subject to change based upon actual findings rather than what resides within the confines of a computer box. But then again, such investigations are to be led and analyzed by the same group that provided the inflated numbers to begin with. Kinda has me and a few of my colleagues wondering just how much they can be trusted to adhere to the design of the management policy. And of course we could be wrong in our assessment, I VERY much hope so! After decades of watching Alaskan operations with a critical eye (both personally and from afar) I believe we have reason to be concerned...

Alaska has a few other related problems to deal with in this regard, not simply related to "directed catch". I don't know if you recall last year's discussion of the chinook (springs) by-catch in their pelagic drag fisheries, but a quick search will likely turn that up. The numbers that were released (of course with questionable reliability due to those fishing having a direct and vested interest in keeping that number smallish) surpass that which would be available for harvest under the table figures you quoted Charlie, where the AABM ratio is One. Lip service has been paid to addressing this matter, but the fleets are still planning to operate much as they did in the past while they "seek a solution".

So, I guess it may be the cynic in me that finds issue with the way the "15% cutbacks" were addressed by the Alaskan management team. While the case can be made (as was the obvious intent) of simply doing business as usual, the sudden increase in abundance (questionable due to the method employed to project that) and timing certainly look to be simply taking steps to insure they, and their fishermen, can publicly save face by bemoaning their loss, while in fact increasing their impacts upon both lower US and Canadian stocks.

The rollback on the West Coast here has been VERY real. Many are now scrambling to depart the recognized sunset industry. In the long run, that will likely benefit lower US stocks, but pays little heed towards those stocks that originate in Canadian waters. They are little fished, especially in the area (WVCI) beyond misdirected terminal fisheries here. Alaska on the other hand takes by far the Lion's Share of Canadian origin chinook, and it very much appears they have solidified their plans to keep that at as high a rate as is possible.
.....................................................................

Even with the political quagmire, the continued twists and turns that generally make your stomach ache, it somewhat appears the stocks may be doing better than expected. This is great news for those of us who chase them here, and of course the US's western seaboard. At least at this juncture that is. So, time to put the majority of that BS on the back burner, get out there and ENJOY! Time will tell if we are actually witnessing a turn around for the positive, or simply an early surge. I too hope that the abundance is increasing as much as I'd like to believe, and that the Alaskan response will be somehow vindicated.

quote:I'm just hoping that 'Nog isn't "fished out" by the end of July when my son, a friend and I are coming over to avail ourselves of his services.[8D]

LOL! Damn tough thing to do for me my Friend! Didn't hit last season until just prior to hunting season. With the observations of late, methinks it will be an excellent year, and that much action rarely gets stale! Methinks we'll be in for some SERIOUS FUN!!

Cheers,
Nog

 

[IronNoggin]

Interesting meeting regarding the PST funding yesterday in Nanaimo. Of course well attended by those who chose NOT to point out their concerns during the treaty process, rather sitting idly by on the sidelines, quite content to watch Area G take ALL</u> the hits. Funny now when there is the possibility of money involved, how each of these groups suddenly have great and pressing concerns...[B)]

As noted previously, it will be amazing if anything good for the affected fleet is realized through this overly convoluted process...

Cheers,
Nog