Climate: LNG in B.C. vs Alberta tarsands

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Only three days left to save The Earth


Prof Penny Sackett, Herald Sun December 04, 2009

We’ve got 5 years to save world says Australia’s chief scientist Professor Penny Sackett

THE planet has just five years to avoid disastrous global warming, says the Federal Government’s chief scientist.
Prof Penny Sackett yesterday urged all Australians to reduce their carbon footprint.

The professor said even if all the world stopped producing carbon dioxide immediately, temperature increases of 1.3C were unavoidable.

Asked to explain data that showed the earth had been cooling in recent years, the trained astrophysicist acknowledged air temperatures had leveled during the La Nina weather pattern, now nearing an end.”

Disastrous Global Warming will be locked in by Thursday I would say. Start packing the bunker.

Penny Sackett was the director of the Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics (a part of ANU) for five years. From 2008 – 2011 she was appointed Chief Scientist of Australia.
 
A few quotes.

2. THE TWO REPORTS ASSUME AND ARGUE THAT THE CLIMATE WARMING FORECASTS BY THE GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS IS HAPPENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAPPEN AND GROW WORSE. Currently these predictions are way off the reality.
3. THERE IS AN IMPLICIT ASSUMPTION IN BOTH REPORTS THAT NATURE IS IN STEADY- STATE, THAT ALL CHANGE IS NEGATIVE AND UNDESIRABLE for all life, including people. This is the opposite of the reality: Environment has always changed. Living things have had to adapt to these changes and many require change.
The IPCC report makes repeated use of the term “irreversible” changes. A species going extinct is irreversible, but little else about the environment is irreversible.
4. THEREPORTSGIVESTHEIMPRESSIONTHATLIVINGTHINGSAREFRAGILEAND RIGID, unable to deal with change. The opposite is to case. Life is persistent, adaptable, adjustable. In particular, the IPCC report for policy makers repeats the assertion of previous IPCC reports that “large fraction of species “face” increase extinction risks.” Overwhelming evidence contradicts this assertion. Models making these forecasts use incorrect assumptions leading to over-estimates of extinction risks. Surprisingly few species became extinct during the past 2.5 million years, a period encompassing several ice ages and
 
Another quote.

THE IPCC REPORT USES THE TERM “CLIMATE CHANGE” WITH TWO MEANINGS: NATURALANDHUMAN-INDUCED. Thesearenotdistinguishedinthetextand therefore confusing. If a statement is assumed to be about natural change, then it is a truism, something people have always known and experienced. If the meaning is taken to be human- caused, then the available data do not support the statements.
 
Quote:
These results indicate that solar activity might have potential influences on the long-term change of Vostok's local climate during the past 11,000 years before modern industry.



Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Volume 122, January 2015, Pages 26–33

Cover image
Correlation between solar activity and the local temperature of Antarctica during the past 11,000 years
X.H. Zhao, , X.S. Feng,
SIGMA Weather Group, State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, Center for Space Science and Applied Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
Received 29 April 2014, Revised 13 November 2014, Accepted 15 November 2014, Available online 20 November 2014

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doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2014.11.004
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Highlights
•
SSN and Vostok temperature (T) had common periodicities in past 11,000 years.
•
The millennial variations of SSN and T had a strong and stable correlation.
•
The millennial variation of SSN led that of T by 30–40 years.
•
Correlations between CO2 and T were neither strong nor stable.
Abstract
The solar impact on the Earth's climate change is a long topic with intense debates. Based on the reconstructed data of solar sunspot number (SSN), the local temperature in Vostok (T), and the atmospheric CO2 concentration data of Dome Concordia, we investigate the periodicities of solar activity, the atmospheric CO2 and local temperature in the inland Antarctica as well as their correlations during the past 11,000 years before AD 1895. We find that the variations of SSN and T have some common periodicities, such as the 208 year (yr), 521 yr, and ~1000 yr cycles. The correlations between SSN and T are strong for some intermittent periodicities. However, the wavelet analysis demonstrates that the relative phase relations between them usually do not hold stable except for the millennium-cycle component. The millennial variation of SSN leads that of T by 30–40 years, and the anti-phase relation between them keeps stable nearly over the whole 11,000 years of the past. As a contrast, the correlations between CO2 and T are neither strong nor stable. These results indicate that solar activity might have potential influences on the long-term change of Vostok's local climate during the past 11,000 years before modern industry.

Keywords
Solar activity; Climate change; Periodicity; Wavelet coherence
Corresponding authors.
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GLG said:
Typical stuff coming out from the denial side where they leave out a sentence to try to slant a science paper to their way of thinking. Why is that? Perhaps because they don't have two pennies to rub together in a logical argument.....
Here is the sentence they left out....


OBD you should check things like this as it makes you look bad when the truth comes out.
I would like to read the paper but it's behind a paywall. But I do find it troubling that you may now think that your side has the answer to global warming and the 40 year lag on sunspot activity. I suspect that your side will now ask the world to wait 40 years to see if your theory is correct......

[_Sf_UIQYc20]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Sf_UIQYc20#t=283
Click to expand...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
1969 Climate Predictions Miss by a Mile

July 3, 2010 at 10:50 am
Czech physicist Lubos Motl reports on an important memo just released by the Richard Nixon library. Written by presidential advisor Daniel Moynihan in 1969 it reveals that the “carbon dioxide problem” was viewed as an environmental concern by some highly placed US government officials way back when.
This memo reads, in part:
It is now pretty clearly agreed that the CO2 content [in the atmosphere] will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter. [bold added]
Motl has drawn up a handy chart that demonstrates just how wide of the mark these predictions were. Rather than increasing by 81 parts per million as the “pretty clearly agreed” experts feared, CO2 rose by only 45 parts per million.
Rather than spiking by 3.9 C (7 degrees F), the actual temperature increase between 1969 and the year 2000 was a practically imperceptible 0.3 C. Which means the experts were off by 1200 percent.
Most embarrassing of all, rather than rising 305 cm (10 feet), sea level increased by a paltry 10 cm (3.9 inches). Which means the experts overestimated that particular danger by 2950 percent.
Moral of the story: no one has ever been able to predict the future. Not even highly educated, highly regarded government advisors.
We humans can tell ourselves no end of scary stories. We can exhaust our financial, institutional, and emotional resources preparing for imaginary dangers based on hypothetical scenarios. Or, as Bob Carter argues persuasively in his important, accessible-to-the-lay-person book Climate: The Counter Consenus, we can take sensible steps to protect ourselves from hazards we’re dead certain to encounter. These are the ones that have always been with us: droughts, landslides, floods, wildfires, earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes, and so forth.
With so many very real challenges to cope with, why do we humans spend so much energy obsessing about hypothetical ones
 
http://www.iisd.org/media/latest-study-rebuts-critics-global-commission-report-climate-and-economics

Latest study rebuts critics of Global Commission Report on climate and economics

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
WINNIPEG—September 19, 2014—Global warming can be kept to agreed levels (below 2C) without hurting economic development. U.S. policy-makers therefore need to redo their math and can afford to bolster their climate change policies to take more aggressive steps to mitigate climate change.

This is according to a newly released independent analysis based on a leading climate-economics model, and rebuts critics of the recently released New Climate Economy report by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate.

The DICE Model Reassessment, developed by Dr. Robert Repetto, an International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and United Nations Foundation senior fellow and Dr. Robert Easton, professor emeritus of applied mathematics at the University of Colorado, analyzed the most prominent climate economics assessment model (DICE), and found that recent estimates used by the U.S. and others prove to be too pessimistic about the ability to balance efforts to fight climate change while maintaining economic growth.

The analysis reveals that if major emitting nations, such as the USA, adopt efficient policies to reduce emissions, world output over the period 2010-2050 would expand at 2.28% percent per year and warming would stabilize below a 2 degree increase. That is virtually the same rate, 2.31% per year, at which GDP would grow if global warming were not kept to safe limits. However, in the more protective scenario, emissions per unit of output would decline more than twice as rapidly.

A subsequent phase of the work is now underway which will apply probability distributions to some of the key variables, to see how incorporating uncertainty in the model (that reflects the uncertainty seen in the climate science and economics literature) will affect the model’s results.

For more information please contact Sumeep Bath, media and communications officer, at sbath@iisd.org or +1 (204) 958 7740.

IISD contributes to sustainable development by advancing policy recommendations on international trade and investment, economic policy, climate change and energy, natural and social capital, and the enabling role of communication technologies in these areas.

http://www.iisd.org/publications/di...summary-and-key-findings-first-phase-analysis

http://www.iisd.org/sites/default/files/publications/DICE_model_reassessment_working_paper.pdf
 
Arctic Sea Ice Extent At A Decadal High Every Day In November
Posted on November 30, 2014 by stevengoddard
Experts like Nobel Prize winner Al Gore predicted that the Arctic would be ice-free in 2014. Instead, we have seen a large increase in the amount of Arctic sea ice – which has been at a 10 year high every day this month.



COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | Danmarks Meteorologiske Institute
 
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