Bristol Bay sockeye returns were huge, nearly 60 million fish. Sproat/Soomas sockeye return is so good that commercial fisheries have just been extended and the rec fishery has been wide open of over a month. Revised estimate for Early Stuart is slightly better than the P50 forecast so I'd say there is hope, yet. Also, if you notice in today's update they are fishing Fraser Sockeye south of the border - both the Treaty Indian fishery, which is open as we speak, and then the commercial fishery, which will open Thursday and Friday.
If there are commercial openings, that means there is exploitable returns above the conservation requirements, which factors in the environmental conditions (i.e. expected in river deaths, lower spawning and incubation success, etc).
With p50 forecasts for Early Summer approaching 1 million and just shy of 5 million for Summer runs, as well as the fact the Fraser didn't exceed 20C during this latest hot spell despite the low flows and now earlier than expected cooler temps and more precip forecast I think there's reason to be cautiously optimistic.
Cheers!
Ukee