I am unsure of the science in todays world. I never said to dispute opposing views, I dispute "science" that has a motive, situated outcome or skips, chooses, picks facts to strengthen a directed outcome. Lots on here lately, just read the pages of Covid stuff. Seams even what one would expect from professionals is incorrect today. There are alternative theories to most discussions now. Hence the reason for the BC grizzly study in the first place. I did and still believe the BC grizzly study you referenced was true, reflective and valid at the time, my days listed were directly looking for the very G Bear we see crossing Johnston Straight, not in bear territory. I also know I removed or helped remove 5 large male grizzly from the mainland 2.5-100km across Johnston straight from Kelsey Bay over a 5 year period, and another few were removed by others I know about. There were 2-3 spring tags and another 2-3 fall tags available annually. Did that reduce males and territory saturation in that specific location they seam to be crossing to Van Isle, I say yes may have, now that we have had years with no male G-Bear removal and lower fish in rivers I do see more bears spreading their range, for food sources or room to be bears. Or maybe it coincidence???Well, certainly management is influenced by politics. No argument there. And the focus applied to science can be politicized, as well. But the science is the science. It has it's caveats as to assumptions and statistical power no matter which "side" is quoting it. All of those are caveats are declared and debated as to the accuracy and applicability of that science past it's assumptions.
So I disagree that one should necessarily dismiss opposing views w/o discussing & debating the science that any "side" is using to promote their narrative out of hand because one disagrees with that narrative. I think both sides can learn something from that debate. In structured decision-making like environmental assessments - it is critical to that process.
As far as the science that I quoted on the Grizzly numbers is admittedly somewhat dated - but is the most current I could find.It is also non-NGO data - it's both industry & government data. In that methodology of extrapolating densities by habitat - there are declarations about the large variability that precludes not only accurate estimates but noticing even fine-scale trends. That has been the critique of the NGOs about those estimates who say they are too high.
Yet even with those "higher" estimates - CDC and COSEWIC (not the NGOs) still listed certain populations of near-coastal & interior grizzlies. So those "higher" numbers might be seen as a "best-case" scenario.
And I don't think I need to convince most posters on this forum that our fish resources have taken quite a hit in the past number of years.
So... I can't see what support or scientific vigour the theory that the habitat is saturated and the extras grizzlies are forced on the Island has. Similar to your other theory that whiteish naïve black bears who have no instinct of danger, Anytime I see a black bear traveling fast - often I see a grizzly about 10min behind it. I think they know the danger. And I am not understanding how that assertion helps the argument for the theories you presented.
It's also been my experience that you see males more in the estuaries - especially early in the season before fish show-up; while the females (especially if they have cubs) try to stay out of the males way and are more interior and upslope. So.. one would expect that males would be closer and more attracted to long swims while the female would chance losing cubs on a long swim and especially when being in male territory. I've got many years - not days - in both black bear and grizzly territory to share.
So - there's some alternative theories to offer for the discussion...
The same thing is happening in northern BC, on a month long hunt we saw few G-Bears years ago, they kept to themselves, now every camp worries, is worried and they are far more plentiful and brazen then they ever were. Nuisance bear reports in BC support a growing population.
HM