All Things COVID-19
- Thread starter Sotally Tober
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Aces
Well-Known Member
I was hoping we would get another month before things started ramping up
tubber
Well-Known Member
18-22 I think for kindergarten if it's a public school. They won't all show up. 30 for the upper grades in high schools.
wildmanyeah
Crew Member
the admin lady on the phone today told us 30 or under
ILHG
Crew Member
I think this is a great read & describes what most people are thinking & where we are heading. Interested to hear what others think?
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/coronavirus-will-never-go-away/614860/
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/08/coronavirus-will-never-go-away/614860/
Dogbreath
Well-Known Member
Well it's good to read something even little positive these days and I can see people dealing this like they deal with influenza.
The sting in the tail is the re-occurrence of symptoms-for instance I was fine/symptom free for 6 months but now have all kinds of **** going on some of it quite alarming.
Pineapple Express
Well-Known Member
What are the two school districts you're describing?
cracked_ribs
Well-Known Member
That seems reasonable to me. I can't imagine any scenario in which we eliminate this; I don't think that was ever realistic and of course the moment we discover reservoirs in the animal kingdom we know it's never going to be eradicated.
This is exactly why I think NZ's approach is a really short term gain... unless they're willing to maintain extremely strict standards for the foreseeable future, sooner or later they'll have similar per capita final death counts to Sweden, say. There's just no way to stop a virus this widespread.
This is also why, in the early stages, I think tighter borders and a more aggressive response could have helped. But it would have had to be nearly global in scale.
Anyway thankfully mortality rates on this thing are pretty low but it's been a big expensive lesson in the risks of a global economy, hasn't it?
I think it just gives the medical community time to learn about it and respond. NZ may ultimately end up with a much lower death rate compared to Sweden as the world's medical community learns to treat and handle this. One would expect better hospital outcomes as this goes on.
cracked_ribs
Well-Known Member
Yeah, that's part of why I think the early response here was insufficiently aggressive: avoid the first wave, figure out treatment options. Turns out we got away with it, which is really the result of it just not being nearly as lethal as some people expected. If any of the early predictions (which to be fair seemed obviously wrong - the Diamond Princess situation alone was pretty illuminating) had been correct and the mortality rate was 3%, we'd have been in rough shape.
But NZ I think have tied themselves to ongoing restrictions that won't work if they try to get out of Park. We'll see, I guess. But unless they keep the country on lockdown until vaccination is widespread I think they're stuck with either facing a surge of cases, or maintaining extremely strict rules that are going to cause their own problems. My suspicion is that their C19 deaths will go a bit under the radar because once the world begins to adjust to the presence of this as a fact of life, there won't be rigorous tracking anymore, and all of the vulnerable people who would have died from it in the first surge will still die from it, just over the course of several years instead of several weeks. Sweden will always have that spike in deaths on the record, but most of those people would have died over the subsequent year or two. The only way to really track this, I suspect, will be to look at monthly all-cause mortality from the past, say, five years, and the next three. If I'm right we'll see a proportional drop in all-cause mortality because the people who were going to die, died in April. But once that stock of extremely vulnerable people is spent, there will be a reduction in all-cause mortality for the next while because everyone else will keep on living and dying at normal rates.
But I think it'll take around 3-5 years to get a good sense of all that.
But NZ I think have tied themselves to ongoing restrictions that won't work if they try to get out of Park. We'll see, I guess. But unless they keep the country on lockdown until vaccination is widespread I think they're stuck with either facing a surge of cases, or maintaining extremely strict rules that are going to cause their own problems. My suspicion is that their C19 deaths will go a bit under the radar because once the world begins to adjust to the presence of this as a fact of life, there won't be rigorous tracking anymore, and all of the vulnerable people who would have died from it in the first surge will still die from it, just over the course of several years instead of several weeks. Sweden will always have that spike in deaths on the record, but most of those people would have died over the subsequent year or two. The only way to really track this, I suspect, will be to look at monthly all-cause mortality from the past, say, five years, and the next three. If I'm right we'll see a proportional drop in all-cause mortality because the people who were going to die, died in April. But once that stock of extremely vulnerable people is spent, there will be a reduction in all-cause mortality for the next while because everyone else will keep on living and dying at normal rates.
But I think it'll take around 3-5 years to get a good sense of all that.
wishiniwasfishin1
Well-Known Member
I don’t think this study by the CDC has been posted yet but take a look. They reviewed the 180,000 plus deaths in the USA that have been attributed to Covid-19. Of them they found only 6% or roughly 9,000 deaths to be from covid alone. The other deaths had an average of 2.6 complicating factors per death. Also most of the 9000 deaths were in very old people.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/...9tOHPGAHWFVO3DfslkJ0KsDEPQpWmPbKtp6EsoVV2Qs1Q
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/...9tOHPGAHWFVO3DfslkJ0KsDEPQpWmPbKtp6EsoVV2Qs1Q
So, what percentage of the population is overweight, has blood pressure problems, is diabetic, has heart problems, is 60 or older, etc etc etc. How many of these people have their conditions under control and are stable and expecting to live another 20 years or more but could be killed by covid? What are the long term implications for those that have had covid and are now recovered? Just how are children affected? We are about to find out as the next 6 months should give plenty of data on that front. Lots of unanswered questions still to be answered. In 10 years we might have answers if they are not bastardized by FOX news, facebook and the like.
Normal death rates in the US are tracked by way of death certificates and have been for decades so the trend is defined very accurately. The numbers currently show about 180,000 deaths in excess of the historic trend. There may be co-morbidity but the increase in deaths is directly attributable to Covid infections; they wouldn't have happened if not for the pandemic.
wildmanyeah
Crew Member
got an email this morning saying after feedback received, class size will not exceed 25 people including teach and support teacher. The first day of school has been delayed for them now till sept 14th and there is going to be 3 days of parent meetings.
cracked_ribs
Well-Known Member
Yes and no...the deaths would all have happened, just not at that time. So the question is this: how much did they get moved up? An hour? A decade?
Ultimately we're all going to die; the question is when. If the dip in all-cause mortality comes next year, we can say that those 180,000 people lost a year of their lives, on average. If the dip comes in October (I'm not saying this is likely, this is just for the sake of argument) then they lost what, 3-6 months of life, on average.
Given that 94% of Americans listed as C19 fatalities had significant co-morbidities, I think the average shortening of lifespan is going to be fairly low. That's not to say it's not unfortunate, but every single person who died was going to die with or without C19, because everyone is going to die. The death rate is a nice stable 100% and has been forever as far as I know, one species of jellyfish excepted.
I'm not making light of the situation...it's just that I think people forget that everyone is running out of time, and the question isn't "will you run out?" it's "when will you run out?" If you die from something, it's not that you wouldn't have died otherwise. It's that you would have died of something else. There's no such thing as saving lives, only delaying deaths. Obviously everyone wants to delay theirs as much as possible, I'm not saying it should be otherwise. I want to live as long as I can and I want people I care about to live as long as they can and fewer potential mechanisms of death is better than more. But the actual human cost of this thing won't be understood until we get a sense of when the dip in all-cause mortality comes. My suspicion is that it will be pretty soon, partly because of BC's fairly detailed numbers which show an average age of something like 85 for fatalities. If the average age were 65, you could say that it was taking 20 years off people's lives, but at 85, it's hard to tell how much exactly, but it can't be much. Again not saying we shouldn't care, just that counting the number of people who are dead in a given time frame only gives you a small part of the story.
Deewar25
Well-Known Member
that isn't a study, its a statement they have had on that site since May and this was just a qanon spin not having a clue how death certificate processing goes. The only thing of significance with it, is it means 6% of the doctors were either too rushed, too lazy, or too dumb to understand how to fill it out - it should be zero. You don't die from covid, just like you don't die from flu or cancer. It is typically the underlying cause of death though - so a 'typical' death cert may be covid (underlying), pneumonia (secondary COD), ARDS (primary COD). Still a covid death, the same way we say someone 'died from cancer'. As it was, covid has been reported as the underlying cause in 92% of all cases.
Deewar25
Well-Known Member
actually, excess deaths are currently 240000, its just states hide covid (either just as pneumonia underlying, which is also essentially impossible), or Symptoms unknown coding which is R00-R99 - there are over 25000 excess uses of that code - ramped up same time as covid.
Deewar25
Well-Known Member
note, i kind of clarified that, but the statement doesn't mean that 94% had co-morbidities in the way you are implying (pre-existing), it just means covid turned into other complications that eventually caused death. Kind of a good read on it here: https://drbartlettpear.com/2020/08/30/covid-19-series-entry-11/
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