Rain City
Crew Member
That's because they share cheerleaders
All Things COVID-19
- Thread starter Sotally Tober
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bMcN
Active Member
The protests were certainly a surge in possible transmission events, but I'm not sure how it compares to, say, a doubling of contact for all 5 million people in BC. Could be a relative drop in the bucket. I don't think you can say that no uptick in infections means all the social distancing was/is unnecessary. We won't know until it's all over.
GLG
Well-Known Member
It's odd that this came up in my twitter feed since you mentioned Texas. Seems that social distancing in the bars didn't work out as expected. Who would have thought. Texas has the capacity in their hospitals to handle all these new cases and if they are young and fit then I would expect them to recover. The next question would be is how much long term damage does this virus do to a young body. That may not show up for many years.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/16/texas-coronavirus-spike-young-adults
GLG
Well-Known Member
Agree about the protests and we may not know until it's all over but we have modelled an increase in our contacts and we have some room to open up. If recall correctly BC had contact down to 28% average during lock down so going to 50 or 60% may work. For me personally I do what Dr. B tells me to do as she is the expert not something I read on the interwebs.
https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/June4_Covid19_ForSplitScreen_V8.pdf
cracked_ribs
Well-Known Member
The protests in BC, specifically, will definitely be a drop in the bucket.
But if this doesn't generate a major uptick in infections:
then by definition gatherings of this sort are not a problem, even when held simultaneously in cities all over the continent, so much of what we are doing is definitely overkill.
cracked_ribs
Well-Known Member
Well, one thing I like is the fact that this problem has shifted from an acute pandemic in which we desperately need to lock everything down to ensure that the medical system doesn't collapse, to a problem where we think maybe there might be a possibility that years down the road this virus will turn out to have caused long term damage or something.
Meanwhile their 7-day rolling average is down to around 20 deaths from 35 a couple of months ago.
As I stated before I am done with all the doom and gloom of what may, could, might happen. NON has materialized. When Dr B was my CAF doc I listened to her, now sorry not following the sheep. How many in hospital? How many new cases? Yes follow all the rules while I go march with 5000 others. There's that do as I say and NOT as I do leadership.What a load of crap. Did BC 's relatively small population spread over our huge Province have nothing to do with infection rates? Why when Canada was so good at following rules are we in the middle of the pack when some did nothing?? Maybe our **** storm is still to come as we were not self immunized as other may have been??
For those who believe all that is being preached by all means, lock yourself away until a vaccine is found, proven and distributed, self isolate until the cows come home, wear a permanent face covering, wash, wash and wash some more, if you are living with a high risk person do what you need to to keep a loved one safe, if you are at risk do what you need to to stay safe.
For the rest of us lets get on with life. From todays trip out seams like most people believe as I do. Had trouble getting a parking spot. Let life commence again. Doomers go self isolate.
HM
For those who believe all that is being preached by all means, lock yourself away until a vaccine is found, proven and distributed, self isolate until the cows come home, wear a permanent face covering, wash, wash and wash some more, if you are living with a high risk person do what you need to to keep a loved one safe, if you are at risk do what you need to to stay safe.
For the rest of us lets get on with life. From todays trip out seams like most people believe as I do. Had trouble getting a parking spot. Let life commence again. Doomers go self isolate.
HM
Aces
Well-Known Member
Yeah you've told us all already. Ok, you're pissed off about your African trip, we all are making sacrifices. Carry on and do whatever you want.
tightlines
Well-Known Member
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.13.20101253v2
This virus poses virtually no risk to everyone under 70. The data has not shifted since the beginning. Over-reaction, over-kill, draconian? It's no longer I think this might be the case. It is abundantly clear that this was a complete government fiasco.
Every graph looks the same in every jurisdiction. A massive spike of deaths as the virus infects and kills the low hanging fruit, and then a flattened curve. BC and Canada hasn't done anything but delay the inevitable. I ask again - What has changed? Does the PHO think the virus went away? They are going to contact trace everyone in stage 3? What an absolute joke. $45 billion dollars per month on the CERB for what? Expensive deferral
This virus poses virtually no risk to everyone under 70. The data has not shifted since the beginning. Over-reaction, over-kill, draconian? It's no longer I think this might be the case. It is abundantly clear that this was a complete government fiasco.
Every graph looks the same in every jurisdiction. A massive spike of deaths as the virus infects and kills the low hanging fruit, and then a flattened curve. BC and Canada hasn't done anything but delay the inevitable. I ask again - What has changed? Does the PHO think the virus went away? They are going to contact trace everyone in stage 3? What an absolute joke. $45 billion dollars per month on the CERB for what? Expensive deferral
ILHG
Crew Member
Not pissed off, my return to Africa has just been delayed, even just added days on the Zambezi fishing. I am not posting in the doom and gloom group, I lost my rose colored glasses as others clearly have, some have not?? Sorry if I don't blindly believe what is being fed and you think I am pissed of for not blindly believing. Obviously fewer and fewer do daily. As posted above by others, maybe full outcome of this is still to be felt? What really amazes me is those that still believe but the people telling, leading you do not, demonstrated by their actions, performances and pics above.
HM
HM
walleyes
Crew Member
It’s always the same group of people as well isn’t it. The situation changes the narrative never does, we are always on the brink of destruction.
I do believe we could be on the eve/brink of destruction. Not Covid as a mankind extinction event, but Covid as a financial ruining event.
HM
bigbruce
Crew Member
Right, HM, do whatever the f**k you want....just stay the hell away from me and anyone else that might might be at risk. Oh wait....that could be anybody. Take a close look at what is happening south of us where legions of folks who seem to feel as you do and are “opening up”. You are one selfish twit! But go ahead steam on...
lazylump
Active Member
Well thankfully you aren’t in charge and most people don’t agree with your opinion. Talked to a doctor the other day about this and I got zero Covid fear mongering from him? Have you actually talked to anyone who has an informed opinion? Bonny Henry knows her stuff , but somehow people like yourself think they know better because they read some stuff on the internet?
You do not have to worry, I will be doing what is allowed, we are allowed to go out now, most things are open, gatherings limits have widened, its getting to be somewhat of a free country again, if you are worried or high risk as I stated above, you can stay locked down until a vaccine is available, self isolating safely for ever if you wish, just in case? We will not cross paths, even if we did there have been no new cases on Van Isle for how many weeks? 12 in hospital in BC? As for your odds of any body is at risk, look them stats up, you may be surprised, don't drive, don't go around bees, or lightening storms, or do any illegal drugs, death odds are much higher for all them after you get Covid, not before. Do you refrain from those more deadly things? Sure hope you were not with our leaders NOT following their rules? Were they selfish twits? Were all the demonstrators selfish twits? Name calling because my views do not comply with YOURs WOW. I never said at any time I was not doing as told, I did state that its time to get back to life. In your world that makes me a selfish twit? Data seams not to reflect all we are being brainwashed into thinking. Sorry I was in CAF for 34 years = Not a sheep. But that's just me and those who were out today following current rules. Your mind we were all selfish twits. In mine, Covid data today does not warrant me from not enjoying living again.
HM
GLG
Well-Known Member
Ever notice that some think that the data supports their views when it doesn't. IFR (infection fatality rate) seems to be one of those numbers that when you see someone use it they never use the number to calculate what it means on the population. Here is the numbers that I have seen as of late. 1.7, 0.79, 0.5 and now one from a lone scientist (red flag) that has a per-print (not peer reviewed) of 0.25. I would sure like to see one of the fellows do the math and give us the numbers of what this means. What are the chances that one of them would post that up? Probably the same chance they think their risk rate is. My guess is .006
If one of them needs that population numbers they can be found here on the far right of the table.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
If one of them needs that population numbers they can be found here on the far right of the table.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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bMcN
Active Member
What do you mean "what it means on the population"? The IFR is the proportion of infected people who die, adjusted for risk factors like age. It's relevant for infected people, not the population. If you have an estimate of the proportion of a population that will be infected you can multiply it by the IFR to get an estimate of the proportion of he population that will die. But estimating the proportion that will be infected seems difficult given all the asymptomatic cases.
P.S. I guess the "lone scientist" you are referring to is John Ionnidis. He has a habit of being provocative, like his paper “Why most published research findings are false”, but he is quite well respected in health research. He seems a little out of step with the rest of the field in this case, but that doesn't mean he's wrong.
GLG
Well-Known Member
I see why you like Texas as they seem to be an anomaly with their death rates per million in the USA.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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