Us vs Canadian marine forecast JDF

[ryanb]

I'm looking at the weather forecast for JDF west entrance. This is the US one:
TUE
W wind 5 to 15 kt becoming NW in the afternoon. Wind waves
2 ft or less. W swell 4 ft at 8 seconds.

TUE NIGHT
W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell
3 ft at 9 seconds.

WED
W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 ft.

THU
W wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 ft

And the Canadian one :
Tuesday:Wind west 10 to 15 knots increasing to west 20 to 30 in the afternoon.
Wednesday:Wind west 20 to 30 knots diminishing to west 10 to 15.
Thursday:Wind west 20 to 30 knots.

Which do you believe? Which is more accurate in your experience. Looking at windyty and another similar app certainly seems the Canadian one seems exaggerated.

 

[Franko Manini]

Honestly, I find the Canadian marine forecast to be a bit overstated. Maybe they are over cautious, but I think it's more likely that they use different data collection models and different algorithms. I know on windyty you can change the models quite easily and the wind forecast is effected in kind.

 

[SpringVelocity]

US Forecast is more reliable for that area at least on central and east it is. The determining factor for me is what currents are doing. Full moon Big Ebb moderate to strong westerly look out.

 

[madshawn]

I work for Coast Guard Radio and all our weather products come from Environment Canada. More often then not I think the wind forecast is overstated. I think EC tends to aid on the side of caution it would seem.

 

[Whole in the Water]

I work for Coast Guard Radio and all our weather products come from Environment Canada. More often then not I think the wind forecast is overstated. I think EC tends to aid on the side of caution it would seem.

X 2, EC is overly cautious especially with wind forecasts in my experience. I think the US based weather forecasts are more accurate as they have more active reporting stations and better overall analysis capabilities.

Harper shut a lot of ours down and Trudeau hasn't re-opened them (doubt he will). Let's hope the Donald doesn't do the same south of the border with all his cuts.

 

[Englishman]

The Environment Canada marine forecast is always very pessimistic for JDF and has the wind building much earlier than they actually do. Usually plenty of gale warnings!! The only way of having an idea of what is actually going to happen off Sooke is the BigWaveDave site.

If I had to rely on the Environment Canada marine site I would rarely go out!!

 

[Birdsnest]

The Canadian forecasting is so bad. If it does forecast good weather it will be three days in advance and then the night before it will change to 15 to 25 kn. Going to hurt some one some day or some one is going to die.

Lets face it. We live in the liability age.

 

[Cuba Libre]

My estimate is that EC is over stated 50% of the time.

 

[Toolguy]

I've been comparing the forecast to the current conditions (winds at Race Rocks) and they haven't been far off. Eg: right now (Thurs at 8:30 am) the forecast reads:

Wind west 20 to 25 knots diminishing to west 15 to 20 early this morning then increasing to west 20 to 25 early this evening. Wind diminishing to west 15 to 20 Friday morning and to west 10 to 15 near noon Friday. Wind increasing to west 15 to 20 Friday afternoon.

The current wind at Race Rocks is 24 knots.

 

[Tugcapitan]

I find EC good most of the time. Knowing how bad it could get helps me prepare a plan for worst case scenario.
When we fish it's different because we're trying to push the envelope in smaller boats. I get the frustration with pessimistic forecasting but for an outfit trying to help people make safe decisions it has to be that way. I'm sure some of you like me have been in a decent blow that was stronger than expected, it can be a nasty surprise.
Juan de Fuca is a big area, if you look at the map of the east entrance, central, west entrance that Canada provides forecasting for, it doesn't cover the whole thing. Like others have said it's best to consult 2 or 3 different sites and compare, and then use your experience to interpolate.
I'd still rather be pleasantly surprised by better conditions than shocked by unexpected ugliness...