Unusual/Rare Swell event

Birdsnest

Birdsnest

Well-Known Member
This Friday a swell is forecast to hit our coast at 1.7 meters @ 26 seconds. This is the first I have ever seen with that high a period!!!! This is a VERY rare event. Should be interesting to watch.
 
I was learning a weather app I got and noticed that in the 7 day forecast, I thought it seemed pretty different from what I'm used too seeing. Let us know if you get too see it.
 
All of the sites I am following are forecasting this event. I find it hard to believe a site called swell watch isn't posting it.

Look at this graph it unbelievable!!!
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_per

a 3 to 4 foot swell at 16 seconds may override a swell of 1.7 at 26 sec as surface clutter and in fact if you were out in a boat(off shore in deep water) and there was no other swells showing you would hardly notice a swell at 1.7 m at 26 secs. Thats just the nature of a ground swell. But when it hits the beach is another story. These swells move faster than other swells and can be very deceiving near the beach where they break. While the wave off shore may only be 1.7 meters in height they can break at a height 3 time greater than the off shore height. This information I have observed many time over the years on swells that are 18 secs at around 1.5 meters. This 26 second thing is a whole other thing. I do not even now what to expect. Its a surfing thing.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The story of the storm from storm surf:

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
A strong storm developed just off Japan Monday AM (1/14) with winds 55-60 kts nestled up along the Japan coast in the storms west quadrant and growing in size as it moved east. Seas were building quickly. Most satellites did not make a good pass over the core of the storm to report wind speeds but the ASCAT satellite confirmed solid 60 kt winds well away from the core with a few barbs to 65 kts. [/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]By evening the storm was expanding quickly and becoming impressive with winds modeled at 65-70 kts (hurricane force) over a small area in the southwest quadrant and seas to 48 ft at 34N 153E (297.5 degs HI/295.6 degs NCal). The ASCAT satellite again reported winds at 60 kts well away from the core of the storm. Interestingly the Jason-1 satellite passed over the west quadrant of the storm at 06Z and reported seas 40.0 ft with a peak reading to 41.7 ft where the model were predicting 46 ft seas. By Tuesday AM (1/15) the storm was most impressive per the models with a solid fetch of 65-70 kt west winds in the storms south quadrant aimed east with seas 61 ft at 38N 163E (305 degs Hi/295.4 degs NCal). By evening the storm is to be moderating some but still impressive with 55-60 kt west winds in it's south quadrant as it lifts northeast with seas 60 ft at 41N 170E (313 degs HI/295.3 degs NCal). On Wednesday AM (1/16) the storm to be fading with winds 50-55 kts over a solid area aimed east. Seas 52 ft at 44N 174E (320 degs HI/299 degs NCal). [/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This is to furthest east this system will migrate. [/FONT][FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]In the evening west winds to be fading from 45-50 kts while the system drifts north with seas fading from 43 ft at 45N 174E (324 degs HI/299.5 degs NCal). 45 kt west winds to hold over a solid area Thurs AM (1/17) drifting north with seas fading from 38 ft at 46N 171E. This system is to be effectively gone in the evening with winds fading fast from 40 kts and seas dropping from 30 ft at 46N 170E. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This storm is developing very close to the projected track espoused by the models for days. If it continues on-track it will be the strongest storm we've seen in 3 years. Most fetch to be aimed due east and given it's far western location would push energy right down the great circle paths to both Hawaii and the US West Coast. And it's position in the far West Pacific (1956-2789 nmiles from HI/2743-3983 nmiles from NCal) will allow ample room for the swell to unwrap as it pushes east. But it's lack of much forward progress will limit virtual fetch and therefore the number of waves per set. And the rather long travel distance will mean long waits between sets, especially for the US West Coast. Still, make no mistake, a storm with 65-70 kt winds and near 60 ft seas over a solid area for 24 hours will not go unrecognized. Solid long period swell should result for the entire Pacific Basin if this system develops as forecast.[/FONT]​
 
1.7 meters at 26 seconds would be a dream day fishing off shore. Change that to 1.7 at 8 seconds and it would be a tad lumpy...but manageable.
 
searun said:
1.7 meters at 26 seconds would be a dream day fishing off shore. Change that to 1.7 at 8 seconds and it would be a tad lumpy...but manageable.
Click to expand...

Ya, the high period swell are good for everyone. Just be careful near the beach. Generally, a high period swell is the best thing most surf spots could get. Its just pure clean energy!!!!
 
Surfers up and down the coast are stoked about this forecast and a big wave event at Mavericks may happen too.

Longer period swells are what surfers live for, believe me.

If the angle is right then places like Sombrio, Jordan River and other Juan de Fuca spots should go off.

With long waits between sets and everyone hyped there is lots of potential for conflict too, which one hopes doesn't happen.

I'm going to check out a few spots myself, just for old times sake.


Take care
 
No kidding, that would be pure fun energy....ever surfed a 27 foot boat on a big swell...almost as much fun as using a surf board. Its fun watching the GPS speed pick up by 5 to 10 miles an hour depending on where you started to surf the wave.
 
I think I will poke around too. Just waiting for the wind forecast to firm up before I decide if it will be Plan A or Plan B.
 
Birdsnest said:
All of the sites I am following are forecasting this event. I find it hard to believe a site called swell watch isn't posting it.

Look at this graph it unbelievable!!!
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=npac_per

a 3 to 4 foot swell at 16 seconds may override a swell of 1.7 at 26 sec as surface clutter and in fact if you were out in a boat(off shore in deep water) and there was no other swells showing you would hardly notice a swell at 1.7 m at 26 secs. Thats just the nature of a ground swell. But when it hits the beach is another story. These swells move faster than other swells and can be very deceiving near the beach where they break. While the wave off shore may only be 1.7 meters in height they can break at a height 3 time greater than the off shore height. This information I have observed many time over the years on swells that are 18 secs at around 1.5 meters. This 26 second thing is a whole other thing. I do not even now what to expect. Its a surfing thing.
Click to expand...
Here's the site I use for swell predictions - http://forecasts.surfingmagazine.com/#place=48.28319289548349_-124.343262_6_1418_period_none_Sat_-1 - I've found it to be a very useful tool for both salmon and tuna fishing. In general, it's pretty darn accurate a few days out, and so-so 4-5 days and not so good on the 7 day out prediction. When it predicts 3 days in a row of small, longer period swells, you can pretty much count on the middle day being a good day for a long tuna run or easy off shore salmon fishing. Right now, it's showing the long period swells coming today with swells of 5-6' at 13-14s, swells of 3-4' @12s midday on Fri. with swells building to 7-8'@18-20s midday on Sat.
 
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