Profit margins.....
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Have-the-Canadian-Tar-Sands-had-their-Day.html
A recent report by research house Wood Mackenzie shows break-even costs for building new steam-driven [in-situ] projects is in the $65 – $70 a barrel range.
Mining developments – the truck and shovel method accounts for a fifth of all projects – need at least $90 – $100 oil.
Existing projects in Alberta can still make money at $45 a barrel.
Existing projects are not threatened, but new projects are. And here's a Globe & Mail report from June 4, 2012.
“Oil sands projects display some of the highest break-evens of all global upstream projects,” the firm said. “The potential for wide and volatile differentials could result in operators delaying or cancelling unsanctioned projects.”
New oil sands mines, for example, require prices of around $80 (U.S.) a barrel to break even, Wood Mackenzie found.
Add an upgrader, the “pre-refinery” that transforms heavy oil into a lighter crude that can be further refined into diesel and gasoline, and the needed break-even rises to above $100.
So-called “in situ” projects, which use wells and underground steam injection to extract oil sands crude, are less vulnerable, with a break even of about $60.
These mining breakeven prices are very high. Right now, WTI crude is trading at about $97/barrel and Brent is trading at about $111/barrel. New mining developments, including an upgrader, have a breakeven of about $100/barrel, which makes the economics very marginal indeed.