Mackerel=Warm Water= El Nino?

[Seafever]

Lots of Mackerel over on the west coast of V.I. this year......which means the water is warmer this year, because they only thrive in warmer ocean water on that side I'm told. Hmmm..I never see Mackerel off ECVI....
So...does this mean we are in for an El Nino condition this year?

 

[Sharphooks]

My first trip to Ucluelet was in 1992----I took a small inflatable out past Amphitrite Lighhouse and started casting a jig.

First five casts---big juicy mackerel. I kept pounding mackerel all morning, then finally got a 12 lb spring and went back in to the camp site.

A mackerel show notwithstanding, everything I've read is a continued prediction of an intensifying La Nina:

From Science Daily:

QUOTE

La Niña, "the diva of drought," is peaking, increasing the odds that the Pacific Northwest will have more stormy weather this winter and spring, while the southwestern and southern United States will be dry.

Sea surface height data from NASA's Jason-1 and -2 satellites show that the milder repeat of last year's strong La Niña has recently intensified, as seen in the latest Jason-2 image of the Pacific Ocean.

UNQUOTE

The severe droughts seem to be part of this. Also, the abnormally windy weather, lightening storms, rain--- they all appear to be associated with cooler temps and a La Nina year.

The sea ice in Alaska was so far south just a few months ago that many boats couldn't fish their customary grounds.

The abundance of mackerel could be good feed conditions, but warming water trend doesn't seem to shake hands with La Nina

 

[Seafever]

SharpHooks:- yes the mackerel have been coming and going off WCVI for years .........I can remember back when they first starting showing up in hordes....to the frustration of many a fisherman in B/Sound and A/Inlet.

One year you could have walked across the Inlet on mackerel..
But then you would get a couple of years when they weren't around much if at all..

Everybody seemed to think it was the water temp that brought them up here...and the warmer the water the more they showed up.
In the same way that the warmer the water off WCVI, the more Pilchard will show up.

If the water temp dropped really cold, the Pilchard would not be so keen to frequent the waters off WCVI..

I heard that Blue sharks don't like water that is too cold either....although it seems they are out there every year though...

Tuna....now there's a specie that is tuned to water temp bigtime. If it's too cold they don't like it.....The further north they range, the warmer the water must be for them..

I haven't been following Tuna reports lately........are they out there in big numbers this year? How far north are they going?



I read an article that the winter water temp is often just on the cusp for survivability of female Pilchard ...

 

[the fog ducker]

its not that bad ,

we only caught a few all week , did not use bait at all , NO need...
my report to follow soon , fishing was great ,
Poett Nooks full of them for the kids to sharpen there skills lol.....

stay outta the inshore areas where the temps are slightly higher , stay off the stinky bait ,
trust me , when ya find the right gear , its NON stop...

fd

 

[Dave H]

Here's a link to an Aussie site that covers the topic well.

Right now it looks a lot like we are heading into El Nino conditions again but it's not a confirmed certainty.

All my old surfing pals are hopeful. LOL

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


Take care.